Fed's Powell gives hope to gold bulls in Q1 2022, watch the $1830 level - Pepperstone - Kitco NEWS | Canada News Media
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Fed's Powell gives hope to gold bulls in Q1 2022, watch the $1830 level – Pepperstone – Kitco NEWS

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(Kitco News) There is optimism in the gold space after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s nomination testimony triggered a price rally, according to Pepperstone.

The key level to watch now is the $1,830 an ounce, with gold bulls now hopeful of what the first quarter could bring for the precious metal.

Gold climbed to new daily highs as Powell testified before the U.S. Senate Committee on Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs. At the time of writing, February Comex gold futures were trading at $1,821.20, up 1.25% on the day.

Even though Powell sounded as hawkish as before, markets got a glimpse of how flexible the Fed is when tightening monetary policy going forward.

“While Powell didn’t really push back on market pricing around expected Fed rate hikes, we’ve certainly seen relief play out across markets,” said Pepperstone’s head of research Chris Weston. “It feels as though he confirmed this idea that when it comes to dealing with price pressures, the Fed have afforded themselves maximum flexibility and optionality to deal with changing dynamics, yet tried to remove a belief that they are stuck on a set path.”

Commodities, especially gold and oil, benefited from Powell’s comments as the U.S. dollar index declined — a major bullish sign for the yellow metal.

“The USD has been universally sold across the board – this has boosted the commodity trade, where notably crude is ripping and now eyeing the Nov highs of $86, and this is feeding full circle into solid moves for the petrocurrencies,” Weston noted. “A decent move lower in U.S. real rates amid USD weakness is typically a green light for gold bulls, and bid up the yellow metal … We eye the $1,830 swing here.”

Wednesday’s inflation data out of the U.S. will play a key role in determining what’s next for the U.S. dollar. Market consensus calls are projecting that the U.S. consumer price index will rise 7% on an annual basis in December.

“The question is, would a stronger downside reaction (in the USD) be seen on a miss to CPI than an upside move (in the USD) on a beat? I suspect the former, and it feels as if the street sees this risk distribution and looking for reasons to get short the USD,” Weston said.

The gold market has had many false starts this winter, but Weston sees some positive signs this time around. “I have been wholly impressed by the yellow to ride out the recent lift in bond yields, and that may be telling a story that the gold bulls may have a better time of it in Q1,” he said.



During his testimony, Powell was upbeat on the U.S. economy and employment while promising to bring inflation under control.

“This year, we see an economy where the labor market is recovering rapidly and inflation is well above 2%. This tells us is that the economy no longer needs or wants the highly accommodative policies we had in place to deal with the pandemic. But it is a long way to normal,” Powell said.

However, he also warned that a recession is possible if the Fed is forced to tighten too much. “If inflation does become too persistent, that will lead to much tighter monetary policy, and that could lead to a recession,” he said.

When talking about policy normalization, Powell stressed the importance of staying humble. “We are going to end asset purchases in March. We will raise rates. And at some point this year, we will start the balance sheet runoff,” he said. “The committee didn’t make any decision on the timing. We need to be humble about that. There are risks on both sides on growth and potentially inflation as well. Going to have to be attentive to what’s happening in the economy and willing to adapt as we go through the year.”

Powell also noted that reducing the Fed’s balance sheet could be faster and quicker this time around. “We will have the ability to move sooner and a little faster this time around. More clarity is coming soon on that. We will be discussing it at the January meeting.”

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Transat AT reports $39.9M Q3 loss compared with $57.3M profit a year earlier

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MONTREAL – Travel company Transat AT Inc. reported a loss in its latest quarter compared with a profit a year earlier as its revenue edged lower.

The parent company of Air Transat says it lost $39.9 million or $1.03 per diluted share in its quarter ended July 31.

The result compared with a profit of $57.3 million or $1.49 per diluted share a year earlier.

Revenue in what was the company’s third quarter totalled $736.2 million, down from $746.3 million in the same quarter last year.

On an adjusted basis, Transat says it lost $1.10 per share in its latest quarter compared with an adjusted profit of $1.10 per share a year earlier.

Transat chief executive Annick Guérard says demand for leisure travel remains healthy, as evidenced by higher traffic, but consumers are increasingly price conscious given the current economic uncertainty.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 12, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TRZ)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Dollarama keeping an eye on competitors as Loblaw launches new ultra-discount chain

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Dollarama Inc.’s food aisles may have expanded far beyond sweet treats or piles of gum by the checkout counter in recent years, but its chief executive maintains his company is “not in the grocery business,” even if it’s keeping an eye on the sector.

“It’s just one small part of our store,” Neil Rossy told analysts on a Wednesday call, where he was questioned about the company’s food merchandise and rivals playing in the same space.

“We will keep an eye on all retailers — like all retailers keep an eye on us — to make sure that we’re competitive and we understand what’s out there.”

Over the last decade and as consumers have more recently sought deals, Dollarama’s food merchandise has expanded to include bread and pantry staples like cereal, rice and pasta sold at prices on par or below supermarkets.

However, the competition in the discount segment of the market Dollarama operates in intensified recently when the country’s biggest grocery chain began piloting a new ultra-discount store.

The No Name stores being tested by Loblaw Cos. Ltd. in Windsor, St. Catharines and Brockville, Ont., are billed as 20 per cent cheaper than discount retail competitors including No Frills. The grocery giant is able to offer such cost savings by relying on a smaller store footprint, fewer chilled products and a hearty range of No Name merchandise.

Though Rossy brushed off notions that his company is a supermarket challenger, grocers aren’t off his radar.

“All retailers in Canada are realistic about the fact that everyone is everyone’s competition on any given item or category,” he said.

Rossy declined to reveal how much of the chain’s sales would overlap with Loblaw or the food category, arguing the vast variety of items Dollarama sells is its strength rather than its grocery products alone.

“What makes Dollarama Dollarama is a very wide assortment of different departments that somewhat represent the old five-and-dime local convenience store,” he said.

The breadth of Dollarama’s offerings helped carry the company to a second-quarter profit of $285.9 million, up from $245.8 million in the same quarter last year as its sales rose 7.4 per cent.

The retailer said Wednesday the profit amounted to $1.02 per diluted share for the 13-week period ended July 28, up from 86 cents per diluted share a year earlier.

The period the quarter covers includes the start of summer, when Rossy said the weather was “terrible.”

“The weather got slightly better towards the end of the summer and our sales certainly increased, but not enough to make up for the season’s horrible start,” he said.

Sales totalled $1.56 billion for the quarter, up from $1.46 billion in the same quarter last year.

Comparable store sales, a key metric for retailers, increased 4.7 per cent, while the average transaction was down2.2 per cent and traffic was up seven per cent, RBC analyst Irene Nattel pointed out.

She told investors in a note that the numbers reflect “solid demand as cautious consumers focus on core consumables and everyday essentials.”

Analysts have attributed such behaviour to interest rates that have been slow to drop and high prices of key consumer goods, which are weighing on household budgets.

To cope, many Canadians have spent more time seeking deals, trading down to more affordable brands and forgoing small luxuries they would treat themselves to in better economic times.

“When people feel squeezed, they tend to shy away from discretionary, focus on the basics,” Rossy said. “When people are feeling good about their wallet, they tend to be more lax about the basics and more willing to spend on discretionary.”

The current economic situation has drawn in not just the average Canadian looking to save a buck or two, but also wealthier consumers.

“When the entire economy is feeling slightly squeezed, we get more consumers who might not have to or want to shop at a Dollarama generally or who enjoy shopping at a Dollarama but have the luxury of not having to worry about the price in some other store that they happen to be standing in that has those goods,” Rossy said.

“Well, when times are tougher, they’ll consider the extra five minutes to go to the store next door.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 11, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:DOL)

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U.S. regulator fines TD Bank US$28M for faulty consumer reports

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TORONTO – The U.S. Consumer Financial Protection Bureau has ordered TD Bank Group to pay US$28 million for repeatedly sharing inaccurate, negative information about its customers to consumer reporting companies.

The agency says TD has to pay US$7.76 million in total to tens of thousands of victims of its illegal actions, along with a US$20 million civil penalty.

It says TD shared information that contained systemic errors about credit card and bank deposit accounts to consumer reporting companies, which can include credit reports as well as screening reports for tenants and employees and other background checks.

CFPB director Rohit Chopra says in a statement that TD threatened the consumer reports of customers with fraudulent information then “barely lifted a finger to fix it,” and that regulators will need to “focus major attention” on TD Bank to change its course.

TD says in a statement it self-identified these issues and proactively worked to improve its practices, and that it is committed to delivering on its responsibilities to its customers.

The bank also faces scrutiny in the U.S. over its anti-money laundering program where it expects to pay more than US$3 billion in monetary penalties to resolve.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 11, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TD)

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