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Erdogan's Political Challengers Are Getting Tougher – Bloomberg

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For much of 2020, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan relied on foreign-policy adventurism to divert attention from Turkey’s economic crisis and his AK Party’s political travails. His aggressive forays in Libya, Nagorno-Karabakh and the Eastern Mediterranean helped overshadow the political reversals of the previous year, when the AKP lost local elections in major cities — none more embarrassing than that of Erdogan’s old stronghold of Istanbul — and a significant decline in membership.

But the strategy may have reached its limits: Neither investors nor the general public seem to be buying Erdogan’s promise of a new economic era. More generally, the president and his party seem to be losing the confidence of large political constituencies, including urbanites and young conservatives.

Now, with the coronavirus pandemic proving more resilient than expected, and hopes for a smart economic rebound in 2021 crumbling, Turkey’s opposition parties are gunning to regain the initiative. Erdogan may ignore their calls for early general elections — they are scheduled for the summer of 2023 — but he can expect his political rivals to press him every step of the way.

Among those waiting to pounce are Kemal Kilicdaroglu, who heads the main opposition party, the CHP, and its brightest stars, Ekrem Imamoglu and Mansur Yavas, the high-profile mayors of Istanbul and Ankara, respectively. But the opposition’s best chances of bringing Erdogan down may rest on two women from opposite sides of the political spectrum: Meral Aksener, head of the Iyi Party, and Canan Kaftancioglu, the CHP’s Istanbul chief.

The two could hardly be more different. Aksener, 64 is a nationalist and member of Turkey’s political elite, having previously served as interior minister. Known as “Asena” after a mythical Turkish she-wolf, she makes no bones of her desire to replace Erdogan as president, and ran against him in 2018. Kaftancioglu, 48, revels in her image as a “motorcycle-riding, leftist feminist,” and although her views are more radical than most in her own party, she is respected for having orchestrated the AKP’s 2019 humiliation in Istanbul.

Both their parties are keen to capitalize on the space opening up in Turkey’s political center as Erdogan leads his party rightward. This move puts the AKP in a collision course with its coalition partner, the far-right MHP. Iyi, or “Good Party,” represents the challenge from the center-right, and CHP from the center-left.

Aksener has traveled in the opposite direction from Erdogan: She broke away from the MHP to maneuver her way toward the center. Even so, she retains strong nationalist credentials that make her a difficult target for the AKP-MHP combine; they would much prefer her as an ally. But she has flatly turned down calls —“not even if they put a gun to my head” — to return to the MHP fold and join the ruling coalition.

Kaftancioglu, on the other hand, is an easy and frequent target for Erdogan and the pro-AKP media. She is appealing a 10-year sentence on charges, mostly relating to old tweets, of insulting the president, inciting hatred and promoting terrorism. She is also being assailed for allegedly covering up charges of sexual assault against party colleagues.

Her supporters say the ferocity of the attacks only demonstrates the degree to which Erdogan and his allies fear Kaftancioglu and her ability to turn out the vote for the CHP. Nearly a fifth of Turks live in Istanbul, making it crucial to the opposition’s hopes of ending the AKP’s two-decade dominance of Turkish politics.

Defeating Erdogan remains a tall order: Remember, he won in 2018 with nearly 53% of the vote, while the CHP’s Muharrem Ince got less than 31% and Aksener just over 7%. The AKP-MHP alliance won a clear majority in parliament, well ahead of a coalition that included the CHP and Iyi Party.

Turkey’s economic and political landscape has shifted since then, weakening Erdogan and the AKP, but a change to the status quo will still require a strong show of opposition unity. A winning coalition will be hard to pull off without substantial help from the Kurds, but they will be wary of Aksener’s nationalism and are resentful of the CHP’s failure to stand up for Kurdish politicians under attack from the Erdogan government.

Still, Erdogan will enter 2021 facing the strongest opposition of his career at the top of Turkish politics. And the pairing of Aksener and Kaftancioglu represents an unprecedented double threat for the president and his party.

    This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.

    To contact the author of this story:
    Bobby Ghosh at aghosh73@bloomberg.net

    To contact the editor responsible for this story:
    James Gibney at jgibney5@bloomberg.net

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    Review finds no case for formal probe of Beijing’s activities under elections law

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    OTTAWA – The federal agency that investigates election infractions found insufficient evidence to support suggestions Beijing wielded undue influence against the Conservatives in the Vancouver area during the 2021 general election.

    The Commissioner of Canada Elections’ recently completed review of the lingering issue was tabled Tuesday at a federal inquiry into foreign interference.

    The review focused on the unsuccessful campaign of Conservative candidate Kenny Chiu in the riding of Steveston-Richmond East and the party’s larger efforts in the Vancouver area.

    It says the evidence uncovered did not trigger the threshold to initiate a formal investigation under the Canada Elections Act.

    Investigators therefore recommended that the review be concluded.

    A summary of the review results was shared with the Canadian Security Intelligence Service and the RCMP. The review says both agencies indicated the election commissioner’s findings were consistent with their own understanding of the situation.

    During the exercise, the commissioner’s investigators met with Chinese Canadian residents of Chiu’s riding and surrounding ones.

    They were told of an extensive network of Chinese Canadian associations, businesses and media organizations that offers the diaspora a lifestyle that mirrors that of China in many ways.

    “Further, this diaspora has continuing and extensive commercial, social and familial relations with China,” the review says.

    Some interviewees reported that this “has created aspects of a parallel society involving many Chinese Canadians in the Lower Mainland area, which includes concerted support, direction and control by individuals from or involved with China’s Vancouver consulate and the United Front Work Department (UFWD) in China.”

    Investigators were also made aware of members of three Chinese Canadian associations, as well as others, who were alleged to have used their positions to influence the choice of Chinese Canadian voters during the 2021 election in a direction favourable to the interests of Beijing, the review says.

    These efforts were sparked by elements of the Conservative party’s election platform and by actions and statements by Chiu “that were leveraged to bolster claims that both the platform and Chiu were anti-China and were encouraging anti-Chinese discrimination and racism.”

    These messages were amplified through repetition in social media, chat groups and posts, as well as in Chinese in online, print and radio media throughout the Vancouver area.

    Upon examination, the messages “were found to not be in contravention” of the Canada Elections Act, says the review, citing the Supreme Court of Canada’s position that the concept of uninhibited speech permeates all truly democratic societies and institutions.

    The review says the effectiveness of the anti-Conservative, anti-Chiu campaigns was enhanced by circumstances “unique to the Chinese diaspora and the assertive nature of Chinese government interests.”

    It notes the election was prefaced by statements from China’s ambassador to Canada and the Vancouver consul general as well as articles published or broadcast in Beijing-controlled Chinese Canadian media entities.

    “According to Chinese Canadian interview subjects, this invoked a widespread fear amongst electors, described as a fear of retributive measures from Chinese authorities should a (Conservative) government be elected.”

    This included the possibility that Chinese authorities could interfere with travel to and from China, as well as measures being taken against family members or business interests in China, the review says.

    “Several Chinese Canadian interview subjects were of the view that Chinese authorities could exercise such retributive measures, and that this fear was most acute with Chinese Canadian electors from mainland China. One said ‘everybody understands’ the need to only say nice things about China.”

    However, no interview subject was willing to name electors who were directly affected by the anti-Tory campaign, nor community leaders who claimed to speak on a voter’s behalf.

    Several weeks of public inquiry hearings will focus on the capacity of federal agencies to detect, deter and counter foreign meddling.

    In other testimony Tuesday, Conservative MP Garnett Genuis told the inquiry that parliamentarians who were targeted by Chinese hackers could have taken immediate protective steps if they had been informed sooner.

    It emerged earlier this year that in 2021 some MPs and senators faced cyberattacks from the hackers because of their involvement with the Inter-Parliamentary Alliance on China, which pushes for accountability from Beijing.

    In 2022, U.S. authorities apparently informed the Canadian government of the attacks, and it in turn advised parliamentary IT officials — but not individual MPs.

    Genuis, a Canadian co-chair of the inter-parliamentary alliance, told the inquiry Tuesday that it remains mysterious to him why he wasn’t informed about the attacks sooner.

    Liberal MP John McKay, also a Canadian co-chair of the alliance, said there should be a clear protocol for advising parliamentarians of cyberthreats.

    This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 17, 2024.

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    NDP beat Conservatives in federal byelection in Winnipeg

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    WINNIPEG – The federal New Democrats have kept a longtime stronghold in the Elmwood-Transcona riding in Winnipeg.

    The NDP’s Leila Dance won a close battle over Conservative candidate Colin Reynolds, and says the community has spoken in favour of priorities such as health care and the cost of living.

    Elmwood-Transcona has elected a New Democrat in every election except one since the riding was formed in 1988.

    The seat became open after three-term member of Parliament Daniel Blaikie resigned in March to take a job with the Manitoba government.

    A political analyst the NDP is likely relieved to have kept the seat in what has been one of their strongest urban areas.

    Christopher Adams, an adjunct professor of political studies at the University of Manitoba, says NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh worked hard to keep the seat in a tight race.

    “He made a number of visits to Winnipeg, so if they had lost this riding it would have been disastrous for the NDP,” Adams said.

    The strong Conservative showing should put wind in that party’s sails, Adams added, as their percentage of the popular vote in Elmwood-Transcona jumped sharply from the 2021 election.

    “Even though the Conservatives lost this (byelection), they should walk away from it feeling pretty good.”

    Dance told reporters Monday night she wants to focus on issues such as the cost of living while working in Ottawa.

    “We used to be able to buy a cart of groceries for a hundred dollars and now it’s two small bags. That is something that will affect everyone in this riding,” Dance said.

    Liberal candidate Ian MacIntyre placed a distant third,

    This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 16, 2024

    The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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    Trudeau says ‘all sorts of reflections’ for Liberals after loss of second stronghold

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    OTTAWA – Prime Minister Justin Trudeau say the Liberals have “all sorts of reflections” to make after losing a second stronghold in a byelection in Montreal Monday night.

    His comments come as the Liberal cabinet gathers for its first regularly scheduled meeting of the fall sitting of Parliament, which began Monday.

    Trudeau’s Liberals were hopeful they could retain the Montreal riding of LaSalle—Émard—Verdun, but those hopes were dashed after the Bloc Québécois won it in an extremely tight three-way race with the NDP.

    Louis-Philippe Sauvé, an administrator at the Institute for Research in Contemporary Economics, beat Liberal candidate Laura Palestini by less than 250 votes. The NDP finished about 600 votes back of the winner.

    It is the second time in three months that Trudeau’s party lost a stronghold in a byelection. In June, the Conservatives defeated the Liberals narrowly in Toronto-St. Paul’s.

    The Liberals won every seat in Toronto and almost every seat on the Island of Montreal in the last election, and losing a seat in both places has laid bare just how low the party has fallen in the polls.

    “Obviously, it would have been nicer to be able to win and hold (the Montreal riding), but there’s more work to do and we’re going to stay focused on doing it,” Trudeau told reporters ahead of this morning’s cabinet meeting.

    When asked what went wrong for his party, Trudeau responded “I think there’s all sorts of reflections to take on that.”

    In French, he would not say if this result puts his leadership in question, instead saying his team has lots of work to do.

    Bloc leader Yves-François Blanchet will hold a press conference this morning, but has already said the results are significant for his party.

    “The victory is historic and all of Quebec will speak with a stronger voice in Ottawa,” Blanchet wrote on X, shortly after the winner was declared.

    NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh and his party had hoped to ride to a win in Montreal on the popularity of their candidate, city councillor Craig Sauvé, and use it to further their goal of replacing the Liberals as the chief alternative to the Conservatives.

    The NDP did hold on to a seat in Winnipeg in a tight race with the Conservatives, but the results in Elmwood-Transcona Monday were far tighter than in the last several elections. NDP candidate Leila Dance defeated Conservative Colin Reynolds by about 1,200 votes.

    Singh called it a “big victory.”

    “Our movement is growing — and we’re going to keep working for Canadians and building that movement to stop Conservative cuts before they start,” he said on social media.

    “Big corporations have had their governments. It’s the people’s time.”

    New Democrats recently pulled out of their political pact with the government in a bid to distance themselves from the Liberals, making the prospects of a snap election far more likely.

    Trudeau attempted to calm his caucus at their fall retreat in Nanaimo, B.C, last week, and brought former Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney on as an economic adviser in a bid to shore up some credibility with voters.

    The latest byelection loss will put more pressure on him as leader, with many polls suggesting voter anger is more directed at Trudeau himself than at Liberal policies.

    This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 17, 2024.

    The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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