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Fewer Canadians have emergency savings on hand, driving down economic sentiment: poll – Financial Post

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Household outlook index sinks back to record low

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Canadians’ outlook for the economy deteriorated in February, as a greater number of households showed signs of worry about the state of their savings, according to that latest version of an ongoing tracking poll.

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The Maru Household Outlook Index dropped to 85 last month, matching the lowest reading since global research firm Maru Group started keeping track in 2021. The index was 87 in January and 88 in December. The index pretty much has been on a downward slide since July 2021, when it printed its most optimistic result of 107.

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The baseline for the index is 100. A score below 100 indicates negative sentiment, while a score above 100 is considered positive. Maru comes up with its household index by asking a panel of about 1,500 people a series of questions about the economy’s prospects over the next 60 days.

“The key thing is that people are concerned about the amount of savings they have. That’s what’s underlying all the main pieces here,” said John Wright, executive vice-president of Maru Public Opinion. “It doesn’t look like they have a lot on hand.”

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Wright conducted the survey from Feb. 24 to 27. Some 62 per cent of respondents said they thought they had enough money on hand to cover an unexpected expense over the next two months, down from 65 per cent in January. The February result matched that of October 2022, the last time the index was this low. Regionally, the lowest levels of available savings were recorded in Alberta and Manitoba/Saskatchewan where 48 per cent and 46 per cent, respectively, estimated they had enough to cover a surprise expense. By age, 47 per cent of Canadians 18-34 and 45 per cent of middle-aged participants had enough savings, meanwhile, among women, it was 38 per cent.

The key thing is that people are concerned about the amount of savings they have

John Wright, executive vice-president, Maru Public Opinion

Fewer households indicated that they felt their investments and savings would be enough to sustain them in the future; 55 per cent of respondents answered affirmatively, down from 59 per cent in January. February’s result was the second-lowest reading after March 2022’s 54 per cent.

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Negative sentiment far outstripped any positive feelings survey participants could muster regarding the economy and their personal financial situation.

A growing number of Canadians — 66 per cent compared with 64 per cent in January — said they believed the economy was on the “wrong track.” The only other time Canadians held a more pessimistic view of the economy was in October 2022 when 70 per cent said the economy was headed in the wrong direction.

The last time a majority of Canadians believed the economy was moving in the right direction was in November 2022.


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Also, a declining number of Canadians — 31 per cent compared with 35 per cent January — said they thought now was a good time to invest in the stock market with the former result matching similar views held in October 2022.

On the positive side, fewer Canadians said they were worried about losing their jobs. Eleven per cent indicated they feared that outcome over the next 60 days, compared with 15 per cent in January. Those indicating losing their job was very likely fell to three per cent from five per cent. The last time results were similar was in September 2022.

• Email: gmvsuhanic@postmedia.com | Twitter:

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Economy

Federal money and sales taxes help pump up New Brunswick budget surplus

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FREDERICTON – New Brunswick‘s finance minister says the province recorded a surplus of $500.8 million for the fiscal year that ended in March.

Ernie Steeves says the amount — more than 10 times higher than the province’s original $40.3-million budget projection for the 2023-24 fiscal year — was largely the result of a strong economy and population growth.

The report of a big surplus comes as the province prepares for an election campaign, which will officially start on Thursday and end with a vote on Oct. 21.

Steeves says growth of the surplus was fed by revenue from the Harmonized Sales Tax and federal money, especially for health-care funding.

Progressive Conservative Premier Blaine Higgs has promised to reduce the HST by two percentage points to 13 per cent if the party is elected to govern next month.

Meanwhile, the province’s net debt, according to the audited consolidated financial statements, has dropped from $12.3 billion in 2022-23 to $11.8 billion in the most recent fiscal year.

Liberal critic René Legacy says having a stronger balance sheet does not eliminate issues in health care, housing and education.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 16, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Economy

Liberals announce expansion to mortgage eligibility, draft rights for renters, buyers

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OTTAWA – Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland says the government is making some changes to mortgage rules to help more Canadians to purchase their first home.

She says the changes will come into force in December and better reflect the housing market.

The price cap for insured mortgages will be boosted for the first time since 2012, moving to $1.5 million from $1 million, to allow more people to qualify for a mortgage with less than a 20 per cent down payment.

The government will also expand its 30-year mortgage amortization to include first-time homebuyers buying any type of home, as well as anybody buying a newly built home.

On Aug. 1 eligibility for the 30-year amortization was changed to include first-time buyers purchasing a newly-built home.

Justice Minister Arif Virani is also releasing drafts for a bill of rights for renters as well as one for homebuyers, both of which the government promised five months ago.

Virani says the government intends to work with provinces to prevent practices like renovictions, where landowners evict tenants and make minimal renovations and then seek higher rents.

The government touts today’s announced measures as the “boldest mortgage reforms in decades,” and it comes after a year of criticism over high housing costs.

The Liberals have been slumping in the polls for months, including among younger adults who say not being able to afford a house is one of their key concerns.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 16, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Economy

Statistics Canada says manufacturing sales up 1.4% in July at $71B

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OTTAWA – Statistics Canada says manufacturing sales rose 1.4 per cent to $71 billion in July, helped by higher sales in the petroleum and coal and chemical product subsectors.

The increase followed a 1.7 per cent decrease in June.

The agency says sales in the petroleum and coal product subsector gained 6.7 per cent to total $8.6 billion in July as most refineries sold more, helped by higher prices and demand.

Chemical product sales rose 5.3 per cent to $5.6 billion in July, boosted by increased sales of pharmaceutical and medicine products.

Sales of wood products fell 4.8 per cent for the month to $2.9 billion, the lowest level since May 2023.

In constant dollar terms, overall manufacturing sales rose 0.9 per cent in July.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 16, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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