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Fed Looks to Bolster Forward Guidance; Mulls Yield Curve Control , Minutes Show – Investing.com

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By Yasin Ebrahim

Investing.com – Federal Reserve policymakers discussed the need to bolster forward guidance in the coming months when they met last month, and suggested that the jury was still out on the use of yield curve control, according to the Fed’s June meeting minutes released Wednesday.

“Various participants noted that the economy is likely to need support from highly accommodative monetary policy for some time and that it will be important in coming months for the Committee to provide greater clarity regarding the likely path of the federal funds rate and asset purchases,” according to the minutes. 

There was also support to tie forward guidance to economic metrics, with a number of policymakers suggesting future monetary policy be linked to inflation outcomes. 

“Participants generally indicated support for outcome-based forward guidance. A number of participants spoke favorably of forward guidance tied to inflation outcomes that could possibly entail a modest temporary overshooting of the committee’s longer-run inflation goal but where inflation fluctuations would be centered on 2 percent over time,” the minutes showed. 

Fed members discussed two tools for conducting monetary policy when the federal funds rate is at its effective lower bound, including forward guidance and large-scale asset purchase programs in supporting employment and inflation and an approach that caps or targets interest rates along the yield curve — a measure allowing central banks to target specific government bond yields through the purchase and sale of bonds, to help keep lending rates near zero.

Debate Over Yield Curve Control

Pointing to a review of the yield caps or targets (YCT) policies the Federal Reserve followed during and after World War II and that the Bank of Japan and the Reserve Bank of Australia are currently employing, nearly all Federal Open Market Committee members indicated that they had many questions regarding the costs and benefits of such an approach. 

“The three experiences suggested that credible yield curve target (YCT) policies can control government bond yields… and may not require large central bank purchases of government debt,” the minutes showed. “But the staff also highlighted the potential for YCT policies to require the central bank to purchase very sizable amounts of government debt under certain circumstances … and the possibility that, under YCT policies, monetary policy goals might come in conflict with public debt management goals, which could pose risks to the independence of the central bank.”

With the central bank is likely to persist with ensuring rates remain lower for longer, yield curve control is unlikely to make into the Fed’s toolbox in the immediate future. “Yield curve control is still under discussion, though FOMC members still have “many questions” on the costs and benefits. It’s probably not imminent,” Pantheon Macroeconomics said. 

Following their June 9-10 meeting, Fed officials left interest rates in the range of 0%-to-0.25% and signaled that near zero rates would continue through at least 2022.

In their post-meeting statement, they vowed to persist with bond purchases “at least at the current pace to sustain smooth market functioning, thereby fostering effective transmission of monetary policy to broader financial conditions.”

The Fed committed to buying $80 billion a month in Treasuries and $40 billion a month in agency mortgage backed securities.

The Fed’s balance sheet has declined by $12.4 billion to $7.08 trillion as of June. 24, compared with the week prior, driven by a decline in demand for the Fed’s dollar swap lines from overseas central banks.

The U.S. central bank’s balance sheet stood at about $4 trillion just before the pandemic struck in the U.S. in early March.

Threat of a Second Wave

Since the Fed’s last meeting, the U.S. has seen a greater resurgence in infections that has forced states to roll back plans to speed up the pace of reopening businesses. 

In testimony before the House Financial Services Committee on Tuesday, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, acknowledged the threat of a potential second wave of infections on the economy.

A second wave could “force government and force people to withdraw again from economic activity … and “undermine public confidence, which is what we need to get back to lots of economic activity,” Powell said.

“Output and employment remain far below their pre-pandemic levels. The path forward for the economy is extraordinarily uncertain and will depend in large part on our success in containing the virus,” he added.

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Roots sees room for expansion in activewear, reports $5.2M Q2 loss and sales drop

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TORONTO – Roots Corp. may have built its brand on all things comfy and cosy, but its CEO says activewear is now “really becoming a core part” of the brand.

The category, which at Roots spans leggings, tracksuits, sports bras and bike shorts, has seen such sustained double-digit growth that Meghan Roach plans to make it a key part of the business’ future.

“It’s an area … you will see us continue to expand upon,” she told analysts on a Friday call.

The Toronto-based retailer’s push into activewear has taken shape over many years and included several turns as the official designer and supplier of Team Canada’s Olympic uniform.

But consumers have had plenty of choice when it comes to workout gear and other apparel suited to their sporting needs. On top of the slew of athletic brands like Nike and Adidas, shoppers have also gravitated toward Lululemon Athletica Inc., Alo and Vuori, ramping up competition in the activewear category.

Roach feels Roots’ toehold in the category stems from the fit, feel and following its merchandise has cultivated.

“Our product really resonates with (shoppers) because you can wear it through multiple different use cases and occasions,” she said.

“We’ve been seeing customers come back again and again for some of these core products in our activewear collection.”

Her remarks came the same day as Roots revealed it lost $5.2 million in its latest quarter compared with a loss of $5.3 million in the same quarter last year.

The company said the second-quarter loss amounted to 13 cents per diluted share for the quarter ended Aug. 3, the same as a year earlier.

In presenting the results, Roach reminded analysts that the first half of the year is usually “seasonally small,” representing just 30 per cent of the company’s annual sales.

Sales for the second quarter totalled $47.7 million, down from $49.4 million in the same quarter last year.

The move lower came as direct-to-consumer sales amounted to $36.4 million, down from $37.1 million a year earlier, as comparable sales edged down 0.2 per cent.

The numbers reflect the fact that Roots continued to grapple with inventory challenges in the company’s Cooper fleece line that first cropped up in its previous quarter.

Roots recently began to use artificial intelligence to assist with daily inventory replenishments and said more tools helping with allocation will go live in the next quarter.

Beyond that time period, the company intends to keep exploring AI and renovate more of its stores.

It will also re-evaluate its design ranks.

Roots announced Friday that chief product officer Karuna Scheinfeld has stepped down.

Rather than fill the role, the company plans to hire senior level design talent with international experience in the outdoor and activewear sectors who will take on tasks previously done by the chief product officer.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 13, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:ROOT)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Talks on today over HandyDART strike affecting vulnerable people in Metro Vancouver

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VANCOUVER – Mediated talks between the union representing HandyDART workers in Metro Vancouver and its employer, Transdev, are set to resume today as a strike that has stopped most services drags into a second week.

No timeline has been set for the length of the negotiations, but Joe McCann, president of the Amalgamated Transit Union Local 1724, says they are willing to stay there as long as it takes, even if talks drag on all night.

About 600 employees of the door-to-door transit service for people unable to navigate the conventional transit system have been on strike since last Tuesday, pausing service for all but essential medical trips.

Hundreds of drivers rallied outside TransLink’s head office earlier this week, calling for the transportation provider to intervene in the dispute with Transdev, which was contracted to oversee HandyDART service.

Transdev said earlier this week that it will provide a reply to the union’s latest proposal on Thursday.

A statement from the company said it “strongly believes” that their employees deserve fair wages, and that a fair contract “must balance the needs of their employees, clients and taxpayers.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 12, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Transat AT reports $39.9M Q3 loss compared with $57.3M profit a year earlier

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MONTREAL – Travel company Transat AT Inc. reported a loss in its latest quarter compared with a profit a year earlier as its revenue edged lower.

The parent company of Air Transat says it lost $39.9 million or $1.03 per diluted share in its quarter ended July 31.

The result compared with a profit of $57.3 million or $1.49 per diluted share a year earlier.

Revenue in what was the company’s third quarter totalled $736.2 million, down from $746.3 million in the same quarter last year.

On an adjusted basis, Transat says it lost $1.10 per share in its latest quarter compared with an adjusted profit of $1.10 per share a year earlier.

Transat chief executive Annick Guérard says demand for leisure travel remains healthy, as evidenced by higher traffic, but consumers are increasingly price conscious given the current economic uncertainty.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 12, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TRZ)

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