Even with strict containment measures, officials project up to 22,000 COVID-19 deaths in Canada - CBC.ca | Canada News Media
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Even with strict containment measures, officials project up to 22,000 COVID-19 deaths in Canada – CBC.ca

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Federal health officials are projecting there could be nearly 32,000 cases of COVID-19 and between 500 and 700 deaths in Canada by April 16, and even with relatively strong control measures in place, there could be between 11,000 and 22,000 deaths over the course of the pandemic.

The figures came Thursday morning as officials released modelling on how the COVID-19 crisis could unfold in the country, and suggested that containment measures such as physical distancing and quarantines could be in place for months to come.

The longer-term projections look at scenarios for when strong controls are followed (one-10 per cent of the population infected, called the “green zone”), weaker controls (25-50 per cent infected, called the “blue zone”) and no controls (70-80 per cent infected, called the “red zone”).

With strong controls, if about 2.5 to five per cent of the population became infected, that would mean between 934,000 and 1.9 million cases. That would also mean up to 22,000 deaths and between 23,000 and 46,000 ICU admissions.

If no containment measures had been taken, which was not the case in Canada, there would be a worst-case scenario of about 300,000 deaths. 

Officials said the caseload in Canada is doubling every three to five days, which is considered a relatively positive trajectory compared to other countries. Tam said that is in large part because of lessons learned from other countries about how strong control measures can limit the spread of the virus.

Tam said she is hopeful Canada can stay in the green zone and keep infections and deaths relatively low. 

‘Prevent every death that we can’

She warned that measures that can create “hardships” are critical to keep ICU admissions and deaths as low as possible.

“We can’t prevent every death, but we must prevent every death that we can,” she said.

Tam said it’s early to know how close Canada is nationally to seeing a “peak” in transmission. But she cautioned that even as there’s a decline in transmissions, Canadians must stay the course with preventative measures as there is a risk of the virus re-igniting.

“What we do together now will buy us more time to further understand the virus and to develop treatments and vaccines,” she said.

“We are the authors of our fate. Together we can plank the epidemic curve.”

Tam said if 2.5 per cent of the population were infected, there would begin to be strains on the health-care system.

Canada’s chief public health officer Dr. Theresa Tam says models are “imperfect” but that they can help understand the state and trajectory of the pandemic and the effect of public health measures to combat the spread of COVID-19. 1:03

The analysis of how many people could become infected, get sick or die from the virus comes just before the long holiday weekend.

Tam said models are “imperfect” but they can help understand the state of the pandemic and where it might go, along with the effect of public health measures on the transmission of the virus.

Repeated advice

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has repeatedly told Canadians that how fast and far the virus spreads will depend largely on how stringently Canadians follow public health advice, including physical distancing, handwashing and staying home whenever possible.

Several provinces have already released projections. Ontario estimates the number of deaths in the province could reach between 3,000 and 15,000 people over the course of the pandemic, which could last up to two years. 

Tam has cautioned that models that try to predict how many people could become infected and die from the coronavirus are not “crystal balls,” and that it’s important to focus on data on what is happening in real time.

How projections actually play out depends largely on actions taken by individuals and governments, she said.

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Political parties cool to idea of new federal regulations for nomination contests

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OTTAWA – Several federal political parties are expressing reservations about the prospect of fresh regulations to prevent foreign meddlers from tainting their candidate nomination processes.

Elections Canada has suggested possible changes to safeguard nominations, including barring non-citizens from helping choose candidates, requiring parties to publish contest rules and explicitly outlawing behaviour such as voting more than once.

However, representatives of the Bloc Québécois, Green Party and NDP have told a federal commission of inquiry into foreign interference that such changes may be unwelcome, difficult to implement or counterproductive.

The Canada Elections Act currently provides for limited regulation of federal nomination races and contestants.

For instance, only contestants who accept $1,000 in contributions or incur $1,000 in expenses have to file a financial return. In addition, the act does not include specific obligations concerning candidacy, voting, counting or results reporting other than the identity of the successful nominee.

A report released in June by the National Security and Intelligence Committee of Parliamentarians expressed concern about how easily foreign actors can take advantage of loopholes and vulnerabilities to support preferred candidates.

Lucy Watson, national director of the NDP, told the inquiry Thursday she had concerns about the way in which new legislation would interact with the internal decision-making of the party.

“We are very proud of the fact that our members play such a significant role in shaping the internal policies and procedures and infrastructure of the party, and I would not want to see that lost,” she said.

“There are guidelines, there are best practices that we would welcome, but if we were to talk about legal requirements and legislation, that’s something I would have to take away and put further thought into, and have discussions with folks who are integral to the party’s governance.”

In an August interview with the commission of inquiry, Bloc Québécois executive director Mathieu Desquilbet said the party would be opposed to any external body monitoring nomination and leadership contest rules.

A summary tabled Thursday says Desquilbet expressed doubts about the appropriateness of requiring nomination candidates to file a full financial report with Elections Canada, saying the agency’s existing regulatory framework and the Bloc’s internal rules on the matter are sufficient.

Green Party representatives Jon Irwin and Robin Marty told the inquiry in an August interview it would not be realistic for an external body, like Elections Canada, to administer nomination or leadership contests as the resources required would exceed the federal agency’s capacity.

A summary of the interview says Irwin and Marty “also did not believe that rules violations could effectively be investigated by an external body like the Office of the Commissioner of Canada Elections.”

“The types of complaints that get raised during nomination contests can be highly personal, politically driven, and could overwhelm an external body.”

Marty, national campaign director for the party, told the inquiry Thursday that more reporting requirements would also place an administrative burden on volunteers and riding workers.

In addition, he said that disclosing the vote tally of a nomination contest could actually help foreign meddlers by flagging the precise number of ballots needed for a candidate to be chosen.

Irwin, interim executive director of the Greens, said the ideal tactic for a foreign country would be working to get someone in a “position of power” within a Canadian political party.

He said “the bad guys are always a step ahead” when it comes to meddling in the Canadian political process.

In May, David Vigneault, director of the Canadian Security Intelligence Service at the time, said it was very clear from the design of popular social media app TikTok that data gleaned from its users is available to the Chinese government.

A December 2022 CSIS memo tabled at the inquiry Thursday said TikTok “has the potential to be exploited” by Beijing to “bolster its influence and power overseas, including in Canada.”

Asked about the app, Marty told the inquiry the Greens would benefit from more “direction and guidance,” given the party’s lack of resources to address such things.

Representatives of the Liberal and Conservative parties are slated to appear at the inquiry Friday, while chief electoral officer Stéphane Perrault is to testify at a later date.

After her party representatives appeared Thursday, Green Leader Elizabeth May told reporters it was important for all party leaders to work together to come up with acceptable rules.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 19, 2024.



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Métis Nation Saskatchewan leaves national council, cites concerns with Ontario group

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OTTAWA – The Métis Nation of Saskatchewan has pulled out of a national body representing Métis, citing problems with an Ontario group and throwing the future of the Métis National Council into question.

In a resolution passed Thursday morning, the Saskatchewan group says the Métis Nation of Ontario, which is a member of the national body, accepts and continues to represent people who are not Métis.

“The Métis National Council has increasingly been used for advocacy purposes that are inconsistent with its original mandate and vision, diverting from the foundational role of representing Métis rights and self-determination,” the resolution says.

It also says the Métis National Council has failed to ensure the integrity of the Ontario group’s citizenship registry and has not rectified problems, despite constant calls to do so.

The resolution says its continued association with the Métis Nation of Ontario “no longer benefits the Métis Nation within Saskatchewan or the Métis Nation as a whole.”

The Métis Nation of Ontario did not immediately respond to a request for comment, but has previously defended its citizenship registry as being legitimate.

The departure of the Saskatchewan group comes years after the Manitoba Métis Federation withdrew from the council, citing similar concerns about the Métis Nation of Ontario.

“This was not a decision our government made lightly but one we felt necessary. Our (Métis Nation of Saskatchewan) government and our Métis communities need to have control over our identity and culture while making decisions that align with the values of our Saskatchewan Métis Nation,” said president Glen McCallum in a statement on Thursday.

The Métis National Council was, until Thursday, comprised of the Métis Nation of Saskatchewan, the Métis Nation of Alberta, the Métis Nation of Ontario and the Métis Nation of British Columbia.

The Saskatchewan group was a founding member of the national body, along with the Alberta group and the Manitoba Métis Federation.

According to the national council’s bylaws, quorum for its board of governors meetings must include two of the founding members. As of now only one remains, bringing into question the future of the organization, which often works with the federal government and advocates internationally for Métis.

Will Goodon, who serves as the Manitoba Métis Federation’s housing minister, said the national body is “dead today.”

“A meeting cannot be held. And they cannot change the bylaws without having a board of governors meeting,” he wrote on X.

Métis National Council president Cassidy Caron announced earlier this year she would not be seeking re-election, leaving an open contest for someone to fill her post.

The board voted to postpone and reschedule a September vote and general assembly to November. Caron said in a newsletter that her term will end on Sept. 30 either way.

The Saskatchewan group had already pulled support for federal legislation that would enshrine its self-government over concerns about the Métis Nation of Ontario and the Métis Nation of Alberta, which were also included.

McCallum said in April the legislation was holding the group back, and that they needed to put the needs of Métis in Saskatchewan first.

First Nations chiefs in Ontario and the Manitoba Métis Federation consistently raised concerns about the Ontario group as the legislation was being studied by a House of Commons committee, with Métis Nation of Ontario president Margaret Froh billing the self-government process as the longest in Canadian history.

First Nations chiefs in Ontario have accused the federal government of overstepping its jurisdiction and alleged the legislation infringes on their rights.

The Assembly of First Nations, which represents some 630 chiefs across Canada, passed a resolution calling for the federal government to kill the legislation altogether. The AFN’s concerns are mainly focused on six new communities the Métis Nation of Ontario and the province recognized in 2017, which it says have no historical basis to exist.

The Manitoba Métis Federation has also opposed the extension of self-government to the Métis Nation of Ontario, saying the Ontario group’s membership is not on par with its definition of Métis.

The Métis Nation of Ontario has disputed that, pushing back against the idea Métis only exist around the Red River in Manitoba.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 19, 2024.



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Quebec public services are becoming ‘dehumanized’ due to rise in demand: ombudsperson

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MONTREAL – Quebec’s ombudsperson is warning that public services are becoming “dehumanized” in the province amid a rise in demand for them.

Marc-André Dowd released his annual report today, which highlights several examples of people receiving inadequate care across the health network in the 12 months leading to March 31.

One dying man who lived alone was denied help cleaning his cat’s litter box by his local health clinic, a service Dowd says should have been given for “humanitarian reasons.”

Dowd also describes staff at a long-term care home feeding residents “mechanically” and talking among each other — despite health ministry guidelines directing staff to maintain eye contact with residents.

The ombudsperson says his office received a record number of problems to investigate across the province’s public services — 24,867 compared with 22,053 last year.

He says his office investigated 13,358 cases between April 2023 and March of this year.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 19, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.



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