For some variable rate mortgage holders with floating payments the pain from the latest hike will be immediately felt and will amount to about $14 more a month for every $100,000 owing on their mortgage.
But for other homeowners, who may have fixed rates or variable mortgages with fixed-payments, the impact is more likely to be felt at renewal.
Approximately half of all mortgages in Canada are set to renew in 2025 or 2026 due in part to the real estate frenzy that transpired over the course of the COVID-19 pandemic.
“For the fixed rate people it’s going to be much less catastrophic. Many of those people will be able to shop for new mortgage and they will qualify because their mortgages are smaller due to the good payments they’ve made and they can manage it (the higher payments),” mortgage broker Ron Butler told CP24.com. this week. “The variable situation is somewhat more concerning because there may be no principal being paid down or it (the balance of the loan) might have even grown (due to fixed payments that don’t even cover interest).”
If you have a mortgage coming up for renewal here is what you need to know about this higher rate environment.
SOME PAYMENTS COULD SKYROCKET
Many variable rate mortgage holders – those at four of the six big banks – have what is known as fixed payments. That has meant that as rates have increased more and more of their money has gone to interest rather than principal, even as their total payment has remained the same. The practice has, in turn, created a situation where some homeowners have amortizations that have risen well beyond the ones they agreed to when they first took out their mortgage and that is likely to be a problem come renewal.
“Because of these rate hikes some homeowners might have an amortization of 60 years and the current lender will likely not allow them to keep that,” RATESDOTCA mortgage expert Victor Tran told CP24.com. “They will need to bring it down to the contractual amortization and if that happens their payments are going to skyrocket. It is going to be a lot higher than what they are currently paying.”
Tran said that he expects lenders to show some flexibility when it comes to homeowners who haven’t been paying off much, if any, principal.
But he said that it is not likely that homeowners will be able to keep extended amortization periods forever, an opinion that Butler also holds.
Butler told CP24.com that banks “will almost always” offer a chance to go back to a 30 year amortization, which is the maximum allowed.
But he said that might not make an enormous amount of difference for a homeowner whose payment is set to double, say from $2,000 to $4,000 a month.
“They (the bank) may look at it closely and find out that yeah, you are right, you’re just hopeless and you can never make the (new) payment. If that is the case they are allowed by the regulator in some cases to go to 35 years or even a 40-year amortization if there is proven financial inability to pay. But again, it doesn’t reduce the payment back to $2,000,” he said.
RATES WILL LIKELY BE HIGHER REGARDLESS OF WHEN YOU RENEW
The Bank of Canada has said that it expects inflation to return to its two per cent target in the middle of 2025. That would allow for interest rate cuts. But few industry insiders expect rates to return to the levels that they were at in 2020 and 2021 anytime soon, if ever.
“We’re never coming back to those days when people were getting rates of 1.59, 1.89, 1.99. It is gone forever,” Butler said. “So whatever rate you get is guaranteed to be higher than what you started with five years before. It will either be a little bit higher, instead of two per cent it will be three-and-a-half per cent, or it will be lot higher, like in the six per cent range. So that is the key thing to understand. It is that everyone is going to have to pay more.”
“Over the past month we’ve seen fixed rates increase by a full percentage point,” Tran added. “That’s huge”
YOU MIGHT NOT BE ABLE TO SWITCH LENDERS
Many homebuyers who took out mortgages in 2020 or 2021 did so with historically low interest rates. The stress test meant that those homebuyers still had to qualify at a rate of 5.25 per cent or their contractually agreed upon rate plus two percentage points, whichever was higher. But those seeking to take out a new mortgage today or jump lenders could be stress tested at a rate in excess of eight per cent. That, says Tran, could leave many existing homebuyers with few options other than to renew with their current lender where they will be able to avoid the stress test.
“I’ve had many customers or former clients that are simply not able to take advantage of lower rates with other lenders because they can’t qualify to switch out so they are at the mercy of the current lender,” he told CP24.com. “I think a lot of the lenders know that unfortunately that these customers will have difficulty qualifying elsewhere. But it’s unfortunate because they’re not going to offer these customers the best rate possible. They’re kind of holding them hostage and just giving them a mediocre rate because they know that they have nowhere to go.”
REFINANCING COULD ALSO POSE CHALLENGES
One way that home owners could reduce the payment shock is by extending their amortization. But doing so isn’t necessarily easy, warns Tran. He says that some homebuyers won’t qualify for a new mortgage due to the stress test while others might conclude that the costs of doing so are just too onerous.
“Anytime you make a major change like that you have to go through the whole nine yards again. You have to requalify, you have to go through the stress test again, you have to potentially get an appraisal done at your cost and you have to get a lawyer involved to register a new mortgage title, also at an additional cost,” he told CP24.com.
PATIENCE IS KEY
Butler says that his best advice to homeowners staring down an impending renewal is “not to panic.” He says that in many cases a bank might offer an early renewal with a so-called blended rate but he said taking such an offer is almost always a mistake, when it replaces a lower rate obtained prior to this recent run up in the cost of borrowing.
“Don’t give up 3.19 and take 5.1 as some kind of protection,” he said. “If you have a renewal coming up shop around, don’t blend and only start looking at it 90 days before the date of your renewal because you don’t want to give up that great rate. That just doesn’t make sense.”
TOKYO (AP) — Japanese technology group SoftBank swung back to profitability in the July-September quarter, boosted by positive results in its Vision Fund investments.
Tokyo-based SoftBank Group Corp. reported Tuesday a fiscal second quarter profit of nearly 1.18 trillion yen ($7.7 billion), compared with a 931 billion yen loss in the year-earlier period.
Quarterly sales edged up about 6% to nearly 1.77 trillion yen ($11.5 billion).
SoftBank credited income from royalties and licensing related to its holdings in Arm, a computer chip-designing company, whose business spans smartphones, data centers, networking equipment, automotive, consumer electronic devices, and AI applications.
The results were also helped by the absence of losses related to SoftBank’s investment in office-space sharing venture WeWork, which hit the previous fiscal year.
WeWork, which filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in 2023, emerged from Chapter 11 in June.
SoftBank has benefitted in recent months from rising share prices in some investment, such as U.S.-based e-commerce company Coupang, Chinese mobility provider DiDi Global and Bytedance, the Chinese developer of TikTok.
SoftBank’s financial results tend to swing wildly, partly because of its sprawling investment portfolio that includes search engine Yahoo, Chinese retailer Alibaba, and artificial intelligence company Nvidia.
SoftBank makes investments in a variety of companies that it groups together in a series of Vision Funds.
The company’s founder, Masayoshi Son, is a pioneer in technology investment in Japan. SoftBank Group does not give earnings forecasts.
Shopify Inc. executives brushed off concerns that incoming U.S. President Donald Trump will be a major detriment to many of the company’s merchants.
“There’s nothing in what we’ve heard from Trump, nor would there have been anything from (Democratic candidate) Kamala (Harris), which we think impacts the overall state of new business formation and entrepreneurship,” Shopify’s chief financial officer Jeff Hoffmeister told analysts on a call Tuesday.
“We still feel really good about all the merchants out there, all the entrepreneurs that want to start new businesses and that’s obviously not going to change with the administration.”
Hoffmeister’s comments come a week after Trump, a Republican businessman, trounced Harris in an election that will soon return him to the Oval Office.
On the campaign trail, he threatened to impose tariffs of 60 per cent on imports from China and roughly 10 per cent to 20 per cent on goods from all other countries.
If the president-elect makes good on the promise, many worry the cost of operating will soar for companies, including customers of Shopify, which sells e-commerce software to small businesses but also brands as big as Kylie Cosmetics and Victoria’s Secret.
These merchants may feel they have no choice but to pass on the increases to customers, perhaps sparking more inflation.
If Trump’s tariffs do come to fruition, Shopify’s president Harley Finkelstein pointed out China is “not a huge area” for Shopify.
However, “we can’t anticipate what every presidential administration is going to do,” he cautioned.
He likened the uncertainty facing the business community to the COVID-19 pandemic where Shopify had to help companies migrate online.
“Our job is no matter what comes the way of our merchants, we provide them with tools and service and support for them to navigate it really well,” he said.
Finkelstein was questioned about the forthcoming U.S. leadership change on a call meant to delve into Shopify’s latest earnings, which sent shares soaring 27 per cent to $158.63 shortly after Tuesday’s market open.
The Ottawa-based company, which keeps its books in U.S. dollars, reported US$828 million in net income for its third quarter, up from US$718 million in the same quarter last year, as its revenue rose 26 per cent.
Revenue for the period ended Sept. 30 totalled US$2.16 billion, up from US$1.71 billion a year earlier.
Subscription solutions revenue reached US$610 million, up from US$486 million in the same quarter last year.
Merchant solutions revenue amounted to US$1.55 billion, up from US$1.23 billion.
Shopify’s net income excluding the impact of equity investments totalled US$344 million for the quarter, up from US$173 million in the same quarter last year.
Daniel Chan, a TD Cowen analyst, said the results show Shopify has a leadership position in the e-commerce world and “a continued ability to gain market share.”
In its outlook for its fourth quarter of 2024, the company said it expects revenue to grow at a mid-to-high-twenties percentage rate on a year-over-year basis.
“Q4 guidance suggests Shopify will finish the year strong, with better-than-expected revenue growth and operating margin,” Chan pointed out in a note to investors.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 12, 2024.
TORONTO – RioCan Real Estate Investment Trust says it has cut almost 10 per cent of its staff as it deals with a slowdown in the condo market and overall pushes for greater efficiency.
The company says the cuts, which amount to around 60 employees based on its last annual filing, will mean about $9 million in restructuring charges and should translate to about $8 million in annualized cash savings.
The job cuts come as RioCan and others scale back condo development plans as the market softens, but chief executive Jonathan Gitlin says the reductions were from a companywide efficiency effort.
RioCan says it doesn’t plan to start any new construction of mixed-use properties this year and well into 2025 as it adjusts to the shifting market demand.
The company reported a net income of $96.9 million in the third quarter, up from a loss of $73.5 million last year, as it saw a $159 million boost from a favourable change in the fair value of investment properties.
RioCan reported what it says is a record-breaking 97.8 per cent occupancy rate in the quarter including retail committed occupancy of 98.6 per cent.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 12, 2024.
