The recent overhaul of Exxon Mobil Corp‘s board of directors could shift billions of dollars in spending and strategy over several years, but any changes likely will take time, analysts and investors say.
A quarter of directors last month lost their seats to outsiders, and the March appointment of activist Jeff Ubben puts a third of the 12-member board in new and more cost-conscious hands. Investors who rejected Exxon’s view of a slow transition to lower-carbon fuels also want spending to be revisited, they said.
The Exxon boardroom contest shocked the energy industry and came after years of weak financial returns at the largest U.S. oil producer. Shares are up by about 50% this year as oil prices have recovered from pandemic lows.
Exxon’s board has been a prestige post for former CEOs, typically without any energy experience. Critics said the practice led Exxon to miss industry shifts and play catch-up at the expense of its balance sheet. Exxon bought in to natural gas near its peak, leading it to reduce the value of properties in the United States, Canada and Argentina by more than $19 billion last year, and paid up to arrive late to the shale oil party.
New directors with energy experience likely will address Exxon’s spending “far more vigorously,” said Anne Simpson, investment director at shareholder California Public Employees’ Retirement System.
Investors want a “fundamental rethink on strategy,” she said, with “the big measure” being its $16 billion-$19 billion annual project spending. The shakeup puts in play billions of dollars in shale, liquefied natural gas, refining and chemical projects.
Asked to comment on its new board and strategy, Exxon said only that it welcomed the new directors. “We look forward to working with them collectively to benefit all of our shareholders.”
STRATEGY REVIEW
Exxon needs “a real review of its strategy” in the wake of last month’s International Energy Agency report that challenges the need for new projects if the world wants to reach net-zero emissions by mid-century, said Bess Joffe, head of responsible investment at the Church Commissioners for England.
“The board is going to have to adapt” by giving investors more information on projects and environmental, social, and governance issues, or ESG, said David Larcker, director of the Corporate Governance Research Initiative at Stanford Graduate School of Business.
“It’s just not a company that can turn on a dime,” Larcker cautioned, adding that this year’s budget is set. It is midway into big outlays in Guyana, Brazil, U.S. shale and chemicals, analysts said.
Existing directors believe coupling oil and gas investment with a gradual shift to alternative energy is Exxon’s best path forward, long-time director Ursula Burns said at a virtual event hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas last week.
Exxon failed to communicate the importance of that phase-in to investors, she said.
“It has not been well done by Exxon Mobil for sure and that’s one of the things that we have to work on is how do we tell the story,” said Burns, who has served in many roles including as former chairman and CEO of Xerox Corp.
She said Exxon did not pay attention early enough to public frustration over global warming and ESG. Investors, she said, “wanted a direct, in some cases, (and) in some ways, an impossible message to be given.” Burns added that “most of the board” thinks an energy transition is needed and that companies like Exxon need to be engaged in how that happens.
LOCKED-IN PROJECTS
Energy analysts do not see Exxon slashing its biggest ventures – offshore oil in Guyana and Brazil, or liquefied natural gas (LNG) in Asia and the United States – due to long-term commitments. It already has cut spending in the United States and could lower further, they said.
Guyana and Brazil’s offshore fields will be prioritized, said Ruaraidh Montgomery at researcher Welligence. LNG projects that supplant oil production also can help Exxon reduce emissions, said Tom Ellacott, at consultants Wood Mackenzie.
In the United States, Exxon has sharply cut drilling and reduced its shale output goals to 700,000 barrels per day from 1 million. But even there, Exxon’s multi-year projects “are hard to undo,” said Peter McNally, an analyst with investment research firm Third Bridge Group.
However, investors are not buying the poor-messaging explanation or belief that spending decisions cannot be revisited.
“This is a call to reassess fundamentals of supply and demand for energy in the long term, and to question whether Exxon’s current thinking around renewables gaining market share is too modest,” said Stewart Glickman, analyst at CFRA Research, in a client note.
(Reporting by Jennifer Hiller in Houston; Editing by Gary McWilliams and Matthew Lewis)
Demands for government intervention in Air Canada labour talks could negatively affect airline competition in Canada, the CEO of travel company Transat AT Inc. said.
“The extension of such an extraordinary intervention to Air Canada would be an undeniable competitive advantage to the detriment of other Canadian airlines,” Annick Guérard told analysts on an earnings conference call on Thursday.
“The time and urgency is now. It is time to restore healthy competition in Canada,” she added.
Air Canada has asked the federal government to be ready to intervene and request arbitration as early as this weekend to avoid disruptions.
Comments on the potential Air Canada pilot strike or lock out came as Transat reported third-quarter financial results.
Guérard recalled Transat’s labour negotiations with its flight attendants earlier this year, which the company said it handled without asking for government intervention.
The airline’s 2,100 flight attendants voted 99 per cent in favour of a strike mandate and twice rejected tentative deals before approving a new collective agreement in late February.
As the collective agreement for Air Transat pilots ends in June next year, Guérard anticipates similar pressure to increase overall wages as seen in Air Canada’s negotiations, but reckons it will come out “as a win, win, win deal.”
“The pilots are preparing on their side, we are preparing on our side and we’re confident that we’re going to come up with a reasonable deal,” she told analysts when asked about the upcoming negotiations.
The parent company of Air Transat reported it lost $39.9 million or $1.03 per diluted share in its quarter ended July 31. The result compared with a profit of $57.3 million or $1.49 per diluted share a year earlier.
Revenue totalled $736.2 million, down from $746.3 million in the same quarter last year.
On an adjusted basis, Transat says it lost $1.10 per share in its latest quarter compared with an adjusted profit of $1.10 per share a year earlier.
It attributed reduced revenues to lower airline unit revenues, competition, industry-wide overcapacity and economic uncertainty.
Air Transat is also among the airlines facing challenges related to the recall of Pratt & Whitney turbofan jet engines for inspection and repair.
The recall has so far grounded six aircraft, Guérard said on the call.
“We have agreed to financial compensation for grounded aircraft during the 2023-2024 period,” she said. “Alongside this financial compensation, Pratt & Whitney will provide us with two additional spare engines, which we intend to monetize through a sell and lease back transaction.”
Looking ahead, the CEO said she expects consumer demand to remain somewhat uncertain amid high interest rates.
“We are currently seeing ongoing pricing pressure extending into the winter season,” she added. Air Transat is not planning on adding additional aircraft next year but anticipates stability.
“(2025) for us will be much more stable than 2024 in terms of fleet movements and operation, and this will definitely have a positive effect on cost and customer satisfaction as well,” the CEO told analysts.
“We are more and more moving away from all the disruption that we had to go through early in 2024,” she added.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 12, 2024.
