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Five things to watch in Japanese politics in 2021

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2020 was a year full of things no one predicted for Japan: a global pandemic, a postponed Tokyo Olympics and a prime ministerial resignation, to name a few. While many will be sighing in relief at the prospect of a new year, the roller coaster ride for Japanese politics is not over. 2021 will still be a year to watch as we could yet again see a change in administration.

Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga’s power atop the government is not assured, and with some significant elections scheduled, domestic politics could once again shake things up at the top. That of course has important and far-reaching implications both for Japan and its partners — so it will be important to observe a few things in particular this coming year.

The COVID-19 effect

This past week, Japan recorded its highest yet numbers of COVID-19 cases. The uptick in numbers has been dramatic, as has the drop in Suga’s approval ratings these past few months. When Suga took office, he enjoyed a 62 percent approval rating, but that number has dropped twenty points in just three months. The public backlash prompted Suga to suspend the Go To Travel campaign ahead of new year festivities; but even this move is receiving criticism. Some say that his decision came too late, while others are decrying his choice to hurt small businesses ahead of an important travel season for the country.

The Go To Travel debacle reveals a Catch-22 situation for the Suga administration in its COVID policies. If the administration takes drastic action by trying to lock down areas, restrict public gatherings, suspend in-office work and discourage free movement, it will cause a drop in approval ratings unless there is a phenomenal and sustained improvement in Japan’s COVID numbers. Conversely, if Suga takes a relaxed approach focused on jump-starting the economy but COVID numbers increase, it will cause a drop in approval ratings.

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Thus, the most likely outcome now is that Suga will try to take a middle-of-the-road approach between those two options in hopes that a vaccine will bail him out from having to take decisive action one way or the other. This approach is not unlike many of Suga’s prime ministerial predecessors, but indecisive and ineffective prime ministers do not tend to last long, especially during troubled times.

The Olympics effect

Right now, the Suga administration is dead set on holding the Olympics this coming summer. The problem is, if Japan cannot get the pandemic under control, it will put Suga in yet another Catch-22 situation.

If the Suga administration permits foreign travelers to come into Japan and there is a major spike in COVID cases, he will pay for it in the polls. If the Suga administration restricts the number of foreign travelers allowed to enter the country (or imposes such draconian rules that it makes it impractical to travel to Japan), then it will affect the revenue that the Olympics are supposed to generate and contribute to a subpar event on the world stage. That will also cause a negative impact on his polling.

Suga’s only respite in this situation will come if external factors save the day. Perhaps a vaccine will be widely available by then, giving Suga the opportunity to shift blame to pharmaceuticals rather than policies if COVID numbers still spike. Maybe members of the international community will begin pulling out of the Olympics, which would alleviate Suga of the responsibility if the games fail to live up to the lofty expectations that existed prior to this year. Either way, the challenges of holding a postponed Olympics are great, and Suga will have to navigate them this coming year.

LDP presidential race

One might wonder why this article places so much emphasis on polling numbers: That is because Suga is facing two major elections in 2021. The first worth mentioning is the Liberal Democratic Party Presidential race that will take place no later than the end of September 2021.

Suga won the last party presidential election because he was the LDP faction heads’ favorite candidate not named Shigeru Ishiba. The party changed the rules of the election to handicap Ishiba in the race, effectively installing Suga as a compromise until they could work out who else may be their preferred pick for the job. How can we know that LDP heavyweights already had an eye on the next potential candidate? Well, what is normally a three-year term that comes with winning the party presidential race was reduced to one year for this exceptional case.

Observers of Japanese politics must keep in mind that Suga will have important choices to make related to managing intraparty politics if he hopes to survive in the post past next Autumn.

The Lower House election

The term for the House of Representatives, or Lower House, is set to expire in October 2021. As such, the ruling LDP-Komeito coalition has the option of waiting it out until the expiration of the term to convene a general election, or the prime minister can dissolve the Lower House early and call for a snap election.

The ruling LDP-Komeito coalition will seek timing for an election that can guarantee the best outcomes for themselves, but the available windows are limited. At this point, they could look to call for a snap election after the budget is passed — usually around March — meaning an April election. They may seek to hold the election before the Olympics, targeting late June. The final option is to align the Lower House election with the LDP presidential race, either in late September or October 2021.

Each window comes with its own set of challenges. The COVID effect will likely still impact a springtime election. The Olympics effect could influence the early summer and autumn votes. Right now, the safest play for the LDP is to align the Lower House election with the LDP presidential race. This allows the party to play the political card that the LDP is seeking to respect the will of the Japanese people by letting them judge the LDP’s choice for its leader with a general election that immediately follows. However, depending on the success or failures associated with COVID and the Olympics, these prospects may change.

Factional moves

Finally, observers of Japanese politics should be watching factional moves in 2021. Given the two important elections detailed above, the factions that make up the LDP will be posturing.

Right now, there is not a clear successor to Suga. It is well known that Fumio Kishida and Taro Kono have set their sights on becoming prime minister, but neither is strongly positioned to make that move within this coming year. Kishida still does not have the factional numbers to back him, and Taro Kono, while popular among the public, runs the same risk of Ishiba as being too much of a challenge to the LDP’s old guard to gain the necessary interfactional support.

Meanwhile, Shigeru Ishiba announced that he was stepping down as faction head. But that does not mean he is completely out of the game, especially if Suga’s approval ratings plummet and the LDP feels that its control of the government is under threat. It will still be important to watch his movements in 2021 because although he is down, he is not yet out.

Other potential hopefuls have been quiet about their prospects, namely Toshimitsu Motegi and Katsunobu Kato, but that does not mean they are write-offs. Especially if the LDP cannot find another viable candidate and Suga’s polling numbers drop dramatically owing to COVID-19 or the Olympics effects, then they will want a stable player to install that has decent factional support. Motegi and Kato both come from the third strongest Takeshita faction, though both also have close allies in the largest Hosoda faction (not least of which is former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe).

Whatever moves these factions make, it is important for observers to recognize that in a year with a party leadership race and a Lower House election, every one of them counts.

Dr. Michael MacArthur Bosack is the special adviser for government relations at the Yokosuka Council on Asia-Pacific Studies. He previously served in the Japanese government as a Mansfield fellow.

In a time of both misinformation and too much information, quality journalism is more crucial than ever.

 

 

Source: – The Japan Times

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Trudeau questions Poilievre's judgment, says the Conservative Leader 'will do anything to win' – The Globe and Mail

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Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is flanked by Minister of Housing Sean Fraser, right, and Treasury Board President Anita Anand, left, during a press conference in Oakville, Ont., on April 24.Cole Burston/The Canadian Press

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau criticized Pierre Poilievre over his judgment, a day after the Conservative Leader visited a protest against carbon pricing that featured a “Make Canada Great Again” slogan and a symbol that appeared to be tied to a far-right, anti-government group.

Mr. Trudeau accused Mr. Poilievre of exacerbating divisions and welcoming the “support of conspiracy theorists and extremists.”

“Every politician has to make choices about what kind of leader they want to be,” the Prime Minister said at a press conference Wednesday in Oakville, Ont.

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“He will do anything to win, anything to torque up negativity and fear and it only emphasizes that he has nothing to say to actually solve the problems that he’s busy amplifying.”

On Tuesday, Mr. Poilievre stopped at a protest against carbon pricing near the New Brunswick-Nova Scotia border while on his way from PEI to Nova Scotia. Video of the protest shows an expletive-laden flag directed at Mr. Trudeau that was a symbol of the anti-vaccine-mandate protests that gripped Ottawa two years ago, as well as an anti-carbon-tax sign and a van with the slogan “Make Canada Great Again” written on it.

“We saw you so I told the team to pull over and say ‘hello,’” Mr. Poilievre said to the protesters in one of the videos posted online. He thanked them for “all you’re doing.”

“We’re going to axe the tax and its going to be in part because you guys fought back,” Mr. Poilievre said in the videos. “Everyone hates the tax because everyone’s been screwed over. People believed his lies. Everything he said was bullshit, from top to bottom.”

When asked to take a picture in front of the flag with the expletive, Mr. Poilievre responded: “Let’s do it in front of something else.”

One of the vans at the protests has what appeared to be a symbol of the anti-government, far-right group called Diagolon. Mr. Trudeau tried on Wednesday to tie that to Mr. Poilievre. The Conservative Leader has previously disavowed the group.

In a statement Wednesday through his lawyer, the group’s leader, Jeremy MacKenzie, said he was Mr. Poilievre’s biggest detractor in Canada. He also criticized Mr. Trudeau, saying “both of these weak men are completely out of touch with reality and incapable of telling the truth.”

Mr. Poilievre’s office defended the Conservative Leader’s visit to the protest in a statement on Wednesday.

“As a vocal opponent of Justin Trudeau’s punishing carbon tax which has driven up the cost of groceries, gas and heating, he made a brief, impromptu stop,” spokesperson Sebastian Skamski said.

“If Justin Trudeau is concerned about extremism, he should look at parades on Canadian streets openly celebrating Hamas’ slaughter of Jews on October 7th.”

During his press conference, Mr. Trudeau also pointed out that Mr. Poilievre has done nothing to reject the endorsement of right-wing commentator Alex Jones earlier this month. Mr. Jones, on X, called Mr. Poilievre “the real deal” and said “Canada desperately needs a lot more leaders like him and so does the rest of the world.”

Mr. Jones was ordered to pay nearly $1-billion in damages to the families of the victims of the deadly 2012 Sandy Hook school shooting, which he portrayed as a hoax.

“This is the kind of man who’s saying Pierre Poilievre has the right ideas to bring the country toward the right, towards conspiracy theories, towards extremism, towards polarization,” Mr. Trudeau said.

In response to the Prime Minister’s remarks, Mr. Skamski said “we do not follow” Mr. Jones “or listen to what he has to say.”

“Common-sense Conservatives are listening to the priorities of the millions of Canadians that want to axe the tax, build the homes, fix the budget and stop the crime,” he added.

“It is the endorsement of hard-working, everyday Canadians that Conservatives are working to earn. Unlike Justin Trudeau, we’re not paying attention to what some American is saying.”

With a report from The Canadian Press.

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Politics Briefing: Younger demographics not swayed by federal budget benefits targeted at them, poll indicates

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Hello,

The federal government’s efforts to connect with Gen Z adults and millennials through programs in last week’s federal budget has not yet worked, says a new poll.

The Angus Reid Institute says today that the opposition Conservatives are running at 43 per cent voter support compared to 23 per cent for the governing Liberals, while the NDP are at 19 per cent.

Polling by the institute also finds the Liberals are the third choice among Gen Z and millennial voters, falling behind the NDP and Conservatives.

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According to the institute, Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre is viewed more positively among Gen Z adults than Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, with Poilievre at 29 per cent approval and Trudeau at 17 per cent. Poilievre also has a higher favorability than Trudeau’s approval among younger and older millennials.

Gen Z adults were born between 1997 and 2012, while the birth period of millennials was 1981 to 1996.

The poll conclusions are based on online polling conducted from April 19 – three days after the budget was released – to April 23, among a randomized sample of 3, 015 Canadians. Such research has a probability sample of plus or minus two percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Asked about the poll today, Trudeau said the budget is aimed at solving problems, helping young people and delivering homes and services such as child care.

“I am confident that as Canadians see these measures happening, they will be more optimistic about their future, the way we need them to be,” Trudeau told a news conference in Oakville, Ont.

He also said he expected Canadians to be thoughtful about the future when they vote. “I trust Canadians to be reasonable,” he said.

The Globe and Mail has previously reported that Trudeau’s government has set an internal goal of narrowing the Conservative Party’s double-digit lead by five points every six months. A federal election is expected next year.

This is the daily Politics Briefing newsletter, written by Ian Bailey. It is available exclusively to our digital subscribers. If you’re reading this on the web, subscribers can sign up for the Politics newsletter and more than 20 others on our newsletter sign-up page. Have any feedback? Let us know what you think.

TODAY’S HEADLINES

Pierre Poilievre visits convoy camp, claims Trudeau is lying about ‘everything’: CBC reports that the Conservative Leader is facing questions after stopping to cheer on an anti-carbon tax convoy camp near the border between New Brunswick and Nova Scotia, where he bluntly accused Prime Minister Justin Trudeau of lying about “everything.”

Smith defends appointment of task force led by doctor skeptical of COVID-19 measures: The Globe and Mail has published details of the little-known task force that was given a sweeping mandate by the government to assess data used to inform pandemic decision-making. Story here.

Canadians should expect politicians to support right to bail, Arif Virani’s office says: The office of Canada’s Justice Minister says, warning that “immediate” and “uninformed reactions” only worsens matters.

Parti Québécois is on its way back to the centre of Quebec politics: The province’s next general election isn’t until 2026, a political eternity away, and support for separating from Canada remains stagnant. But a resurgent Quebec nationalism, frustration with Ottawa, and the PQ’s youthful, upbeat leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon have put sovereignty back on the agenda.

Anaida Poilievre in B.C.: The wife of the federal Conservative Leader has been on a visit to Kelowna in recent days that was expected to conclude today, according to Castanet.net.

Ontario to do away with sick note requirement for short absences: The province will soon introduce legislation that, if passed, will no longer allow employers to require a sick note from a doctor for the provincially protected three days of sick leave workers are entitled to.

Australian reporter runs into visa trouble in India after reporting on slaying of Canadian Sikh separatist: In a statement, the New York-based Committee to Protect Journalists said Indian authorities should safeguard press freedom and stop using visa regulations to prevent foreign journalists covering sensitive subjects.

Canadian military to destroy 11,000 Second World War-era pistols: The Ottawa Citizen reports that the move comes as the Canadian Forces confirmed it has received the final deliveries of a new nine-millimetre pistol as part of a $19.4-million project.

B.C. opposition leader in politics-free oasis: The first hint that there may be more to Kevin Falcon, leader of the official opposition BC United party, than his political stereotype comes when you pull up to his North Vancouver home – a single-level country cottage rancher dwarfed on one side by large, angular, modern monstrosity. A NorthernBeat profile.

TODAY’S POLITICAL QUOTES.

“Having an argument with CRA about not wanting to pay your taxes is not a position I want anyone to be in. Good luck with that Premier Moe.” – Prime Minister Justin Trudeau on the Canada Revenue Agency weighing in on Saskatchewan’s government move to stop collecting and remitting the federal carbon levy.

“That’s not something that we’re hoping for. We’re not trying to plan for an election.“ – NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh, at a news conference in Edmonton today, on the possibilities of an election now ahead of the vote expected in the fall of 2025.

THIS AND THAT

Commons, Senate: The House of Commons is on a break until April 29. The Senate sits again April 30.

Deputy Prime Minister’s day: In the Newfoundland and Labrador city of Mount Pearl, Chrystia Freeland held an event to talk about the federal budget.

Ministers on the road: Cabinet efforts to sell the budget continue, with announcements largely focused on housing. Citizens’ Services Minister Terry Beech and Small Business Minister Rechie Valdez are in Burnaby, B.C. Defence Minister Bill Blair is in Yellowknife. Employment Minister Randy Boissonnault is in Edmonton. Environment Minister Steven Guilbeault, Industry Minister François-Philippe Champagne and Natural Revenue Minister Marie-Claude Bibeau are in the Quebec city of Trois-Rivières.

Indigenous Services Minister Patty Hajdu is in Lytton, B.C., with an additional event welcoming members of the Skwlāx te Secwepemcúl̓ecw band to four new subdivisions built after the 2023 Bush Creek East wildfire. International Development Minister Ahmed Hussen is in Sault Ste. Marie. Foreign Affairs Minister Mélanie Joly is in Québec City. Diversity Minister Kamal Khera is in Kingston, Ontario. Immigration Minister Marc Miller and Tourism Minister Soraya Martinez Ferrada are in Whitehorse. Justice Minister Arif Virani and Families Minister Jenna Sudds are in North York, Ont. Veterans Affairs Minister Ginette Petitpas Taylor is in Charlottetown.

Meanwhile, International Trade Minister Mary Ng is in South Korea leading a group of businesses and organizations through to tomorrow.

GG in Saskatchewan: Mary Simon and her partner, Whit Fraser, on the last day of their official visit to Saskatchewan, is in Saskatoon, with commitments that include visiting the Maternal Care Centre at the Jim Pattison Hospital and meeting with Indigenous leaders.

Ukraine needs more military aid, UCC says: The Ukrainian Canadian Congress says Canada should substantially increase military assistance to Ukraine. “As President Zelensky stated, “The key now is speed,’” said a statement today from the organization. The appeal coincides with U.S. President Joe Biden signing into law an aid package that provides over US$61-billion in aid for Ukraine. “We call on the Canadian government and all allies to follow suit and to immediately and substantially increase military assistance to Ukraine,” said the statement. An update issued on the occasion of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s February visit to Ukraine noted that, since Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, the Canadian government has provided $13.3-billion to Ukraine.

New chief commissioner of the Canadian Grain Commission: David Hunt, most recently an assistant deputy minister in Manitoba’s environment department, has been named to the post for a four-year term by Agriculture Minister Lawrence MacAulay.

PRIME MINISTER’S DAY

In Oakville, near Toronto, Justin Trudeau talked about federal-budget housing measures, and took media questions.

LEADERS

Bloc Québécois Leader Yves-François Blanchet is in the Quebec city of Victoriaville, with commitments that include a meeting at the Centre for Social Innovation in Agriculture

Green Party Leader Elizabeth May, in the Vancouver Island city of Nanaimo, attended the sentencing of deputy party leader Angela Davidson, also known as Rainbow Eyes, convicted of seven counts of criminal contempt for her participation in the Fairy Creek logging blockades on Vancouver Island.

NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh, in Edmonton, held a media availability.

No schedule released for Conservative Party Leader Pierre Poilievre.

THE DECIBEL

James Griffiths, The Globe’s Asia correspondent, is on the show t to discuss Article 23 – a new national security law in Hong Kong that includes seven new offences related to sedition, treason and state secrets that is expected to have a chilling effect on protest. The Decibel is here.

OPINION

The Liberals’ capital-gains tax hike punishes prosperity

“In her budget speech this month, Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland pointed to 1980s-era tax changes by the Progressive Conservative government of Brian Mulroney as a precedent for boosting the tax take on capital gains. … If one were to leave it at that, the Liberals come off quite well, having decided to boost the inclusion rate for capital gains – the amount subject to tax – to two-thirds, well below that of the latter years of the Mulroney government. But Ms. Freeland was only telling half the story.” – The Globe and Mail Editorial Board

The Liberals weight-loss goal shows they are running out of options

“The bad polls are weighing down the Liberals, so they have decided to shed some weight: They aim to cut the Conservatives’ lead by five percentage points by July. Like middle-aged dieters beginning a new regime, they’ve looked in the mirror and decided they have to do something. They’ve committed to it, too.” – Campbell Clark

Fear the politicization of pensions, no matter the politician

“Alberta Premier Danielle Smith and federal Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland don’t have a lot in common. But they do share at least one view: that governments could play a bigger role directing pension investments to the benefit of domestic industries and economic priorities. Canadians, no matter who they vote for, should be worried that these two political heavyweights share any common ground in this regard.” – Kelly Cryderman

The failure of Canada’s health care system is a disgrace – and a deadly one

“What can be said about Canada’s health care system that hasn’t been said countless times over, as we watch more and more people suffer and die as they wait for baseline standards of care? Despite our delusions, we don’t have “world-class” health care, as our Prime Minister has said; we don’t even have universal health care. What we have is health care if you’re lucky, or well connected, or if you happen to have a heart attack on a day when your closest ER is merely overcapacity as usual, and not stuffed to the point of incapacitation.” – Robyn Urback

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Pecker’s Trump Trial Testimony Is a Lesson in Power Politics

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David Pecker, convivial, accommodating and as bright as a button, sat in the witness stand in a Manhattan courtroom on Tuesday and described how power is used and abused.

“What I would do is publish positive stories about Mr. Trump,” the former tabloid hegemon and fabulist allowed, as if he was sharing some of his favorite dessert recipes. “And I would publish negative stories about his opponents.”

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