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Five must-read stories on Canadian real estate – The Globe and Mail

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Rob is taking a much-deserved break this week. While he’s away, we’ve collected some of the top real estate stories by our investing and personal finance writers. Always a popular topic with our readers, we’ve seen growing interest as the housing market adjusts to rising rates and recessionary fears. – James Cowan, Investing Editor


Canada’s housing market could crash or soar, but there’s a more likely third option that nobody is talking about

“The most important force to watch is interest rates. The near-zero rates that have helped fuel the massive run-up in Canadian home prices over the past two years are finally on the verge of turning higher. If the Bank of Canada tightens policy as expected, today’s red-hot real estate prices could soon face the cooling impact of higher borrowing costs.

Everyone can spin a scenario about how this clash of forces will turn out. But one possibility that gets surprisingly little attention is the prospect that the market could do something it hasn’t done for a long time – sit still.”

Five signs Canada’s housing market is completely bonkers

“For more than a decade, the most pointless exercise in personal finance has been questioning the rise of house prices. In that time, we’ve had a global financial crisis and two years of a pandemic. Housing ate it all up.

We began 2022 with a new all-time high for average resale house prices that was built on double-digit increases from year-earlier levels. Does this extreme growth make sense?”

How far do housing prices need to fall before the Bank of Canada stops raising interest rates?

“The key, though, is what central bankers deem to be the greater danger – a potential recession or the risk that inflation could become embedded in the economy.

If the past year has taught us anything, it is that central bankers are struggling to stay ahead of inflation. In both Canada and the U.S., prices are rising at their fastest clip in decades.”

Here’s the income you need to afford rent in major Canadian cities

“With the average home price in Canada hitting a record $748,450 in January, Canadians in many parts of the country may find the math of buying versus renting makes for a compelling argument in favour of renting. But another part of the renting equation is likely stumping a growing share of tenants: the comparison between market rents and their own incomes.

In many major cities and even some smaller centres across the country, Canadians would need to make at least $70,000 to afford the average asking rent on a one-bedroom apartment without spending more than 30 per cent or more of their before-tax income on shelter costs, a Globe and Mail analysis found.”

‘It’s a dog-eat-dog world’ as Canada’s housing cool-down helps ignite rental market wars

“The average asking rate on vacant units available on Rentals.ca, a rental listings site, reached $1,888 a month in May. That was up more than 10 per cent from a year ago and nearly 4 per cent from April, the steepest monthly increase since May, 2019, according to a monthly analysis of Rentals.ca listings compiled by Bullpen Research & Consulting Inc.

In Vancouver, which topped the Rentals.ca ranking of most expensive rental markets, the going rate for a two-bedroom unit in June is $3,495, up 24 per cent from the same month last year. In Toronto, renting a two-bedroom unit now costs around $3,000 a month, up more than 21 per cent from a year ago.”


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Greater Toronto home sales jump in October after Bank of Canada rate cuts: board

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TORONTO – The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board says home sales in October surged as buyers continued moving off the sidelines amid lower interest rates.

The board said 6,658 homes changed hands last month in the Greater Toronto Area, up 44.4 per cent compared with 4,611 in the same month last year. Sales were up 14 per cent from September on a seasonally adjusted basis.

The average selling price was up 1.1 per cent compared with a year earlier at $1,135,215. The composite benchmark price, meant to represent the typical home, was down 3.3 per cent year-over-year.

“While we are still early in the Bank of Canada’s rate cutting cycle, it definitely does appear that an increasing number of buyers moved off the sidelines and back into the marketplace in October,” said TRREB president Jennifer Pearce in a news release.

“The positive affordability picture brought about by lower borrowing costs and relatively flat home prices prompted this improvement in market activity.”

The Bank of Canada has slashed its key interest rate four times since June, including a half-percentage point cut on Oct. 23. The rate now stands at 3.75 per cent, down from the high of five per cent that deterred many would-be buyers from the housing market.

New listings last month totalled 15,328, up 4.3 per cent from a year earlier.

In the City of Toronto, there were 2,509 sales last month, a 37.6 per cent jump from October 2023. Throughout the rest of the GTA, home sales rose 48.9 per cent to 4,149.

The sales uptick is encouraging, said Cameron Forbes, general manager and broker for Re/Max Realtron Realty Inc., who added the figures for October were stronger than he anticipated.

“I thought they’d be up for sure, but not necessarily that much,” said Forbes.

“Obviously, the 50 basis points was certainly a great move in the right direction. I just thought it would take more to get things going.”

He said it shows confidence in the market is returning faster than expected, especially among existing homeowners looking for a new property.

“The average consumer who’s employed and may have been able to get some increases in their wages over the last little bit to make up some ground with inflation, I think they’re confident, so they’re looking in the market.

“The conditions are nice because you’ve got a little more time, you’ve got more choice, you’ve got fewer other buyers to compete against.”

All property types saw more sales in October compared with a year ago throughout the GTA.

Townhouses led the surge with 56.8 per cent more sales, followed by detached homes at 46.6 per cent and semi-detached homes at 44 per cent. There were 33.4 per cent more condos that changed hands year-over-year.

“Market conditions did tighten in October, but there is still a lot of inventory and therefore choice for homebuyers,” said TRREB chief market analyst Jason Mercer.

“This choice will keep home price growth moderate over the next few months. However, as inventory is absorbed and home construction continues to lag population growth, selling price growth will accelerate, likely as we move through the spring of 2025.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Homelessness: Tiny home village to open next week in Halifax suburb

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HALIFAX – A village of tiny homes is set to open next month in a Halifax suburb, the latest project by the provincial government to address homelessness.

Located in Lower Sackville, N.S., the tiny home community will house up to 34 people when the first 26 units open Nov. 4.

Another 35 people are scheduled to move in when construction on another 29 units should be complete in December, under a partnership between the province, the Halifax Regional Municipality, United Way Halifax, The Shaw Group and Dexter Construction.

The province invested $9.4 million to build the village and will contribute $935,000 annually for operating costs.

Residents have been chosen from a list of people experiencing homelessness maintained by the Affordable Housing Association of Nova Scotia.

They will pay rent that is tied to their income for a unit that is fully furnished with a private bathroom, shower and a kitchen equipped with a cooktop, small fridge and microwave.

The Atlantic Community Shelters Society will also provide support to residents, ranging from counselling and mental health supports to employment and educational services.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 24, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Here are some facts about British Columbia’s housing market

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Housing affordability is a key issue in the provincial election campaign in British Columbia, particularly in major centres.

Here are some statistics about housing in B.C. from the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation’s 2024 Rental Market Report, issued in January, and the B.C. Real Estate Association’s August 2024 report.

Average residential home price in B.C.: $938,500

Average price in greater Vancouver (2024 year to date): $1,304,438

Average price in greater Victoria (2024 year to date): $979,103

Average price in the Okanagan (2024 year to date): $748,015

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Vancouver: $2,181

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Victoria: $1,839

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Canada: $1,359

Rental vacancy rate in Vancouver: 0.9 per cent

How much more do new renters in Vancouver pay compared with renters who have occupied their home for at least a year: 27 per cent

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 17, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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