A woman wearing a protective mask speaks on the phone in front of a closed down store, as the spread of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) continues, in London, Britain on July 16, 2020.
HANNAH MCKAY/Reuters
Euro zone economic activity slipped back into decline this month as a second wave of the coronavirus sweeps across the continent, heightening expectations for a double-dip recession, surveys showed on Friday.
Renewed restrictions to control the pandemic forced many businesses in the bloc’s dominant service industry to limit operations, and nearly 90% of economists polled by Reuters this week said there was a high risk the coronavirus resurgence would halt the nascent euro zone economic recovery.
“The euro zone PMI confirms that the second wave of the coronavirus is weighing more and more on the economy. A double-dip in the fourth quarter is becoming more likely at this rate,” said Bert Colijn at ING.
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IHS Markit’s Flash Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index, seen as a good gauge of economic health, fell to 49.4 from September’s final reading of 50.4.
That was below the 50-mark separating growth from contraction and only fractionally better than the 49.3 predicted in a Reuters poll.
That headline PMI was dragged down by the service industry’s PMI, which sank more than expected to 46.2 from 48.0.
“The further decline in the euro zone Composite PMI in October adds to the evidence that the second wave of infections, and the new wave of containment measures, is taking a heavy toll on the economy,” said Jack Allen-Reynolds at Capital Economics.
Friday’s surveys showed the bloc’s economy is running at two speeds, with manufacturing benefiting from strong global demand but services – which make up the bulk of the economy – struggling to remain active as lockdowns force consumers to stay home and businesses to close.
In contrast, in China – where the economy relies much more heavily on manufacturing and where the pandemic is largely under control – the recovery accelerated last quarter as consumers shook off their caution.
Echoing the divide between services and manufacturing, German factories powered ahead this month, while in France activity contracted as a resurgence of the virus hit the euro zone’s second-biggest economy.
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Outside the currency bloc and now outside the European Union, Britain’s economic recovery also lost more momentum as restrictions hit businesses in the hospitality and transport sectors.
European stocks pushed 0.8% higher for their best day in five trading sessions as strong third-quarter results offset the survey data.
WINTER IS COMING
It will likely be a chilling winter for the job market which until now has been shielded by government furlough schemes as the uncertain outlook meant firms reduced headcount for an eighth month.
The composite employment subindex nudged up slightly, but remained in negative territory, while the Reuters poll concluded that the bloc’s jobless rate would not peak for at least six months.
With infection rates and the death toll rising, optimism fell. The services business expectations index dropped to 54.6 from 59.2, its lowest since May when the initial lockdowns were being eased.
A 750 billion euro stimulus plan agreed by the European Union in July to support its suffering economies will be delayed, a senior diplomat said on Thursday, which is also likely to have a negative impact on sentiment.
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Still, factories fared much better than expected. The flash manufacturing PMI climbed to a 26-month high of 54.4 and was far above the median forecast in a Reuters poll.
An index measuring output, which feeds into the composite PMI, rose to its highest since early 2018.
Strong demand for manufactured goods meant factories were also able to increase their prices for the first time since mid-2019, albeit only slightly.
That will provide some relief to policymakers at the European Central Bank as inflation, which they want close to 2%, has been negative for two months.
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FREDERICTON – New Brunswick‘s finance minister says the province recorded a surplus of $500.8 million for the fiscal year that ended in March.
Ernie Steeves says the amount — more than 10 times higher than the province’s original $40.3-million budget projection for the 2023-24 fiscal year — was largely the result of a strong economy and population growth.
The report of a big surplus comes as the province prepares for an election campaign, which will officially start on Thursday and end with a vote on Oct. 21.
Steeves says growth of the surplus was fed by revenue from the Harmonized Sales Tax and federal money, especially for health-care funding.
Progressive Conservative Premier Blaine Higgs has promised to reduce the HST by two percentage points to 13 per cent if the party is elected to govern next month.
Meanwhile, the province’s net debt, according to the audited consolidated financial statements, has dropped from $12.3 billion in 2022-23 to $11.8 billion in the most recent fiscal year.
Liberal critic René Legacy says having a stronger balance sheet does not eliminate issues in health care, housing and education.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 16, 2024.
OTTAWA – Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland says the government is making some changes to mortgage rules to help more Canadians to purchase their first home.
She says the changes will come into force in December and better reflect the housing market.
The price cap for insured mortgages will be boosted for the first time since 2012, moving to $1.5 million from $1 million, to allow more people to qualify for a mortgage with less than a 20 per cent down payment.
The government will also expand its 30-year mortgage amortization to include first-time homebuyers buying any type of home, as well as anybody buying a newly built home.
On Aug. 1 eligibility for the 30-year amortization was changed to include first-time buyers purchasing a newly-built home.
Justice Minister Arif Virani is also releasing drafts for a bill of rights for renters as well as one for homebuyers, both of which the government promised five months ago.
Virani says the government intends to work with provinces to prevent practices like renovictions, where landowners evict tenants and make minimal renovations and then seek higher rents.
The government touts today’s announced measures as the “boldest mortgage reforms in decades,” and it comes after a year of criticism over high housing costs.
The Liberals have been slumping in the polls for months, including among younger adults who say not being able to afford a house is one of their key concerns.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 16, 2024.
OTTAWA – Statistics Canada says manufacturing sales rose 1.4 per cent to $71 billion in July, helped by higher sales in the petroleum and coal and chemical product subsectors.
The increase followed a 1.7 per cent decrease in June.
The agency says sales in the petroleum and coal product subsector gained 6.7 per cent to total $8.6 billion in July as most refineries sold more, helped by higher prices and demand.
Chemical product sales rose 5.3 per cent to $5.6 billion in July, boosted by increased sales of pharmaceutical and medicine products.
Sales of wood products fell 4.8 per cent for the month to $2.9 billion, the lowest level since May 2023.
In constant dollar terms, overall manufacturing sales rose 0.9 per cent in July.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 16, 2024.
