BENGALURU (Reuters) – A full bounceback from the euro zone’s deepest recession on record will take two years or more, according to a Reuters poll of economists who also said there is a high risk the job recovery underway reverses by the end of 2020.
Europe was badly hit earlier this year by the coronavirus pandemic, which has now infected more than 22 million people globally. But stringent lockdowns and contact tracing helped get the numbers down and allowed swift re-openings.
Along with trillions of euros’ worth of European Central Bank stimulus and a 750 billion euro European Union recovery fund that kicks in next year, sentiment has improved, and the economy is bouncing back along with the euro.
The consensus from the Aug 14-19 Reuters poll points to 8.1% growth this quarter compared with the previous one, easily the fastest on record, following a historic 12.1% contraction in Q2. That is unchanged from the July poll median.
In May, around the time lockdowns were lifted in most euro zone countries, the Q3 forecast was for 7.2% growth.
Quarterly growth will then slow sharply to 3.0% in Q4, slightly better than the 2.8% predicted last month and still a historically robust rate.
However, more than 70% of economists, or 25 of 35 who replied to an additional question, said it would take two or more years for euro zone GDP to reach pre-COVID-19 levels. Ten respondents said within two years and none said within a year.
“Despite the recent recovery in economic indicators, the better-than-feared performance of labour markets and the recent agreement on the Recovery Fund, we still see various downside risks to the economic recovery,” said Elwin de Groot, head of macro strategy at Rabobank.
“Although there have been encouraging reports with regard to a potential (COVID-19) vaccine by early 2021, as long there isn’t any effective one, containment measures will have to be kept in place regardless. A second series of partial lockdowns could have some serious economic effects.”
Around three-quarters of common contributors to this month’s and last month’s poll either lowered their GDP forecasts for the remainder of the year or kept them unchanged.
Asked to predict their worst-case scenario, the median response was 4.0% this quarter, much better than the 2.0% forecast in last month’s poll. But the worst-case view points to a 2.0% contraction in Q4, the most pessimistic yet for that period.
On an annual basis, the economy was expected to shrink 8.2% this year and then grow 5.5% next, or -10.3% this year and no growth in 2021 on a worst-case basis.
Much will depend on how the job market performs from now on.
Thanks to wide-reaching government furlough programmes that have helped businesses retain workers, euro zone unemployment has risen only slightly to 7.8% in July from 7.2% in February.
But about 85% of economists in the poll, 28 of 33 who responded to an additional question, said the risk the job recovery reverses by year-end was high, including four who said very high.
“Euro zone unemployment almost looks like a Cinderella story. With barely any increase in unemployment, it is currently the belle of the global labour market ball, at least compared to many other developed economies,” said Carsten Brzeski, chief economist, eurozone and global head of macro at ING.
“When the clock strikes midnight, however, and short-term work schemes come to an end, the fairy tale is unlikely to continue. We expect a second wave of job losses towards the end of the year and going into 2021.”
The jobless rate is expected to rise to 8.9% in 2020 and 9.3% in 2021, according to a July Reuters poll.
Inflation was not expected to touch the ECB’s target of below, but close to 2% through to 2022, according to the latest August survey. The ECB’s key interest rates are expected to stay on hold through the forecast horizon.
(For other stories from the Reuters global long-term economic outlook polls package:)
(Reporting by Shrutee Sarkar and Richa Rebello; polling by Nagamani Lingappa; editing by Ross Finley, Kirsten Donovan)
TORONTO – Strength in the base metal and technology sectors helped Canada’s main stock index gain almost 100 points on Friday, while U.S. stock markets also climbed higher.
The S&P/TSX composite index closed up 93.51 points at 23,568.65.
In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 297.01 points at 41,393.78. The S&P 500 index was up 30.26 points at 5,626.02, while the Nasdaq composite was up 114.30 points at 17,683.98.
The Canadian dollar traded for 73.61 cents US compared with 73.58 cents US on Thursday.
The October crude oil contract was down 32 cents at US$68.65 per barrel and the October natural gas contract was down five cents at US$2.31 per mmBTU.
The December gold contract was up US$30.10 at US$2,610.70 an ounce and the December copper contract was up four cents US$4.24 a pound.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 13, 2024.
OTTAWA – Statistics Canada says wholesale sales, excluding petroleum, petroleum products, and other hydrocarbons and excluding oilseed and grain, rose 0.4 per cent to $82.7 billion in July.
The increase came as sales in the miscellaneous subsector gained three per cent to reach $10.5 billion in July, helped by strength in the agriculture supplies industry group, which rose 9.2 per cent.
The food, beverage and tobacco subsector added 1.7 per cent to total $15 billion in July.
The personal and household goods subsector fell 2.5 per cent to $12.1 billion.
In volume terms, overall wholesale sales rose 0.5 per cent in July.
Statistics Canada started including oilseed and grain as well as the petroleum and petroleum products subsector as part of wholesale trade last year, but is excluding the data from monthly analysis until there is enough historical data.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 13, 2024.
TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index was up more than 150 points in late-morning trading, helped by strength in the base metal and energy sectors, while U.S. stock markets were mixed.
The S&P/TSX composite index was up 172.18 points at 23,383.35.
In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was down 34.99 points at 40,826.72. The S&P 500 index was up 10.56 points at 5,564.69, while the Nasdaq composite was up 74.84 points at 17,470.37.
The Canadian dollar traded for 73.55 cents US compared with 73.59 cents US on Wednesday.
The October crude oil contract was up $2.00 at US$69.31 per barrel and the October natural gas contract was up five cents at US$2.32 per mmBTU.
The December gold contract was up US$40.00 at US$2,582.40 an ounce and the December copper contract was up six cents at US$4.20 a pound.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 12, 2024.
