From March 14 to 21, 2024, Abacus Data conducted a survey of 1,500 Ontario adults exploring several topics as part of our regular national omnibus surveys.
Every month, with our media partner the Toronto Star, we track how Ontarians are feeling about their political choices and add new topics based on current events and discussions. In this edition of the survey, we explored perceptions about Doug Ford’s government in more depth and the relationship between Ford, Prime Minister Trudeau, and Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre.
We begin by examining the current political landscape in Ontario.
Doug Ford and the Ontario PCs lead by 14 percentage points over Bonnie Crombie’s Ontario Liberals.
If an election were held today, 41% of committed voters in Ontario would vote PC with the Ontario Liberals at 27%, the Ontario NDP at 21%, and the Greens at 7%.
Since our last survey, the PC and Liberal vote share is steady while the Ontario NDP is up 2.
Regionally, the PCs lead in every region of the province. They are ahead by 9 in Toronto, 11 in the GTHA, 21 in southwestern Ontario, and 19 in eastern Ontario.
The PCs also lead among men (by 21) and women (by 6) and across every age group. Over time, we have noticed that the PCs have become more popular among younger Ontarians. This mimics what we have seen at the national level with Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives and something we think is directly tied to the popularity of Poilievre among younger Ontarians. More on that below.
When it comes to the Ford government overall, 1 in 3 Ontarians approve of the government’s job performance while 43% disapprove. Since last month, the Ford government’s approval rating is up 4-points while disapproval is down 5 points since the beginning of the year.
Impressions of the four main party leaders are stable since last month. 1 in 3 have a favourable view of Premier Ford compared with 43% who have a negative impression for a net score of -11.
Marit Stiles has a net score of +2, while Bonnie Crombie is even with 27% positive and 27% negative.
How do Ontarians View the Ford Government?
Respondents were asked to choose phrases or words that describe the Ford government. We asked the same question to our national sample about the Trudeau government and to a large sample in Alberta about the provincial government led by Danielle Smith. We will share results of those results in the coming days.
In Ontario, views of the Ford government are mixed. For example, Ontarians are about evenly split on whether the provincial government is focused or distracted, whther it is clear on what it wants Ontario to be or not, and whether it is effective or ineffective. Moreover, about 1 in 3 feel the provincial government is focused on the right priorities, proactive rather than reactive, and empathetic rather than indifferent.
And the importance of these perceptions are shown when we look at the correlation between perceptions and vote intention. The table below reports the PC vote share by response. It shows that the strongest predictors of support for the PCs are among those who think the government is focused on the right priorities, is collaborative, is effective, and is empathetic. And if you think about the Premier’s actions over the past several months – efforts to be seen as “getting things done” and responsive to the public (empathy) – are important to its image and political support.
Is Pierre Poilievre lifting the Ford PCs in Ontario?
In this survey, we also asked several questions about the relationship between Doug Ford, Justin Trudeau, and Pierre Poilievre – trying to understand what public perceptions are and whether Pierre Poilievre is helping or hurting the PCs in Ontario.
Here’s what we found:
Half of Ontarians believe that the relationship between Doug Ford and Justin Trudeau is close or at least cordial and profession. Another 30% believe it is cold, distant, or antagonistic.
In contrast, fewer people have a sense of the relationship between Doug Ford and Pierre Poilievre. 38% don’t know what the relationship is like with the rest split. More feel the relationship is positive or cordial (48%) than think it’s cold, distant, or antagonistic (15%).
When asked whether they think Doug Ford and Pierre Poilievre would work well together or not, if Poilievre were to become Prime Minister, 45% think they would work well together, including 74% of PC supporters, 66% of federal Conservative supporters in Ontario. Federal Liberal supporters in Ontario are split with 35% thinking they would work well together and 35% thinking they wouldn’t.
When asked who they think Doug Ford would prefer to be Prime Minister – Poilievre or Trudeau – 56% think he’d prefer Poilievre as Prime Minister while about 1 in 5 think he prefers Trudeau. 27% are unsure. Among Ontario PC supporters, 12% think he’d prefer Trudeau. Among federal Conservative supporters in Ontario, that drops to 5%.
We also asked people how they felt about Ford and Poilievre. 1 in 4 Ontarians (26%) say they like both men while 16% like Poilievre but not Ford, and 10% like Ford but not Poilievre. 31% like neither while 16% don’t have clear views on either of them.
Among Ontario PC supporters, 66% say they like both while 15% like Ford and not Poilievre while 9% like Poilievre and not Ford. Among federal Conservative supporters in Ontario, half like both men equally while 28% like Poilievre but not Ford and 6% like Ford and not Poilievre.
Finally, when we ask those who would vote Conservative federally AND Progressive Conservative in Ontario whether they identify more closely as a Ford Conservative or a Poilievre Conservative, 44% identify more as a Poilievre Conservative, 20% more as a Ford Conservative, and 33% say they identify with both equally. Interestingly, federal/provincial Conservative voters under 44 are more likely to identify with Poilievre signally the impact that Poilievre’s popularity with younger people is having on Ontario PC support.
Find out more about the The Three Threads and how the Abacus Data team looks at polling for public affairs and advocacy.
The Upshot
According to Abacus Data CEO David Coletto: “Doug Ford’s PC Party remain in a strong position in Ontario. The provincial government’s approval rating is improving, disapproval is dropping, and its hypothetical vote intention is holding steady.
The additional questions we asked this month provide nuanced insight into the complex relationship between the federal Conservatives led by Pierre Poilievre and the provincial Progressive Conservative (PC) Party led by Doug Ford in Ontario. It also sheds light on potential dynamics between Doug Ford and the federal political leaders, Pierre Poilievre and Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.
Our polling indicates a general perception that Doug Ford has a closer or at least a cordial and professional relationship with Justin Trudeau compared to Pierre Poilievre, with half of Ontarians viewing the Ford-Trudeau relationship positively. However, perceptions of Ford’s relationship with Poilievre are less clear, with a significant portion of the population either unaware of the nature of their relationship or viewing it as positive or cordial.
A notable percentage of Ontarians, including a majority of PC and federal Conservative supporters, believe that Ford and Poilievre would work well together if Poilievre were to become Prime Minister. This suggests a perceived alignment or compatibility in their political or governance approaches among their supporters.
Given the perception that Ford has a somewhat positive relationship with both Trudeau and Poilievre, Ford may navigate his political strategy based on practical considerations rather than personal affinity. However, the strong belief among Ontarians that he would prefer Poilievre as Prime Minister, especially among Conservative supporters, may pressure Ford to display a more visible alignment or cooperation with Poilievre, especially if Poilievre’s influence and popularity continues to grow. This pressure will grow even more if more and more people come to expect that Poilievre will be Prime Minister after the next federal election.
The distinction between those who identify more with Poilievre or Ford among Conservative voters hints at differing political brands within the Conservative spectrum in Ontario. This differentiation could influence Ford’s approach to provincial governance, potentially balancing between maintaining his political identity and aligning with Poilievre’s policies to ensure cohesive support from the Conservative base.
Finally, these results also demonstrate the importance of the Ford government following through on its promise to get things done as perceptions of focus and effectiveness are the strongest predictors of support for the Ontario PC Party.”
Looking to conduct polling or market research in 2024? Have budget left to spend before the end of March? Send Yvonne an email to connect with the Abacus Data team today!
Methodology
The survey was conducted with 1,500 Ontario adults from March 16 to 21, 2024. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.5%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
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HALIFAX – Nova Scotia Premier Tim Houston says it’s “disgraceful and demeaning” that a Halifax-area school would request that service members not wear military uniforms to its Remembrance Day ceremony.
Houston’s comments were part of a chorus of criticism levelled at the school — Sackville Heights Elementary — whose administration decided to back away from the plan after the outcry.
A November newsletter from the school in Middle Sackville, N.S., invited Armed Forces members to attend its ceremony but asked that all attendees arrive in civilian attire to “maintain a welcoming environment for all.”
Houston, who is currently running for re-election, accused the school’s leaders of “disgracing themselves while demeaning the people who protect our country” in a post on the social media platform X Thursday night.
“If the people behind this decision had a shred of the courage that our veterans have, this cowardly and insulting idea would have been rejected immediately,” Houston’s post read. There were also several calls for resignations within the school’s administration attached to Houston’s post.
In an email to families Thursday night, the school’s principal, Rachael Webster, apologized and welcomed military family members to attend “in the attire that makes them most comfortable.”
“I recognize this request has caused harm and I am deeply sorry,” Webster’s email read, adding later that the school has the “utmost respect for what the uniform represents.”
Webster said the initial request was out of concern for some students who come from countries experiencing conflict and who she said expressed discomfort with images of war, including military uniforms.
Her email said any students who have concerns about seeing Armed Forces members in uniform can be accommodated in a way that makes them feel safe, but she provided no further details in the message.
Webster did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
At a news conference Friday, Houston said he’s glad the initial request was reversed but said he is still concerned.
“I can’t actually fathom how a decision like that was made,” Houston told reporters Friday, adding that he grew up moving between military bases around the country while his father was in the Armed Forces.
“My story of growing up in a military family is not unique in our province. The tradition of service is something so many of us share,” he said.
“Saying ‘lest we forget’ is a solemn promise to the fallen. It’s our commitment to those that continue to serve and our commitment that we will pass on our respects to the next generation.”
Liberal Leader Zach Churchill also said he’s happy with the school’s decision to allow uniformed Armed Forces members to attend the ceremony, but he said he didn’t think it was fair to question the intentions of those behind the original decision.
“We need to have them (uniforms) on display at Remembrance Day,” he said. “Not only are we celebrating (veterans) … we’re also commemorating our dead who gave the greatest sacrifice for our country and for the freedoms we have.”
NDP Leader Claudia Chender said that while Remembrance Day is an important occasion to honour veterans and current service members’ sacrifices, she said she hopes Houston wasn’t taking advantage of the decision to “play politics with this solemn occasion for his own political gain.”
“I hope Tim Houston reached out to the principal of the school before making a public statement,” she said in a statement.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.
REGINA – Saskatchewan Opposition NDP Leader Carla Beck says she wants to prove to residents her party is the government in waiting as she heads into the incoming legislative session.
Beck held her first caucus meeting with 27 members, nearly double than what she had before the Oct. 28 election but short of the 31 required to form a majority in the 61-seat legislature.
She says her priorities will be health care and cost-of-living issues.
Beck says people need affordability help right now and will press Premier Scott Moe’s Saskatchewan Party government to cut the gas tax and the provincial sales tax on children’s clothing and some grocery items.
Beck’s NDP is Saskatchewan’s largest Opposition in nearly two decades after sweeping Regina and winning all but one seat in Saskatoon.
The Saskatchewan Party won 34 seats, retaining its hold on all of the rural ridings and smaller cities.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.
HALIFAX – Nova Scotia‘s growing population was the subject of debate on Day 12 of the provincial election campaign, with Liberal Leader Zach Churchill arguing immigration levels must be reduced until the province can provide enough housing and health-care services.
Churchill said Thursday a plan by the incumbent Progressive Conservatives to double the province’s population to two million people by the year 2060 is unrealistic and unsustainable.
“That’s a big leap and it’s making life harder for people who live here, (including ) young people looking for a place to live and seniors looking to downsize,” he told a news conference at his campaign headquarters in Halifax.
Anticipating that his call for less immigration might provoke protests from the immigrant community, Churchill was careful to note that he is among the third generation of a family that moved to Nova Scotia from Lebanon.
“I know the value of immigration, the importance of it to our province. We have been built on the backs of an immigrant population. But we just need to do it in a responsible way.”
The Liberal leader said Tim Houston’s Tories, who are seeking a second term in office, have made a mistake by exceeding immigration targets set by the province’s Department of Labour and Immigration. Churchill said a Liberal government would abide by the department’s targets.
In the most recent fiscal year, the government welcomed almost 12,000 immigrants through its nominee program, exceeding the department’s limit by more than 4,000, he said. The numbers aren’t huge, but the increase won’t help ease the province’s shortages in housing and doctors, and the increased strain on its infrastructure, including roads, schools and cellphone networks, Churchill said.
“(The Immigration Department) has done the hard work on this,” he said. “They know where the labour gaps are, and they know what growth is sustainable.”
In response, Houston said his commitment to double the population was a “stretch goal.” And he said the province had long struggled with a declining population before that trend was recently reversed.
“The only immigration that can come into this province at this time is if they are a skilled trade worker or a health-care worker,” Houston said. “The population has grown by two per cent a year, actually quite similar growth to what we experienced under the Liberal government before us.”
Still, Houston said he’s heard Nova Scotians’ concerns about population growth, and he then pivoted to criticize Prime Minister Justin Trudeau for trying to send 6,000 asylum seekers to Nova Scotia, an assertion the federal government has denied.
Churchill said Houston’s claim about asylum seekers was shameful.
“It’s smoke and mirrors,” the Liberal leader said. “He is overshooting his own department’s numbers for sustainable population growth and yet he is trying to blame this on asylum seekers … who aren’t even here.”
In September, federal Immigration Minister Marc Miller said there is no plan to send any asylum seekers to the province without compensation or the consent of the premier. He said the 6,000 number was an “aspirational” figure based on models that reflect each province’s population.
In Halifax, NDP Leader Claudia Chender said it’s clear Nova Scotia needs more doctors, nurses and skilled trades people.
“Immigration has been and always will be a part of the Nova Scotia story, but we need to build as we grow,” Chender said. “This is why we have been pushing the Houston government to build more affordable housing.”
Chender was in a Halifax cafe on Thursday when she promised her party would remove the province’s portion of the harmonized sales tax from all grocery, cellphone and internet bills if elected to govern on Nov. 26. The tax would also be removed from the sale and installation of heat pumps.
“Our focus is on helping people to afford their lives,” Chender told reporters. “We know there are certain things that you can’t live without: food, internet and a phone …. So we know this will have the single biggest impact.”
The party estimates the measure would save the average Nova Scotia family about $1,300 a year.
“That’s a lot more than a one or two per cent HST cut,” Chender said, referring to the Progressive Conservative pledge to reduce the tax by one percentage point and the Liberal promise to trim it by two percentage points.
Elsewhere on the campaign trail, Houston announced that a Progressive Conservative government would make parking free at all Nova Scotia hospitals and health-care centres. The promise was also made by the Liberals in their election platform released Monday.
“Free parking may not seem like a big deal to some, but … the parking, especially for people working at the facilities, can add up to hundreds of dollars,” the premier told a news conference at his campaign headquarters in Halifax.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.
