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Federal government hammered from all sides during forum on B.C. economy – Vancouver Sun

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B.C.’s economy has changed significantly since the pandemic, with the sudden onset of inflation and the resulting hikes in interest rates

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The federal government took a hammering during a Conversations Live forum on Tuesday night titled The Economy = Your Money.

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The forum included Jock Finlayson, former chief economist for the B.C. Business Council; Krista Thompson, former CEO of Covenant House Vancouver; Walter Pela, regional managing partner at KPMG in Greater Vancouver; Katrine Conroy, B.C. Minister of Finance; and Murray Leith, executive vice-president and director of investment research at Odlum Brown.

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It was hosted by Stuart McNish, with Vancouver Sun and The Province editor in chief Harold Munro.

All parties acknowledged that the economic climate in B.C. had changed significantly since the COVID-19 pandemic, with the sudden onset of inflation and the resulting hikes in interest rates to try to cool the economy.

“The cost of credit will be higher in the post-pandemic world and we are going to have to get used to that,” said Finlayson, who expects inflation will be at four per cent by the end of this year after peaking at seven per cent.

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He said the federal government’s spending programs were making it harder to get inflation down, adding that Canada was a no-go zone for foreign capital.

Finlayson was particularly critical of the federal government’s decision to heavily subsidize a Volkswagen battery plant in Ontario.

“Spending $16 billion to attract one VW factory is a horrifically bad deployment of tax money,” he said.

“The federal government has floundered in terms of creating a strategy to build an economy. Their idea is to increase population. Immigration is good, but is not the foundation for building a competitive and innovative economy.”

Thompson said that in Vancouver, young people had never seen a recession before and are no longer taking jobs for granted.

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She said she didn’t reach out to the federal government to talk about funding.

“It’s not an effective use of our time,” she said.

Conroy said the provincial government was always lobbying the federal government for support, especially around transportation infrastructure. 

She said that while the federal government was responsible for funding for Indigenous housing, the provincial government had stepped in due to some housing that was in appalling condition.

“We have invested in Indigenous housing and we are the only province doing it,” she said. “It’s a fight, we shouldn’t have to drag them kicking and screaming to the table.”

Leith said the federal government needs to focus on encouraging investment in business and technology rather than housing.

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He said the economic outlook is uncertain in B.C., with decent odds there is going to be a recession.

“The stock market goes down the year before a recession and rallies in the year of a recession,” he said.

Pela pointed to a recent Vancouver Board of Trade study that highlighted a recent increase in indirect and direct tax burdens being placed on businesses.

“As a region, we need to look at our competitive advantage as a small and open economy,” he said.


  1. What the Greater Vancouver Board of Trade wants from the B.C. government


  2. B.C. households consumed by stress over debt and inflation


  3. Volkswagen to build first North American battery cell plant in Canada

dcarrigg@postmedia.com


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Economy

Statistics Canada reports wholesale sales higher in July

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OTTAWA – Statistics Canada says wholesale sales, excluding petroleum, petroleum products, and other hydrocarbons and excluding oilseed and grain, rose 0.4 per cent to $82.7 billion in July.

The increase came as sales in the miscellaneous subsector gained three per cent to reach $10.5 billion in July, helped by strength in the agriculture supplies industry group, which rose 9.2 per cent.

The food, beverage and tobacco subsector added 1.7 per cent to total $15 billion in July.

The personal and household goods subsector fell 2.5 per cent to $12.1 billion.

In volume terms, overall wholesale sales rose 0.5 per cent in July.

Statistics Canada started including oilseed and grain as well as the petroleum and petroleum products subsector as part of wholesale trade last year, but is excluding the data from monthly analysis until there is enough historical data.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 13, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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B.C.’s debt and deficit forecast to rise as the provincial election nears

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VICTORIA – British Columbia is forecasting a record budget deficit and a rising debt of almost $129 billion less than two weeks before the start of a provincial election campaign where economic stability and future progress are expected to be major issues.

Finance Minister Katrine Conroy, who has announced her retirement and will not seek re-election in the Oct. 19 vote, said Tuesday her final budget update as minister predicts a deficit of $8.9 billion, up $1.1 billion from a forecast she made earlier this year.

Conroy said she acknowledges “challenges” facing B.C., including three consecutive deficit budgets, but expected improved economic growth where the province will start to “turn a corner.”

The $8.9 billion deficit forecast for 2024-2025 is followed by annual deficit projections of $6.7 billion and $6.1 billion in 2026-2027, Conroy said at a news conference outlining the government’s first quarterly financial update.

Conroy said lower corporate income tax and natural resource revenues and the increased cost of fighting wildfires have had some of the largest impacts on the budget.

“I want to acknowledge the economic uncertainties,” she said. “While global inflation is showing signs of easing and we’ve seen cuts to the Bank of Canada interest rates, we know that the challenges are not over.”

Conroy said wildfire response costs are expected to total $886 million this year, more than $650 million higher than originally forecast.

Corporate income tax revenue is forecast to be $638 million lower as a result of federal government updates and natural resource revenues are down $299 million due to lower prices for natural gas, lumber and electricity, she said.

Debt-servicing costs are also forecast to be $344 million higher due to the larger debt balance, the current interest rate and accelerated borrowing to ensure services and capital projects are maintained through the province’s election period, said Conroy.

B.C.’s economic growth is expected to strengthen over the next three years, but the timing of a return to a balanced budget will fall to another minister, said Conroy, who was addressing what likely would be her last news conference as Minister of Finance.

The election is expected to be called on Sept. 21, with the vote set for Oct. 19.

“While we are a strong province, people are facing challenges,” she said. “We have never shied away from taking those challenges head on, because we want to keep British Columbians secure and help them build good lives now and for the long term. With the investments we’re making and the actions we’re taking to support people and build a stronger economy, we’ve started to turn a corner.”

Premier David Eby said before the fiscal forecast was released Tuesday that the New Democrat government remains committed to providing services and supports for people in British Columbia and cuts are not on his agenda.

Eby said people have been hurt by high interest costs and the province is facing budget pressures connected to low resource prices, high wildfire costs and struggling global economies.

The premier said that now is not the time to reduce supports and services for people.

Last month’s year-end report for the 2023-2024 budget saw the province post a budget deficit of $5.035 billion, down from the previous forecast of $5.9 billion.

Eby said he expects government financial priorities to become a major issue during the upcoming election, with the NDP pledging to continue to fund services and the B.C. Conservatives looking to make cuts.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 10, 2024.

Note to readers: This is a corrected story. A previous version said the debt would be going up to more than $129 billion. In fact, it will be almost $129 billion.

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Economy

Mark Carney mum on carbon-tax advice, future in politics at Liberal retreat

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NANAIMO, B.C. – Former Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney says he’ll be advising the Liberal party to flip some the challenges posed by an increasingly divided and dangerous world into an economic opportunity for Canada.

But he won’t say what his specific advice will be on economic issues that are politically divisive in Canada, like the carbon tax.

He presented his vision for the Liberals’ economic policy at the party’s caucus retreat in Nanaimo, B.C. today, after he agreed to help the party prepare for the next election as chair of a Liberal task force on economic growth.

Carney has been touted as a possible leadership contender to replace Justin Trudeau, who has said he has tried to coax Carney into politics for years.

Carney says if the prime minister asks him to do something he will do it to the best of his ability, but won’t elaborate on whether the new adviser role could lead to him adding his name to a ballot in the next election.

Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland says she has been taking advice from Carney for years, and that his new position won’t infringe on her role.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 10, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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