Fed Stays Put, Sees Three Rate Cuts in 2024; Gold Prices Soar as Yields Plunge | Canada News Media
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Fed Stays Put, Sees Three Rate Cuts in 2024; Gold Prices Soar as Yields Plunge

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FOMC INTEREST RATE DECISION KEY POINTS

  • The Federal Reserve keeps borrowing costs unchanged in their present range of 5.25% to 5.50%, in line with expectations
  • The dot plot sees 75 basis points of easing in 2024, a little less than current market pricing but moving in that direction
  • Gold and the U.S. dollar take different routes after the FOMC announcement hits the wires

 

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Most Read: US Dollar Sinks on Fed Dovish Pivot, Setups on EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD

The Federal Reserve today concluded its final monetary policy gathering of 2023, voting unanimously to keep its benchmark interest rate unchanged within the current range of 5.25% to 5.50%, broadly in line with Wall Street expectations.

The decision to maintain the status quo for the third straight meeting is part of a strategy to proceed more cautiously in the later stages of the fight against inflation, as risks have become more balanced and two-sided after having already delivered 525 basis points of cumulative tightening since 2022.

Focusing on the FOMC statement, the institution downgraded its view on economic activity, acknowledging that recent indicators point to modest growth, but affirmed confidence in the labor market by noting that employment gains have been strong despite moderation since earlier in the year.

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Source: DailyFX Economic Calendar

In addressing consumer prices, the communique tweaked its previous characterization, saying that “inflation remains elevated” while adding that the trend has eased over the past year, a vote of confidence in the outlook.

Shifting focus to forward guidance, the Fed retained a modest tightening bias, though the language reflected less conviction in this scenario by including the word “any” in its message of “in determining the extent of any additional policy firming that may be appropriate”. This is a sign that the hiking campaign is indeed over.

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FED SUMMARY OF ECONOMIC PROJECTIONS

GDP, UNEMPLOYMENT RATE AND CORE PCE

The December Summary of Economic Projections revealed important revisions compared to the quarterly estimates submitted in September.

First off, 2023 gross domestic product was revised upwards to 2.6% from 2.1% previously. For next year, the forecast was marked down modestly to 1.4% from 1.5%, still indicating no recession on the horizon.

Turning to the labor market, the outlook for the unemployment rate for this and next year remained unchanged at 3.8% and 4.1%, respectively, reflecting faith in the economy’s ability to keep job losses contained.

Regarding core PCE, the Fed’s favorite inflation gauge is now seen ending the year at 3.2 %, well below the 3.7% projection issued three months earlier. In 2024, this indicator is predicted to fall to 2.4%, a bit lower than the 2.6% previous estimate.

FED DOT PLOT

The dot plot, which illustrates the expected trajectory of interest rates over several years as viewed by Federal Reserve officials, underwent several notable modifications.

In September, policymakers projected borrowing costs would end 2023 at 5.6% (5.50%-5.75%), but they are now finishing the year at 5.4% (5.25%-5.50%), with the central bank on pause over the past few meetings. Also at that point, the Fed anticipated a policy stance of 5.1% in 2024, implying 50 basis points of easing from the peak rate.

In the December’s projections revealed today, officials see the target range falling to 4.6% (4.50%-4.75%) in 2024. This implies 75 basis points of easing, but from a lower terminal rate. Markets were pricing in about 106 basis points of rate cuts over the next 12 months before today’s announcement, so the Fed’s outlook is slowly converging towards that scenario.

The following table provides a summary of the Federal Reserve’s updated macroeconomic projections.

Source: Federal Reserve

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Immediately after the FOMC announcement crossed the wires, gold prices shot higher and extended their session’s advance, as Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar came under strong downward pressure as the Fed projected three standard quarter-point interest rate cuts for the following year and adopted a more balanced view on inflation. With the U.S. central bank starting to embrace a more dovish stance, today’s market moves could consolidate in the near term, but for greater clarity on the outlook, traders should closely follow Chairman Powell’s press conference.

US DOLLAR, YIELDS AND GOLD PRICES CHART

Source: TradingView

 

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Roots sees room for expansion in activewear, reports $5.2M Q2 loss and sales drop

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TORONTO – Roots Corp. may have built its brand on all things comfy and cosy, but its CEO says activewear is now “really becoming a core part” of the brand.

The category, which at Roots spans leggings, tracksuits, sports bras and bike shorts, has seen such sustained double-digit growth that Meghan Roach plans to make it a key part of the business’ future.

“It’s an area … you will see us continue to expand upon,” she told analysts on a Friday call.

The Toronto-based retailer’s push into activewear has taken shape over many years and included several turns as the official designer and supplier of Team Canada’s Olympic uniform.

But consumers have had plenty of choice when it comes to workout gear and other apparel suited to their sporting needs. On top of the slew of athletic brands like Nike and Adidas, shoppers have also gravitated toward Lululemon Athletica Inc., Alo and Vuori, ramping up competition in the activewear category.

Roach feels Roots’ toehold in the category stems from the fit, feel and following its merchandise has cultivated.

“Our product really resonates with (shoppers) because you can wear it through multiple different use cases and occasions,” she said.

“We’ve been seeing customers come back again and again for some of these core products in our activewear collection.”

Her remarks came the same day as Roots revealed it lost $5.2 million in its latest quarter compared with a loss of $5.3 million in the same quarter last year.

The company said the second-quarter loss amounted to 13 cents per diluted share for the quarter ended Aug. 3, the same as a year earlier.

In presenting the results, Roach reminded analysts that the first half of the year is usually “seasonally small,” representing just 30 per cent of the company’s annual sales.

Sales for the second quarter totalled $47.7 million, down from $49.4 million in the same quarter last year.

The move lower came as direct-to-consumer sales amounted to $36.4 million, down from $37.1 million a year earlier, as comparable sales edged down 0.2 per cent.

The numbers reflect the fact that Roots continued to grapple with inventory challenges in the company’s Cooper fleece line that first cropped up in its previous quarter.

Roots recently began to use artificial intelligence to assist with daily inventory replenishments and said more tools helping with allocation will go live in the next quarter.

Beyond that time period, the company intends to keep exploring AI and renovate more of its stores.

It will also re-evaluate its design ranks.

Roots announced Friday that chief product officer Karuna Scheinfeld has stepped down.

Rather than fill the role, the company plans to hire senior level design talent with international experience in the outdoor and activewear sectors who will take on tasks previously done by the chief product officer.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 13, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:ROOT)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Talks on today over HandyDART strike affecting vulnerable people in Metro Vancouver

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VANCOUVER – Mediated talks between the union representing HandyDART workers in Metro Vancouver and its employer, Transdev, are set to resume today as a strike that has stopped most services drags into a second week.

No timeline has been set for the length of the negotiations, but Joe McCann, president of the Amalgamated Transit Union Local 1724, says they are willing to stay there as long as it takes, even if talks drag on all night.

About 600 employees of the door-to-door transit service for people unable to navigate the conventional transit system have been on strike since last Tuesday, pausing service for all but essential medical trips.

Hundreds of drivers rallied outside TransLink’s head office earlier this week, calling for the transportation provider to intervene in the dispute with Transdev, which was contracted to oversee HandyDART service.

Transdev said earlier this week that it will provide a reply to the union’s latest proposal on Thursday.

A statement from the company said it “strongly believes” that their employees deserve fair wages, and that a fair contract “must balance the needs of their employees, clients and taxpayers.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 12, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Transat AT reports $39.9M Q3 loss compared with $57.3M profit a year earlier

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MONTREAL – Travel company Transat AT Inc. reported a loss in its latest quarter compared with a profit a year earlier as its revenue edged lower.

The parent company of Air Transat says it lost $39.9 million or $1.03 per diluted share in its quarter ended July 31.

The result compared with a profit of $57.3 million or $1.49 per diluted share a year earlier.

Revenue in what was the company’s third quarter totalled $736.2 million, down from $746.3 million in the same quarter last year.

On an adjusted basis, Transat says it lost $1.10 per share in its latest quarter compared with an adjusted profit of $1.10 per share a year earlier.

Transat chief executive Annick Guérard says demand for leisure travel remains healthy, as evidenced by higher traffic, but consumers are increasingly price conscious given the current economic uncertainty.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 12, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TRZ)

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