Eyes on Trump and the US Midterms: Crossroads for American Politics? - Nippon.com | Canada News Media
Connect with us

Politics

Eyes on Trump and the US Midterms: Crossroads for American Politics? – Nippon.com

Published

 on


Veteran journalist and Washington watcher Aida Hirotsugu discusses the significance of the upcoming US midterm elections for Trumpism and the partisan realignment that is transforming US politics.

The November 8 US midterm elections are right around the corner, and the congressional races are drawing worldwide attention as a measure of the power and influence of former President Donald Trump. During the primary elections to choose the two major parties’ candidates, Trump tightened his control over the Republican Party (GOP) in hopes of recapturing the White House in 2024. Meanwhile, federal and local authorities are pursuing multiple investigations into Trump’s conduct, including alleged election interference, the president’s role in the January 6 insurrection, and the removal of classified documents from the White House. Concerns about a Trump comeback and its implications for American democracy are exacerbating global angst in a world already deeply shaken by the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Perils of Midterm Elections

The US midterm elections take place once every four years, at the halfway point between presidential elections. They are held to fill all 435 seats in the House of Representatives and one-third of the 100 Senate seats (35 this time around). Also up for grabs on November 8 are 36 out of 50 state governorships, along with other state and local posts.

Historically, the president’s party has tended to lose ground in these elections. Since 1950, the governing party has lost an average of 3 Senate seats and 25 House seats per midterm election. In 2010, halfway through the first term of the relatively popular President Barack Obama, the Democratic Party lost 6 Senate seats and a full 63 House seats.

Although the popularity of the incumbent president certainly plays a part, local issues frequently dominate state and local election campaigns, making the results unreliable predictors of the presidential election to come. What makes this midterm special?

Biden and the Double-Edged Abortion Ruling

One factor is President Joe Biden’s extraordinarily low numbers. In July, his public job approval rating dropped to 37% (according to RealClearPolitics), placing him alongside Trump as one of the least popular presidents of the post–World War II era. A July New York Times/Siena College poll found that 64% of Democratic voters wanted someone other than Biden to be the Democratic presidential nominee in 2024. The biggest factor behind the latest slump in the president’s approval ratings is doubtless inflation, which hit 9% in June for the first time in 40 years and has outpaced growth in wages.

The Democratic Party currently maintains a razor-thin majority in Congress, controlling 220 out of 435 seats in the House and just half of the 100 Senate seats, with the vice-president acting as tie-breaker. A few months ago, pundits looked at Biden’s approval ratings and predicted heavy midterm losses for the Democrats, but recent trends have raised the Democrats’ hopes somewhat. Gasoline prices have fallen from their spring peak, helping to blunt inflation. Moreover, the Democratic-led Congress has passed significant legislation, including the $430 billion Inflation Reduction Act (a much smaller package than Biden had originally proposed but an achievement nonetheless), new gun control legislation, and a law authorizing government funding for semiconductor research and production. Biden is also wooing young voters with a student loan forgiveness plan announced on August 24. Earlier in the month, the president confirmed the death of al-Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri in a CIA counterterrorism operation in Kabul (as if in compensation for the disastrous withdrawal from Afghanistan that so damaged his standing a year earlier).

The Democrats have also received an unexpected boost from the conservative-dominated Supreme Court’s June 24 ruling reversing the high court’s 1973 Roe v. Wade decision on abortion rights. Religious conservatives had been lobbying for a half century to overturn Roe v. Wade, which established a woman’s right to end her pregnancy any time before the point of fetal viability. But the June decision, initially viewed as a victory for Republicans, has had the effect of rallying the Left and women in general. In a referendum in early August, voters in the solidly conservative state of Kansas voted no on a referendum calling for a state constitutional amendment revoking women’s right to an abortion.

The president’s approval rating has climbed back above 40%, and recent opinion polls show voters roughly divided as to whether they will back a Democratic or Republican congressional candidate in the upcoming election. As of early September, analysts were predicting that the Democrats would maintain their bare majority in the Senate. The GOP is still expected to overtake the Democrats in the House of Representatives, but only by a margin of about 10 seats—far less than the landslide previously predicted. All that said, much could change between now and November 8, particularly with regard to inflation, the single biggest election issue.

Eyes on Trump and His GOP

If Biden’s Democratic Party loses control of Congress, then the nation will face two years of legislative gridlock and political dysfunction. But that may not be the worst of it. The real concern among America watchers worldwide is that Donald Trump will position himself for another successful presidential bid.

Since his 2020 loss to Biden, Trump has continued to consolidate his control over the GOP. Of the 189 Republican candidates Trump endorsed in Senate, House, and gubernatorial primaries up through August 23, 2022, a full 180 will advance to the general election on November 8 (according to the polling website FiveThirtyEight). While most of the 189 were incumbents,10 were non-incumbent “assassin candidates” charged with unseating sitting Republicans who had incurred Trump’s disfavor, and 6 of those “assassins” succeeded in their mission. Prominent among the fallen incumbents was Representative Liz Cheney, the daughter of former Vice-President Dick Cheney. A stalwart conservative Republican in the traditional mold, Liz Cheney was elected to the House of Representatives from Wyoming in 2020 with more than 70% of the vote. But she sealed her doom with her vigorous public criticism of Trump’s election denial and his role in the January 6 insurrection. In the August 2022 Wyoming Republican primary, she was trounced by one of Trump’s chosen, coming away with less than 30% of the vote. From Trump’s standpoint, such victories are stepping stones to the presidency in 2024. Historically, they testify not only to Trump’s sway over the GOP but also to the retreat of traditional mainstream Republicanism. They also speak to a broader partisan realignment with the potential to transform US politics over the long term (see below).

What makes this election season especially bizarre is the fact that Trump is currently the subject of four separate investigations that could lead to criminal charges. In early August, the Federal Bureau of Investigation searched Trump’s sprawling Mar-a-Lago residence in southern Florida in connection with allegations that he illegally removed classified materials from the White House. Meanwhile, the Justice Department is carrying out a probe paralleling the House hearings on the January 6, 2021, attack on the Capitol and Trump’s role in the event. The Atlanta-area district attorney is leading an inquiry into efforts by Trump and his allies to overturn his 2020 election loss in Georgia. And the Manhattan district attorney is pursuing a criminal investigation of the Trump Organization on allegations that include fraud and tax evasion. All of this is casting a long shadow and adding further uncertainty to the midterms and the presidential election in 2024.

Paradoxically, the FBI raid on Mar-a-Lago seems to have had the effect of rallying the GOP troops around the ex-president. In a Morning Consult/Politico poll, 58% of Republican voters said they would vote for Trump if the 2024 presidential primary were held today, up from 54% in July. A record-high 71% said that Trump should run for president in 2024.

With the midterms approaching, top Justice Department officials are said to be considering scaling back their investigations into Trump to avoid the appearance of election interference. One cannot rule out the possibility of an “October surprise”—something like the FBI’s bombshell announcement, days before the 2016 election, that it was reopening its investigation of Hillary Clinton’s use of a private email server when she was secretary of state. On the whole, however, it seems reasonable to assume that the ultimate aim of the probes is to prevent Trump from winning the presidency in 2024. Under the circumstances, we can expect the authorities to proceed thoroughly and carefully.

Rumblings of Realignment

Ever since Trump was elected president in 2016, there have been clear signs that America’s two-party system is in transition. Even if the names of the two parties stay the same, a major change in the composition of their support base signals a partisan realignment. The Democratic Party is becoming skewed toward America’s college-educated “moneyed elite” and is losing support among working-class voters. Matthew Thomas of the Democratic Socialists of America has produced data indicating a shift in the class composition of the Democratic presidential primary electorate between 2008 and 2020. Focusing on 16 states that held their primaries before the nomination was locked up, he found that counties where the median household income was under $60,000 per year (below the US median) went from contributing 35% of the presidential primary vote in 2008 to just 29% in 2020. Meanwhile, the contribution of counties where the median income was over $80,000 per year rose from 25% to 31%. The DSA has criticized this trend and called on the Democratic Party to strengthen its focus on workers and the redistribution of wealth.

Representative Jim Banks of Indiana, chairman of the House Republican Study Committee, echoes Thomas’s findings and is bullish about making the GOP the party of working-class voters. In a March 2021 memo to House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy, Banks cited growth in support for Trump among workers (loosely defined as those without a college degree) between the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections—an increase that was not limited to white voters, as is widely assumed. According to the memo, support among Hispanic workers rose from 24% to 36%, while that among working-class African Americans workers went from 9% to 12%. Among those who contributed to presidential campaigns in 2020, he wrote, Trump was the choice of 79% of mechanics and 60% of small business owners. Biden, by contrast, secured the support of 86% of marketing professionals and 73% of bankers. Based on such data, the policy group calls on the Republican Party to “permanently become the party of the working class.”

Further evidence of such realignment can be seen in the positions of certain promising young Republican politicians with their eyes on the post-Trump era. Senator Josh Hawley of Missouri has called for a $15 alternative minimum wage—a measure also promoted by Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont, a self-described democratic socialist. Senator Marco Rubio of Florida has endorsed a unionization drive by workers at the online retailing giant Amazon. Such developments are suggestive of an incipient reversal of roles between the GOP, long known for its ties to big business, and the Democrats, traditionally supported by organized labor. Meanwhile, centrists have joined forces to launch a third political party. In the run-up to the 2022 midterms, we may be witnessing the beginnings of a historic upheaval in US party politics.

(Originally published in Japanese on September 12, 2022. Banner photo: US President Joe Biden touts his plan to reduce gun violence in an address at Wilkes University in Wilkes-Barre, Pennsylvania, on August 30, 2022. ©AFP/Jiji.)

Adblock test (Why?)



Source link

News

Austrian far-right party hopes for its first national election win in a close race

Published

 on

 

VIENNA (AP) — Austria’s far-right Freedom Party could win a national election for the first time on Sunday, tapping into voters’ anxieties about immigration, inflation, Ukraine and other concerns following recent gains for the hard right elsewhere in Europe.

Herbert Kickl, a former interior minister and longtime campaign strategist who has led the Freedom Party since 2021, wants to become Austria’s new chancellor. He has used the term “Volkskanzler,” or chancellor of the people, which was used by the Nazis to describe Adolf Hitler in the 1930s. Kickl has rejected the comparison.

But to become Austria’s new leader, he would need a coalition partner to command a majority in the lower house of parliament.

And a win isn’t certain, with recent polls pointing to a close race. They have put support for the Freedom Party at 27%, with the conservative Austrian People’s Party of Chancellor Karl Nehammer on 25% and the center-left Social Democrats on 21%.

More than 6.3 million people age 16 and over are eligible to vote for the new parliament in Austria, a European Union member that has a policy of military neutrality.

Kickl has achieved a turnaround since Austria’s last parliamentary election in 2019. In June, the Freedom Party narrowly won a nationwide vote for the first time in the European Parliament election, which also brought gains for other European far-right parties.

In 2019, its support slumped to 16.2% after a scandal brought down a government in which it was the junior coalition partner. Then-vice chancellor and Freedom Party leader Heinz-Christian Strache resigned following the publication of a secretly recorded video in which he appeared to offer favors to a purported Russian investor.

The far right has tapped into voter frustration over high inflation, the war in Ukraine and the Covid pandemic. It also been able to build on worries about migration.

In its election program, the Freedom Party calls for “remigration of uninvited foreigners,” and for achieving a more “homogeneous” nation by tightly controlling borders and suspending the right to asylum via an “emergency law.”

Gernot Bauer, a journalist with Austrian magazine Profil who recently co-published an investigative biography of the far-right leader, said that under Kickl’s leadership, the Freedom Party has moved “even further to the right,” as Kickl refuses to explicitly distance the party from the Identitarian Movement, a pan-European nationalist and far-right group.

Bauer describes Kickl’s rhetoric as “aggressive” and says some of his language is deliberately provocative.

The Freedom Party also calls for an end to sanctions against Russia, is highly critical of western military aid to Ukraine and wants to bow out of the European Sky Shield Initiative, a missile defense project launched by Germany.

The leader of the Social Democrats, a party that led many of Austria’s post-World War II governments, has positioned himself as the polar opposite to Kickl. Andreas Babler has ruled out governing with the far right and labeled Kickl “a threat to democracy.”

While the Freedom Party has recovered, the popularity of Nehammer’s People’s Party, which currently leads a coalition government with the environmentalist Greens as junior partners, has declined since 2019.

During the election campaign, Nehammer portrayed his party, which has taken a tough line on immigration in recent years, as “the strong center” that will guarantee stability amid multiple crises.

But it is precisely these crises, ranging from the COVID-19 pandemic to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and resulting rising energy prices, that have cost the conservatives support, said Peter Filzmaier, one of Austria’s leading political scientists.

Under their leadership, Austria has experienced high inflation averaging 4.2% over the past 12 months, surpassing the EU average.

The government also angered many Austrians in 2022 by becoming the first European country to introduce a coronavirus vaccine mandate, which was scrapped a few months later without ever being put into effect. And Nehammer is the third chancellor since the last election, taking office in 2021 after predecessor Sebastian Kurz — the winner in 2019 — quit politics amid a corruption investigation.

But the recent flooding caused by Storm Boris that hit Austria and other countries in Central Europe brought back the topic of the environment into the election debate and helped Nehammer slightly narrow the gap with the Freedom Party by presenting himself as a “crisis manager,” Filzmaier said.

Nehammer said in a video Thursday that “this is about whether we continue together on this proven path of stability or leave the country to the radicals, who make a lot of promises and don’t keep them.”

The People’s Party is the far right’s only way into government.

Nehammer has repeatedly excluded joining a government led by Kickl, describing him as a “security risk” for the country, but hasn’t ruled out a coalition with the Freedom Party in and of itself, which would imply Kickl renouncing a position in government.

The likelihood of Kickl agreeing to such a deal if he wins the election is very low, Filzmaier said.

But should the People’s Party finish first, then a coalition between the People’s Party and the Freedom Party could happen, Filzmaier said. The most probable alternative would be a three-way alliance between the People’s Party, the Social Democrats and most likely the liberal Neos.

___

Associated Press videojournalist Philipp Jenne contributed to this report.

Source link

Continue Reading

Politics

In Alabama, Trump goes from the dark rhetoric of his campaign to adulation of college football fans

Published

 on

 

TUSCALOOSA, Ala. (AP) — As Donald Trump railed against immigrants Saturday afternoon in the Rust Belt, his supporters in the Deep South had turned his earlier broadsides into a rallying cry over a college football game as they prepared for the former president’s visit later in the evening.

“You gotta get these people back where they came from,” Trump said in Wisconsin, as the Republican presidential nominee again focused on Springfield, Ohio, which has been roiled by false claims he amplified that Haitian immigrants are stealing and “eating the dogs … eating the cats” from neighbors’ homes.

“You have no choice,” Trump continued. “You’re going to lose your culture. You’re going to lose your country.”

Many University of Alabama fans, anticipating Trump’s visit to their campus for a showdown between the No. 4 Crimson Tide and No. 2 Georgia Bulldogs, sported stickers and buttons that read: “They’re eating the Dawgs!” They broke out in random chants of “Trump! Trump! Trump!” throughout the day, a preview of the rousing welcome he received early in the second quarter as he sat in a 40-yard-line suite hosted by a wealthy member of his Mar-a-Lago club in Florida.

Trump’s brand of populist nationalism leans heavily on his dark rendering of America as a failing nation abused by elites and overrun by Black and brown immigrants. But his supporters, especially white cultural conservatives, hear in that rhetoric an optimistic patriotism encapsulated by the slogan on his movement’s ubiquitous red hats: “Make America Great Again.”

That was the assessment by Shane Walsh, a 52-year-old businessman from Austin, Texas. Walsh and his family decorated their tent on the university quadrangle with a Trump 2024 flag and professionally made sign depicting the newly popular message forecasting the Alabama football team “eating the Dawgs.”

For Walsh, the sign was not about immigration or the particulars of Trump’s showmanship, exaggerations and falsehoods.

“I don’t necessarily like him as a person,” Walsh said. “But I think Washington is broken, and it’s both parties’ faults — and Trump is the kind of guy who will stand up. He’s a lot of things, but weak isn’t one of them. He’s an optimistic guy — he just makes you believe that if he’s in charge, we’re going to be all right.”

The idea for the sign, he said, grew out of a meme he showed his wife. “I thought it was funny,” he said.

Katie Yates, a 47-year-old from Hoover, Alabama, had the same experience with her life-sized cutout of the former president. She was stopped repeatedly on her way to her family’s usual tent. Trump’s likeness was set to join Elvis, “who is always an Alabama fan at our tailgate,” Yates said.

“I’m such a Trump fan,” she said, adding that she could not understand how every American was not.

Yates offered nothing disparaging about Trump’s opponent, Democratic nominee and Vice President Kamala Harris, instead simply lamenting that she could not stay for the game and see Trump be recognized by the stadium public address system and shown pumping his fist on large video screens in the four corners of Bryant-Denny Stadium.

That moment came with 12:24 left in the second quarter, shortly after Alabama quarterback Jalen Milroe ran up the right sideline, on Trump’s side of the field, to give the Crimson Tide an eye-popping 28-0 lead over the Vegas-favored Bulldogs.

Trump did not react to Milroe’s scamper, perhaps recognizing that Georgia, not reliably Republican Alabama, is a key battleground in his contest against Harris. But when “the 45th president of the United States, Donald J. Trump” was introduced to the capacity crowd of more than 100,000 fans — all but a few thousand wearing crimson — Trump smiled broadly and pumped his fist, like he had done on stage in July after the bullet of a would-be assassin grazed his ear and bloodied his face.

The crowd roared its approval, raising cell phone cameras and their crimson-and-white pompoms toward Trump’s suite, where he stood behind the ballistic glass that has become a feature after two assassination attempts. A smattering of boos and a few extended middle fingers broke Trumpian decorum, but they yielded to more chants of: “USA! USA! USA!”

Indeed, not everyone on campus was thrilled.

“There is, I think, a silent majority among the students that are not with Trump,” argued Braden Vick, president of Alabama’s College Democrats chapter. Vick pointed to recent elections when Democratic candidates, including President Joe Biden in 2020, vastly outperformed their statewide totals in precincts around the campus.

“We have this great atmosphere for a top-five game between these two teams, with playoff and championship implications,” Vick said, “and it’s just a shame that Donald Trump has to try to ruin it with his selfishness.”

Trump came as the guest of Alabama businessman Ric Mayers Jr., a member of Mar-a-Lago. Mayers said in an interview before the game that he invited Trump so that he could enjoy a warm welcome. And, as Mayers noted, Trump is a longtime sports fan. He tried to buy an NFL team in the 1980s and helped launch a competing league instead. And he attended several college games as president, including an Alabama-Georgia national championship game.

Mayers also invited Alabama Sens. Katie Britt and Tommy Tuberville. Britt, a former student government president at Alabama, delivered the GOP response to Biden’s last State of the Union address, drawing rebukes after using a disproven story of human trafficking to echo Trump’s warnings about migrants. Tuberville, a former head football coach at Auburn University, Alabama’s archrival, is a staunch Trump supporter.

Joining the politicians in the suite were musicians Kid Rock and Hank Williams Jr. Herschel Walker, a Georgia football icon and failed Senate nominee in 2022, traveled in Trump’s motorcade to the game.

Fencing surrounded parts of the stadium, with scores of metal detectors and tents forming a security perimeter beyond the usual footprint. Sisters of the Alpha Omicron Pi sorority showed their security wristbands before being allowed to their sorority house directly adjacent to the stadium. Bomb-sniffing dogs stopped catering trucks carrying food. Hundreds of TSA agents spread out to do a potentially unpopular job: imposing airport-level screening for each ticket-holder.

But what seemed to matter most was a friendly home crowd’s opportunity to cheer for Trump the same way they cheered the Crimson Tide, unburdened by anything he said in Wisconsin or anywhere else as he makes an increasingly dark closing argument.

“College football fans can get emotional and kooky about their team,” Shane Walsh said. “And so can Trump supporters.”

They didn’t even mind that Trump’s tie was not crimson. It was Georgia red.

Source link

Continue Reading

Politics

B.C.’s NDP, Conservatives nominate full slates of candidates for Oct. 19 election

Published

 on

 

VICTORIA – Elections BC says the New Democrats and Conservatives have nominated full slates of candidates for the upcoming Oct. 19 provincial election.

Elections BC says in a statement the two main parties will field candidates for each of the province’s 93 ridings, while the Green Party nominated 69 candidates.

Nominations closed Saturday afternoon with 323 total candidates, of which 269 represent seven different political parties and 54 who are contesting the election as Independents or unaffiliated candidates.

Elections BC says the official list includes five Freedom Party of B.C. hopefuls, four Libertarians, three representing the Communist Party of B.C. and two candidates from the Christian Heritage Party of B.C.

There are no BC United candidates.

BC United officials said earlier they might run some candidates in the election to preserve the party entity for the future after Leader Kevin Falcon announced the suspension of BC United’s election campaign in late August to prevent a centre-right vote split.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 28, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

Source link

Continue Reading

Trending

Exit mobile version