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Four major forces that will truly transform the global economy – Consultancy.eu

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Global management consultancy AlixPartners has surveyed more than 3,000 CEOs and executives globally to gain insight in the key trends and priorities in the boardroom. The report concludes that business disruption across the business landscape has reached unprecedented heights, with four major forces that will transform the world economy.

Demographic decline

For large parts of the world, the decade of the 2020s marks a stark transition: It is the first decade in which all of the leading economies across the globe – Europe, the US, Japan, and China – will see labor force growth markedly slow and, in many cases, shrink.

Retirements will outpace new workforce entrants in almost every major economy. Indeed, only India, Africa and parts of the Middle East will see meaningful labor force growth in this decade. This will present a major economic tailwind: Fully a third of GDP gains over the last six decades have come directly from labor force growth.

CEOs fear the current labor shortages we are experiencing may be permanent

of the CEOs surveyed, four in five (80%) told AlixPartners they fear the current labor shortages may be permanent.

Technological acceleration

The explosion in new technologies is both a boon and a bane – technological innovation will become the principal driver of economic growth and promises to improve our lives and our world, but it is also the primary source of disruption and dislocation.

This is the tsunami wave that has executives most worried. The 2020s are seeing the emergence of the so-called bionic enterprise: the merging of human capital with artificial intelligence, big data, robotics, and an array of digital technologies to drive nextorder business outcomes. The mission for companies is clear: Be digital or die.

Climate transition

The effects and urgency of climate change have become increasingly apparent and accepted. And it is not just the long-term effects, but also the growing climate volatility as we see a marked increase in extreme weather events, both devastating and costly.

As important as climate change itself is our response to it. Roughly $2 trillion annually is now being invested in new renewable energy technologies, and fully 50% of investment dollars are now tied to net zero emissions requirements. Moreover, ESG demands from a broad range of stakeholders – including customers, employees, investors, and regulators – are driving companies to set more ambitious goals.

We should expect to see a plethora of new technologies and operating models aimed to drive a more sustainable set of environmental outcomes.

Deglobalization

After nearly three decades of expansion, the forces of globalization – which have helped fuel economic growth through greater trade, exchange, and openness – are in retreat. Barriers are going up, and global trade declining. Protectionism is on the rise.

The world’s two largest economies, the US and China, appear to be on a path of continued confrontation. Actions like Brexit and punitive trade wars are making economies more isolated than not.

A long-term realignment of supply chains is underway. The biggest near-term implication will be increased economic friction, reversing more than two decades of falling prices and access to cheap goods. We should expect continued rising prices and inflation, as well as the distinct possibility of increased global conflict.

Commenting on the four mega trends, the CEO of AlixPartners Simon Freakley said: “The pandemic presented businesses and their leaders with the most acute set of disruptors since World War II. However, CEOs view these issues as paling in comparison to the demographic, technological, climate, and international trade challenges that their businesses must confront today and in the years ahead.”

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Canada’s unemployment rate holds steady at 6.5% in October, economy adds 15,000 jobs

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OTTAWA – Canada’s unemployment rate held steady at 6.5 per cent last month as hiring remained weak across the economy.

Statistics Canada’s labour force survey on Friday said employment rose by a modest 15,000 jobs in October.

Business, building and support services saw the largest gain in employment.

Meanwhile, finance, insurance, real estate, rental and leasing experienced the largest decline.

Many economists see weakness in the job market continuing in the short term, before the Bank of Canada’s interest rate cuts spark a rebound in economic growth next year.

Despite ongoing softness in the labour market, however, strong wage growth has raged on in Canada. Average hourly wages in October grew 4.9 per cent from a year ago, reaching $35.76.

Friday’s report also shed some light on the financial health of households.

According to the agency, 28.8 per cent of Canadians aged 15 or older were living in a household that had difficulty meeting financial needs – like food and housing – in the previous four weeks.

That was down from 33.1 per cent in October 2023 and 35.5 per cent in October 2022, but still above the 20.4 per cent figure recorded in October 2020.

People living in a rented home were more likely to report difficulty meeting financial needs, with nearly four in 10 reporting that was the case.

That compares with just under a quarter of those living in an owned home by a household member.

Immigrants were also more likely to report facing financial strain last month, with about four out of 10 immigrants who landed in the last year doing so.

That compares with about three in 10 more established immigrants and one in four of people born in Canada.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Health-care spending expected to outpace economy and reach $372 billion in 2024: CIHI

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The Canadian Institute for Health Information says health-care spending in Canada is projected to reach a new high in 2024.

The annual report released Thursday says total health spending is expected to hit $372 billion, or $9,054 per Canadian.

CIHI’s national analysis predicts expenditures will rise by 5.7 per cent in 2024, compared to 4.5 per cent in 2023 and 1.7 per cent in 2022.

This year’s health spending is estimated to represent 12.4 per cent of Canada’s gross domestic product. Excluding two years of the pandemic, it would be the highest ratio in the country’s history.

While it’s not unusual for health expenditures to outpace economic growth, the report says this could be the case for the next several years due to Canada’s growing population and its aging demographic.

Canada’s per capita spending on health care in 2022 was among the highest in the world, but still less than countries such as the United States and Sweden.

The report notes that the Canadian dental and pharmacare plans could push health-care spending even further as more people who previously couldn’t afford these services start using them.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Canadian Press health coverage receives support through a partnership with the Canadian Medical Association. CP is solely responsible for this content.

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Trump’s victory sparks concerns over ripple effect on Canadian economy

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As Canadians wake up to news that Donald Trump will return to the White House, the president-elect’s protectionist stance is casting a spotlight on what effect his second term will have on Canada-U.S. economic ties.

Some Canadian business leaders have expressed worry over Trump’s promise to introduce a universal 10 per cent tariff on all American imports.

A Canadian Chamber of Commerce report released last month suggested those tariffs would shrink the Canadian economy, resulting in around $30 billion per year in economic costs.

More than 77 per cent of Canadian exports go to the U.S.

Canada’s manufacturing sector faces the biggest risk should Trump push forward on imposing broad tariffs, said Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters president and CEO Dennis Darby. He said the sector is the “most trade-exposed” within Canada.

“It’s in the U.S.’s best interest, it’s in our best interest, but most importantly for consumers across North America, that we’re able to trade goods, materials, ingredients, as we have under the trade agreements,” Darby said in an interview.

“It’s a more complex or complicated outcome than it would have been with the Democrats, but we’ve had to deal with this before and we’re going to do our best to deal with it again.”

American economists have also warned Trump’s plan could cause inflation and possibly a recession, which could have ripple effects in Canada.

It’s consumers who will ultimately feel the burden of any inflationary effect caused by broad tariffs, said Darby.

“A tariff tends to raise costs, and it ultimately raises prices, so that’s something that we have to be prepared for,” he said.

“It could tilt production mandates. A tariff makes goods more expensive, but on the same token, it also will make inputs for the U.S. more expensive.”

A report last month by TD economist Marc Ercolao said research shows a full-scale implementation of Trump’s tariff plan could lead to a near-five per cent reduction in Canadian export volumes to the U.S. by early-2027, relative to current baseline forecasts.

Retaliation by Canada would also increase costs for domestic producers, and push import volumes lower in the process.

“Slowing import activity mitigates some of the negative net trade impact on total GDP enough to avoid a technical recession, but still produces a period of extended stagnation through 2025 and 2026,” Ercolao said.

Since the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement came into effect in 2020, trade between Canada and the U.S. has surged by 46 per cent, according to the Toronto Region Board of Trade.

With that deal is up for review in 2026, Canadian Chamber of Commerce president and CEO Candace Laing said the Canadian government “must collaborate effectively with the Trump administration to preserve and strengthen our bilateral economic partnership.”

“With an impressive $3.6 billion in daily trade, Canada and the United States are each other’s closest international partners. The secure and efficient flow of goods and people across our border … remains essential for the economies of both countries,” she said in a statement.

“By resisting tariffs and trade barriers that will only raise prices and hurt consumers in both countries, Canada and the United States can strengthen resilient cross-border supply chains that enhance our shared economic security.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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