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Several friends in the past month have, for one reason or another, asked me to describe my working day to them. I also used to get this question a lot during my time as a mutual fund manager.
Peter Hodson: If you are not paying attention — always — you are going to miss something
Several friends in the past month have, for one reason or another, asked me to describe my working day to them. I also used to get this question a lot during my time as a mutual fund manager.
The investment business is really a 24/7, 365-days-a-year affair. Managers are always thinking about stocks, the economy, world events, even when they are not at the office. Everything impacts the markets. If you are not paying attention — always — you are going to miss something.
But in case anyone else is wondering how an investment professional spends their “working hours,” here’s a breakdown into five categories.
I wake up when a three is the first number on the clock. Part of the early wake-up call is a habit from my old competitive swimming days, but it is now work-related. Simply put, with access to information much easier for every investor these days, an early start is one of the only advantages an investor can get.
Company news — takeovers, acquisitions, contracts — typically comes out in the mornings. Having more time to analyze this news, rather than just reacting to it 30 minutes before markets open, can give you an edge. For example, suppose a company announces a takeover and that it is accretive to earnings. With enough time, you can run your own financial models, rather than just taking a company’s word for it. Advantage: early bird.
Not all news, of course, comes out in the morning. Earnings releases tend to be before or after market, but companies can issue press releases anytime, and there are always virtual conferences and conference calls to attend. The United States Federal Reserve might make an announcement, or the Bank of Canada. The past 18 months has also required investors to become COVID-19 experts, watching virus and vaccine news like a hawk. Basically, any piece of news can move markets.
Sometimes, news you think isn’t so important gets picked up by a larger crowd, and stocks and markets can move erratically. There are rumours and facts to listen to and then decide if they are important. My Bloomberg screen can put out hundreds of press releases a minute. One could spend an entire day just reading these headlines, so quick decisions and time management often become crucial habits.
If I have learned one thing In my career, it is that company executives can lie, sometimes outright. At best, they are expert salespeople. At worst, they can be corrupt fraud artists. I have learned to not really rely on them. Numbers, on the other hand, particularly cash flow, are a lot harder to manipulate, so running data screens is a major part of my day.
I screen for all sorts of things, but start with the new highs from the day before. This gives me some new ideas to investigate, as I need to see what all the fuss is about. But screens can be done on pretty much anything, and I like to look at return on equity, sales growth, earnings revisions and dividend increases, amongst other data points. With 10,000 stocks in North America, screens at least keep the potential investment universe manageable.
Meeting with company executives is still important, but not for the reason many think. Generally, because corporate executives need to disclose all information to all investors, you are not going to get any juicy new information from repeated or one-on-one meetings. But it is important to meet a management team in order to get a feel for the company’s approach and long-term goals, and specifically whether you can trust them.
Managers and investors don’t need to meet with executives every quarter. Let them run the business. Many company executives, and fund managers, too, have decided these meetings are a bit of a waste of time, and prefer to let the numbers do the talking (see the prior point). I’ve been to thousands of meetings in my career, but I took fewer and fewer meetings as my career progressed, and had more time for real research rather than listening to a sales pitch. One caveat: I do like talking to the competition of a company I am researching. Competitors will tell you the flaws of the other company. Management won’t.
One needs customers, so whether you’re a portfolio manager, analyst or someone helping do-it-yourself investors, part of any investment professional’s day is spent marketing. Current customers always have issues, enquiries need to be answered and there are always new customers to win over.
More than half of my day as a portfolio manager during the financial crisis in 2008 was spent calming investors down, whereas I would have preferred to be spending that time trying to manage an imploding investment world. But it is a necessary task. If my customers all leave, there isn’t much point focusing on the other four points above now, is there?
Financial Post
Peter Hodson, CFA, is founder and head of Research at 5i Research Inc., an independent investment research network helping do-it-yourself investors reach their investment goals. He is also associate portfolio manager for the i2i Long/Short U.S. Equity Fund. (5i Research staff do not own Canadian stocks. i2i Long/Short Fund may own non-Canadian stocks mentioned.)
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NEW YORK (AP) — Shares of Tesla soared Wednesday as investors bet that the electric vehicle maker and its CEO Elon Musk will benefit from Donald Trump’s return to the White House.
Tesla stands to make significant gains under a Trump administration with the threat of diminished subsidies for alternative energy and electric vehicles doing the most harm to smaller competitors. Trump’s plans for extensive tariffs on Chinese imports make it less likely that Chinese EVs will be sold in bulk in the U.S. anytime soon.
“Tesla has the scale and scope that is unmatched,” said Wedbush analyst Dan Ives, in a note to investors. “This dynamic could give Musk and Tesla a clear competitive advantage in a non-EV subsidy environment, coupled by likely higher China tariffs that would continue to push away cheaper Chinese EV players.”
Tesla shares jumped 14.8% Wednesday while shares of rival electric vehicle makers tumbled. Nio, based in Shanghai, fell 5.3%. Shares of electric truck maker Rivian dropped 8.3% and Lucid Group fell 5.3%.
Tesla dominates sales of electric vehicles in the U.S, with 48.9% in market share through the middle of 2024, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.
Subsidies for clean energy are part of the Inflation Reduction Act, signed into law by President Joe Biden in 2022. It included tax credits for manufacturing, along with tax credits for consumers of electric vehicles.
Musk was one of Trump’s biggest donors, spending at least $119 million mobilizing Trump’s supporters to back the Republican nominee. He also pledged to give away $1 million a day to voters signing a petition for his political action committee.
In some ways, it has been a rocky year for Tesla, with sales and profit declining through the first half of the year. Profit did rise 17.3% in the third quarter.
The U.S. opened an investigation into the company’s “Full Self-Driving” system after reports of crashes in low-visibility conditions, including one that killed a pedestrian. The investigation covers roughly 2.4 million Teslas from the 2016 through 2024 model years.
And investors sent company shares tumbling last month after Tesla unveiled its long-awaited robotaxi at a Hollywood studio Thursday night, seeing not much progress at Tesla on autonomous vehicles while other companies have been making notable progress.
Tesla began selling the software, which is called “Full Self-Driving,” nine years ago. But there are doubts about its reliability.
The stock is now showing a 16.1% gain for the year after rising the past two days.
The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.
TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index was up more than 100 points in late-morning trading, helped by strength in base metal and utility stocks, while U.S. stock markets were mixed.
The S&P/TSX composite index was up 103.40 points at 24,542.48.
In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 192.31 points at 42,932.73. The S&P 500 index was up 7.14 points at 5,822.40, while the Nasdaq composite was down 9.03 points at 18,306.56.
The Canadian dollar traded for 72.61 cents US compared with 72.44 cents US on Tuesday.
The November crude oil contract was down 71 cents at US$69.87 per barrel and the November natural gas contract was down eight cents at US$2.42 per mmBTU.
The December gold contract was up US$7.20 at US$2,686.10 an ounce and the December copper contract was up a penny at US$4.35 a pound.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 16, 2024.
Companies in this story: (TSX:GSPTSE, TSX:CADUSD)
The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.
TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index was up more than 200 points in late-morning trading, while U.S. stock markets were also headed higher.
The S&P/TSX composite index was up 205.86 points at 24,508.12.
In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 336.62 points at 42,790.74. The S&P 500 index was up 34.19 points at 5,814.24, while the Nasdaq composite was up 60.27 points at 18.342.32.
The Canadian dollar traded for 72.61 cents US compared with 72.71 cents US on Thursday.
The November crude oil contract was down 15 cents at US$75.70 per barrel and the November natural gas contract was down two cents at US$2.65 per mmBTU.
The December gold contract was down US$29.60 at US$2,668.90 an ounce and the December copper contract was up four cents at US$4.47 a pound.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 11, 2024.
Companies in this story: (TSX:GSPTSE, TSX:CADUSD)
The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.
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