“Now we have lots of inflation, but the question is, can we get [inflation] back to 2% without disrupting the economy? I think we can,” he said.
Bullard’s optimism coincides with a rapid pace of interest rate increases by the Fed, intended to combat the highest U.S. inflation in 40 years.
Higher rates limit the ability of consumers and businesses to borrow and spend, which can cool growth and inflation. But they also carry the risk of tipping the economy into a downturn.
Consumer prices rose 8.6% in May compared with a year ago, and a government inflation report Wednesday could show that they’ve ticked higher.
Bullard also said he currently supports a 0.75 percentage point increase in the Fed’s benchmark short-term interest rate at its next meeting later this month. Its rate is currently in a range of 1.5% to 1.75%, after a 0.75 percentage point hike at its June meeting, the largest since 1994.
Separately, Esther George, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, sounded a more cautionary note in a speech Monday, in which she suggested the Fed’s large rate hikes could prove disruptive.
“I’m certainly sympathetic to the view that interest rates need to increase rapidly, recognizing that current rates are out of sync with today’s economic landscape,” she said, addressing a labour conference in Lake Ozark, Missouri. “However … policy changes transmit to the economy with a lag, and significant and abrupt changes can be unsettling to households and small businesses as they make necessary adjustments.”
George was the only Fed policymaker to dissent from the Fed’s June rate hike, out of concern that it was too large.
George noted after just four months of Fed rate hikes, “there is growing discussion of recession risk, and some forecasts are predicting interest rate cuts as soon as next year.” Those concerns suggest the Fed is lifting interest rates “more quickly than the economy and markets can adjust,” she added.
The Fed typically moves rates in quarter-point increments, but Chair Jerome Powell has said the Fed wants to move “expeditiously” to a level of about 2.5%, which would neither stimulate nor restrain growth.
On Friday, the government’s jobs report showed employers added 372,000 jobs, a healthy increase, while the unemployment rate remained at 3.6% for the fourth consecutive month, slightly above the five-decade low reached just before the pandemic.
The robust figures contrast with signs of a softening economy, from falling home sales to declining factory production to slower consumer spending. The economy contracted in the January-March quarter and real-time data trackers, such as one maintained by the Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank, suggest it did so again in the April-June quarter.
Two quarters of shrinking output would meet one rule of thumb for a recession. But the official definition of a recession, set by the National Bureau of Economic Research, looks at a much broader range of data to determine whether a downturn has occurred.
Bullard said that other measures of the economy, such as a broad measure of workers’ and businesses’ incomes, suggest the economy may have expanded in the first six months of this year. Businesses and other employers also added 2.7 million jobs during that time, a robust total that reflects an optimistic outlook among businesses.
“It just doesn’t seem like the U.S. economy has been in recession for the last two quarters,” Bullard said.
Bullard also disagreed that the economy needed several years of high unemployment to get inflation back under control, a view articulated several weeks ago by former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers.
Unlike the early 1980s, when sharp Fed interest rate increases pushed unemployment above 10%, the Fed has more credibility now as an inflation fighter, Bullard said. As a result, an inflationary psychology hasn’t taken hold of most consumers, as it did then, and the central bank won’t have to increase rates as much.
Other Fed officials have said that they support a three-quarters of a point increase in the Fed’s rate in July, including Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic.
“I’m fully supportive of moving 75 basis points,” Bostic said on financial network CNBC Friday, using financial terminology for a three-quarter point hike. “The tremendous momentum in the economy to me suggests” that the Fed could implement such an increase “and not see a lot of protracted damage to the broader economy.”
OTTAWA – Canada’s unemployment rate held steady at 6.5 per cent last month as hiring remained weak across the economy.
Statistics Canada’s labour force survey on Friday said employment rose by a modest 15,000 jobs in October.
Business, building and support services saw the largest gain in employment.
Meanwhile, finance, insurance, real estate, rental and leasing experienced the largest decline.
Many economists see weakness in the job market continuing in the short term, before the Bank of Canada’s interest rate cuts spark a rebound in economic growth next year.
Despite ongoing softness in the labour market, however, strong wage growth has raged on in Canada. Average hourly wages in October grew 4.9 per cent from a year ago, reaching $35.76.
Friday’s report also shed some light on the financial health of households.
According to the agency, 28.8 per cent of Canadians aged 15 or older were living in a household that had difficulty meeting financial needs – like food and housing – in the previous four weeks.
That was down from 33.1 per cent in October 2023 and 35.5 per cent in October 2022, but still above the 20.4 per cent figure recorded in October 2020.
People living in a rented home were more likely to report difficulty meeting financial needs, with nearly four in 10 reporting that was the case.
That compares with just under a quarter of those living in an owned home by a household member.
Immigrants were also more likely to report facing financial strain last month, with about four out of 10 immigrants who landed in the last year doing so.
That compares with about three in 10 more established immigrants and one in four of people born in Canada.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.
The Canadian Institute for Health Information says health-care spending in Canada is projected to reach a new high in 2024.
The annual report released Thursday says total health spending is expected to hit $372 billion, or $9,054 per Canadian.
CIHI’s national analysis predicts expenditures will rise by 5.7 per cent in 2024, compared to 4.5 per cent in 2023 and 1.7 per cent in 2022.
This year’s health spending is estimated to represent 12.4 per cent of Canada’s gross domestic product. Excluding two years of the pandemic, it would be the highest ratio in the country’s history.
While it’s not unusual for health expenditures to outpace economic growth, the report says this could be the case for the next several years due to Canada’s growing population and its aging demographic.
Canada’s per capita spending on health care in 2022 was among the highest in the world, but still less than countries such as the United States and Sweden.
The report notes that the Canadian dental and pharmacare plans could push health-care spending even further as more people who previously couldn’t afford these services start using them.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.
Canadian Press health coverage receives support through a partnership with the Canadian Medical Association. CP is solely responsible for this content.
As Canadians wake up to news that Donald Trump will return to the White House, the president-elect’s protectionist stance is casting a spotlight on what effect his second term will have on Canada-U.S. economic ties.
Some Canadian business leaders have expressed worry over Trump’s promise to introduce a universal 10 per cent tariff on all American imports.
A Canadian Chamber of Commerce report released last month suggested those tariffs would shrink the Canadian economy, resulting in around $30 billion per year in economic costs.
More than 77 per cent of Canadian exports go to the U.S.
Canada’s manufacturing sector faces the biggest risk should Trump push forward on imposing broad tariffs, said Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters president and CEO Dennis Darby. He said the sector is the “most trade-exposed” within Canada.
“It’s in the U.S.’s best interest, it’s in our best interest, but most importantly for consumers across North America, that we’re able to trade goods, materials, ingredients, as we have under the trade agreements,” Darby said in an interview.
“It’s a more complex or complicated outcome than it would have been with the Democrats, but we’ve had to deal with this before and we’re going to do our best to deal with it again.”
American economists have also warned Trump’s plan could cause inflation and possibly a recession, which could have ripple effects in Canada.
It’s consumers who will ultimately feel the burden of any inflationary effect caused by broad tariffs, said Darby.
“A tariff tends to raise costs, and it ultimately raises prices, so that’s something that we have to be prepared for,” he said.
“It could tilt production mandates. A tariff makes goods more expensive, but on the same token, it also will make inputs for the U.S. more expensive.”
A report last month by TD economist Marc Ercolao said research shows a full-scale implementation of Trump’s tariff plan could lead to a near-five per cent reduction in Canadian export volumes to the U.S. by early-2027, relative to current baseline forecasts.
Retaliation by Canada would also increase costs for domestic producers, and push import volumes lower in the process.
“Slowing import activity mitigates some of the negative net trade impact on total GDP enough to avoid a technical recession, but still produces a period of extended stagnation through 2025 and 2026,” Ercolao said.
Since the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement came into effect in 2020, trade between Canada and the U.S. has surged by 46 per cent, according to the Toronto Region Board of Trade.
With that deal is up for review in 2026, Canadian Chamber of Commerce president and CEO Candace Laing said the Canadian government “must collaborate effectively with the Trump administration to preserve and strengthen our bilateral economic partnership.”
“With an impressive $3.6 billion in daily trade, Canada and the United States are each other’s closest international partners. The secure and efficient flow of goods and people across our border … remains essential for the economies of both countries,” she said in a statement.
“By resisting tariffs and trade barriers that will only raise prices and hurt consumers in both countries, Canada and the United States can strengthen resilient cross-border supply chains that enhance our shared economic security.”
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.
