FRANKFURT, Germany (AP) — Europe’s economy has grown modestly after months of stagnation, but higher interest rates designed to fight inflation are casting a shadow as they make it more expensive for households and businesses to borrow, invest and spend.
The 20 countries that use the euro currency and their 346 million people saw 0.3% growth in the April-to-June period, compared with the first three months of the year, the EU statistics agency Eurostat reported Monday.
That’s an improvement over zero growth in the first quarter and a slight decline in fourth quarter of last year — but not by much. Plus, one-time factors and an outsized bump from Ireland made things look better than they really were.
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The eurozone got a boost by 0.5% growth in France and 0.4% in Spain, where lower inflation has helped lift consumer spending power.
Yet the French figure was increased by the delivery of one very large manufactured item — a cruise ship. That statistical quirk flattered French growth but does little to disguise weak demand for goods in the eurozone’s second-largest economy.
Ireland’s growth of 3.3%, largest in the eurozone, also distorted the overall picture. Its growth figures often show large swings due to major international companies housing their headquarters there, including tech giants like Meta, Google and Apple.
Without Ireland, euro-area growth would have been only 0.1%, said Franziska Palmas, senior Europe economist at Capital Economics.
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The overall figure “was driven by a few country idiosyncrasies and masks an underlying momentum that is likely much closer to stagnation,” said Marc de Muizon, senior European analyst at Deutsche Bank Research.
Europe’s largest economy, Germany, struggled in the second quarter, recording zero growth after two straight quarters of falling output as it grappled with high energy costs tied to Russia’s war in Ukraine. Italy, the No. 3 economy, shrank by 0.3%.
The eurozone growth figures for the first quarter were revised from a decline of 0.1%, statistically erasing what had been two straight quarters of contraction — one definition of recession.
Inflation in the eurozone, meanwhile, continued its gradual decline, falling to 5.3% in July from 5.5% in June.
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Europe is still struggling with the aftershocks of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, including Moscow cutting off most of its natural gas to the continent that sharply raised prices for the fuel and the electricity it generates.
In Germany, Europe’s manufacturing powerhouse, Vice Chancellor and Economy Minister Robert Habeck has proposed capping energy prices for industry with government help.
The worst of the price spike is over, but costs are still higher than before the war began. Energy has faded as a main driver of inflation, but price rises are hitting Europeans when they shop for groceries, clothes and more, and the rebound for services companies _ such as hotels and restaurants that suffered during the COVID-19 pandemic — has mostly run its course.
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Food prices rose 10.8% in July from a year earlier, an improvement from June and previous months but still a pain point for households. Energy, meanwhile, kept dropping, falling 6.1%. Stripping out volatile food and energy prices, core inflation held steady at 5.5% — a key indicator that has not fallen as much as central bankers want.
In a bright spot for Europe, rebounding travel, especially in the Mediterranean countries that heavily rely on tourism, is expected to support growth in the upcoming third quarter as people flock to the beach for their summer holidays in Greece, Spain and Italy, despite recent heat waves and wildfires.
Other than that, prospects for the rest of the year are muted. Another drag on the economy is the rapid series of interest rate increases that the European Central Bank has unleashed to knock down inflation.
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The ECB made its ninth straight hike Thursday, bringing its key deposit rate from minus 0.5% to 3.75% in just one year, a record pace since the creation of the euro in 1999. The result has been higher mortgage rates and canceled construction plans due to expensive or unavailable credit.
The central bank’s lending survey shows the lowest level of business loans and credit lines since the statistics started in 2003.
Bank President Christine Lagarde left open whether the bank will keep hiking rates at its next meeting on Sept. 14, saying the decision will depend on incoming inflation data.
Since the rate hikes began, inflation has steadily fallen from a peak of 10.6% in October, but July’s figure of 5.3% is still well above the ECB’s 2% target.
Bank officials say tough action now will spare even more painful restriction of credit later if inflation gets completely out of control.
TORONTO – Strength in the base metal and technology sectors helped Canada’s main stock index gain almost 100 points on Friday, while U.S. stock markets also climbed higher.
The S&P/TSX composite index closed up 93.51 points at 23,568.65.
In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 297.01 points at 41,393.78. The S&P 500 index was up 30.26 points at 5,626.02, while the Nasdaq composite was up 114.30 points at 17,683.98.
The Canadian dollar traded for 73.61 cents US compared with 73.58 cents US on Thursday.
The October crude oil contract was down 32 cents at US$68.65 per barrel and the October natural gas contract was down five cents at US$2.31 per mmBTU.
The December gold contract was up US$30.10 at US$2,610.70 an ounce and the December copper contract was up four cents US$4.24 a pound.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 13, 2024.
Companies in this story: (TSX:GSPTSE, TSX:CADUSD)
The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.
OTTAWA – Statistics Canada says wholesale sales, excluding petroleum, petroleum products, and other hydrocarbons and excluding oilseed and grain, rose 0.4 per cent to $82.7 billion in July.
The increase came as sales in the miscellaneous subsector gained three per cent to reach $10.5 billion in July, helped by strength in the agriculture supplies industry group, which rose 9.2 per cent.
The food, beverage and tobacco subsector added 1.7 per cent to total $15 billion in July.
The personal and household goods subsector fell 2.5 per cent to $12.1 billion.
In volume terms, overall wholesale sales rose 0.5 per cent in July.
Statistics Canada started including oilseed and grain as well as the petroleum and petroleum products subsector as part of wholesale trade last year, but is excluding the data from monthly analysis until there is enough historical data.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 13, 2024.
The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.
VICTORIA – British Columbia is forecasting a record budget deficit and a rising debt of almost $129 billion less than two weeks before the start of a provincial election campaign where economic stability and future progress are expected to be major issues.
Finance Minister Katrine Conroy, who has announced her retirement and will not seek re-election in the Oct. 19 vote, said Tuesday her final budget update as minister predicts a deficit of $8.9 billion, up $1.1 billion from a forecast she made earlier this year.
Conroy said she acknowledges “challenges” facing B.C., including three consecutive deficit budgets, but expected improved economic growth where the province will start to “turn a corner.”
The $8.9 billion deficit forecast for 2024-2025 is followed by annual deficit projections of $6.7 billion and $6.1 billion in 2026-2027, Conroy said at a news conference outlining the government’s first quarterly financial update.
Conroy said lower corporate income tax and natural resource revenues and the increased cost of fighting wildfires have had some of the largest impacts on the budget.
“I want to acknowledge the economic uncertainties,” she said. “While global inflation is showing signs of easing and we’ve seen cuts to the Bank of Canada interest rates, we know that the challenges are not over.”
Conroy said wildfire response costs are expected to total $886 million this year, more than $650 million higher than originally forecast.
Corporate income tax revenue is forecast to be $638 million lower as a result of federal government updates and natural resource revenues are down $299 million due to lower prices for natural gas, lumber and electricity, she said.
Debt-servicing costs are also forecast to be $344 million higher due to the larger debt balance, the current interest rate and accelerated borrowing to ensure services and capital projects are maintained through the province’s election period, said Conroy.
B.C.’s economic growth is expected to strengthen over the next three years, but the timing of a return to a balanced budget will fall to another minister, said Conroy, who was addressing what likely would be her last news conference as Minister of Finance.
The election is expected to be called on Sept. 21, with the vote set for Oct. 19.
“While we are a strong province, people are facing challenges,” she said. “We have never shied away from taking those challenges head on, because we want to keep British Columbians secure and help them build good lives now and for the long term. With the investments we’re making and the actions we’re taking to support people and build a stronger economy, we’ve started to turn a corner.”
Premier David Eby said before the fiscal forecast was released Tuesday that the New Democrat government remains committed to providing services and supports for people in British Columbia and cuts are not on his agenda.
Eby said people have been hurt by high interest costs and the province is facing budget pressures connected to low resource prices, high wildfire costs and struggling global economies.
The premier said that now is not the time to reduce supports and services for people.
Last month’s year-end report for the 2023-2024 budget saw the province post a budget deficit of $5.035 billion, down from the previous forecast of $5.9 billion.
Eby said he expects government financial priorities to become a major issue during the upcoming election, with the NDP pledging to continue to fund services and the B.C. Conservatives looking to make cuts.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 10, 2024.
Note to readers: This is a corrected story. A previous version said the debt would be going up to more than $129 billion. In fact, it will be almost $129 billion.
The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.
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