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Europe Slowly Picks Up Pieces After Virus Shattered Economy – Yahoo Canada Finance

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(Bloomberg) —

Economic confidence is slowly returning to the euro area where companies from manufacturers to retailers are picking up the pieces after devastating coronavirus lockdowns.

Sentiment in a European Commission survey rose in June, though less than economists had forecasts, and it remains well below the levels seen at the start of the year. The report — like similar ones published recently — indicates that full recovery is still a long way off.

The 19-nation euro region is set to shrink more than 8% this year, and European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde has warned that the pandemic will change parts of the economy permanently.

So far, confidence has clawed back about 30% of the combined losses of March and April, when far-reaching restrictions brought public life to a near standstill. While those limitations are now gradually being lifted, the continued spread of the disease in parts of Europe, as well as in the Americas, serves as a cautious reminder how quickly the situation can deteriorate again.

Hundreds of thousands of workers are already facing unemployment, with companies from Deutsche Lufthansa AG — Germany’s severely battered airline that just secured a government bailout — to plane maker Airbus SE preparing to cut jobs.

The commission report showed that employment expectations in the euro area have improved from their lows, but for some sectors they remain as much as 60% below pre-virus level.

Still, consumer confidence rose in June as households expect the general economic situation to improve. Sentiment measures increased across all industries and major euro-area economies.

The improvements come on the back of massive stimulus campaigns. The ECB is buying 1.35 trillion euros ($1.5 trillion) worth of debt, and governments have pledged hundreds of billions of euros in support. German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s coalition agreed this month on a sweeping 130 billion-euro plan, and Economy Minister Peter Altmaier has flagged a package of measures aimed at exporters for the coming week.

What Bloomberg’s Economists Say…

“If any European country is likely to see a V-shaped recovery, it’s Germany. Getting the virus under control caused less disruption than elsewhere, fiscal support is substantial and activity is picking up again.”

— Jamie Rush, chief European economist. Read the GERMANY INSIGHT

The European Union’s leaders held their first debate on a proposed 750 billion-euro plan to help their economies heal from the pandemic, and agreed to meet in person next month with the aim of reaching an agreement.

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Energy stocks help lift S&P/TSX composite, U.S. stock markets also up

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TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index was higher in late-morning trading, helped by strength in energy stocks, while U.S. stock markets also moved up.

The S&P/TSX composite index was up 34.91 points at 23,736.98.

In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 178.05 points at 41,800.13. The S&P 500 index was up 28.38 points at 5,661.47, while the Nasdaq composite was up 133.17 points at 17,725.30.

The Canadian dollar traded for 73.56 cents US compared with 73.57 cents US on Monday.

The November crude oil contract was up 68 cents at US$69.70 per barrel and the October natural gas contract was up three cents at US$2.40 per mmBTU.

The December gold contract was down US$7.80 at US$2,601.10 an ounce and the December copper contract was up a penny at US$4.28 a pound.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 17, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:GSPTSE, TSX:CADUSD)

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Canada’s inflation rate hits 2% target, reaches lowest level in more than three years

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OTTAWA – Canada’s inflation rate fell to two per cent last month, finally hitting the Bank of Canada’s target after a tumultuous battle with skyrocketing price growth.

The annual inflation rate fell from 2.5 per cent in July to reach the lowest level since February 2021.

Statistics Canada’s consumer price index report on Tuesday attributed the slowdown in part to lower gasoline prices.

Clothing and footwear prices also decreased on a month-over-month basis, marking the first decline in the month of August since 1971 as retailers offered larger discounts to entice shoppers amid slowing demand.

The Bank of Canada’s preferred core measures of inflation, which strip out volatility in prices, also edged down in August.

The marked slowdown in price growth last month was steeper than the 2.1 per cent annual increase forecasters were expecting ahead of Tuesday’s release and will likely spark speculation of a larger interest rate cut next month from the Bank of Canada.

“Inflation remains unthreatening and the Bank of Canada should now focus on trying to stimulate the economy and halting the upward climb in the unemployment rate,” wrote CIBC senior economist Andrew Grantham.

Benjamin Reitzes, managing director of Canadian rates and macro strategist at BMO, said Tuesday’s figures “tilt the scales” slightly in favour of more aggressive cuts, though he noted the Bank of Canada will have one more inflation reading before its October rate announcement.

“If we get another big downside surprise, calls for a 50 basis-point cut will only grow louder,” wrote Reitzes in a client note.

The central bank began rapidly hiking interest rates in March 2022 in response to runaway inflation, which peaked at a whopping 8.1 per cent that summer.

The central bank increased its key lending rate to five per cent and held it at that level until June 2024, when it delivered its first rate cut in four years.

A combination of recovered global supply chains and high interest rates have helped cool price growth in Canada and around the world.

Bank of Canada governor Tiff Macklem recently signalled that the central bank is ready to increase the size of its interest rate cuts, if inflation or the economy slow by more than expected.

Its key lending rate currently stands at 4.25 per cent.

CIBC is forecasting the central bank will cut its key rate by two percentage points between now and the middle of next year.

The U.S. Federal Reserve is also expected on Wednesday to deliver its first interest rate cut in four years.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 17, 2024.

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Federal money and sales taxes help pump up New Brunswick budget surplus

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FREDERICTON – New Brunswick‘s finance minister says the province recorded a surplus of $500.8 million for the fiscal year that ended in March.

Ernie Steeves says the amount — more than 10 times higher than the province’s original $40.3-million budget projection for the 2023-24 fiscal year — was largely the result of a strong economy and population growth.

The report of a big surplus comes as the province prepares for an election campaign, which will officially start on Thursday and end with a vote on Oct. 21.

Steeves says growth of the surplus was fed by revenue from the Harmonized Sales Tax and federal money, especially for health-care funding.

Progressive Conservative Premier Blaine Higgs has promised to reduce the HST by two percentage points to 13 per cent if the party is elected to govern next month.

Meanwhile, the province’s net debt, according to the audited consolidated financial statements, has dropped from $12.3 billion in 2022-23 to $11.8 billion in the most recent fiscal year.

Liberal critic René Legacy says having a stronger balance sheet does not eliminate issues in health care, housing and education.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 16, 2024.

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