The Liberal government’s long-promised plan to transition Canada’s labour force to respond to climate change says a clean energy economy will not prompt massive unemployment in the country’s energy towns.
It says if Canada plays its cards right, the clean energy economy will create so many jobs there may not be enough workers to fill them. But some of it will require the traditional oil and gas sectors to “aggressively” lower the greenhouse gas emissions produced as the fuels are extracted.
“According to numerous studies, rather than a shortage of jobs, in Canada we are much more likely to see an abundance of sustainable jobs with a shortage of workers required to fill them,” reads the new plan published Friday by the federal government.
The 32-page “Sustainable Jobs Plan” comes more than three years after the federal Liberals promised a road map that will protect jobs as Canada adjusts from a combustion-energy powerhouse to a clean-energy economy.
While lacking many specifics, it outlines in broad terms the ways the federal government will help maintain and create energy jobs, as well as transfer workers to net-zero jobs as needed. It includes a new government office to oversee the process, training programs, Indigenous consultation and inclusion and better data to fully understand the jobs that exist now and that could exist in the future.
The promise of job creation mirrors comments made in January by the Pathways Alliance, a consortium of six oilsands companies working to find ways to curb their production emissions, including through large-scale carbon capture and storage systems.
In a roundtable interview with The Canadian Press on Jan. 16, Cenovus CEO Alex Pourbaix said the industry’s investments to decarbonize production will “create a boom in the oil-producing provinces that is equivalent to what happened in the ’80s and the ’90s.” Pathways estimates that will create 35,000 new jobs.
The report’s name alone, however, signals the political quicksand it lands on, with accusations from Alberta in recent weeks that the federal government intends to impose a “just transition” plan on the province that will wipe out the energy sector entirely.
While the term “just transition” is the international standard used to describe ensuring the protection of workers during economic changes, critics including Alberta Premier Danielle Smith seized on it as evidence the Liberals plan to shut down her province’s energy industry.
Natural Resources Minister Jonathan Wilkinson has said for months he prefers the term “sustainable jobs” because it is more accurate.
Smith has appeared more open to the notion of a “sustainable jobs” strategy but her skepticism at the Liberals’ intentions remains high.
Just one day before the plan was released, Smith wrote again to Prime Minister Justin Trudeau asking him to put the whole thing on ice because it poses “an unconstitutional and existential threat to the Alberta economy and the jobs of hundreds of thousands of Albertans.”
Trudeau and Smith met in Ottawa on Feb. 7, where they discussed ways to co-operate on clean energy including Alberta’s willingness to provide more government aid for oil producers to install carbon capture and storage systems.
But she said in her letter Thursday that scrapping the jobs transition plan was a “non-negotiable condition” of Alberta doing that.
In a statement Friday, Smith said she would contact Ottawa soon to discuss issues she has with the rebranded plan, including its failure to recognize Alberta’s right to develop its own natural resources and manage its workforce.
“Implementing a federal plan of this magnitude in areas of exclusive provincial jurisdiction doesn’t merely require piecemeal ‘discussions’ with the provinces, it requires outright provincial approval and co-operation,” Smith said.
The report goes out of its way to try and debunk accusations the clean energy economy is an attempt to phase out Canada’s oil and gas industry completely.
It says global demand for oil will be down 75 per cent by 2050, and demand for gas about half of what it is today. But it says oil and gas will be needed for non-combustion uses, including in plastics, solvents, lubricants and waxes.
Canada can still have a vibrant, if smaller, oil and gas industry by 2050 but only with effort to make production-related emissions “ultralow.”
“It is in this context that aggressively lowering emissions from the production of fossil fuels, in line with Canada’s climate commitments, is both a competitive advantage and a source of sustainable jobs,” the report said.
It also said while many people will need training for the jobs emerging in clean energy and battery production, some jobs in the oilpatch already come with the skills needed for things like hydrogen production and biofuel development.
Adam Legge, president of the Business Council of Alberta, said he would “cautiously read (the plan) as an opportunity.” Instead of suggesting Alberta will be left out of the economy of the future, he believes Alberta can capitalize on its wealth of natural resources while also decarbonizing.
“From what our read is, the (federal) definition of sustainable jobs is wide-ranging,” he said. “It doesn’t look to exclude jobs in areas like (carbon capture and storage) or emissions reduction technology that would be deployed in industries like the oil and gas sector or the agriculture sector.”
However, Legge said to be successful, the federal government will have to work with the provinces to hammer out a wide-ranging industrial strategy and keep up with the incentives for clean energy technologies offered by the United States.
“You’ve got to create the economic base for the jobs to happen, versus trying to skill and train people first and then hoping that the jobs and industries emerge,” he said.
OTTAWA – Canada’s unemployment rate held steady at 6.5 per cent last month as hiring remained weak across the economy.
Statistics Canada’s labour force survey on Friday said employment rose by a modest 15,000 jobs in October.
Business, building and support services saw the largest gain in employment.
Meanwhile, finance, insurance, real estate, rental and leasing experienced the largest decline.
Many economists see weakness in the job market continuing in the short term, before the Bank of Canada’s interest rate cuts spark a rebound in economic growth next year.
Despite ongoing softness in the labour market, however, strong wage growth has raged on in Canada. Average hourly wages in October grew 4.9 per cent from a year ago, reaching $35.76.
Friday’s report also shed some light on the financial health of households.
According to the agency, 28.8 per cent of Canadians aged 15 or older were living in a household that had difficulty meeting financial needs – like food and housing – in the previous four weeks.
That was down from 33.1 per cent in October 2023 and 35.5 per cent in October 2022, but still above the 20.4 per cent figure recorded in October 2020.
People living in a rented home were more likely to report difficulty meeting financial needs, with nearly four in 10 reporting that was the case.
That compares with just under a quarter of those living in an owned home by a household member.
Immigrants were also more likely to report facing financial strain last month, with about four out of 10 immigrants who landed in the last year doing so.
That compares with about three in 10 more established immigrants and one in four of people born in Canada.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.
The Canadian Institute for Health Information says health-care spending in Canada is projected to reach a new high in 2024.
The annual report released Thursday says total health spending is expected to hit $372 billion, or $9,054 per Canadian.
CIHI’s national analysis predicts expenditures will rise by 5.7 per cent in 2024, compared to 4.5 per cent in 2023 and 1.7 per cent in 2022.
This year’s health spending is estimated to represent 12.4 per cent of Canada’s gross domestic product. Excluding two years of the pandemic, it would be the highest ratio in the country’s history.
While it’s not unusual for health expenditures to outpace economic growth, the report says this could be the case for the next several years due to Canada’s growing population and its aging demographic.
Canada’s per capita spending on health care in 2022 was among the highest in the world, but still less than countries such as the United States and Sweden.
The report notes that the Canadian dental and pharmacare plans could push health-care spending even further as more people who previously couldn’t afford these services start using them.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.
Canadian Press health coverage receives support through a partnership with the Canadian Medical Association. CP is solely responsible for this content.
As Canadians wake up to news that Donald Trump will return to the White House, the president-elect’s protectionist stance is casting a spotlight on what effect his second term will have on Canada-U.S. economic ties.
Some Canadian business leaders have expressed worry over Trump’s promise to introduce a universal 10 per cent tariff on all American imports.
A Canadian Chamber of Commerce report released last month suggested those tariffs would shrink the Canadian economy, resulting in around $30 billion per year in economic costs.
More than 77 per cent of Canadian exports go to the U.S.
Canada’s manufacturing sector faces the biggest risk should Trump push forward on imposing broad tariffs, said Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters president and CEO Dennis Darby. He said the sector is the “most trade-exposed” within Canada.
“It’s in the U.S.’s best interest, it’s in our best interest, but most importantly for consumers across North America, that we’re able to trade goods, materials, ingredients, as we have under the trade agreements,” Darby said in an interview.
“It’s a more complex or complicated outcome than it would have been with the Democrats, but we’ve had to deal with this before and we’re going to do our best to deal with it again.”
American economists have also warned Trump’s plan could cause inflation and possibly a recession, which could have ripple effects in Canada.
It’s consumers who will ultimately feel the burden of any inflationary effect caused by broad tariffs, said Darby.
“A tariff tends to raise costs, and it ultimately raises prices, so that’s something that we have to be prepared for,” he said.
“It could tilt production mandates. A tariff makes goods more expensive, but on the same token, it also will make inputs for the U.S. more expensive.”
A report last month by TD economist Marc Ercolao said research shows a full-scale implementation of Trump’s tariff plan could lead to a near-five per cent reduction in Canadian export volumes to the U.S. by early-2027, relative to current baseline forecasts.
Retaliation by Canada would also increase costs for domestic producers, and push import volumes lower in the process.
“Slowing import activity mitigates some of the negative net trade impact on total GDP enough to avoid a technical recession, but still produces a period of extended stagnation through 2025 and 2026,” Ercolao said.
Since the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement came into effect in 2020, trade between Canada and the U.S. has surged by 46 per cent, according to the Toronto Region Board of Trade.
With that deal is up for review in 2026, Canadian Chamber of Commerce president and CEO Candace Laing said the Canadian government “must collaborate effectively with the Trump administration to preserve and strengthen our bilateral economic partnership.”
“With an impressive $3.6 billion in daily trade, Canada and the United States are each other’s closest international partners. The secure and efficient flow of goods and people across our border … remains essential for the economies of both countries,” she said in a statement.
“By resisting tariffs and trade barriers that will only raise prices and hurt consumers in both countries, Canada and the United States can strengthen resilient cross-border supply chains that enhance our shared economic security.”
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.
