Failed insurrection in Russia shows how fragile the global social fabric is, which will support long-term gold prices | Canada News Media
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Failed insurrection in Russia shows how fragile the global social fabric is, which will support long-term gold prices

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(Kitco News) – The gold market is starting the week on a slightly positive note, and while it may not be catching a major safe-haven bid after a 24-hour insurrection in Russia, analysts said that gold should remain a vital portfolio diversifier in times of heightened uncertainty.

The gold market remains under the critical psychological level at $1,950 an ounce after mercenaries with the Wagner Group, led by Yevgeny Prigozhin, launched an armed rebellion and marched to within 200 kilometers of Moscow during the weekend.

August gold futures last traded at $1,936 an ounce, up 0.34% on the day.

The rebellion ended nearly as quickly as it started as Moscow made a deal with Prigozhin, exiling him to Belarus and offering amnesty to Wagner’s professional soldiers if they stood down.

Although Vladimir Putin remains the leader of Russia, according to many political analysts, his iron grip on power has weakened significantly in the last 24 hours.

Jeffrey Christian, managing director of CPM Group, said with the attempted coup failing, gold prices in the next few days could see some short-term selling pressure as cooling geopolitical fears reduce the precious metal’s safe-haven allure.

However, he added that long-term, the instability seen during the weekend should provide long-term support for the precious metal.

“Gold prices might come off further as investors continue the long liquidation and lack of stronger physical demand for gold. Interest rates may soften slightly, as might oil prices. Equities in the Western markets may rise some. Such moves would be short-lived in our view, a day or so, before the realities of what an ultimate change of Russian government might mean for the world,” he said in an exclusive comment to Kitco News. “So longer term, there could be bouts of market concerns about the postures and behaviors of a future Russian government, but there also may be reduced market anxieties due to the realization that Russia’s stature on the world political and economic stages will be diminished regardless of which outcome ultimately unfolds.”

Christian added that he is not surprised that the insurrection has happened.

“CPM has been saying and writing for perhaps 16 months that there would be internal dissent within Russia due to Putin’s mismanagement of a variety of things compounded by his decision to attack Ukraine. We have been suggesting that, in our view, Putin would be replaced, most likely by a much more hard-line set of leaders, but we did not expect that until the end of the war,” he said. “Our expectation for Russian politics is that there will be a regime change at some point. The events of Friday and Saturday are not over. They represent an acceleration toward an end to the war against Ukraine and toward a new government in Russia. We do assume that a post-Putin government will be a harder line. There are no alternatives available in Russian politics today that would represent a softening of the imperial view of what Russia’s rightful place should be in the world.”

Michele Schneider, director of trading education and research at MarketGauge, said that the attempted coup in Russia shows just how fragile the world is. She added that she expects geopolitical volatility to rise as the decades-long globalization trend weakens.



“It doesn’t matter where you look; you can see the fragility in the social fabric everywhere,” she said. “There are two things that I’m pretty certain about. One: Food prices aren’t coming down anytime soon. And number two: the ECB and potentially the Federal Reserve continue to tighten the screws on the global economy by raising interest rates. You’ve now got two things that are choking consumers: rising prices, inflation and higher interest rates. The instability over the weekend was just a, was just a ripple towards the climax, which we have not seen yet.”

In this current environment, Schneider said that even if gold prices move lower, it is very short-sighted for traders to be bearish on gold and other raw commodities.

“I see any short-term weakness in gold and silver as buying opportunities,” she said. “If gold can get back above $1,950, that is a good sign this correction could be over. If gold gets back above $1,980, then $2,000 is just around the corner.

Schneider added that investors should pay attention to the physical gold market because that will reflect the geopolitical premium in the marketplace, as investors will want to have physical gold to protect their wealth.

 

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Telus prioritizing ‘most important customers,’ avoiding ‘unprofitable’ offers: CFO

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Telus Corp. says it is avoiding offering “unprofitable” discounts as fierce competition in the Canadian telecommunications sector shows no sign of slowing down.

The company said Friday it had fewer net new customers during its third quarter compared with the same time last year, as it copes with increasingly “aggressive marketing and promotional pricing” that is prompting more customers to switch providers.

Telus said it added 347,000 net new customers, down around 14.5 per cent compared with last year. The figure includes 130,000 mobile phone subscribers and 34,000 internet customers, down 30,000 and 3,000, respectively, year-over-year.

The company reported its mobile phone churn rate — a metric measuring subscribers who cancelled their services — was 1.09 per cent in the third quarter, up from 1.03 per cent in the third quarter of 2023. That included a postpaid mobile phone churn rate of 0.90 per cent in its latest quarter.

Telus said its focus is on customer retention through its “industry-leading service and network quality, along with successful promotions and bundled offerings.”

“The customers we have are the most important customers we can get,” said chief financial officer Doug French in an interview.

“We’ve, again, just continued to focus on what matters most to our customers, from a product and customer service perspective, while not loading unprofitable customers.”

Meanwhile, Telus reported its net income attributable to common shares more than doubled during its third quarter.

The telecommunications company said it earned $280 million, up 105.9 per cent from the same three-month period in 2023. Earnings per diluted share for the quarter ended Sept. 30 was 19 cents compared with nine cents a year earlier.

It reported adjusted net income was $413 million, up 10.7 per cent year-over-year from $373 million in the same quarter last year. Operating revenue and other income for the quarter was $5.1 billion, up 1.8 per cent from the previous year.

Mobile phone average revenue per user was $58.85 in the third quarter, a decrease of $2.09 or 3.4 per cent from a year ago. Telus said the drop was attributable to customers signing up for base rate plans with lower prices, along with a decline in overage and roaming revenues.

It said customers are increasingly adopting unlimited data and Canada-U.S. plans which provide higher and more stable ARPU on a monthly basis.

“In a tough operating environment and relative to peers, we view Q3 results that were in line to slightly better than forecast as the best of the bunch,” said RBC analyst Drew McReynolds in a note.

Scotiabank analyst Maher Yaghi added that “the telecom industry in Canada remains very challenging for all players, however, Telus has been able to face these pressures” and still deliver growth.

The Big 3 telecom providers — which also include Rogers Communications Inc. and BCE Inc. — have frequently stressed that the market has grown more competitive in recent years, especially after the closing of Quebecor Inc.’s purchase of Freedom Mobile in April 2023.

Hailed as a fourth national carrier, Quebecor has invested in enhancements to Freedom’s network while offering more affordable plans as part of a set of commitments it was mandated by Ottawa to agree to.

The cost of telephone services in September was down eight per cent compared with a year earlier, according to Statistics Canada’s most recent inflation report last month.

“I think competition has been and continues to be, I’d say, quite intense in Canada, and we’ve obviously had to just manage our business the way we see fit,” said French.

Asked how long that environment could last, he said that’s out of Telus’ hands.

“What I can control, though, is how we go to market and how we lead with our products,” he said.

“I think the conditions within the market will have to adjust accordingly over time. We’ve continued to focus on digitization, continued to bring our cost structure down to compete, irrespective of the price and the current market conditions.”

Still, Canada’s telecom regulator continues to warn providers about customers facing more charges on their cellphone and internet bills.

On Tuesday, CRTC vice-president of consumer, analytics and strategy Scott Hutton called on providers to ensure they clearly inform their customers of charges such as early cancellation fees.

That followed statements from the regulator in recent weeks cautioning against rising international roaming fees and “surprise” price increases being found on their bills.

Hutton said the CRTC plans to launch public consultations in the coming weeks that will focus “on ensuring that information is clear and consistent, making it easier to compare offers and switch services or providers.”

“The CRTC is concerned with recent trends, which suggest that Canadians may not be benefiting from the full protections of our codes,” he said.

“We will continue to monitor developments and will take further action if our codes are not being followed.”

French said any initiative to boost transparency is a step in the right direction.

“I can’t say we are perfect across the board, but what I can say is we are absolutely taking it under consideration and trying to be the best at communicating with our customers,” he said.

“I think everyone looking in the mirror would say there’s room for improvement.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:T)

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TC Energy cuts cost estimate for Southeast Gateway pipeline project in Mexico

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CALGARY – TC Energy Corp. has lowered the estimated cost of its Southeast Gateway pipeline project in Mexico.

It says it now expects the project to cost between US$3.9 billion and US$4.1 billion compared with its original estimate of US$4.5 billion.

The change came as the company reported a third-quarter profit attributable to common shareholders of C$1.46 billion or $1.40 per share compared with a loss of C$197 million or 19 cents per share in the same quarter last year.

Revenue for the quarter ended Sept. 30 totalled C$4.08 billion, up from C$3.94 billion in the third quarter of 2023.

TC Energy says its comparable earnings for its latest quarter amounted to C$1.03 per share compared with C$1.00 per share a year earlier.

The average analyst estimate had been for a profit of 95 cents per share, according to LSEG Data & Analytics.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TRP)

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BCE reports Q3 loss on asset impairment charge, cuts revenue guidance

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BCE Inc. reported a loss in its latest quarter as it recorded $2.11 billion in asset impairment charges, mainly related to Bell Media’s TV and radio properties.

The company says its net loss attributable to common shareholders amounted to $1.24 billion or $1.36 per share for the quarter ended Sept. 30 compared with a profit of $640 million or 70 cents per share a year earlier.

On an adjusted basis, BCE says it earned 75 cents per share in its latest quarter compared with an adjusted profit of 81 cents per share in the same quarter last year.

“Bell’s results for the third quarter demonstrate that we are disciplined in our pursuit of profitable growth in an intensely competitive environment,” BCE chief executive Mirko Bibic said in a statement.

“Our focus this quarter, and throughout 2024, has been to attract higher-margin subscribers and reduce costs to help offset short-term revenue impacts from sustained competitive pricing pressures, slow economic growth and a media advertising market that is in transition.”

Operating revenue for the quarter totalled $5.97 billion, down from $6.08 billion in its third quarter of 2023.

BCE also said it now expects its revenue for 2024 to fall about 1.5 per cent compared with earlier guidance for an increase of zero to four per cent.

The company says the change comes as it faces lower-than-anticipated wireless product revenue and sustained pressure on wireless prices.

BCE added 33,111 net postpaid mobile phone subscribers, down 76.8 per cent from the same period last year, which was the company’s second-best performance on the metric since 2010.

It says the drop was driven by higher customer churn — a measure of subscribers who cancelled their service — amid greater competitive activity and promotional offer intensity. BCE’s monthly churn rate for the category was 1.28 per cent, up from 1.1 per cent during its previous third quarter.

The company also saw 11.6 per cent fewer gross subscriber activations “due to more targeted promotional offers and mobile device discounting compared to last year.”

Bell’s wireless mobile phone average revenue per user was $58.26, down 3.4 per cent from $60.28 in the third quarter of the prior year.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:BCE)

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