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Economy

Ex-Bank of Israel chief warns government’s moves harming economy, weakening shekel – The Times of Israel

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A leading economist who formerly set Israel’s fiscal policy escalated his rhetoric Wednesday against planned government moves to weaken the judiciary, impassionedly warning they could leave the economy in shambles and dismissing the current attempts by the coalition to calm the mounting economic concerns as “an insult to people’s intelligence.”

Jacob Frenkel, who headed the Bank of Israel from 1991 to 2000 and until recently chaired JP Morgan Chase International, lamented that each day of the government’s legislative blitz made the situation worse, as Israel’s international image is dealt a serious blow and major companies and investors move elsewhere.

“It should worry us very much,” Frenkel told Channel 12 news when asked about the weakening of the Israeli shekel (NIS), which over the past month has lost almost 10 percent of its value relative to the US dollar.

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“The [value of the] shekel is a reflection of the reality behind it. We have a situation of total uncertainty — economic uncertainty, political uncertainty and institutional uncertainty, which affects all components of the economy: Consumers, manufacturers, investors, the ordinary citizen,” he said. “And this uncertainty is homemade, it isn’t an external shock.

“We’ve had an amazing run with years of stability, and with one fell swoop, with irresponsible decisions, all that can be damaged.”

Frenkel has repeatedly sounded the alarm over the past month, but none of his past remarks were as blunt as those in Wednesday’s TV interview.

He was asked about the recent call by Foreign Minister Eli Cohen on the government to intervene in the Bank of Israel’s work after its Governor Amir Yaron once again increased the interest rate, to 4.25%, the eighth time it has been hiked in 10 months in attempts to rein in inflation.

Bank of Israel Governor Amir Yaron speaks during a press conference at the Bank of Israel in Jerusalem, January 2, 2023. (Yonatan Sindel/Flash90)

Cohen’s urging of government intervention destabilized matters even further, forcing Netanyahu to issue three statements in as many days aimed at promising that the Bank of Israel will remain independent.

“I thought this argument was behind us,” Frenkel said. “Today, someone questions the [central bank] governor’s authority? We have inflation in Israel, and the government decided it wants stability in prices. The primary tool to achieve that is the interest rate, and the governor must be allowed to work. Every noise of this type… increases the inflationary pressure and will force the governor to continue using the interest rate tool.

“The main question is whether we want to be a proper country, with separate authorities that have roles, responsibilities and professionals — and not everything is political,” Frenkel said heatedly.

The legal overhaul would grant the government total control over the appointment of judges, including to the High Court, all but eliminate the High Court’s ability to review and strike down legislation, and allow politicians to appoint — and fire — their own legal advisers.

A broad and vocal chorus of criticism stretching from the judiciary through civil society and the business community has warned that the overhaul moves will essentially neuter Israel’s democratic system of checks and balances. Meanwhile, local officials and foreign allies have expressed worries that the moves could leave minority rights unprotected, and the business community has warned that the turmoil could sour the investment environment in Israel, heaping more pressure on the government to enter talks and water down the plans.

Former Bank of Israel Governor Jacob Frenkel, left, and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at a press conference at the Knesset in Jerusalem, June 24, 2013. (Miriam Alster / Flash90)

Asked about the impact of the process on the country’s economy, Frenkel said: “It endangers it, but it’s not too late yet. We can stop the carriage from going downhill. But every day, the situation worsens, because our image is suffering very serious blows.”

Frenkel said that not only are major companies and investors increasingly moving their money outside Israel, but the country is also losing its human capital, and with it, critical knowledge in various fields.

“For years we were proud that we are a ‘startup nation.’ Why endanger that?” he said, adding that the expedited manner in which the government is advancing its sweeping reforms gives the distinct impression of “underhanded opportunism.”

Asked about widespread claims by members and backers of the government that the economic scare is being purposely created and fanned by political rivals, Frenkel became even more impassioned, saying the question wasn’t about the legitimacy of a democratically elected government, but about calming down large parts of the public that genuinely fear its moves will harm the economy.

“If the public isn’t convinced, please convince it. And if the public is right, please listen to it,” he said, citing President Isaac Herzog’s plea to halt the legislative process and hold negotiations to forge a widely accepted judicial reform. “How can you so blatantly degrade the president’s request?”

President Isaac Herzog delivers a message to the nation from his office in Jerusalem, February 12, 2023. (Haim Zach/GPO)

“It isn’t right to accuse anyone who asks a question of having a political agenda. Politicians must understand that investors are independent and are capable of managing their affairs without the government,” he said. “Not everything is political. People have real patriotism, investors and Jewish communities in Israel and abroad care about the country, and they don’t want to see destruction.

“Please wake up, before the country goes downhill. There is a good chance of reversing the trend because the infrastructure is strong. We have much to lose, and we shouldn’t lose our compass.

“People have intelligence — it is an insult to their intelligence to come and tell them: ‘Trust us,’ when they don’t trust them. Please, prove it.”

Netanyahu didn’t directly respond to Frenkel’s interview, but during a cabinet meeting Thursday he rejected the mounting economic concerns voiced by him and many other prominent critics.

“There are some who are trying to destabilize Israel’s economy and to create hysteria for political reasons, hysteria that has no ground in reality,” he claimed during the meeting, which discussed the upcoming state budget.

“Israel’s economy is strong and it will keep getting stronger. Thanks to our power, thanks to the independence of the Bank of Israel, which will be preserved, and thanks to the responsible and active economic policy we are leading. Those who sow hysteria and fear will be proven wrong.”

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Economy

As economy faces potential recession, Liberals to release 'tricky' budget Tuesday – Financial Post

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OTTAWA — The federal Liberals are set to unveil a budget on Tuesday intended to showcase their plans to keep Canada competitive amid the clean energy transition while supporting Canadians who are struggling with affordability.

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Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland has promised to accomplish as much over the last few weeks, while also pledging to keep the budget fiscally restrained.

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But that balancing act isn’t expected to be easy. A slowing Canadian economy could weigh on government coffers.

“It’s going to be very tricky for the federal government,” said Randall Bartlett, a senior director of Canadian economics at Desjardins.

The Liberals are expected to invest considerably in Canada’s clean energy transition, in an attempt to keep Canada competitive with the United States as it launches its own aggressive measures.

The Inflation Reduction Act, signed into law last August by U.S. President Joe Biden, invests nearly US$400 billion in everything from critical minerals to battery manufacturing, electric vehicles and clean electricity, including hydrogen.

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Ottawa has also promised big bucks for health care. It recently signed 10-year funding agreements with provinces on health-care transfers, and that spending is expected to be accounted for in the budget.

And with the cost of living still a top economic issue for many Canadians, the Liberals have signalled the budget will include new affordability measures.

“In the weeks to come, for those Canadians who feel the bite of rising prices the most acutely, for our most vulnerable friends and neighbours, our government will deliver additional, targeted inflation relief,” Freeland said in Oshawa, Ont. on Monday.

But Bartlett said the federal government has to balance its big-ticket spending priorities with an uncertain economic outlook.

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Many economists are forecasting that Canada could enter a recession this year as high interest rates weigh on the economy. Since March 2022, the Bank of Canada has aggressively raised interest rates to crack down on high inflation.

As global price pressures ease and interest rates dampen spending in the economy, inflation has been slowing. Canada’s annual inflation rate has tumbled from 8.1 per cent in the summer to 5.2 per cent in February.

Even as inflation becomes less of a problem, though, a slowing economy means less government revenues to finance spending.

According to a report from Desjardins, new spending measures alone wouldn’t necessarily put federal finances on an unsustainable path. But if significant new spending is paired with a worse-than-expected economic downturn, that could spell trouble for the federal government, the report says.

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“Planning for an optimistic future and spending accordingly now could lead to very challenging circumstances going forward,” Bartlett said.

The federal government also runs the risk of fuelling inflation with excessive spending, making the Bank of Canada’s job of cooling inflation more challenging. Freeland has repeatedly said she doesn’t plan on doing that, noting the federal government can’t compensate all Canadians for the rise in prices.

Bartlett said the federal government so far has done a good job balancing the need to help low-income Canadians while avoiding adding fuel to the fire.

“My concern is this that (if) they continue to layer this on top of additional spending for other other initiatives … it’s not only going to make potentially the Bank of Canada’s job more challenging, but it’s also going to just increase the size of the deficit at a time when the economic outlook is very uncertain,” he said.

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There is some ambiguity around how the government will approach tax policy in this year’s budget.

Some policy experts have suggested that increasing tax revenues might be part of the solution when it comes to stabilizing federal finances. A shadow budget put together for the C.D. Howe Institute, an economic thinktank, recommended increasing the GST tax rate.

But Bartlett said raising taxes might be a tough sell for Canadians, especially because the federal government has had mixed results on some of its key areas of investment, such as its national housing strategy.

“If we continue to see increased spending, and that requires tax increases to to afford that spending, there’s going to be … increased scrutiny by the public on whether or not we’re getting the bang for the buck,” Bartlett said.

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On the political front, the Liberals also have to contend with New Democrat priorities as outlined in the party’s supply-and-confidence agreement with the Liberals. It agreed to support the minority government in key votes until 2025 — including on federal budgets — in exchange for movement on shared priorities.

In the upcoming budget, NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh has said he wants to see the government extend the six-month boost to the GST rebate, introduced last fall, which temporarily doubled the amount people received.

Singh has also said he’d like to see federal funding for school lunches.

Per the parties’ agreement, the Liberals have already agreed to create a federally funded and administered dental care program this year that would replace the dental benefit for children in low-income families that was rolled out in the fall.

The deal also commits the Liberals to passing legislation on a national pharmacare program by the end of 2023 — although there’s been no sign of movement on that yet.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published March 26, 2023.

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Economy

Property Sector Biggest Overhang for China Economy: Hong – Bloomberg

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Property Sector Biggest Overhang for China Economy: Hong  Bloomberg

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Economy

Prices are High: Yet Inflation has dropped to 5.2%

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The Inflation rate remains relatively high at 5.2% but it has declined reasonably since the interest rates began to rock and roll upwards.

Will the decision be made to raise rates further or drop them? I believe the rates will stay where they are or go up a further point. America will be increasing its rates in an effort to quell its own inflation, and our government will follow suit as usual. A Federal election may well be announced once the inflation rate in Canada has halved itself. Interest rates will be allowed to decline and the public will show their support for the Liberals in kind.

More importantly, why are prices still extremely high while inflation continues to drop? Greed and Shrinkflation of course. Any manufacturer knows the marketplace in Canada and the US has rebounded since mid-summer 2022. Supply chain problems aside, the decline of needed products that once were earmarked for North American Markets have been redirected to China and Indian needs. This is deliberate of course, allowing those manufacturers in Asian Markets to demand higher prices. Products within the retail sector have gone up in price or the price remains the same while the product has been reduced in size. After 2020-2021, most retailers did increase their prices and realized that our markets still were prepared to purchase what was needed, so they will retain their higher prices until forced to change their pricing structure in the near future.

Has this increase in slowing the economy work? North America’s Economy has been booming since mid-summer 2022. Growth rates in the US show promise, and Canada’s Economy has benefited from the boom to the south. America’s President Biden continues to sell its America First purchasing policy putting Canada’s Liberal Government into a fear fest spin. Trump’s “make America great again has been followed by Biden’s purchase American 1st”. Federal Agencies must purchase American manufactured products and services 1st, before giving foreign firms a chance to bid. Canada’s begun to apply taxes on various products in an effort to pay down their massive public debt. Beer and most forms of booze and other items that fall into the luxury tax sector are being targeted.

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Have you noticed that most media outlets have refused to offer an attitude of clarity with regard to higher prices and inflation? Why are prices so high? Most so-called specialists claim various reasons why, while others insist grocers are not making loads of money, surviving on a 2-4% profit margin.
Would it not be nice to see a media broadcaster or journalist come out with something like this…

“The Public is being taken for a ride by basically everyone within the retail-manufacturing sectors”
“It’s greed baby, with a side of massive profiteering”.

Canadian and US Corporations are taking our funds to the bank, and we are letting them do so. The public continues to buy what they want on credit while complaining all the more. And did our government demand that essential items needed by the public be made locally, and not imported from some distant land? Words with no follow-up, propaganda with no real power behind them. Instead of going after the wayward profiteering firms, our governments are canceling funding programs for the businesses most damaged by the pandemic(restaurants and Mom & Pop Stores) and also pursuing some individuals that asked for CERB. Governments are and will continue to create new taxes and tax us, while they let the wealthy hide their fortunes in banking centers throughout the world. The government is so comfortable that it will pursue a policy of taxation that strikes at the most vulnerable, our elderly, who also have within their bank accounts @ 3.2 trillion Canadian and much more in America. The average Canadian Boomer is worth @$206,000 and the government and many corporations want some of that.

Like Premier Ford said last year…Ontario is back in business. So to the taxation hikes to come.

Why do our governments allow corporations to blind us with advertising propaganda while their hands are in our pockets, robbing us blind? The very basics of foodstuff, energy demands, and housing needs are pushing many towards a credit crisis never seen before. If the public fails, so do their public governments.

Steven Kaszab
Bradford, Ontario
skaszab@yahoo.ca

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