After a year of innumerable twists and turns in US politics, 2021 is shaping up to be a year of significant change.
President Donald Trump will exit the White House on January 20 and leave behind a Republican Party searching for a way forward with or without him as the centre of attention.
President-elect Joe Biden will re-enter a Washington political scene that he hopes to tame after years of intense polarization and will be confronted not only by resistance from Republicans but from within his own party as well.
Here are four things to watch as a new year in US politics commences:
Biden’s first 100 days
As with any new presidential administration, all the focus will be on what is accomplished in the first 100 days – an arbitrary measure, to be sure, but one that politicians use to set an agenda, and one that pundits use to gauge a new president’s initial governance.
Biden has laid out an ambitious plan, mostly as a reaction to Trump’s policies as president, but particularly to his handling of the coronavirus pandemic.
The president-elect said that he will ask Americans to wear masks after he is sworn in as president on January 20. “Just 100 days to mask, not forever. One hundred days,” he told CNN on December 3. A few days later, Biden vowed that he and his health team will get “at least 100 million COVID vaccine shots into the arms of the American people in the first 100 days” and “will work to see that the majority of our schools can be open by the end of my first 100 days.”
Biden has also said he would rejoin the World Health Organization. Trump withdrew from it in June.
On foreign policy, Biden has repeatedly signaled that Trump’s “America First” philosophy will be a thing of the past and has promised to rebuild alliances he argues suffered under Trump.
Biden has promised to rejoin the Paris climate agreement on his first day as president. Trump left that accord in 2017. The new president is also expected to undo many of Trump’s executive actions on the environment, as well as on immigration.
“On day one I’ll end Trump’s unconstitutional Muslim Ban”, Biden told a Muslim advocacy group in October. Also on the list of expected immigration-related reversals: ending the emergency declaration diverting funding to build the wall on the southern US border, restoring protections for children who were brought the US illegally, and ending Trump’s stricter asylum laws.
In addition, Biden and congressional Democrats are expected to propose more pandemic stimulus funding, try to undo Trump tax cuts that benefitted the wealthy, expand Obamacare, and push for police and criminal justice reforms.
Will Congress get anything done?
Democrats will have control of the White House, the House of Representatives, and possibly the Senate when January 20 rolls around, but that does not mean things will be smooth sailing, despite Biden’s optimism that he can restore bipartisanship to Washington.
Even if Democrats win both Georgia runoff races on January 5, resulting in a 50-50 Senate with Vice president-elect Kamala Harris the tiebreaking vote, the party’s control in both the Senate and House will be so slim that it will not be easy to get bills to Biden’s desk.
A 50-50 Democratic-majority Senate gives any single Democrat an inordinate amount of power to derail partisan legislation, leaving Biden and Democratic leaders to craft bills that can attract at least a few Republican senators or are written to guarantee all 50 Democratic votes. Hewing to the former likely alienates the most progressive Democrats, like Senators Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders. And trying to come up with an idea that is palatable to all 50 Democrats without any defections will not be any easier.
Biden promises to work with congressional Republicans, including Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell, left [File: Zach Gibson/AP Photo]
Combine that with a Democrat-controlled House that will have the smallest majority by either party in 90 years, and in this era of extreme partisanship it could shape up to be a recipe for gridlock or, at least, a Congress that is unable to move any groundbreaking legislation.
One other key factor to watch for as 2021 progresses: Members of Congress up for re-election, which includes every member of the House and one-third of the Senate.
“[L]awmakers will always think about the next election in 2022, a midterm vote that usually goes against the party holding the White House, making those members from swing or close districts — most of them from the moderate wing of the party — especially antsy and fearful of controversial issues or votes,” Norm Ornstein, a scholar at the American Enterprise Institute, wrote in the Washington Post this month.
Democratic resistance
One key problem for the Democrats is that they still have not decided on which direction they want to head policy-wise. As young progressives grew in numbers and became more vocal after the 2018 midterms, they have been trying to force the party further left. But with significant losses in battleground House districts as well as in over 200 counties won by Barack Obama and then by Trump in 2016 and 2020, the party’s moderates are blaming progressives for alienating middle-of-the-road voters.
These fights played out throughout the presidential primaries and are continuing through the Biden transition with progressives lashing out at old-guard Democratic leaders.
“For Democrats to succeed, [House Speaker Nancy] Pelosi and the rest of Congressional Democratic leadership have to be clear-eyed about their failures. Even as we celebrate President-elect Biden’s historic defeat of Trump, they must be held responsible for these disappointing down ballot results,” a coalition of progressive groups wrote in a November post-election memo.
From left, US Representatives Ayanna Pressley, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, and Rashida Tlaib are among the vocal progressives criticizing establishment Democratic leaders [File: Steve Ruark/AP Photo]
Establishment and moderate Democrats argue that progressives’ unwavering insistence on unpopular policy ideas such as “defunding the police” and the Green New Deal, not only are turning off moderate voters, but they set up Democrats as easy political targets for Republicans.
“We have to commit to not saying the words ‘defund the police’ ever again,” Representative Abigail Spanberger, who won an extremely tight reelection race in November, said on a post-election conference call with her fellow Democratic members. “We have to not use the words ‘socialist’ or ‘socialism’ ever again.”
“If we are classifying [Election Day] as a success and we run this way again, we will get f—— torn apart in 2022,” she added.
With progressives and moderates signalling that these fights will spill over into Biden’s term, it appears some policy gridlock could be self-inflicted for the Democrats and not just a result of the parties fighting with each other.
Trump’s – and the Republican Party’s – political futures
While the Democrats’ internal political battles may affect whether anything gets done in Washington in 2021, the Republicans’ own political battles will determine their future and who will be the key leaders of the party moving forward.
Certainly, the immediate focus will be on what Trump does when he leaves office and how involved he stays in politics. If he continues to be the centre of the party’s orbit – especially if he announces a 2024 presidential bid – that will be a key factor in determining the direction the party takes, especially considering Trump remains extremely popular among Republican voters.
Trump has not been shy about threatening Republicans who he feels have crossed him politically, going so far as calling his party’s leaders “pathetic” this week for not backing him forcefully enough on his efforts to overturn the election.
….and Congressmen/Congresswomen Elected. I do believe they forgot!
There is a long list of Republicans, including Vice President Mike Pence, Trump’s children, numerous US Senators, governors, and other Republican officials, who will surely be looking to make names for themselves either as Trump heirs or as advocates of pursuing a path away from Trumpism.
Vice President Mike Pence, left, Maryland Governor Larry Hogan, center, and former US Ambassador to the UN Nikki Haley are just a few of the Republicans expected to try to raise their profile in the coming year. [File: Chase Stevens/AP Photo]
Still, said Maryland Governor Larry Hogan, who has regularly spoken out against Trump and is considered a potential 2024 presidential candidate, Trump will continue to hold an outsized influence on the party for the immediate future.
“[T]here’s no question he’s not going away, and there’s going to be a big chunk of the Republican Party that’s going to still follow his Twitter page and listen to what he has to say,” Hogan said Sunday on ABC News.
HALIFAX – Nova Scotia Premier Tim Houston says it’s “disgraceful and demeaning” that a Halifax-area school would request that service members not wear military uniforms to its Remembrance Day ceremony.
Houston’s comments were part of a chorus of criticism levelled at the school — Sackville Heights Elementary — whose administration decided to back away from the plan after the outcry.
A November newsletter from the school in Middle Sackville, N.S., invited Armed Forces members to attend its ceremony but asked that all attendees arrive in civilian attire to “maintain a welcoming environment for all.”
Houston, who is currently running for re-election, accused the school’s leaders of “disgracing themselves while demeaning the people who protect our country” in a post on the social media platform X Thursday night.
“If the people behind this decision had a shred of the courage that our veterans have, this cowardly and insulting idea would have been rejected immediately,” Houston’s post read. There were also several calls for resignations within the school’s administration attached to Houston’s post.
In an email to families Thursday night, the school’s principal, Rachael Webster, apologized and welcomed military family members to attend “in the attire that makes them most comfortable.”
“I recognize this request has caused harm and I am deeply sorry,” Webster’s email read, adding later that the school has the “utmost respect for what the uniform represents.”
Webster said the initial request was out of concern for some students who come from countries experiencing conflict and who she said expressed discomfort with images of war, including military uniforms.
Her email said any students who have concerns about seeing Armed Forces members in uniform can be accommodated in a way that makes them feel safe, but she provided no further details in the message.
Webster did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
At a news conference Friday, Houston said he’s glad the initial request was reversed but said he is still concerned.
“I can’t actually fathom how a decision like that was made,” Houston told reporters Friday, adding that he grew up moving between military bases around the country while his father was in the Armed Forces.
“My story of growing up in a military family is not unique in our province. The tradition of service is something so many of us share,” he said.
“Saying ‘lest we forget’ is a solemn promise to the fallen. It’s our commitment to those that continue to serve and our commitment that we will pass on our respects to the next generation.”
Liberal Leader Zach Churchill also said he’s happy with the school’s decision to allow uniformed Armed Forces members to attend the ceremony, but he said he didn’t think it was fair to question the intentions of those behind the original decision.
“We need to have them (uniforms) on display at Remembrance Day,” he said. “Not only are we celebrating (veterans) … we’re also commemorating our dead who gave the greatest sacrifice for our country and for the freedoms we have.”
NDP Leader Claudia Chender said that while Remembrance Day is an important occasion to honour veterans and current service members’ sacrifices, she said she hopes Houston wasn’t taking advantage of the decision to “play politics with this solemn occasion for his own political gain.”
“I hope Tim Houston reached out to the principal of the school before making a public statement,” she said in a statement.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.
REGINA – Saskatchewan Opposition NDP Leader Carla Beck says she wants to prove to residents her party is the government in waiting as she heads into the incoming legislative session.
Beck held her first caucus meeting with 27 members, nearly double than what she had before the Oct. 28 election but short of the 31 required to form a majority in the 61-seat legislature.
She says her priorities will be health care and cost-of-living issues.
Beck says people need affordability help right now and will press Premier Scott Moe’s Saskatchewan Party government to cut the gas tax and the provincial sales tax on children’s clothing and some grocery items.
Beck’s NDP is Saskatchewan’s largest Opposition in nearly two decades after sweeping Regina and winning all but one seat in Saskatoon.
The Saskatchewan Party won 34 seats, retaining its hold on all of the rural ridings and smaller cities.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.
HALIFAX – Nova Scotia‘s growing population was the subject of debate on Day 12 of the provincial election campaign, with Liberal Leader Zach Churchill arguing immigration levels must be reduced until the province can provide enough housing and health-care services.
Churchill said Thursday a plan by the incumbent Progressive Conservatives to double the province’s population to two million people by the year 2060 is unrealistic and unsustainable.
“That’s a big leap and it’s making life harder for people who live here, (including ) young people looking for a place to live and seniors looking to downsize,” he told a news conference at his campaign headquarters in Halifax.
Anticipating that his call for less immigration might provoke protests from the immigrant community, Churchill was careful to note that he is among the third generation of a family that moved to Nova Scotia from Lebanon.
“I know the value of immigration, the importance of it to our province. We have been built on the backs of an immigrant population. But we just need to do it in a responsible way.”
The Liberal leader said Tim Houston’s Tories, who are seeking a second term in office, have made a mistake by exceeding immigration targets set by the province’s Department of Labour and Immigration. Churchill said a Liberal government would abide by the department’s targets.
In the most recent fiscal year, the government welcomed almost 12,000 immigrants through its nominee program, exceeding the department’s limit by more than 4,000, he said. The numbers aren’t huge, but the increase won’t help ease the province’s shortages in housing and doctors, and the increased strain on its infrastructure, including roads, schools and cellphone networks, Churchill said.
“(The Immigration Department) has done the hard work on this,” he said. “They know where the labour gaps are, and they know what growth is sustainable.”
In response, Houston said his commitment to double the population was a “stretch goal.” And he said the province had long struggled with a declining population before that trend was recently reversed.
“The only immigration that can come into this province at this time is if they are a skilled trade worker or a health-care worker,” Houston said. “The population has grown by two per cent a year, actually quite similar growth to what we experienced under the Liberal government before us.”
Still, Houston said he’s heard Nova Scotians’ concerns about population growth, and he then pivoted to criticize Prime Minister Justin Trudeau for trying to send 6,000 asylum seekers to Nova Scotia, an assertion the federal government has denied.
Churchill said Houston’s claim about asylum seekers was shameful.
“It’s smoke and mirrors,” the Liberal leader said. “He is overshooting his own department’s numbers for sustainable population growth and yet he is trying to blame this on asylum seekers … who aren’t even here.”
In September, federal Immigration Minister Marc Miller said there is no plan to send any asylum seekers to the province without compensation or the consent of the premier. He said the 6,000 number was an “aspirational” figure based on models that reflect each province’s population.
In Halifax, NDP Leader Claudia Chender said it’s clear Nova Scotia needs more doctors, nurses and skilled trades people.
“Immigration has been and always will be a part of the Nova Scotia story, but we need to build as we grow,” Chender said. “This is why we have been pushing the Houston government to build more affordable housing.”
Chender was in a Halifax cafe on Thursday when she promised her party would remove the province’s portion of the harmonized sales tax from all grocery, cellphone and internet bills if elected to govern on Nov. 26. The tax would also be removed from the sale and installation of heat pumps.
“Our focus is on helping people to afford their lives,” Chender told reporters. “We know there are certain things that you can’t live without: food, internet and a phone …. So we know this will have the single biggest impact.”
The party estimates the measure would save the average Nova Scotia family about $1,300 a year.
“That’s a lot more than a one or two per cent HST cut,” Chender said, referring to the Progressive Conservative pledge to reduce the tax by one percentage point and the Liberal promise to trim it by two percentage points.
Elsewhere on the campaign trail, Houston announced that a Progressive Conservative government would make parking free at all Nova Scotia hospitals and health-care centres. The promise was also made by the Liberals in their election platform released Monday.
“Free parking may not seem like a big deal to some, but … the parking, especially for people working at the facilities, can add up to hundreds of dollars,” the premier told a news conference at his campaign headquarters in Halifax.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.
