Climate change, Indigenous and economic issues replace COVID-19 response as top of mind
July 16, 2021 – Active speculation that the country is no more than a month away from a federal election campaign means political leaders are already trying to pierce the long-deserved summer reverie of Canadian voters.
In the earliest days of this horse-race, new data from the non-profit Angus Reid Institute finds that would-be voters put the parties most likely to end up forming government in a statistical tie – with the incumbent Liberals under leader Justin Trudeau a mere two points ahead of the Conservative Party led by Erin O’Toole (33% versus 31%). The NDP remains in third place at 20 per cent, with the Green Party (3%) and Bloc Quebecois (7%) in single digits nationally.
These numbers come as focus on the Trudeau government’s management of the COVID-19 pandemic falls to its lowest point since the crisis began.
Handling of the pandemic has been a relative strength for the Liberal government over the last year and a half. Now, just one-in-five (19%) identify it as a top issue, down from 45 per cent in March. Replacing this issue in the public consciousness are matters of climate change, economic recovery, the size of the deficit, and Indigenous issues, the latter of which has picked up notable traction in recent months.
And while issues may galvanize voters, they appear to be less inspired by the leaders in main contention. As the favourability of Trudeau and O’Toole decline, NDP leader Jagmeet Singh and Bloc Quebecois leader Yves-Francois Blanchet enjoy slight net positive favourability.
As for the prospect of another Liberal victory – the nation is split. While few say they’d be “thrilled” (6%), a significant segment say it’s an outcome that would leave them “content” (33%). The rest are less sunny about it: one-quarter would be unhappy with that result (25%), while close to three-in-ten would be distraught (28%).
More Key Findings:
While the Liberal lead is slim, it is concentrated in key regions of the country. The party leads the CPC by four points in British Columbia and Ontario, and is competitive with the BQ in Quebec, well ahead of the Conservatives.
Prime Minister Trudeau has an approval rating of 40 per cent this quarter. Just nine per cent strongly approve of his performance, while 39 per cent strongly disapprove.
Three-in-five Canadians (58%) have an unfavourable view of CPC leader Erin O’Toole, the highest level since he took over leadership of the party
About ARI
The Angus Reid Institute (ARI) was founded in October 2014 by pollster and sociologist, Dr. Angus Reid. ARI is a national, not-for-profit, non-partisan public opinion research foundation established to advance education by commissioning, conducting and disseminating to the public accessible and impartial statistical data, research and policy analysis on economics, political science, philanthropy, public administration, domestic and international affairs and other socio-economic issues of importance to Canada and its world.
INDEX
Part One: Top Issues
Top national issues
Which voters care about what – and where?
Part Two: Federal leaders
Trudeau approval
Opposition leaders
Part Three: Vote intention
Competitive picture sees Liberals lead by two points
Regional vote intent
Age and gender
Part Four: Feelings about a third Liberal victory?
Part One: Top Issues
When a federal election is called this year, it will take place in an exceptional time in Canadian history. The nation is coming out of – and actively working to prevent the prolongation of – a once-in-100-year pandemic that has dominated the lives of potential voters for nearly 18 months. As COVID-19 loosens its grip on Canadians, their priorities are shifting to other issues, including another potential global crisis in climate change and the urgency of stimulating an economy that dipped into the worst recession since the Great Depression amid lockdowns and closures.
Top national issues
As nearly 80 per cent of the eligible population has been jabbed with at least one dose of a vaccine — with half having received two — and as countrywide daily case counts plunge to levels not seen since last summer, concern for COVID-19 has plummeted down the list of issues Canadians care most about.
Even as recently as June, the coronavirus response was the second highest priority for the public. Now, just one-in-five Canadians say it is among their top three broad concerns for the country. In its stead, health care and climate change have risen to their own level of heightened priority, followed by key economic issues:
In the face of continuing confirmations of the number of unmarked graves at former residential schools across the country, Indigenous issues continue to be prioritized at levels much higher than those noted over the past 18 months.
Which voters care about what – and where?
The country, however, is not unified in its concern over the environment. Albertans are primarily concerned with the economy, the energy sector, and the federal deficit. Those in Saskatchewan also put these three issues at top of mind, while every other region of the country prioritizes climate change among its top three concerns. Conspicuously absent from the regional priorities list is COVID-19 response. That issue does not rank in the top three in any region of the country:
Priorities also vary for different party supporters. The economy, and issues related to it including the growing deficit and taxes, top the list for those who say they will support the Conservative Party. Potential Liberal and Bloc Quebecois supporters are more keyed into discussions about the future of health care, while all non-Conservative voters currently rank climate change among their top three national concerns:
Part Two: Federal leaders
Trudeau approval
A majority continue to disapprove of the Prime Minister – even as half of Canadians now say he has done a good job of handling the pandemic. Over half (56%) say they moderately disapprove or strongly disapprove of him, while just 40 per cent say they strongly approve or moderately approve:
Strong disapproval of Trudeau is also at a pandemic peak and is nearing a return to pre-COVID-19 levels when over 40 per cent of respondents strongly disapproved of him:
While over half of all age and gender groups voice net disapproval of Trudeau, he enjoys the most support from women aged 55 and older, importantly, the largest voting block in the 2019 election. That said, among the second largest voting block, men over the age of 55, he enjoys the strongest disapproval, with two-thirds saying they moderately or strongly disapprove of him:
Opposition leaders
Little has changed for Conservative leader Erin O’Toole over the last month. While his 58 per cent unfavourable mark is a new low (or high) since he took over party leadership, opinions towards him are statistically identical to those from June as he continues to experience an overall unfavourable view from the electorate:
O’Toole’s unfavourability is at majority levels among all age and gender groups, though men over the age of 54 offer him a 43 per cent favourability – his highest such mark:
The Liberals and Conservatives can only look enviously at the favourability of NDP leader Jagmeet Singh and Bloc Quebecois leader Yves-Francois Blanchet. Both enjoy net favourable ratings amongst the electorate (Blanchet in Quebec only). On the other hand, and more importantly, Bloc and NDP supporters may in turn look enviously at Liberal and Conservative vote intent levels.
Meanwhile, voters aren’t warming up to embattled Green leader Annamie Paul, whose party is considering revoking her membership as the fight over her leadership grows ever more public, and publicly uncomfortable. While two-in-five (39%) don’t know enough to form an opinion, slightly more (42%) see her in an unfavourable light:
Jagmeet Singh’s net favourability is driven by younger demographics, in particular women under the age of 35. Within this group, 64 per cent view him favourably, while just 21 per cent disagree:
In terms of net favourability, only Jagmeet Singh and Yves-Francois Blanchet receive a positive score. Each of the other three major federal party leaders are much worse off:
Part Three: Vote intention
Competitive picture sees Liberals lead by two points
Federal vote intention is competitive, with the Liberals and Conservatives locked in a neck-and-neck race. One-in-three (33%) say they would vote for a third Liberal term if an election were held, while 31 per cent would support the opposition CPC. Despite having the most optimistically viewed leader, the NDP garners just 20 per cent of the vote:
The picture remains largely unchanged from recent snapshots. The largest gap between the Conservatives and the Liberals this year was in January, when five percentage points separated the two parties. Even at the peak of the Liberals’ pandemic climb in May 2020, the gap between the two parties was six percentage points:
Regional vote intent
The regional picture also looks familiar since ARI last checked in. The Conservatives continue to enjoy majority support in Alberta and Saskatchewan, and a plurality of support from Manitobans, while the three-way NDP-CPC-Liberal split in B.C. has narrowed since June.
In Ontario and Quebec, the Liberals fare well. Trudeau’s party leads by four points in Ontario and leads the Bloc Quebecois in Quebec by three. Importantly, the CPC generates the support of just 16 per cent of voters in Quebec.
Age and gender
Each party will enter a potential election with its own demographic strengths and weaknesses. The Liberals lead by a considerable margin among women over the age of 34, while the NDP hold the advantage with younger women. Men of all ages show a preference for the CPC, though among young men all three parties receive considerable support:
Part Four: Feelings about a third Liberal victory?
Reflecting Trudeau’s majority disapproval noted above, feelings about the prospect of another Liberal victory inspire more anger than euphoria, a far cry from the “Trudeaumania 2.0” of the 2015 election.
Just two-in-five would be pleased with a Liberal majority.
Meantime, 25 per cent say that result would leave them “unhappy” while nearly three-in-ten say they would be outright “distraught”:
Interesting, though they say they would support the Liberal Party if an election were held, just one-in-five supporters of the incumbent party would be thrilled if it resulted in a majority. Half of NDP supporters say a Liberal majority would be fine with them, while CPC voters are near unanimous that it would result in very negative feelings for them:
The people unhappiest about the possibility of a Trudeau majority are in Alberta and Saskatchewan (where the CPC enjoys majority support). A majority in Alberta (57%) and half (49%) in Saskatchewan say they would be “distraught” by that outcome, while those in Ontario and on the east coast in the Atlantic provinces would be happiest if that came to pass:
A plurality of women of all ages, and of men under the age of 35, would be “content” with a Liberal majority, while a plurality of men age 35 to 54 and men over the age of 55 would be “distraught”:
Survey Methodology:
The Angus Reid Institute conducted an online survey from July 14-16, 2021, among a representative randomized sample of 1,625 Canadian adults who are members of Angus Reid Forum. For comparison purposes only, a probability sample of this size would carry a margin of error of +/- 2.0 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. Discrepancies in or between totals are due to rounding. The survey was self-commissioned and paid for by ARI. Detailed tables are found at the end of this release.
For detailed results by age, gender, region, education, and other demographics, click here.
To read the full report, including detailed tables and methodology, click here.
RICHMOND, Va. (AP) — Democrats who control both chambers of the Virginia legislature are hoping to make good on promises made on the campaign trail, including becoming the first Southern state to expand constitutional protections for abortion access.
The House Privileges and Elections Committee advanced three proposed constitutional amendments Wednesday, including a measure to protect reproductive rights. Its members also discussed measures to repeal a now-defunct state constitutional ban on same-sex marriage and ways to revise Virginia’s process to restore voting rights for people who served time for felony crimes.
“This meeting was an important next step considering the moment in history we find ourselves in,” Democratic Del. Cia Price, the committee chair, said during a news conference. “We have urgent threats to our freedoms that could impact constituents in all of the districts we serve.”
The at-times raucous meeting will pave the way for the House and Senate to take up the resolutions early next year after lawmakers tabled the measures last January. Democrats previously said the move was standard practice, given that amendments are typically introduced in odd-numbered years. But Republican Minority Leader Todd Gilbert said Wednesday the committee should not have delved into the amendments before next year’s legislative session. He said the resolutions, particularly the abortion amendment, need further vetting.
“No one who is still serving remembers it being done in this way ever,” Gilbert said after the meeting. “Certainly not for something this important. This is as big and weighty an issue as it gets.”
The Democrats’ legislative lineup comes after Republican Governor Glenn Youngkin, to the dismay of voting-rights advocates, rolled back a process to restore people’s civil rights after they completed sentences for felonies. Virginia is the only state that permanently bans anyone convicted of a felony from voting unless a governor restores their rights.
“This amendment creates a process that is bounded by transparent rules and criteria that will apply to everybody — it’s not left to the discretion of a single individual,” Del. Elizabeth Bennett-Parker, the patron of the voting rights resolution, which passed along party lines, said at the news conference.
Though Democrats have sparred with the governor over their legislative agenda, constitutional amendments put forth by lawmakers do not require his signature, allowing the Democrat-led House and Senate to bypass Youngkin’s blessing.
Instead, the General Assembly must pass proposed amendments twice in at least two years, with a legislative election sandwiched between each statehouse session. After that, the public can vote by referendum on the issues. The cumbersome process will likely hinge upon the success of all three amendments on Democrats’ ability to preserve their edge in the House and Senate, where they hold razor-thin majorities.
It’s not the first time lawmakers have attempted to champion the three amendments. Republicans in a House subcommittee killed a constitutional amendment to restore voting rights in 2022, a year after the measure passed in a Democrat-led House. The same subcommittee also struck down legislation supporting a constitutional amendment to repeal an amendment from 2006 banning marriage equality.
On Wednesday, a bipartisan group of lawmakers voted 16-5 in favor of legislation protecting same-sex marriage, with four Republicans supporting the resolution.
“To say the least, voters enacted this (amendment) in 2006, and we have had 100,000 voters a year become of voting age since then,” said Del. Mark Sickles, who sponsored the amendment as one of the first openly gay men serving in the General Assembly. “Many people have changed their opinions of this as the years have passed.”
A constitutional amendment protecting abortion previously passed the Senate in 2023 but died in a Republican-led House. On Wednesday, the amendment passed on party lines.
If successful, the resolution proposed by House Majority Leader Charniele Herring would be part of a growing trend of reproductive rights-related ballot questions given to voters. Since 2022, 18 questions have gone before voters across the U.S., and they have sided with abortion rights advocates 14 times.
The voters have approved constitutional amendments ensuring the right to abortion until fetal viability in nine states: Arizona, California, Colorado, Maryland, Michigan, Missouri, Montana, Ohio and Vermont. Voters also passed a right-to-abortion measure in Nevada in 2024, but it must be passed again in 2026 to be added to the state constitution.
As lawmakers debated the measure, roughly 18 members spoke. Mercedes Perkins, at 38 weeks pregnant, described the importance of women making decisions about their own bodies. Rhea Simon, another Virginia resident, anecdotally described how reproductive health care shaped her life.
Then all at once, more than 50 people lined up to speak against the abortion amendment.
“Let’s do the compassionate thing and care for mothers and all unborn children,” resident Sheila Furey said.
The audience gave a collective “Amen,” followed by a round of applause.
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Associated Press writer Geoff Mulvihill in Cherry Hill, New Jersey, contributed to this report.
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Olivia Diaz is a corps member for The Associated Press/Report for America Statehouse News Initiative.
NEW YORK (AP) — President-elect Donald Trump says he will nominate anti-vaccine activist Robert F. Kennedy Jr. to lead the Department of Health and Human Services, putting him in charge of a massive agency that oversees everything from drug, vaccine and food safety to medical research and the social safety net programs Medicare and Medicaid.
“For too long, Americans have been crushed by the industrial food complex and drug companies who have engaged in deception, misinformation, and disinformation when it comes to Public Health,” Trump said in a post on his Truth Social site announcing the appointment. Kennedy, he said, would “Make America Great and Healthy Again!”
Kennedy, a former Democrat who ran as an independent in this year’s presidential race, abandoned his bid after striking a deal to give Trump his endorsement with a promise to have a role in health policy in the administration.
He and Trump have since become good friends, with Kennedy frequently receiving loud applause at Trump’s rallies.
The expected appointment was first reported by Politico Thursday.
A longtime vaccine skeptic, Kennedy is an attorney who has built a loyal following over several decades of people who admire his lawsuits against major pesticide and pharmaceutical companies. He has pushed for tighter regulations around the ingredients in foods.
With the Trump campaign, he worked to shore up support among young mothers in particular, with his message of making food healthier in the U.S., promising to model regulations imposed in Europe. In a nod to Trump’s original campaign slogan, he named the effort “Make America Healthy Again.”
It remains unclear how that will square with Trump’s history of deregulation of big industries, including food. Trump pushed for fewer inspections of the meat industry, for example.
Kennedy’s stance on vaccines has also made him a controversial figure among Democrats and some Republicans, raising question about his ability to get confirmed, even in a GOP-controlled Senate. Kennedy has espoused misinformation around the safety of vaccines, including pushing a totally discredited theory that childhood vaccines cause autism.
He also has said he would recommend removing fluoride from drinking water. The addition of the material has been cited as leading to improved dental health.
HHS has more than 80,000 employees across the country. It houses the Food and Drug Administration, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the Medicare and Medicaid programs and the National Institutes of Health.
Kennedy’s anti-vaccine nonprofit group, Children’s Health Defense, currently has a lawsuit pending against a number of news organizations, among them The Associated Press, accusing them of violating antitrust laws by taking action to identify misinformation, including about COVID-19 and COVID-19 vaccines. Kennedy took leave from the group when he announced his run for president but is listed as one of its attorneys in the lawsuit.
NICOSIA, Cyprus (AP) — In a Cypriot National Guard camp, Ukrainians are being trained on how to identify, locate and dispose of landmines and other unexploded munitions that litter huge swaths of their country, killing and maiming hundreds of people, including children.
Analysts say Ukraine is among the countries that are the most affected by landmines and discarded explosives, as a result of Russia’s ongoing war.
According to U.N. figures, some 399 people have been killed and 915 wounded from landmines and other munitions since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine on Feb. 24, 2022, equal to the number of casualties reported from 2014-2021. More than 1 in 10 of those casualties have been children.
The economic impact is costing billions to the Ukrainian economy. Landmines and other munitions are preventing the sowing of 5 million hectares, or 10%, of the country’s agricultural land.
Cyprus stepped up to offer its facilities as part of the European Union’s Military Assistance Mission to Ukraine. So far, almost 100 Ukrainian armed forces personnel have taken part in three training cycles over the last two years, said Cyprus Foreign Ministry spokesperson Theodoros Gotsis.
“We are committed to continuing this support for as long as it takes,” Gotsis told the Associated Press, adding that the Cyprus government has covered the 250,000 euro ($262,600) training cost.
Cyprus opted to offer such training owing to its own landmine issues dating back five decades when the island nation was ethnically divided when Turkey invaded following a coup that sought union with Greece. The United Nations has removed some 27,000 landmines from a buffer zone that cuts across the island, but minefields remain on either side. The Cypriot government says it has disposed of all anti-personnel mines in line with its obligations under an international treaty that bans the use of such munitions.
In Cyprus, Ukrainians undergo rigorous theoretical and practical training over a five-week Basic Demining and Clearance course that includes instruction on distinguishing and safely handling landmines and other explosive munitions, such as rockets, 155 mm artillery shells, rocket-propelled grenades and mortar shells.
Theoretical training uses inert munitions identical to the actual explosives.
Most of the course is comprised of hands-on training focusing on the on-site destruction of unexploded munitions using explosives, the chief training officer told the Associated Press. The officer spoke on condition of anonymity because he’s not authorized to disclose his identity for security reasons.
“They’re trained on ordnance disposal using real explosives,” the officer said. “That will be the trainees’ primary task when they return.”
Cypriot officials said the Ukrainian trainees did not want to be either interviewed or photographed.
Defusing discarded munitions or landmines in areas where explosive charges can’t be used — for instance, near a hospital — is not part of this course because that’s the task of highly trained teams of disposal experts whose training can last as long as eight months, the officer said.
Trainees, divided into groups of eight, are taught how to operate metal detectors and other tools for detecting munitions like prodders — long, thin rods which are used to gently probe beneath the ground’s surface in search of landmines and other explosive ordnance.
Another tool is a feeler, a rod that’s used to detect booby-trapped munitions. There are many ways to booby-trap such munitions, unlike landmines which require direct pressure to detonate.
“Booby-trapped munitions are a widespread phenomenon in Ukraine,” the chief training officer explained.
Training, primarily conducted by experts from other European Union countries, takes place both in forested and urban areas at different army camps and follows strict safety protocols.
The short, intense training period keeps the Ukrainians focused.
“You see the interest they show during instruction: they ask questions, they want to know what mistakes they’ve made and the correct way of doing it,” the officer said.
Humanitarian data and analysis group ACAPS said in a Jan. 2024 report that 174,000 sq. kilometers (67,182 sq. miles) or nearly 29% of Ukraine’s territory needs to be surveyed for landmines and other explosive ordnance.
More than 10 million people are said to live in areas where demining action is needed.
Since 2022, Russian forces have used at least 13 types of anti-personnel mines, which target people. Russia never signed the 1997 Ottawa Convention banning the use of anti-personnel mines, but the use of such mines is nonetheless considered a violation of its obligations under international law.
Russia also uses 13 types of anti-tank mines.
The International Campaign to Ban Landmines said in its 2023 Landmine Monitor report that Ukrainian government forces may have also used antipersonnel landmines in contravention of the Mine Ban Treaty in and around the city of Izium during 2022, when the city was under Russian control.
