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Canadians’ outlook for the economy deteriorated in February, as a greater number of households showed signs of worry about the state of their savings, according to that latest version of an ongoing tracking poll.
Household outlook index sinks back to record low
Canadians’ outlook for the economy deteriorated in February, as a greater number of households showed signs of worry about the state of their savings, according to that latest version of an ongoing tracking poll.
The Maru Household Outlook Index dropped to 85 last month, matching the lowest reading since global research firm Maru Group started keeping track in 2021. The index was 87 in January and 88 in December. The index pretty much has been on a downward slide since July 2021, when it printed its most optimistic result of 107.
The baseline for the index is 100. A score below 100 indicates negative sentiment, while a score above 100 is considered positive. Maru comes up with its household index by asking a panel of about 1,500 people a series of questions about the economy’s prospects over the next 60 days.
“The key thing is that people are concerned about the amount of savings they have. That’s what’s underlying all the main pieces here,” said John Wright, executive vice-president of Maru Public Opinion. “It doesn’t look like they have a lot on hand.”
Wright conducted the survey from Feb. 24 to 27. Some 62 per cent of respondents said they thought they had enough money on hand to cover an unexpected expense over the next two months, down from 65 per cent in January. The February result matched that of October 2022, the last time the index was this low. Regionally, the lowest levels of available savings were recorded in Alberta and Manitoba/Saskatchewan where 48 per cent and 46 per cent, respectively, estimated they had enough to cover a surprise expense. By age, 47 per cent of Canadians 18-34 and 45 per cent of middle-aged participants had enough savings, meanwhile, among women, it was 38 per cent.
The key thing is that people are concerned about the amount of savings they have
John Wright, executive vice-president, Maru Public Opinion
Fewer households indicated that they felt their investments and savings would be enough to sustain them in the future; 55 per cent of respondents answered affirmatively, down from 59 per cent in January. February’s result was the second-lowest reading after March 2022’s 54 per cent.
Negative sentiment far outstripped any positive feelings survey participants could muster regarding the economy and their personal financial situation.
A growing number of Canadians — 66 per cent compared with 64 per cent in January — said they believed the economy was on the “wrong track.” The only other time Canadians held a more pessimistic view of the economy was in October 2022 when 70 per cent said the economy was headed in the wrong direction.
The last time a majority of Canadians believed the economy was moving in the right direction was in November 2022.
Also, a declining number of Canadians — 31 per cent compared with 35 per cent January — said they thought now was a good time to invest in the stock market with the former result matching similar views held in October 2022.
On the positive side, fewer Canadians said they were worried about losing their jobs. Eleven per cent indicated they feared that outcome over the next 60 days, compared with 15 per cent in January. Those indicating losing their job was very likely fell to three per cent from five per cent. The last time results were similar was in September 2022.
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Your Saturday UK Briefing: Brighter Days Ahead for Economy, Sunak Bloomberg
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(Bloomberg) — The Federal Reserve, Bank of England and Swiss National Bank all proceeded with expected interest-rate increases this week, reinforcing their commitments to curb inflation despite turmoil in the banking sector.
Policymakers in the US and UK hiked by a quarter point while those in Switzerland opted for a half point. All three signaled more increases could be in store.
The UK was especially under pressure to tighten policy after a report earlier in the week showed consumer prices advanced 10.4% in February, surpassing all estimates in a Bloomberg survey and bucking economists’ expectation of a slowdown.
Here are some of the charts that appeared on Bloomberg this week on the latest developments in the global economy:
World
Iceland’s central bank extended western Europe’s longest policy-tightening campaign with a full percentage-point increase, while the Philippine central bank shifted to a smaller hike. Norway, Taiwan and Nigeria also kept hiking. Officials in Turkey left rates unchanged, as did those in Brazil despite pressure from the government for looser policy.
The rush of layoffs that began late last year isn’t letting up, marking the worst start to a year since 2009, with nearly 52,000 jobs lost in one week in January alone. Since Oct. 1, executives across sectors have sacked almost half a million employees around the world, according to a comprehensive review of layoffs by Bloomberg News.
US
History remembers Paul Volcker as the slayer of inflation, and Ben Bernanke as the crisis firefighter. Jerome Powell is in danger of having to play both roles at once — or, what may be worse, to choose between them.
Powell and his colleagues are expecting a sharp dropoff in economic activity through the rest of 2023 — at least, that’s the implication from new economic projections they published this week.
Rent increases for US single-family homes eased for a ninth straight month in January, pushing the annual rate to the lowest since the spring of 2021, according to CoreLogic. All 20 major metro areas tracked by CoreLogic posted single-digit annual rent increases, for the first time since late 2020.
Europe
UK inflation accelerated unexpectedly in February for the first time in four months, keeping the BOE on course to raise interest rates. Food and non-alcoholic drink prices soared 18%, the fastest pace in 45 years, while core and services inflation also picked up.
Euro-zone economic growth continued to pick up in March, driven exclusively by the service sector as concerns over energy supplies recede. The overall rate of expansion rose to the highest level in 10 months, according to business surveys by S&P Global.
Asia
China’s population is emerging from a massive virus wave unleashed by the rapid reversal of Covid Zero in mid-December. People are planning trips, dining out and returning to shopping malls. Still, residents of the world’s second-biggest economy aren’t splashing out like they used to.
South Korea’s early trade data showed a deepening slump in exports as global demand for semiconductors remains weak and China’s reopening is yet to generate any boost.
Singapore’s core inflation, a key barometer for the central bank, kept its 14-year-high pace in February as officials weigh fresh threats to the global economy amid the Federal Reserve’s resolve to stay the course on tightening.
Emerging Markets
Sri Lanka clinched a $3 billion bailout loan from the International Monetary Fund after six months of negotiations. Now comes the harder part: getting a debt restructuring agreement and seeing through monetary policy and tax reforms.
—With assistance from Mathieu Benhamou, Ruchi Bhatia, Matthew Boesler, Libby Cherry, Jo Constantz, Jennah Haque, Jinshan Hong, Michelle Jamrisko, Sam Kim, Phil Kuntz, Karen Leigh, Rich Miller, Tom Rees, Zoe Schneeweiss, Naomi Tajitsu, Alex Tanzi, Kevin Varley, Alexander Weber and Karl Lester M. Yap.
(Bloomberg) — Euro-zone economic growth continued to pick up in March, driven exclusively by the service sector as concerns over energy supplies recede.
The overall rate of expansion rose to the highest level in 10 months, according to business surveys by S&P Global. Manufacturing output broadly stagnated, however, only supported by a backlog of orders as demand continued to fall.
“Growth has been buoyed since the lows of late last year as recession fears and energy market worries fade, inflation pressures ease and the unprecedented supply chain delays seen during the pandemic are replaced with record improvements to supplier delivery times,” said Chris Williamson, an economist at S&P Global.
Sentiment in Europe has been improving as it became clear that the region would avoid worst-case scenarios for access to natural gas predicted after Russia cut off supplies to the bloc. Recent turmoil in the banking sector has cast some doubt on how the global economy will develop, though European officials have sounded confident that the sector can withstand any fallout.
While activity improved in both Germany and France, the strongest performance came in the rest of the 20-nation euro area.
What Bloomberg Economic Says…
“The euro-area composite PMI survey for March suggests the economy is beginning to emerge from a period of stagnation and holding up well under the weight of higher interest rates. While monetary policy works with long and variable lags and choppy waters may still lie ahead, the resilience of the economy should allow the hawks at the European Central Bank to succeed in pushing for more interest rate increases”
—David Powell, economist. For full analysis, click here
Inflation is still running far above the European Central Bank’s 2% target, however, with underlying data becoming the key focus for policymakers. While price gains continued to moderate in March, they remain elevated by historical standards, according to S&P Global.
“Such stubborn inflationary pressures, fueled primarily by the service sector and rising wage costs, will be a concern to policymakers and suggests that more work may be needed in terms of bringing inflation down to target,” Williamson said.
The jobs market also remained resilient. Employment growth reached a nine-month high, with acceleration seen especially in services in line with rising demand.
Firms’ confidence in the business outlook dipped, though it remained well above levels seen in late 2022. That could be linked to concerns over uncertainty caused by banking-sector stress and the impact of further increases in interest rates, S&P Global said.
The composite PMI reading for the UK edged lower to 52.2 in March from 53.1 the previous month, suggesting the economy has avoided a recession for now. British companies are the most confident they’ve been since the start of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Data earlier revealed activity in Japan’s services sector edged up to the strongest in almost a decade as the return of Chinese tourists boosted demand. The US number due later on Friday is expected to be below 50.
—With assistance from Mark Evans, Joel Rinneby, Tom Rees and Zoe Schneeweiss.
(Updates with UK PMI data in 10th paragraph.)
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