CPC leads in vote intention, Liberal Party down seven points
March 4, 2020 – Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and his minority Liberal government are bearing the scars of what has been a most bruising start to a federal government’s year.
While the first 60 days of 2019 were defined by a political scandal, the beginning of 2020 has been marked by events at home and abroad that have demanded deft and adroit response.
Unfortunately for Trudeau, the latest public opinion data from the Angus Reid Institute finds the PM’s performance has been lacking in recent weeks, particularly on the energy and climate change front, and this has had a negative impact on his approval numbers.
The most recent quarterly survey of more than 5000 adults shows the improved view of him in the wake of the devastating Iran plane crash that killed 57 Canadians in January has evaporated, after weeks of conflict and lack of resolution around the Coastal GasLink blockades.
The Prime Minister’s approval rating has dropped 10 points, and now sits at 33 per cent, right around where it was for most of 2019.
More Key Findings:
34 per cent of Canadians would vote for the Conservative Party of Canada if a new election were held, exactly the proportion of votes that the party received in October, compared to one-quarter (26%) who say they’d vote Liberal
Trudeau’s approval remains strongest among Canadians under 35 years old. Approval among this group, however, has not held a majority since 2018, and is currently down to 37 per cent
Each party maintains a significant portion of its voters from 2019. Notably, however, the Liberal Party and Green Party appear to have lost the most support, with one-in-three past voters for each saying they would vote differently now
About ARI
The Angus Reid Institute (ARI) was founded in October 2014 by pollster and sociologist, Dr. Angus Reid. ARI is a national, not-for-profit, non-partisan public opinion research foundation established to advance education by commissioning, conducting and disseminating to the public accessible and impartial statistical data, research and policy analysis on economics, political science, philanthropy, public administration, domestic and international affairs and other socio-economic issues of importance to Canada and its world.
INDEX:
Part 1 – The Canadian Landscape
Environment, health care are top issues
Economic optimism increasing
Half say Canada is on the wrong track
Part 2 – Party Leader Dynamics
Trudeau’s approval down 10 points
Leader favourability comparison
Part 3 – Vote Intention
Significant age and gender divides persist
The regional picture
Part 1 – The Canadian Landscape
Environment, health are top issues
Amid nationwide protests over the Coastal Gaslink natural gas pipeline in northern British Columbia and the cancellation of a major oil sands mine in northern Alberta, the issue Canadians care about most continues to be the country’s handling of climate change and the environment. More than one-in-three Canadians (36%) choose that issue as one of their primary national concerns.
Exemplifying the tension in Canada, however, issues related to energy, natural resources and pipelines are also chosen as a top issue by one-quarter of Canadians (23%). Finding the balance between environment and industry also has ramifications for the country’s economy, which is considered to be among the most important issues in Canada by one-in-four (24%).
Views of national issues across the country are varied, though there are some notable trends. Health care, for instance, is a top two issue in Ontario, Quebec and Atlantic Canada. Meanwhile, energy and natural resources appear in the top three in all provinces west of Ontario, but none east of Manitoba. Climate change is the most common issue across provinces, appearing in the top three for six of the nine provinces canvassed:
*Because its small population precludes drawing discrete samples over multiple waves, data on this question specific to Prince Edward Island is not released.
Economic optimism increasing
Looking at issues at the individual level, Canadian self-assessments of personal economic circumstances has been steadily rising. The percentage of those saying they are better off now than they were last year at this time has risen to a four-year high, with 23 per cent expressing improvement. Unemployment dropped to 5.5 per cent in January and remains close to the lowest level in 43 years. That said, the number who say they are worse off remains higher, at one-in-three (32%):
Meanwhile, optimism for the next year is also rising. Three-in-ten Canadians (29%) say they anticipate being better off next year than they are now, seven points higher than those who say they will be worse off.
Their personal fortunes do not, however, extend to the Canadian economy as a whole. In the face of considerable uncertainty in the resource sector and the unfolding implications of the coronavirus on global trade and the important travel and tourism sector (responsible for approximately 740,000 jobs in 2019), just 13 per cent of Canadians say they think the economy will improve over the next year. Half (51%) say that it will likely worsen:
Half say Canada is on the wrong track
Canadians continue to offer skepticism as to the general direction of the country. Asked whether Canada is on the right or wrong track, half say that they feel the latter is the case (52%) while three-in-ten (29%) say the country is moving in the right direction:
Part 2 – Party Leader Dynamics
Trudeau’s approval down 10 points
The past three months have been a whirlwind for the federal government. It has attempted to deal with enormous international issues such as the fallout of the Iran plane crash that killed 57 Canadians on board, the spread of the coronavirus, and a strained relationship with China, to say nothing of crises at home such as Teck Resources’ withdrawal of its proposed $20 billion dollar mine in northern Alberta, and protesters across the country who shut down railways, bridges and other infrastructure in opposition to the Coastal Gaslink natural gas pipeline in northern B.C.
While Justin Trudeau’s handling of the Iran plane crash was largely praised by Canadians, and led to a boost in his approval to 43 per cent, that positive momentum has been lost as Canadians have been critical of his handling of the Coastal GasLink blockades. 70 per cent of Canadians say Trudeau has done a poor job on that issue, and his approval this quarter is down 10 points, to 33 per cent:
Trudeau’s approval is now back to where it was for most of 2019:
Justin Trudeau’s approval is higher in Ontario, Quebec and Atlantic Canada. His disapproval reaches 80 per cent in Alberta and Saskatchewan.
*Because its small population precludes drawing discrete samples over multiple waves, data on Prince Edward Island is not released.
Consistent with the Angus Reid Institute’s polling conducted throughout his tenure, Trudeau’s approval remains strongest among Canadians under 35 years old. Approval among this group, however, has not held a majority since 2018, and is currently down to 37 per cent:
Looking at age and gender in combination reveals a pattern that has consistently affected Trudeau’s approval rating: Men of all ages are more likely than women their age to have negative opinions of the Prime Minister. Indeed, eight-in-ten men ages 55 and above disapprove of Trudeau’s performance thus far, the highest of any age and gender group.
Leader favourability comparison
Asked a similar question on the country’s opposition leaders, outgoing opposition leader Andrew Scheer fares even worse than Trudeau.
Having resigned as CPC leader in December, Scheer is holding his position in the interim as the party undergoes the process of selecting new leadership. He prompts unfavourable views of 65 per cent of Canadians. As for the other leaders, Canadians are more likely to hold favourable than unfavourable views of NDP leader Jagmeet Singh and Bloc Québécois leader Yves-François Blanchet. A majority (65%), however, say they are either not sure or have never heard of Interim Green Party leader Jo-Ann Roberts (see detailed tables).
Net favourability scores further reveal the extent of Scheer’s unpopularity, while emphasizing Blanchet’s strong favourability in Quebec:
Part 3 – Vote Intention
Against the backdrop of these views of the party leaders is the undercurrent of tension that flows with a minority situation in Parliament. Three main contenders for CPC leadership say if elected to the party’s top spot, they would force an election. If this happened, how would the parties fare?
While current vote intention for the Conservative Party is unchanged, at exactly the 34 per cent that the party received in October, just one-quarter of Canadians (26%) say they would vote for the Liberals if a new election were held. The New Democratic Party has the support of one-in-five (21%) decided and leaning voters.
While the Liberal Party’s support held consistently around one-in-three Canadians since last summer, there appears to have been considerable drop for it and a subsequent rise in support for the New Democratic Party:
Each party maintains a significant portion of its voters from 2019. Notably, however, the Liberal Party and Green Party appear to have lost the most support, with one-in-three past voters for each saying they would vote differently now.
Fewer than seven-in-ten 2019 Liberal voters say that they’re inclined to vote for the party again today, compared to at least eight-in-ten of those who voted for the CPC, NDP or Bloc Quebecois last October.
Significant age and gender divides persist
The Conservative Party continues to garner strong support from one of its key voting blocks: male voters. More men in each age group express an intention to vote for the CPC than for any other party, ranging from a six-point lead with 18- to 34-year-olds, to 28 points among those over 55.
The Conservative advantage does not hold among female voters, with support among all female age groups nearly identical with the Liberals. Young women and young men offer considerable support to the NDP as seen in the table below:
The regional picture
Regionally, the Conservative Party remains relatively uncontested in Alberta and Saskatchewan, with voter support levels above 60 per cent in each province. Perhaps more heartening to CPC supporters, however, the party holds a slight advantage in Ontario, which would likely be the key to any future electoral success for the party. The Liberals now trail in every region of the country, though the CPC advantage is within the margin of error in Ontario, Nova Scotia and New Brunswick:
*Because its small population precludes drawing discrete samples over multiple waves, data on this question specific to Prince Edward Island is not released.
For detailed results by age, gender, region, education, and other demographics, click here.
To read the full report, including detailed tables and methodology, click here.
HALIFAX – Nova Scotia Premier Tim Houston says it’s “disgraceful and demeaning” that a Halifax-area school would request that service members not wear military uniforms to its Remembrance Day ceremony.
Houston’s comments were part of a chorus of criticism levelled at the school — Sackville Heights Elementary — whose administration decided to back away from the plan after the outcry.
A November newsletter from the school in Middle Sackville, N.S., invited Armed Forces members to attend its ceremony but asked that all attendees arrive in civilian attire to “maintain a welcoming environment for all.”
Houston, who is currently running for re-election, accused the school’s leaders of “disgracing themselves while demeaning the people who protect our country” in a post on the social media platform X Thursday night.
“If the people behind this decision had a shred of the courage that our veterans have, this cowardly and insulting idea would have been rejected immediately,” Houston’s post read. There were also several calls for resignations within the school’s administration attached to Houston’s post.
In an email to families Thursday night, the school’s principal, Rachael Webster, apologized and welcomed military family members to attend “in the attire that makes them most comfortable.”
“I recognize this request has caused harm and I am deeply sorry,” Webster’s email read, adding later that the school has the “utmost respect for what the uniform represents.”
Webster said the initial request was out of concern for some students who come from countries experiencing conflict and who she said expressed discomfort with images of war, including military uniforms.
Her email said any students who have concerns about seeing Armed Forces members in uniform can be accommodated in a way that makes them feel safe, but she provided no further details in the message.
Webster did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
At a news conference Friday, Houston said he’s glad the initial request was reversed but said he is still concerned.
“I can’t actually fathom how a decision like that was made,” Houston told reporters Friday, adding that he grew up moving between military bases around the country while his father was in the Armed Forces.
“My story of growing up in a military family is not unique in our province. The tradition of service is something so many of us share,” he said.
“Saying ‘lest we forget’ is a solemn promise to the fallen. It’s our commitment to those that continue to serve and our commitment that we will pass on our respects to the next generation.”
Liberal Leader Zach Churchill also said he’s happy with the school’s decision to allow uniformed Armed Forces members to attend the ceremony, but he said he didn’t think it was fair to question the intentions of those behind the original decision.
“We need to have them (uniforms) on display at Remembrance Day,” he said. “Not only are we celebrating (veterans) … we’re also commemorating our dead who gave the greatest sacrifice for our country and for the freedoms we have.”
NDP Leader Claudia Chender said that while Remembrance Day is an important occasion to honour veterans and current service members’ sacrifices, she said she hopes Houston wasn’t taking advantage of the decision to “play politics with this solemn occasion for his own political gain.”
“I hope Tim Houston reached out to the principal of the school before making a public statement,” she said in a statement.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.
REGINA – Saskatchewan Opposition NDP Leader Carla Beck says she wants to prove to residents her party is the government in waiting as she heads into the incoming legislative session.
Beck held her first caucus meeting with 27 members, nearly double than what she had before the Oct. 28 election but short of the 31 required to form a majority in the 61-seat legislature.
She says her priorities will be health care and cost-of-living issues.
Beck says people need affordability help right now and will press Premier Scott Moe’s Saskatchewan Party government to cut the gas tax and the provincial sales tax on children’s clothing and some grocery items.
Beck’s NDP is Saskatchewan’s largest Opposition in nearly two decades after sweeping Regina and winning all but one seat in Saskatoon.
The Saskatchewan Party won 34 seats, retaining its hold on all of the rural ridings and smaller cities.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.
HALIFAX – Nova Scotia‘s growing population was the subject of debate on Day 12 of the provincial election campaign, with Liberal Leader Zach Churchill arguing immigration levels must be reduced until the province can provide enough housing and health-care services.
Churchill said Thursday a plan by the incumbent Progressive Conservatives to double the province’s population to two million people by the year 2060 is unrealistic and unsustainable.
“That’s a big leap and it’s making life harder for people who live here, (including ) young people looking for a place to live and seniors looking to downsize,” he told a news conference at his campaign headquarters in Halifax.
Anticipating that his call for less immigration might provoke protests from the immigrant community, Churchill was careful to note that he is among the third generation of a family that moved to Nova Scotia from Lebanon.
“I know the value of immigration, the importance of it to our province. We have been built on the backs of an immigrant population. But we just need to do it in a responsible way.”
The Liberal leader said Tim Houston’s Tories, who are seeking a second term in office, have made a mistake by exceeding immigration targets set by the province’s Department of Labour and Immigration. Churchill said a Liberal government would abide by the department’s targets.
In the most recent fiscal year, the government welcomed almost 12,000 immigrants through its nominee program, exceeding the department’s limit by more than 4,000, he said. The numbers aren’t huge, but the increase won’t help ease the province’s shortages in housing and doctors, and the increased strain on its infrastructure, including roads, schools and cellphone networks, Churchill said.
“(The Immigration Department) has done the hard work on this,” he said. “They know where the labour gaps are, and they know what growth is sustainable.”
In response, Houston said his commitment to double the population was a “stretch goal.” And he said the province had long struggled with a declining population before that trend was recently reversed.
“The only immigration that can come into this province at this time is if they are a skilled trade worker or a health-care worker,” Houston said. “The population has grown by two per cent a year, actually quite similar growth to what we experienced under the Liberal government before us.”
Still, Houston said he’s heard Nova Scotians’ concerns about population growth, and he then pivoted to criticize Prime Minister Justin Trudeau for trying to send 6,000 asylum seekers to Nova Scotia, an assertion the federal government has denied.
Churchill said Houston’s claim about asylum seekers was shameful.
“It’s smoke and mirrors,” the Liberal leader said. “He is overshooting his own department’s numbers for sustainable population growth and yet he is trying to blame this on asylum seekers … who aren’t even here.”
In September, federal Immigration Minister Marc Miller said there is no plan to send any asylum seekers to the province without compensation or the consent of the premier. He said the 6,000 number was an “aspirational” figure based on models that reflect each province’s population.
In Halifax, NDP Leader Claudia Chender said it’s clear Nova Scotia needs more doctors, nurses and skilled trades people.
“Immigration has been and always will be a part of the Nova Scotia story, but we need to build as we grow,” Chender said. “This is why we have been pushing the Houston government to build more affordable housing.”
Chender was in a Halifax cafe on Thursday when she promised her party would remove the province’s portion of the harmonized sales tax from all grocery, cellphone and internet bills if elected to govern on Nov. 26. The tax would also be removed from the sale and installation of heat pumps.
“Our focus is on helping people to afford their lives,” Chender told reporters. “We know there are certain things that you can’t live without: food, internet and a phone …. So we know this will have the single biggest impact.”
The party estimates the measure would save the average Nova Scotia family about $1,300 a year.
“That’s a lot more than a one or two per cent HST cut,” Chender said, referring to the Progressive Conservative pledge to reduce the tax by one percentage point and the Liberal promise to trim it by two percentage points.
Elsewhere on the campaign trail, Houston announced that a Progressive Conservative government would make parking free at all Nova Scotia hospitals and health-care centres. The promise was also made by the Liberals in their election platform released Monday.
“Free parking may not seem like a big deal to some, but … the parking, especially for people working at the facilities, can add up to hundreds of dollars,” the premier told a news conference at his campaign headquarters in Halifax.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.
