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‘Evidence based’ does not mean there is no politics

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L-R: Health and Community Services Minister John Haggie, Premier Dwight Ball and Chief Medical Officer of Health Janice Fitzgerald. (Government of Newfoundland and Labrador/YouTube)

 

Early this month, Newfoundland and Labrador moved to Alert Level 4, the first step in the government’s reopening of the economy. Though slowly reopening, sweeping new powers have been granted to police and health inspectors to enforce public health orders, notably domestic travel restrictions.

This gives force to health minister John Haggie’s one-liner, “If you come from away, you best stay away.”

Premier Dwight Ball and Minister Haggie insist that there is “nothing political” in their decisions because they are just following the advice of Dr. Janice Fitzgerald, Newfoundland and Labrador’s chief medical officer of health. That kind of claim is a sidestep that tries to hide political choices behind scientific expertise.

Given the political risks of a bad reopening, a temptation is to turtle.

As we begin to peak out of our self-isolation, it’s important to remember that different provinces and different countries are all handling SARS-CoV2 (the virus that causes the disease COVID-19) differently.

At present there is a lack of consensus across scientific disciplines — like clinical medicine, epidemiology and virology — about what is required to mitigate risks for public safety. This scientific disagreement is to be expected, given that the coronavirus is “novel.” But, it also leads to very different policy recommendations, all of which can make some claim to being “science based” or “evidence based.”

Sweden’s response to the coronavirus was arguably the most radical. Under epidemiologist Dr. Anders Tegnell’s guidance, Sweden imposed almost no lockdown. Some might worry about Sweden’s higher than expected mortality rate, but as yet, there is no evidence that this was because of the plan or some other complicating factor.

 

Testing for COVID-19 in Montreal. (Ivanoh Demers/Radio-Canada)

 

Just 50 cases per 100K

Quebec began reopening on May 4 under the guidance of Dr. Horacio Arruda. Outside of Montreal and Joliette, children returned to school on May 11 despite the province having 453 cases per 100,000 people, the highest in Canada. Quebec, like Alberta, continues to manage higher-case areas carefully.

Here in Newfoundland and Labrador there have been just 50 cases per 100,000. Yet, Minister Haggie warns that we will return to Alert Level 5 if there is an increase in cases. With few cases overall and so few new cases, the incidence of COVID-19 in this province can hardly do anything but increase. This suggests that Newfoundland and Labrador’s leadership may be working with expectations out of step with realities.

Confronted with the possibility of electoral defeat if COVID-19 resurges, science becomes a political tool.

The purpose of the lockdown was to flatten the curve and protect the hospital system from being swamped, not rid us of COVID-19. We were never going to win a “war” against the coronavirus. As we go about reopening, the critical tools are laboratory capacity, test-kit supply-chains and contact-tracing infrastructure. The aim now is to dampen down COVID-19 cases and keep ICU capacity balanced with need.

Yet, in this province and elsewhere, political leaders do not spend much time discussing the details of testing and contact tracing. Instead, their main response has been to impose ongoing travel restrictions which must now withstand the scrutiny of a charter challenge. All this despite the fact that the best available epidemiological evidence suggests that border policing has limited effectiveness.

 

Quebec Premier Francois Legault speaks to the media at the daily COVID-19 press briefing, Thursday, May 21, 2020 in Montreal. (Ryan Remiorz/The Canadian Press)

 

‘Science becomes a political tool’

It is noteworthy that the premier with the highest popularity, Françios Legault, is pursuing the most aggressive reopening strategy despite the prevalence of COVID-19 in Quebec. Elsewhere political prudence suggests different courses of action. In Newfoundland and Labrador, the Liberal leadership, and soon the premiership, is up for grabs. There is no savvy politician who is not aware that much depends on the reopening.

Confronted with the possibility of electoral defeat if COVID-19 resurges, science becomes a political tool. The tool works like this. On the one hand, if reopening goes badly, the response will be, “we were following the best science in an unprecedented situation, so we’re not to blame.” On the other hand, if the reopening goes well, the response will be, “our unique and amazing leadership resulted in a great outcome.”

Given the political risks of a bad reopening, a temptation is to turtle.

Keep the public fearful, borders locked and schools, universities and business shuttered as long as possible. Just hunker down and wait for the white-coats to come to the rescue with a vaccine! That’s little more than an optimistic political gamble, however.

 

A staff member tests samples of the COVID-19 inactivated vaccine at a vaccine production plant of China National Pharmaceutical Group in Beijing, capital of China, April 11, 2020. (Zhang Yuwei/Xinhua/Getty)

 

‘Herd immunity’

There are reportedly at least 100 vaccine candidates with a handful fast-tracked to preliminary clinical trials. But there are many hurdles to overcome. A vaccine may turn out to be ineffective because it does not generate a strong enough immune response. It may have unforeseen and unintended consequences. Worst of all, a vaccine might not be effective against an emergent mutation of SARS-CoV2. Even if a vaccine becomes available, it likely will not be available for a year or much longer.

For many of the same reasons, we also should not expect “herd immunity” to be achievable. There is a distinct possibility that this virus does not conveniently go away. It is both scientifically and politically naive to hint otherwise. Going forward, it should be fully expected that Newfoundland and Labrador will experience more COVID-19 cases and higher rates of hospitalization.

Decisions about acceptable risks are inherently political decisions.

It is more reasonable to expect that the coronavirus becomes part of a new normal. There is the unhappy but real prospect that annual COVID-19 deaths will become another unpleasant fact, like the 24 people who died in highway accidents in the province last year. We could all stop driving, but we don’t, because we have come to accept this risk and the deaths. As we collectively come to terms with the risks of the coronavirus, we will need to be attentive to the ways in which those who are vulnerable are disproportionately affected by the virus.

Decisions about acceptable risks are inherently political decisions. In the case of SARS-CoV2, there must be many political decisions because the science is not yet all that clear. There are many ways to approach reopening compatible with the best available science. In the absence of a single right way to go forward, political judgements must be made about what is to be done. These judgments must be a matter of extensive and ongoing political debate as well as public consultation. Leaders here and elsewhere should not be allowed to pretend that they are somehow just following “science.”

 

Source:cbc-ca

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Edited By Harry Miller

Politics

Review finds no case for formal probe of Beijing’s activities under elections law

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OTTAWA – The federal agency that investigates election infractions found insufficient evidence to support suggestions Beijing wielded undue influence against the Conservatives in the Vancouver area during the 2021 general election.

The Commissioner of Canada Elections’ recently completed review of the lingering issue was tabled Tuesday at a federal inquiry into foreign interference.

The review focused on the unsuccessful campaign of Conservative candidate Kenny Chiu in the riding of Steveston-Richmond East and the party’s larger efforts in the Vancouver area.

It says the evidence uncovered did not trigger the threshold to initiate a formal investigation under the Canada Elections Act.

Investigators therefore recommended that the review be concluded.

A summary of the review results was shared with the Canadian Security Intelligence Service and the RCMP. The review says both agencies indicated the election commissioner’s findings were consistent with their own understanding of the situation.

During the exercise, the commissioner’s investigators met with Chinese Canadian residents of Chiu’s riding and surrounding ones.

They were told of an extensive network of Chinese Canadian associations, businesses and media organizations that offers the diaspora a lifestyle that mirrors that of China in many ways.

“Further, this diaspora has continuing and extensive commercial, social and familial relations with China,” the review says.

Some interviewees reported that this “has created aspects of a parallel society involving many Chinese Canadians in the Lower Mainland area, which includes concerted support, direction and control by individuals from or involved with China’s Vancouver consulate and the United Front Work Department (UFWD) in China.”

Investigators were also made aware of members of three Chinese Canadian associations, as well as others, who were alleged to have used their positions to influence the choice of Chinese Canadian voters during the 2021 election in a direction favourable to the interests of Beijing, the review says.

These efforts were sparked by elements of the Conservative party’s election platform and by actions and statements by Chiu “that were leveraged to bolster claims that both the platform and Chiu were anti-China and were encouraging anti-Chinese discrimination and racism.”

These messages were amplified through repetition in social media, chat groups and posts, as well as in Chinese in online, print and radio media throughout the Vancouver area.

Upon examination, the messages “were found to not be in contravention” of the Canada Elections Act, says the review, citing the Supreme Court of Canada’s position that the concept of uninhibited speech permeates all truly democratic societies and institutions.

The review says the effectiveness of the anti-Conservative, anti-Chiu campaigns was enhanced by circumstances “unique to the Chinese diaspora and the assertive nature of Chinese government interests.”

It notes the election was prefaced by statements from China’s ambassador to Canada and the Vancouver consul general as well as articles published or broadcast in Beijing-controlled Chinese Canadian media entities.

“According to Chinese Canadian interview subjects, this invoked a widespread fear amongst electors, described as a fear of retributive measures from Chinese authorities should a (Conservative) government be elected.”

This included the possibility that Chinese authorities could interfere with travel to and from China, as well as measures being taken against family members or business interests in China, the review says.

“Several Chinese Canadian interview subjects were of the view that Chinese authorities could exercise such retributive measures, and that this fear was most acute with Chinese Canadian electors from mainland China. One said ‘everybody understands’ the need to only say nice things about China.”

However, no interview subject was willing to name electors who were directly affected by the anti-Tory campaign, nor community leaders who claimed to speak on a voter’s behalf.

Several weeks of public inquiry hearings will focus on the capacity of federal agencies to detect, deter and counter foreign meddling.

In other testimony Tuesday, Conservative MP Garnett Genuis told the inquiry that parliamentarians who were targeted by Chinese hackers could have taken immediate protective steps if they had been informed sooner.

It emerged earlier this year that in 2021 some MPs and senators faced cyberattacks from the hackers because of their involvement with the Inter-Parliamentary Alliance on China, which pushes for accountability from Beijing.

In 2022, U.S. authorities apparently informed the Canadian government of the attacks, and it in turn advised parliamentary IT officials — but not individual MPs.

Genuis, a Canadian co-chair of the inter-parliamentary alliance, told the inquiry Tuesday that it remains mysterious to him why he wasn’t informed about the attacks sooner.

Liberal MP John McKay, also a Canadian co-chair of the alliance, said there should be a clear protocol for advising parliamentarians of cyberthreats.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 17, 2024.

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NDP beat Conservatives in federal byelection in Winnipeg

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WINNIPEG – The federal New Democrats have kept a longtime stronghold in the Elmwood-Transcona riding in Winnipeg.

The NDP’s Leila Dance won a close battle over Conservative candidate Colin Reynolds, and says the community has spoken in favour of priorities such as health care and the cost of living.

Elmwood-Transcona has elected a New Democrat in every election except one since the riding was formed in 1988.

The seat became open after three-term member of Parliament Daniel Blaikie resigned in March to take a job with the Manitoba government.

A political analyst the NDP is likely relieved to have kept the seat in what has been one of their strongest urban areas.

Christopher Adams, an adjunct professor of political studies at the University of Manitoba, says NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh worked hard to keep the seat in a tight race.

“He made a number of visits to Winnipeg, so if they had lost this riding it would have been disastrous for the NDP,” Adams said.

The strong Conservative showing should put wind in that party’s sails, Adams added, as their percentage of the popular vote in Elmwood-Transcona jumped sharply from the 2021 election.

“Even though the Conservatives lost this (byelection), they should walk away from it feeling pretty good.”

Dance told reporters Monday night she wants to focus on issues such as the cost of living while working in Ottawa.

“We used to be able to buy a cart of groceries for a hundred dollars and now it’s two small bags. That is something that will affect everyone in this riding,” Dance said.

Liberal candidate Ian MacIntyre placed a distant third,

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 16, 2024

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Trudeau says ‘all sorts of reflections’ for Liberals after loss of second stronghold

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OTTAWA – Prime Minister Justin Trudeau say the Liberals have “all sorts of reflections” to make after losing a second stronghold in a byelection in Montreal Monday night.

His comments come as the Liberal cabinet gathers for its first regularly scheduled meeting of the fall sitting of Parliament, which began Monday.

Trudeau’s Liberals were hopeful they could retain the Montreal riding of LaSalle—Émard—Verdun, but those hopes were dashed after the Bloc Québécois won it in an extremely tight three-way race with the NDP.

Louis-Philippe Sauvé, an administrator at the Institute for Research in Contemporary Economics, beat Liberal candidate Laura Palestini by less than 250 votes. The NDP finished about 600 votes back of the winner.

It is the second time in three months that Trudeau’s party lost a stronghold in a byelection. In June, the Conservatives defeated the Liberals narrowly in Toronto-St. Paul’s.

The Liberals won every seat in Toronto and almost every seat on the Island of Montreal in the last election, and losing a seat in both places has laid bare just how low the party has fallen in the polls.

“Obviously, it would have been nicer to be able to win and hold (the Montreal riding), but there’s more work to do and we’re going to stay focused on doing it,” Trudeau told reporters ahead of this morning’s cabinet meeting.

When asked what went wrong for his party, Trudeau responded “I think there’s all sorts of reflections to take on that.”

In French, he would not say if this result puts his leadership in question, instead saying his team has lots of work to do.

Bloc leader Yves-François Blanchet will hold a press conference this morning, but has already said the results are significant for his party.

“The victory is historic and all of Quebec will speak with a stronger voice in Ottawa,” Blanchet wrote on X, shortly after the winner was declared.

NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh and his party had hoped to ride to a win in Montreal on the popularity of their candidate, city councillor Craig Sauvé, and use it to further their goal of replacing the Liberals as the chief alternative to the Conservatives.

The NDP did hold on to a seat in Winnipeg in a tight race with the Conservatives, but the results in Elmwood-Transcona Monday were far tighter than in the last several elections. NDP candidate Leila Dance defeated Conservative Colin Reynolds by about 1,200 votes.

Singh called it a “big victory.”

“Our movement is growing — and we’re going to keep working for Canadians and building that movement to stop Conservative cuts before they start,” he said on social media.

“Big corporations have had their governments. It’s the people’s time.”

New Democrats recently pulled out of their political pact with the government in a bid to distance themselves from the Liberals, making the prospects of a snap election far more likely.

Trudeau attempted to calm his caucus at their fall retreat in Nanaimo, B.C, last week, and brought former Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney on as an economic adviser in a bid to shore up some credibility with voters.

The latest byelection loss will put more pressure on him as leader, with many polls suggesting voter anger is more directed at Trudeau himself than at Liberal policies.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 17, 2024.

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