A bit of geeky jargon has become a rallying cry in the fight against the novel coronavirus, as people around the world try to “flatten the curve” by doing the little things necessary to stop the spread of the virus that causes COVID-19.
The term comes from public health experts, but it’s gone viral amid the coronavirus outbreak thanks to a few widely-shared infographics.
The “curve” refers to something called an epi curve, a graph line that charts the rise, peak and fall of existing infections over time.
The “flatten the curve” concept is simple: if everyone gets sick at the same time, hospitals will be overwhelmed and people will die without treatment. However, if everyone does what they can to avoid spreading the virus and “flatten” the infection numbers on any given day, hospitals will have a better chance of giving all patients the help they need over a longer period of time.
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1:56 Are Canada’s hospitals equipped to deal with more COVID-19 cases?
Are Canada’s hospitals equipped to deal with more COVID-19 cases?
You might think of it as the difference between peak rush hour traffic on a Friday and flattened-out traffic patterns on a Sunday afternoon. One situation can be madness, while the other is more manageable.
“There is a slower rate of cases over time so that the hospital systems can deal with that more efficiently, instead of being overwhelmed all at once,” said Dr. Alyson Kelvin, an assistant professor at Dalhousie University and an influenza virologist at the Canadian Centre for Vaccinology.
The best way to flatten the curve is to wash your hands, avoid large crowds and practice social distancing, public health officials have repeatedly said.
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“What we need to do is flatten that down,” said Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the U.S. Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, during a White House briefing on Tuesday. “You do that with trying to interfere with the natural flow of the outbreak.”
More than 127,000 people have been diagnosed with COVID-19 worldwide since the outbreak started in late December. The disease has killed more than 4,700 people, including one in Canada.
“Flattening the curve keeps society going,” Dr. Drew Harris, a population health analyst at Thomas Jefferson University, told the New York Times. He explained that hospitals simply don’t have enough beds or ventilators to treat a large percentage of a given country’s population all at once, so the best thing people can do is wash their hands and hopefully slow the surge down.
“Understanding and managing surge is an important part of preparedness,” he said.
Harris tweeted an image of the curve on Feb. 28 and the infographic quickly went viral.
The image shows two curves depicting the potential number of cases at a given time. One is a tall curve that surpasses the healthcare system’s capacity, represented by a dotted line. Another hill is shorter, wider and within the healthcare system’s capacity to respond. The latter hill is possible if society embraces preventive measures, Harris said.
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Important to remember that #Covid-19 epidemic control measures may only delay cases, not prevent. However, this helps limit surge and gives hospitals time to prepare and manage. It’s the difference between finding an ICU bed & ventilator or being treated in the parking lot tent. pic.twitter.com/VOyfBcLMus
China appears to have flattened its curve after imposing severe lockdowns on the outbreak’s epicentre, Wuhan, and the surrounding area. The country’s outbreak peaked in late January and February, but new cases shrank to just 15 on Wednesday.
“If you think of it from the virus’ perspective, it would like to spread quickly and to as many people as possible, so it wants a rapid outbreak,” said Jodie Dionne-Odon, an assistant professor specializing in infectious diseases at the University of Alabama at Birmingham.
“The reason to flatten out the curve is really to give us time to respond to a rapidly worsening outbreak,” she told NBC News.
“You can be the best hospital in New York or Singapore … and eventually your capacity will be breached and then you’ve got people being ventilated in corridors,” added Dale Fisher, chairman of the World Health Organization’s Global Outbreak Alert and Response Network.
“It is so important for people to understand.”
1:11 Health official tells Congress that COVID-19 testing “failing” in U.S.
Health official tells Congress that COVID-19 testing “failing” in U.S.
Health experts, celebrities, activists and everyday people have started promoting coronavirus preparedness under the hashtag #FlattentheCurve on social media.
“We can’t solve a crisis without treating it as a crisis and we must unite behind experts and science,” climate activist Greta Thunberg wrote in a Twitter thread with the hashtag on Wednesday. She urged her followers to take their long-running Friday climate protests into the digital world, rather than rallying in large groups as they have in the past.
“Keep your numbers low but your spirits high and let’s take one week at a time,” she wrote.
“Be understanding. Be kind,” tweeted Pennsylvania Lieutenant Governor John Fetterman. “We’re in this together.”
In times of pandemic, consider not just yourself, but others in your neighborhood and community. Don’t just consider whether you might be sick. Ask also how you might help prevent others from being put at risk. Social distancing can help #FlattenTheCurve.
The new coronavirus was first identified in Hubei province, China, in December 2019 and spread rapidly. While the outbreak has begun to level off in China, it seems the virus has found a foothold in a number of countries around the world, and it continues to spread.
Confused about COVID-19? Here are some things you need to know:
Health officials say the risk is very low for Canadians, but they caution against travel to affected areas (a list can be found here). If you do travel to these places, they recommend you self-monitor to see whether you develop symptoms and if you do, to contact public health authorities.
Symptoms can include fever, cough and difficulty breathing — very similar to a cold or flu. Some people can develop a more severe illness. People most at risk of this include older adults and people with severe chronic medical conditions like heart, lung or kidney disease.
To prevent the virus from spreading, experts recommend frequent handwashing and coughing into your sleeve. And if you get sick, stay at home.
For full COVID-19 coverage from Global News, click here.
The Canadian government says it will donate up to 200,000 vaccine doses to fight the mpox outbreak in Congo and other African countries.
It says the donated doses of Imvamune will come from Canada’s existing supply and will not affect the country’s preparedness for mpox cases in this country.
Minister of Health Mark Holland says the donation “will help to protect those in the most affected regions of Africa and will help prevent further spread of the virus.”
Dr. Madhukar Pai, Canada research chair in epidemiology and global health, says although the donation is welcome, it is a very small portion of the estimated 10 million vaccine doses needed to control the outbreak.
Vaccine donations from wealthier countries have only recently started arriving in Africa, almost a month after the World Health Organization declared the mpox outbreak a public health emergency of international concern.
A few days after the declaration in August, Global Affairs Canada announced a contribution of $1 million for mpox surveillance, diagnostic tools, research and community awareness in Africa.
On Thursday, the Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention said mpox is still on the rise and that testing rates are “insufficient” across the continent.
Jason Kindrachuk, Canada research chair in emerging viruses at the University of Manitoba, said donating vaccines, in addition to supporting surveillance and diagnostic tests, is “massively important.”
But Kindrachuk, who has worked on the ground in Congo during the epidemic, also said that the international response to the mpox outbreak is “better late than never (but) better never late.”
“It would have been fantastic for us globally to not be in this position by having provided doses a much, much longer time prior than when we are,” he said, noting that the outbreak of clade I mpox in Congo started in early 2023.
Clade II mpox, endemic in regions of West Africa, came to the world’s attention even earlier — in 2022 — as that strain of virus spread to other countries, including Canada.
Two doses are recommended for mpox vaccination, so the donation may only benefit 100,000 people, Pai said.
Pai questioned whether Canada is contributing enough, as the federal government hasn’t said what percentage of its mpox vaccine stockpile it is donating.
“Small donations are simply not going to help end this crisis. We need to show greater solidarity and support,” he said in an email.
“That is the biggest lesson from the COVID-19 pandemic — our collective safety is tied with that of other nations.”
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 13, 2024.
Canadian Press health coverage receives support through a partnership with the Canadian Medical Association. CP is solely responsible for this content.
HALIFAX – The Nova Scotia government says it could be months before it reveals how many people are on the wait-list for a family doctor.
The head of the province’s health authority told reporters Wednesday that the government won’t release updated data until the 160,000 people who were on the wait-list in June are contacted to verify whether they still need primary care.
Karen Oldfield said Nova Scotia Health is working on validating the primary care wait-list data before posting new numbers, and that work may take a matter of months. The most recent public wait-list figures are from June 1, when 160,234 people, or about 16 per cent of the population, were on it.
“It’s going to take time to make 160,000 calls,” Oldfield said. “We are not talking weeks, we are talking months.”
The interim CEO and president of Nova Scotia Health said people on the list are being asked where they live, whether they still need a family doctor, and to give an update on their health.
A spokesperson with the province’s Health Department says the government and its health authority are “working hard” to turn the wait-list registry into a useful tool, adding that the data will be shared once it is validated.
Nova Scotia’s NDP are calling on Premier Tim Houston to immediately release statistics on how many people are looking for a family doctor. On Tuesday, the NDP introduced a bill that would require the health minister to make the number public every month.
“It is unacceptable for the list to be more than three months out of date,” NDP Leader Claudia Chender said Tuesday.
Chender said releasing this data regularly is vital so Nova Scotians can track the government’s progress on its main 2021 campaign promise: fixing health care.
The number of people in need of a family doctor has more than doubled between the 2021 summer election campaign and June 2024. Since September 2021 about 300 doctors have been added to the provincial health system, the Health Department said.
“We’ll know if Tim Houston is keeping his 2021 election promise to fix health care when Nova Scotians are attached to primary care,” Chender said.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 11, 2024.
ST. JOHN’S, N.L. – Newfoundland and Labrador‘s chief medical officer is monitoring the rise of whooping cough infections across the province as cases of the highly contagious disease continue to grow across Canada.
Dr. Janice Fitzgerald says that so far this year, the province has recorded 230 confirmed cases of the vaccine-preventable respiratory tract infection, also known as pertussis.
Late last month, Quebec reported more than 11,000 cases during the same time period, while Ontario counted 470 cases, well above the five-year average of 98. In Quebec, the majority of patients are between the ages of 10 and 14.
Meanwhile, New Brunswick has declared a whooping cough outbreak across the province. A total of 141 cases were reported by last month, exceeding the five-year average of 34.
The disease can lead to severe complications among vulnerable populations including infants, who are at the highest risk of suffering from complications like pneumonia and seizures. Symptoms may start with a runny nose, mild fever and cough, then progress to severe coughing accompanied by a distinctive “whooping” sound during inhalation.
“The public, especially pregnant people and those in close contact with infants, are encouraged to be aware of symptoms related to pertussis and to ensure vaccinations are up to date,” Newfoundland and Labrador’s Health Department said in a statement.
Whooping cough can be treated with antibiotics, but vaccination is the most effective way to control the spread of the disease. As a result, the province has expanded immunization efforts this school year. While booster doses are already offered in Grade 9, the vaccine is now being offered to Grade 8 students as well.
Public health officials say whooping cough is a cyclical disease that increases every two to five or six years.
Meanwhile, New Brunswick’s acting chief medical officer of health expects the current case count to get worse before tapering off.
A rise in whooping cough cases has also been reported in the United States and elsewhere. The Pan American Health Organization issued an alert in July encouraging countries to ramp up their surveillance and vaccination coverage.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 10, 2024.
