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Four trends that will shape Canadian real estate in 2021 – Toronto Sun

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The pandemic has changed the way we live and work

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Canadian real estate defied all expectations in 2020. Sales records were obliterated in countless local markets, despite sky-high prices not seen since the country’s 2014-2017 feeding frenzy.

But what about 2021? After an unprecedented year, will the Canadian market deliver an encore?

The answer will largely depend on four ongoing trends.

1. The urban exodus and the search for space

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COVID-19 triggered a tsunami of demand for larger properties among both experienced homeowners and first-time buyers. But finding adequate space at an affordable price has driven buyers into smaller exurban and rural communities where they can weather the next bout of planet-wide panic.

The flight from urban areas is likely to be the most significant trend affecting Canadian real estate in the first half of 2021. Buyers who envision a remote-work future and want more space will have little choice but to bid on properties in smaller communities where homes are generally more affordable than city centres.

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After more than a year of intermittent COVID-19 lockdowns and frustration with city life, Canadians are expected to maintain a strong desire for less crowded areas. But some economists are already questioning the future of the new remote work paradigm.

CIBC’s Benjamin Tal, the bank’s deputy chief economist, was the first prominent expert to predict the eventual end of the urban exodus. He argues it will begin losing steam when businesses decide they want their workers back in a central location.

2. The condo market will firm up — thanks to immigration

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A desire for more space has been bad news for condo sellers, eviscerating demand and flattening price growth for much of 2020.

Things have been even worse for condo investors. The three key demographics necessary for keeping their properties tenanted and profitable — immigrants, students and travellers willing to pay high nightly rates — disappeared a year ago and have yet to return.

But the mass sell-off many feared would tank the condo markets in cities like Toronto and Vancouver has not materialized. Owners seem optimistic that a combination of COVID-19 vaccinations and the federal government’s increased immigration targets for 2021 will boost condo demand back to pre-pandemic levels.

If you own a condo in Toronto, you can find out how much your property is worth with a free home valuation.

While the country’s vaccine rollout has been the target of withering criticism, Canada already is ahead of schedule for hitting the Liberals’ target of 401,000 new permanent residents in 2021.

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Minister of Immigration Marco Mendicino told Bloomberg News that 26,600 permanent residents were admitted to the country in Jan., with another 27,332 welcomed in Feb.

3. Shrinking inventory, swelling prices

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When a housing boom takes place in the midst of a global recession, it’s fair to wonder if traditional real estate fundamentals mean anything at all. Unemployment skyrockets and businesses close, but people are trampling each other so they can purchase million-dollar homes.

The result has been a lack of available properties for sale. These days, the typical Canadian city is as likely to have a painful lack of housing supply as it is a Tim Hortons.

And with the aforementioned urban exodus eroding inventory in once well-stocked and slow-moving rural markets, pressure will be put on prices everywhere, not just in the country’s biggest cities.

In Bancroft, Ontario — population 4,000 — active listings fell 63.9 per cent year-over-year in Jan. to reach their lowest level in over 30 years. The average price was a “What!?”-inducing 80.9 per cent higher than it was a year before.

4. Mortgage rates on the rise

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Driven as it’s been over the past eight months by historically low-interest rates, the strength of Canada’s housing market would seem highly sensitive — in a “Superman is sensitive to kryptonite” kind of way — to any increase in interest rates.

We’re about to find out if that’s true.

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In early March, multiple Canadian mortgage rate comparison sites reported that the lowest rate for a five-year fixed-rate mortgage rose one-quarter of 1 percentage point to 1.64 per cent, the first such increase since Jan. of last year. As the country’s major banks raise their mortgage rates, you may want to move fast to secure a favourable rate.

The increase comes at an inopportune time for recent homebuyers. Many made their purchases under the assumption that the Bank of Canada’s promise to leave interest rates low until 2023 would leave them free of any rate paranoia for the foreseeable future. Few, especially those who opted for variable-rate products, expected the cost of their mortgages to rise quite this soon.

This article was created by Wise Publishing, Inc., which provides clear, trustworthy information people can use to take control of their finances. Millions of readers throughout North America have come to count on the Toronto-based company to help them save money, find the best bank accounts, get the best mortgage rates and navigate many other financial matters.

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Greater Toronto home sales jump in October after Bank of Canada rate cuts: board

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TORONTO – The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board says home sales in October surged as buyers continued moving off the sidelines amid lower interest rates.

The board said 6,658 homes changed hands last month in the Greater Toronto Area, up 44.4 per cent compared with 4,611 in the same month last year. Sales were up 14 per cent from September on a seasonally adjusted basis.

The average selling price was up 1.1 per cent compared with a year earlier at $1,135,215. The composite benchmark price, meant to represent the typical home, was down 3.3 per cent year-over-year.

“While we are still early in the Bank of Canada’s rate cutting cycle, it definitely does appear that an increasing number of buyers moved off the sidelines and back into the marketplace in October,” said TRREB president Jennifer Pearce in a news release.

“The positive affordability picture brought about by lower borrowing costs and relatively flat home prices prompted this improvement in market activity.”

The Bank of Canada has slashed its key interest rate four times since June, including a half-percentage point cut on Oct. 23. The rate now stands at 3.75 per cent, down from the high of five per cent that deterred many would-be buyers from the housing market.

New listings last month totalled 15,328, up 4.3 per cent from a year earlier.

In the City of Toronto, there were 2,509 sales last month, a 37.6 per cent jump from October 2023. Throughout the rest of the GTA, home sales rose 48.9 per cent to 4,149.

The sales uptick is encouraging, said Cameron Forbes, general manager and broker for Re/Max Realtron Realty Inc., who added the figures for October were stronger than he anticipated.

“I thought they’d be up for sure, but not necessarily that much,” said Forbes.

“Obviously, the 50 basis points was certainly a great move in the right direction. I just thought it would take more to get things going.”

He said it shows confidence in the market is returning faster than expected, especially among existing homeowners looking for a new property.

“The average consumer who’s employed and may have been able to get some increases in their wages over the last little bit to make up some ground with inflation, I think they’re confident, so they’re looking in the market.

“The conditions are nice because you’ve got a little more time, you’ve got more choice, you’ve got fewer other buyers to compete against.”

All property types saw more sales in October compared with a year ago throughout the GTA.

Townhouses led the surge with 56.8 per cent more sales, followed by detached homes at 46.6 per cent and semi-detached homes at 44 per cent. There were 33.4 per cent more condos that changed hands year-over-year.

“Market conditions did tighten in October, but there is still a lot of inventory and therefore choice for homebuyers,” said TRREB chief market analyst Jason Mercer.

“This choice will keep home price growth moderate over the next few months. However, as inventory is absorbed and home construction continues to lag population growth, selling price growth will accelerate, likely as we move through the spring of 2025.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Homelessness: Tiny home village to open next week in Halifax suburb

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HALIFAX – A village of tiny homes is set to open next month in a Halifax suburb, the latest project by the provincial government to address homelessness.

Located in Lower Sackville, N.S., the tiny home community will house up to 34 people when the first 26 units open Nov. 4.

Another 35 people are scheduled to move in when construction on another 29 units should be complete in December, under a partnership between the province, the Halifax Regional Municipality, United Way Halifax, The Shaw Group and Dexter Construction.

The province invested $9.4 million to build the village and will contribute $935,000 annually for operating costs.

Residents have been chosen from a list of people experiencing homelessness maintained by the Affordable Housing Association of Nova Scotia.

They will pay rent that is tied to their income for a unit that is fully furnished with a private bathroom, shower and a kitchen equipped with a cooktop, small fridge and microwave.

The Atlantic Community Shelters Society will also provide support to residents, ranging from counselling and mental health supports to employment and educational services.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 24, 2024.

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Here are some facts about British Columbia’s housing market

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Housing affordability is a key issue in the provincial election campaign in British Columbia, particularly in major centres.

Here are some statistics about housing in B.C. from the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation’s 2024 Rental Market Report, issued in January, and the B.C. Real Estate Association’s August 2024 report.

Average residential home price in B.C.: $938,500

Average price in greater Vancouver (2024 year to date): $1,304,438

Average price in greater Victoria (2024 year to date): $979,103

Average price in the Okanagan (2024 year to date): $748,015

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Vancouver: $2,181

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Victoria: $1,839

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Canada: $1,359

Rental vacancy rate in Vancouver: 0.9 per cent

How much more do new renters in Vancouver pay compared with renters who have occupied their home for at least a year: 27 per cent

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 17, 2024.

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