Andrew Scheer and Prime Minister Justin Trudeau tangled in Monday’s question period over the Liberals’ economic management.
“We look at our partners around the world and growth is higher in over half the G7 countries than it is here at home in Canada,” the Conservative leader said in the House of Commons.
Scheer said the Liberals’ deficit spending has run the domestic economy aground compared to other six countries in the G7 group of advanced economies. Trudeau said all that spending is helping the economy grow.
“Mr. Speaker, the facts are exactly the opposite,” Scheer said.
“Mr. Speaker, the Conservatives consistently try to twist the truth,” Trudeau retorted.
Time for the Baloney Meter to count dollars and make sense.
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This claim earns a rating of “some baloney.” Here’s why.
The facts
The most common measure of economic growth is percentage increases in gross domestic product, which is a measure of the overall value of nation’s economy.
Scheer didn’t put a timeline on his charge of economic woe but his office did in response to a question from The Canadian Press. The Conservatives pointed to quarterly GDP growth figures for the third quarter of 2019 that put Canada behind the United States, the U.K. and Japan. The 0.3 per cent economic expansion recorded in that quarter was tied with France, and ahead of the 0.1 per cent for Italy and Germany.
Some countries have reported their economic growth rates for the last three months of 2019 but Canada hasn’t yet. That’s expected at the end of February.
1:14 Canada expected to have among ‘highest levels’ of economic growth of all G7 countries: Finance Minister
Canada expected to have among ‘highest levels’ of economic growth of all G7 countries: Finance Minister
But last month, the Bank of Canada said it expected to register a slowdown at the end of last year. It estimated annual growth to be 1.6 per cent in 2019 and 2020, and then two per cent in 2021.
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The International Monetary Fund tracks annual percentage increases in GDP. Based on those figures, Canada’s growth in 2016 — the first full year of the Trudeau Liberals’ government — was 1.1 per cent, according to the IMF, which was the same figure recorded in Italy and France and half a percentage point above Japan, which finished last in the G7 that year.
But since, Canada has either led G7 countries — once, in 2017 — or been second in annual growth behind the United States.
The experts
Quarterly numbers, generally, are more volatile than annual figures and can be subject to temporary changes in demand, energy prices, exchange rates or situations in other countries, among others, says Minjoon Lee, an assistant professor in Carleton University’s economics department.
The third-quarter numbers Scheer used as the foundation for his comment do put Canada below three other nations in the G7. But one quarter earlier, Canada’s growth was tops in the G7.
“The measure is very volatile, as it only captures what happened in the last quarter. This can be very sensitive to any external (and temporary) shocks that happened to the Canadian economy,” Lee says in an email.
Comparing quarterly numbers among countries can introduce bias because key national industries can operate on different cycles, says Troy Joseph, an instructor in Carleton’s economics department. For instance, auto sales decline in the fall and winter in Canada.
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“It isn’t uncommon to look at GDP quarterly measure, but to use that as an annual growth rate is a little misleading because we can see there is a big difference,” Joseph says.
The verdict
Scheer’s use of the OECD numbers are accurate on the surface. But a digging deeper into the figures reveals that his comment was a tad simple for a more complex scenario. For those reasons, his statement has “some baloney” because important details are missing.
The ratings
The Baloney Meter is a project of The Canadian Press that examines the level of accuracy in statements made by politicians. Each claim is researched and assigned a rating based on the following scale:
No baloney — the statement is completely accurate
A little baloney — the statement is mostly accurate but more information is required
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Some baloney — the statement is partly accurate but important details are missing
A lot of baloney — the statement is mostly inaccurate but contains elements of truth
Full of baloney — the statement is completely inaccurate
TORONTO – Strength in the base metal and technology sectors helped Canada’s main stock index gain almost 100 points on Friday, while U.S. stock markets also climbed higher.
The S&P/TSX composite index closed up 93.51 points at 23,568.65.
In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 297.01 points at 41,393.78. The S&P 500 index was up 30.26 points at 5,626.02, while the Nasdaq composite was up 114.30 points at 17,683.98.
The Canadian dollar traded for 73.61 cents US compared with 73.58 cents US on Thursday.
The October crude oil contract was down 32 cents at US$68.65 per barrel and the October natural gas contract was down five cents at US$2.31 per mmBTU.
The December gold contract was up US$30.10 at US$2,610.70 an ounce and the December copper contract was up four cents US$4.24 a pound.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 13, 2024.
OTTAWA – Statistics Canada says wholesale sales, excluding petroleum, petroleum products, and other hydrocarbons and excluding oilseed and grain, rose 0.4 per cent to $82.7 billion in July.
The increase came as sales in the miscellaneous subsector gained three per cent to reach $10.5 billion in July, helped by strength in the agriculture supplies industry group, which rose 9.2 per cent.
The food, beverage and tobacco subsector added 1.7 per cent to total $15 billion in July.
The personal and household goods subsector fell 2.5 per cent to $12.1 billion.
In volume terms, overall wholesale sales rose 0.5 per cent in July.
Statistics Canada started including oilseed and grain as well as the petroleum and petroleum products subsector as part of wholesale trade last year, but is excluding the data from monthly analysis until there is enough historical data.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 13, 2024.
TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index was up more than 150 points in late-morning trading, helped by strength in the base metal and energy sectors, while U.S. stock markets were mixed.
The S&P/TSX composite index was up 172.18 points at 23,383.35.
In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was down 34.99 points at 40,826.72. The S&P 500 index was up 10.56 points at 5,564.69, while the Nasdaq composite was up 74.84 points at 17,470.37.
The Canadian dollar traded for 73.55 cents US compared with 73.59 cents US on Wednesday.
The October crude oil contract was up $2.00 at US$69.31 per barrel and the October natural gas contract was up five cents at US$2.32 per mmBTU.
The December gold contract was up US$40.00 at US$2,582.40 an ounce and the December copper contract was up six cents at US$4.20 a pound.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 12, 2024.
