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ESA is Considering a Mission to Give Advanced Warnings of Solar Storms – Universe Today

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The Sun is not exactly placid, though it appears pretty peaceful in the quick glances we can steal with our naked eyes. In reality though, the Sun is a dynamic, chaotic body, spraying out solar wind and radiation and erupting in great sheets of plasma. Living in a technological society next to all that is a challenge.

Mostly the Sun just warms the Earth. But sometimes its eruptions lead to solar storms that strike the Earth. And in our electrified and globally communicative world, those storms can cause a lot of damage. Potentially billions of euros worth of damage in Europe alone, according to the European Space Agency (ESA). There are things we can do to protect our electrical grid, communications systems, and other infrastructure from the geomagnetic storms caused by the Sun. But, we need to know when one’s coming.

A video simulation of Earth’s magnetic field interacting with the (solar) interplanetary magnetic field (IMF). A powerful enough solar storm can compress the Earth’s magnetosphere and allow the material and magnetism from the Sun to damage power-lines and other infrastructure. Credit: By Dr. Nikolai Tsyganenko, USRA/NASA/GSFC – Public Domain.

If we want to predict solar storms with any accuracy, we have to observe their source: the Sun. While we can see the Sun from Earth, the Earth’s magnetic field, which actually works to protect us from these storms, is a hindrance to monitoring the Sun. The atmosphere blocks out the Sun’s x-rays, extreme UV, and gamma rays, which also makes it harder to observe the Sun in detail.

It’s not that ground observations of the Sun can’t tell us about the Sun’s behaviour, and impending solar storms, it’s just that they can’t do it alone. Satellites inside Earth’s magnetosphere but outside the atmosphere can also help. But they take in situ measurements, they don’t make forecasts.

The ESA is planning a mission that will give us more advance warning of dangerous storms. To be more effective, it has to be in space, away from the Earth’s magnetosphere. The mission is called Lagrange, and right now the ESA is considering a pair of spacecraft. One would sit at Lagrangian Point 1, and the other would sit at Lagrangian Point 5.

The Earth-Sun Lagrangian points. (Not to scale.) One of the proposed spacecraft would sit at L1, in a head-on position to the Sun. The other would sit at L5 and gain an important side view. (The spacecraft shown at L2 is NASA’s WMAP.) Image Credit: NASA/WMAP Science Team

Lagrange points are specific locations in space where the gravitational force from the Earth and the Sun balance each other, and a spacecraft can stay in that position for a long time with minimal fuel usage. There are already multiple spacecraft at L1 and L2, with more coming. (The James Webb Space Telescope will be deployed at L2.)

The Sun sometimes erupts and emits vast globs of material with magnetic field lines from coronal mass ejections. Most of those globs don’t come anywhere near Earth; but occasionally, one strikes us. And that causes a geomagnetic storm here, as the Sun’s outburst temporarily overwhelms the Earth’s magnetosphere.

But these storms don’t come out of nowhere. They start out with observable conditions on the Sun. The Sun has an 11 year cycle, and the part of that cycle with the most solar activity—and storm potential—is called the solar maximum. During the solar maximum, most storms come from coronal mass ejections (CMEs). At other times in the 11 year cycle, storms are also spawned by co-rotating interaction regions (CIRs).

Sun with a huge coronal mass ejection. Image credit: NASA

But whatever the cause, they all come from the Sun, and predicting them more accurately is to everyone’s benefit.

The pair of spacecraft would work together to monitor the Sun. L1 is in the solar wind, in an upstream position. L1 measurements can tell us about space weather that’s heading for Earth. The L5 position gives us a kind of side view of coronal mass ejections, and that allows for better measurements of a CME’s speed and direction. Together, the information would mean better forecasts.

“One of the best ways to observe rapidly changing solar activity is to position a dedicated spacecraft slightly away from our direct line to the Sun, so that it can observe the ‘side’ of our star before it rotates into view,” said Juha-Pekka Luntama, responsible for space weather at ESA’s mission control centre, Darmstadt, Germany.

The L1 spacecraft would measure the actual material of the storm heading for Earth, and could sample its speed, density, temperature, and pressure. It can also measure the strength and the direction of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF), which is the portion of the Sun’s magnetic field pushed into space by the Sun’s solar wind. The L1 position also allows the spacecraft to watch the solar disc and corona, and to measure energetic particles from the Sun.

A contour plot of the effective potential due to gravity and the centrifugal force of a two-body system in a rotating frame of reference. The arrows indicate the gradients of the potential around the five Lagrange points—downhill toward them (red) or away from them (blue). Counterintuitively, the L4 and L5 points are the high points of the potential. At the points themselves these forces are balanced. Image Credit: By Lagrange_points.jpg: created by NASAderivative work: Xander89 (talk) – Lagrange_points.jpg, CC BY 3.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=7547312

The L5 position is 60 degrees behind Earth as it orbits the Sun. The L5 spacecraft would look at things from the side, and would see the side of the Sun that was about to rotate to face Earth. That spacecraft would also be able to watch as plasma clouds propagate and are emitted toward Earth.

“L5 is an excellent spot for a future ESA space weather mission because it gives advance views of what’s happening at the Sun,” said Juha-Pekka in a press release.

“The spacecraft would provide crucial data that will help us spot Earth-arriving ejections, improve our forecasts of the arrival time at Earth and provide advance knowledge of active regions on the Sun as they rotate into view.”

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For this mission, the two spacecraft would not be identical. To fulfill their scientific roles, they’d each need a different suite of instruments. Among those instruments are magnetographs, coronagraphs, heliospheric imagers, magnetometers, spectrometers, plasma analyzers, and others.

The Lagrange mission would become part of a network of observing facilities, both in space and here on Earth, dedicated to forecasting space storms. Together, they make up the ESA’s Space Weather (SWE) network.

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In a press release, the ESA states that a single extreme space weather event could cause up to $15 billion euros ($16.2 billion US). With advance warning, power grid operators would be able to prepare for the storm and reduce the damage, and ensure that electricity to critical facilities like hospitals was only minimally interrupted. Satellite operators would likewise benefit.

The mission is in the design concept stage right now. Experts in space weather and instrument design from industrial and scientific consortiums in Europe are working on it. The ESA says they will select a mission design within about 18 months.

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Here’s how Helene and other storms dumped a whopping 40 trillion gallons of rain on the South

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More than 40 trillion gallons of rain drenched the Southeast United States in the last week from Hurricane Helene and a run-of-the-mill rainstorm that sloshed in ahead of it — an unheard of amount of water that has stunned experts.

That’s enough to fill the Dallas Cowboys’ stadium 51,000 times, or Lake Tahoe just once. If it was concentrated just on the state of North Carolina that much water would be 3.5 feet deep (more than 1 meter). It’s enough to fill more than 60 million Olympic-size swimming pools.

“That’s an astronomical amount of precipitation,” said Ed Clark, head of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s National Water Center in Tuscaloosa, Alabama. “I have not seen something in my 25 years of working at the weather service that is this geographically large of an extent and the sheer volume of water that fell from the sky.”

The flood damage from the rain is apocalyptic, meteorologists said. More than 100 people are dead, according to officials.

Private meteorologist Ryan Maue, a former NOAA chief scientist, calculated the amount of rain, using precipitation measurements made in 2.5-mile-by-2.5 mile grids as measured by satellites and ground observations. He came up with 40 trillion gallons through Sunday for the eastern United States, with 20 trillion gallons of that hitting just Georgia, Tennessee, the Carolinas and Florida from Hurricane Helene.

Clark did the calculations independently and said the 40 trillion gallon figure (151 trillion liters) is about right and, if anything, conservative. Maue said maybe 1 to 2 trillion more gallons of rain had fallen, much if it in Virginia, since his calculations.

Clark, who spends much of his work on issues of shrinking western water supplies, said to put the amount of rain in perspective, it’s more than twice the combined amount of water stored by two key Colorado River basin reservoirs: Lake Powell and Lake Mead.

Several meteorologists said this was a combination of two, maybe three storm systems. Before Helene struck, rain had fallen heavily for days because a low pressure system had “cut off” from the jet stream — which moves weather systems along west to east — and stalled over the Southeast. That funneled plenty of warm water from the Gulf of Mexico. And a storm that fell just short of named status parked along North Carolina’s Atlantic coast, dumping as much as 20 inches of rain, said North Carolina state climatologist Kathie Dello.

Then add Helene, one of the largest storms in the last couple decades and one that held plenty of rain because it was young and moved fast before it hit the Appalachians, said University of Albany hurricane expert Kristen Corbosiero.

“It was not just a perfect storm, but it was a combination of multiple storms that that led to the enormous amount of rain,” Maue said. “That collected at high elevation, we’re talking 3,000 to 6000 feet. And when you drop trillions of gallons on a mountain, that has to go down.”

The fact that these storms hit the mountains made everything worse, and not just because of runoff. The interaction between the mountains and the storm systems wrings more moisture out of the air, Clark, Maue and Corbosiero said.

North Carolina weather officials said their top measurement total was 31.33 inches in the tiny town of Busick. Mount Mitchell also got more than 2 feet of rainfall.

Before 2017’s Hurricane Harvey, “I said to our colleagues, you know, I never thought in my career that we would measure rainfall in feet,” Clark said. “And after Harvey, Florence, the more isolated events in eastern Kentucky, portions of South Dakota. We’re seeing events year in and year out where we are measuring rainfall in feet.”

Storms are getting wetter as the climate change s, said Corbosiero and Dello. A basic law of physics says the air holds nearly 4% more moisture for every degree Fahrenheit warmer (7% for every degree Celsius) and the world has warmed more than 2 degrees (1.2 degrees Celsius) since pre-industrial times.

Corbosiero said meteorologists are vigorously debating how much of Helene is due to worsening climate change and how much is random.

For Dello, the “fingerprints of climate change” were clear.

“We’ve seen tropical storm impacts in western North Carolina. But these storms are wetter and these storms are warmer. And there would have been a time when a tropical storm would have been heading toward North Carolina and would have caused some rain and some damage, but not apocalyptic destruction. ”

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Follow AP’s climate coverage at https://apnews.com/hub/climate

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Follow Seth Borenstein on Twitter at @borenbears

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Associated Press climate and environmental coverage receives support from several private foundations. See more about AP’s climate initiative here. The AP is solely responsible for all content.

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‘Big Sam’: Paleontologists unearth giant skull of Pachyrhinosaurus in Alberta

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It’s a dinosaur that roamed Alberta’s badlands more than 70 million years ago, sporting a big, bumpy, bony head the size of a baby elephant.

On Wednesday, paleontologists near Grande Prairie pulled its 272-kilogram skull from the ground.

They call it “Big Sam.”

The adult Pachyrhinosaurus is the second plant-eating dinosaur to be unearthed from a dense bonebed belonging to a herd that died together on the edge of a valley that now sits 450 kilometres northwest of Edmonton.

It didn’t die alone.

“We have hundreds of juvenile bones in the bonebed, so we know that there are many babies and some adults among all of the big adults,” Emily Bamforth, a paleontologist with the nearby Philip J. Currie Dinosaur Museum, said in an interview on the way to the dig site.

She described the horned Pachyrhinosaurus as “the smaller, older cousin of the triceratops.”

“This species of dinosaur is endemic to the Grand Prairie area, so it’s found here and nowhere else in the world. They are … kind of about the size of an Indian elephant and a rhino,” she added.

The head alone, she said, is about the size of a baby elephant.

The discovery was a long time coming.

The bonebed was first discovered by a high school teacher out for a walk about 50 years ago. It took the teacher a decade to get anyone from southern Alberta to come to take a look.

“At the time, sort of in the ’70s and ’80s, paleontology in northern Alberta was virtually unknown,” said Bamforth.

When paleontogists eventually got to the site, Bamforth said, they learned “it’s actually one of the densest dinosaur bonebeds in North America.”

“It contains about 100 to 300 bones per square metre,” she said.

Paleontologists have been at the site sporadically ever since, combing through bones belonging to turtles, dinosaurs and lizards. Sixteen years ago, they discovered a large skull of an approximately 30-year-old Pachyrhinosaurus, which is now at the museum.

About a year ago, they found the second adult: Big Sam.

Bamforth said both dinosaurs are believed to have been the elders in the herd.

“Their distinguishing feature is that, instead of having a horn on their nose like a triceratops, they had this big, bony bump called a boss. And they have big, bony bumps over their eyes as well,” she said.

“It makes them look a little strange. It’s the one dinosaur that if you find it, it’s the only possible thing it can be.”

The genders of the two adults are unknown.

Bamforth said the extraction was difficult because Big Sam was intertwined in a cluster of about 300 other bones.

The skull was found upside down, “as if the animal was lying on its back,” but was well preserved, she said.

She said the excavation process involved putting plaster on the skull and wooden planks around if for stability. From there, it was lifted out — very carefully — with a crane, and was to be shipped on a trolley to the museum for study.

“I have extracted skulls in the past. This is probably the biggest one I’ve ever done though,” said Bamforth.

“It’s pretty exciting.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 25, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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The ancient jar smashed by a 4-year-old is back on display at an Israeli museum after repair

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TEL AVIV, Israel (AP) — A rare Bronze-Era jar accidentally smashed by a 4-year-old visiting a museum was back on display Wednesday after restoration experts were able to carefully piece the artifact back together.

Last month, a family from northern Israel was visiting the museum when their youngest son tipped over the jar, which smashed into pieces.

Alex Geller, the boy’s father, said his son — the youngest of three — is exceptionally curious, and that the moment he heard the crash, “please let that not be my child” was the first thought that raced through his head.

The jar has been on display at the Hecht Museum in Haifa for 35 years. It was one of the only containers of its size and from that period still complete when it was discovered.

The Bronze Age jar is one of many artifacts exhibited out in the open, part of the Hecht Museum’s vision of letting visitors explore history without glass barriers, said Inbal Rivlin, the director of the museum, which is associated with Haifa University in northern Israel.

It was likely used to hold wine or oil, and dates back to between 2200 and 1500 B.C.

Rivlin and the museum decided to turn the moment, which captured international attention, into a teaching moment, inviting the Geller family back for a special visit and hands-on activity to illustrate the restoration process.

Rivlin added that the incident provided a welcome distraction from the ongoing war in Gaza. “Well, he’s just a kid. So I think that somehow it touches the heart of the people in Israel and around the world,“ said Rivlin.

Roee Shafir, a restoration expert at the museum, said the repairs would be fairly simple, as the pieces were from a single, complete jar. Archaeologists often face the more daunting task of sifting through piles of shards from multiple objects and trying to piece them together.

Experts used 3D technology, hi-resolution videos, and special glue to painstakingly reconstruct the large jar.

Less than two weeks after it broke, the jar went back on display at the museum. The gluing process left small hairline cracks, and a few pieces are missing, but the jar’s impressive size remains.

The only noticeable difference in the exhibit was a new sign reading “please don’t touch.”

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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