Falling rates could add fuel to spring homebuying season – which may have already begun - Financial Post | Canada News Media
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Falling rates could add fuel to spring homebuying season – which may have already begun – Financial Post

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The typically busy spring homebuying season in Canada could be turbocharged by falling mortgage rates, but also by tweaks to loan stress tests and by monetary policy that is being eased by central banks amid the spread of the new coronavirus.

COVID-19 influenced decisions by the Bank of Canada and the U.S. Federal Reserve to cut their key interest rates this week, and some analysts, brokers and economists are saying lenders either have adjusted or will be adjusting their mortgage rates accordingly as well.

Variable mortgage rates are influenced by the prime rate that banks charge, which have historically been tweaked in the wake of central-bank moves. Royal Bank of Canada and the Bank of Nova Scotia announced Wednesday they were cutting prime rates by 50 basis points, to 3.45 per cent from 3.95 per cent.

Fixed rates are historically more related to bond yields, which have also been falling. The yield on the Government of Canada’s benchmark five-year bond slipped this week below one per cent.

The “slump” in the five-year yield suggests lenders could drop their five-year fixed mortgage rates by around 0.5 percentage points in the coming weeks, according to Stephen Brown, senior Canada economist at Capital Economics.

“That fall, which would effectively raise the price that borrowers can afford by a little over five per cent, means house price inflation is likely to keep rising even if the further spread of the virus weighs on sales and new listings,” Brown wrote in a note published Wednesday.

Sales have been taking off again in the major housing markets of Toronto and Vancouver. The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver reported this week that home sales rose to 2,150 in February, a nearly 45 per cent increase compared to a year earlier, but still below the 10-year average for February sales. In the Toronto region sales also rose, increasing almost 46 per cent last month over the 10-year low seen in February 2019.

Stock analysts are accounting for interest-rate cuts in earnings estimates for commercial banks that have been affected by pricing changes forced on the lenders by central banks. A large part of bank revenue still flows from net interest income, the difference between what lenders are charging for loans and paying out to savers.

Following the U.S. Federal Reserve’s emergency rate cut on Tuesday, Citi analyst Maria Semikhatova wrote that their forecasts for Canadian banks’ 2020 assumed net interest margins (a measure of the spread) will be lower by about six basis points, or 0.06 percentage points. Semikhatova wrote this would be “driven by competitive mortgage pricing in Canada and rate cuts implemented in the U.S. over the course of 2019.”

“We note that market is currently pricing in as many as three rate cuts in Canada and four in the U.S. by the end of 2020,” she added.

Spring market typically forces banks to increase their discounting and they have lots of spread to work with

Robert McLister, RateSpy.com

Falling mortgage rates are just one possible source of rocket fuel for the busy spring buying season. Ottawa is preparing to tweak the stress test for both insured and uninsured home loans and the usual pricing games have already begun among lenders. Toronto-Dominion Bank last month lowered its posted five-year fixed rate to 4.99 per cent from 5.34 per cent, a move other big banks have yet to match.

The Bank of Canada’s communications around Wednesday’s rate cut also allowed for the possibility of further action, which could again lower funding costs for lenders and borrowing costs for buyers or owners.

The lowest rate for a conventional, five-year fixed-rate mortgage that is nationally available was 2.79 per cent at the end of 2019, but was 2.49 per cent and falling as of Wednesday, according to Robert McLister, the founder of mortgage-comparison website RateSpy.com.

“Most lenders have been slow to pass through these lower funding costs by way of lower fixed rates, but give it time,” McLister wrote in an email. “Spring market typically forces banks to increase their discounting and they have lots of spread to work with.”

Choppier economic conditions could still delay rate discounts. Lenders are “nervous” about lowering rates too quickly, with most having nudged fixed rates 0.1 percentage points lower on Tuesday or Wednesday, according to Dan Eisner, chief executive of Calgary-headquartered brokerage True North Mortgage Inc.

“The bond market is in turmoil right now so lenders are scared to lower their rates without knowing where bonds yields are going to land,” he said in an email.

Eisner’s bet is that within two weeks rates will be 0.2 percentage points lower than they are right now. Lower costs for new buyers could help push up home prices, but already this year the Toronto mortgage market “has been crazy,” he said.

“Alberta is as slow as ever and Vancouver is busier than last year,” he added.

Financial Post

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Roots sees room for expansion in activewear, reports $5.2M Q2 loss and sales drop

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TORONTO – Roots Corp. may have built its brand on all things comfy and cosy, but its CEO says activewear is now “really becoming a core part” of the brand.

The category, which at Roots spans leggings, tracksuits, sports bras and bike shorts, has seen such sustained double-digit growth that Meghan Roach plans to make it a key part of the business’ future.

“It’s an area … you will see us continue to expand upon,” she told analysts on a Friday call.

The Toronto-based retailer’s push into activewear has taken shape over many years and included several turns as the official designer and supplier of Team Canada’s Olympic uniform.

But consumers have had plenty of choice when it comes to workout gear and other apparel suited to their sporting needs. On top of the slew of athletic brands like Nike and Adidas, shoppers have also gravitated toward Lululemon Athletica Inc., Alo and Vuori, ramping up competition in the activewear category.

Roach feels Roots’ toehold in the category stems from the fit, feel and following its merchandise has cultivated.

“Our product really resonates with (shoppers) because you can wear it through multiple different use cases and occasions,” she said.

“We’ve been seeing customers come back again and again for some of these core products in our activewear collection.”

Her remarks came the same day as Roots revealed it lost $5.2 million in its latest quarter compared with a loss of $5.3 million in the same quarter last year.

The company said the second-quarter loss amounted to 13 cents per diluted share for the quarter ended Aug. 3, the same as a year earlier.

In presenting the results, Roach reminded analysts that the first half of the year is usually “seasonally small,” representing just 30 per cent of the company’s annual sales.

Sales for the second quarter totalled $47.7 million, down from $49.4 million in the same quarter last year.

The move lower came as direct-to-consumer sales amounted to $36.4 million, down from $37.1 million a year earlier, as comparable sales edged down 0.2 per cent.

The numbers reflect the fact that Roots continued to grapple with inventory challenges in the company’s Cooper fleece line that first cropped up in its previous quarter.

Roots recently began to use artificial intelligence to assist with daily inventory replenishments and said more tools helping with allocation will go live in the next quarter.

Beyond that time period, the company intends to keep exploring AI and renovate more of its stores.

It will also re-evaluate its design ranks.

Roots announced Friday that chief product officer Karuna Scheinfeld has stepped down.

Rather than fill the role, the company plans to hire senior level design talent with international experience in the outdoor and activewear sectors who will take on tasks previously done by the chief product officer.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 13, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:ROOT)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Talks on today over HandyDART strike affecting vulnerable people in Metro Vancouver

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VANCOUVER – Mediated talks between the union representing HandyDART workers in Metro Vancouver and its employer, Transdev, are set to resume today as a strike that has stopped most services drags into a second week.

No timeline has been set for the length of the negotiations, but Joe McCann, president of the Amalgamated Transit Union Local 1724, says they are willing to stay there as long as it takes, even if talks drag on all night.

About 600 employees of the door-to-door transit service for people unable to navigate the conventional transit system have been on strike since last Tuesday, pausing service for all but essential medical trips.

Hundreds of drivers rallied outside TransLink’s head office earlier this week, calling for the transportation provider to intervene in the dispute with Transdev, which was contracted to oversee HandyDART service.

Transdev said earlier this week that it will provide a reply to the union’s latest proposal on Thursday.

A statement from the company said it “strongly believes” that their employees deserve fair wages, and that a fair contract “must balance the needs of their employees, clients and taxpayers.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 12, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Transat AT reports $39.9M Q3 loss compared with $57.3M profit a year earlier

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MONTREAL – Travel company Transat AT Inc. reported a loss in its latest quarter compared with a profit a year earlier as its revenue edged lower.

The parent company of Air Transat says it lost $39.9 million or $1.03 per diluted share in its quarter ended July 31.

The result compared with a profit of $57.3 million or $1.49 per diluted share a year earlier.

Revenue in what was the company’s third quarter totalled $736.2 million, down from $746.3 million in the same quarter last year.

On an adjusted basis, Transat says it lost $1.10 per share in its latest quarter compared with an adjusted profit of $1.10 per share a year earlier.

Transat chief executive Annick Guérard says demand for leisure travel remains healthy, as evidenced by higher traffic, but consumers are increasingly price conscious given the current economic uncertainty.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 12, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TRZ)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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