Sports
Frank Seravalli's 31 bold predictions for the 2020-21 NHL season – TSN
Happy Hockey New Year. After 309 days, NHL regular-season hockey is back.
It’s that time again, just a little later than usual, for my annual opportunity to look like a moron. There were hits, but plenty of misses, in last year’s picks. (Definitely didn’t see that pandemic coming, either.)
In hindsight, we were probably a year early in selecting the Colorado Avalanche to win the Stanley Cup. They might have if not for losing both goaltenders in the playoffs last August.
The key is to go bold or go home. We’re not going to waste your time with the obvious.
We’re doing it a little differently this year, not requiring one selection for each team, but we’re back with 31 bold (or boneheaded) predictions for the 2020-21 NHL season:
1. The Montreal Canadiens will stand atop Canada as Kings of the North (Division) on May 8. This dynamic and creative team won’t be pushed around any longer, with some added heft in Josh Anderson and quality depth pieces throughout GM Marc Bergevin’s lineup.
2. Canucks defenceman Quinn Hughes will capture the Norris Trophy in his sophomore season, becoming the youngest winner of the award since Erik Karlsson in 2011-12. Hughes, 21, processes the game at an exceptional level and has the skill and experience to take another step this season.
3. Patrik Laine WILL be traded before the April 12 TradeCentre deadline. Feels like much will be determined by Laine’s start to a pressure-packed season. Keep an eye on two potential destinations: Columbus (Pierre-Luc Dubois?) and Carolina (Brett Pesce/Vincent Trocheck?).
4. Laine’s trade will be one of just three of consequence between Canadian and American clubs this season. With current quarantine restrictions in place in an already shortened season, the threshold for a player’s impact will have to be high in order to justify him being unavailable to his new team for a number of games.
5. The Detroit Red Wings won’t have to look very far for the No. 1-overall pick after winning the Draft Lottery. They’ll select 6-foot-5 defenceman Owen Power from just up the road in Ann Arbor at the Univ. of Michigan, redemption for dropping from one to four in the Alexis Lafreniere lottery.
6. TSN Edge™ best long shot bet this season: Sidney Crosby at 25-to-1 (+2500) to win the Hart Trophy. Because it’s not bold to pick Connor McDavid or Nathan MacKinnon.
7. Penguins GM Jim Rutherford will take home the Jim Gregory General Manager of the Year Award. Pittsburgh has improved significantly, now armed with their best defence corps in mobility and depth in years, as Rutherford has tried to do everything possible to extend the window for Crosby and Evgeni Malkin to win.
8. Carey Price will capture his second Vezina Trophy, reverting to the all-world level form that we last saw from him in 2016-17 – the last time he was a Vezina finalist. With Shea Weber, Ben Chiarot and now Joel Edmundson, Price is better insulated in Montreal than he has been in years.
9. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins will become the No. 1 target on TSN’s Top Free Agent list for 2021. There is no question fan (and team) favourite RNH wants to remain in Edmonton. But to this point, negotiations have gone in fits and starts, and the Oilers have made it clear they have no plans to go north of $7 million per year on a long-term extension.
10. Auston Matthews’ goal total in 2020-21: 40 goals. (That’s a 59-goal pace in an 82-game season and enough for the Rocket Richard.) This is his year, his moment to take another step and help carry the Maple Leafs to another level.
11. Zach Bogosian will be the Maple Leafs’ best value signing of the off-season, not Mikko Lehtonen, Wayne Simmonds or Joe Thornton. Bogosian ($1 million) was brought in to be a pure shutdown defenceman, a critical role with Toronto’s style of play.
12. That’s the number, twelve, that Alex Ovechkin’s new salary cap hit starts with next season on an extension in Washington. Sources say his initial pre-pandemic ask was $12.5 million. His current 13-year, $124 million deal will go down as one of the best contracts in pro sports history for both team and player.
13. There will be no head coaches fired in 2020-21, marking just the second all-safe season in the NHL’s expansion era (since 1967). The last was 2017-18. Now, more than half of the coaches (16) are either in their first or second season with their team – and none of the other 15 begin the campaign on the hot seat.
14. The Seattle Kraken will hire Gerard Gallant as the first coach in franchise history. No one knows better how to bring together a collection of expansion cast-offs, turning the Golden Misfits into the Golden Knights and nearly leading Vegas to the Stanley Cup in 2018.
15. Brent Burns will be the biggest name exposed in the 2021 Expansion Draft. But the Kraken’s best pickup will come from either Carolina’s blueline or one of the Lightning’s salary cap casualties left exposed.
16. Playoff teams: Calgary, Edmonton, Montreal, Toronto (North); Carolina, Columbus, Dallas, Tampa Bay (Central); N.Y. Islanders, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, Washington (East); Colorado, Minnesota, St. Louis, Vegas (West).
17. The Boston Bruins will fail to qualify for the playoffs for the first time since 2015-16. It’s a transition year for the Bruins, and someone has to fall short in the East. Boston said goodbye to Torey Krug and Zdeno Chara, plus David Pastrnak and Brad Marchand aren’t 100 per cent to start. Then there is the possible residual effect from Tuukka Rask’s departure last playoffs.
18. Based on goal total alone, the Winnipeg Jets will have the highest–scoring top–six forward group in Canada: Kyle Connor, Patrik Laine, Mark Scheifele, Blake Wheeler, Nikolaj Ehlers and Paul Stastny.
19. Another Jets prediction: Rookie defencemen Ville Heinola and Dylan Samberg will quickly overtake Derek Forbort and Nathan Beaulieu in Paul Maurice’s lineup. And Winnipeg will be much better for it.
20. Philadelphia Flyers forward Nolan Patrick will be the NHL’s comeback player of the year. Patrick, 22, last played in the NHL on April 4, 2019 – a span of nearly two full calendar years – and missed the entirety of last season with a migraine disorder. The 2017 No. 2 pick will bounce back with a 50-point pace season as an impact player in Philly.
21. The Edmonton Oilers will make a trade for a goaltender before the deadline. We believe GM Ken Holland sniffed around for one last deadline – and didn’t land his man in free agency, opting to bring back Mike Smith with Mikko Koskinen. There will be options available as teams jockey for Expansion Draft positioning.
22. One of the pillars of the Blackhawks’ three Stanley Cup championships, Duncan Keith, politely asks out of Chicago after a difficult season to chase the prize elsewhere. Keith, 37, only knows how to win. He will have two seasons left at $5.5 million.
23. Patrick Marleau retires after breaking Gordie Howe’s record for career games played of 1,767 regular season NHL contests. Marleau, 41, needs 45 games to do it. Along the way this season, he’ll pass Ron Francis (1,731), Jaromir Jagr (1,733), and Mark Messier (1,756).
24. NHL Players’ Association executive director Don Fehr will begin to implement an exit strategy. Fehr turns 73 in July and after guiding the NHLPA through two gruelling CBA negotiations, it’s a natural time to transition power after securing the players’ appearance in the 2022 Beijing Olympics.
(For the record, Fehr’s counterpart in NHL commissioner Gary Bettman, who turns 69 in June, recently said: “I’ll work as long as the owners have me.”)
25. Josh Norris will lead the Ottawa Senators in scoring. The reigning AHL Rookie of the Year will take a serious run at the Calder Trophy for NHL rookie of the year on a line with Brady Tkachuk and Drake Batherson.
26. Difficult Contract Talks Department: Rod Brind’Amour will have tense moments trying to earn market value among head coaches in Carolina. Owner Tom Dundon has drawn the line previously, saying goodbye to precious assets both on the ice and off, for talent that does not want to fit within his reimagined (lower) pay scale. Brind’Amour is one of five head coaches on expiring deals this season, including Jeff Blashill, Travis Green, Rick Tocchet and John Tortorella.
27. The NHL will consider a dual class 2021-22 Draft for prospects, expanding the number of rounds and picks available for teams. With major junior seasons in jeopardy, including next season might be the only way to give teams a fair opportunity to evaluate prospects after COVID-19 has wreaked havoc on scouting.
28. Calgary Flames blueliner Juuso Valimaki will become a stealth Calder Trophy candidate. Valimaki, 22, was ready to jump into the Flames’ top four last season but sustained a difficult knee injury. He barely meets the qualifications for the Calder, but he’s more than just a rookie – he’s one of the linchpins to Calgary’s season.
29. Discussion on adding advertisements to jerseys will be tabled. There just isn’t enough revenue yet for the NHL to grab there to make that jump worthwhile.
30. Minnesota’s Dean Evason will win the Jack Adams Award as the NHL’s coach of the year. It’s the next step in a coaching journey two decades in the making that has touched just about every level, from WHL head coach to longtime NHL assistant, to AHL head coach, now with the interim tag removed for the playoff-bound Wild.
31. The Washington Capitals will hoist the Stanley Cup for the second time in four seasons. There are no holes on this retooled Caps roster. They’ve hired a Stanley Cup caliber coach in Peter Laviolette, ooze leadership with Zdeno Chara, and a 56-game season is just the ticket for a team whose core might be getting a little long in the tooth.
Let’s gooooo.
Contact Frank Seravalli on Twitter: @frank_seravalli
Familiar Territory
James van Riemsdyk has played his fair share of playoff contests here in Toronto – but all of them have come in blue and white. On Wednesday night, he would be on the other side for the first time if he indeed makes his Bruins postseason debut, which appeared to be a strong possibility based on the Black & Gold’s morning skate.
“It’s always special to play in this building,” said van Riemsdyk, who played in 20 postseason games with Toronto, including nine at Scotiabank Arena. “In this rivalry, it’s always a lot of fun. This time of year is always amazing, no matter where you’re at – if you’re at a 500-seat arena or a rink with all the tradition and history like this. It’s always fun and always a great opportunity to get in there.”
van Riemsdyk was a healthy scratch for the first two games of this series, following a trend across the second half of the regular season, during which he sat out several games.
“Playoff time of year is always the best time of year,” said van Riemsdyk, who has 20 goals and 31 points in 71 career playoff games between Philadelphia and Toronto. “Obviously, in this rivalry, it’s always a lot of fun – two fun buildings to play in. You cherish every opportunity you get.
“This time of year, you learn that along the way, it’s all about the team. Whatever the team’s asking you to do, that’s always got to be your mindset and approach…you stay at it every day and just take it one day at a time.”
Montgomery said that if van Riemsdyk does re-enter the lineup, he’ll be looking for the veteran winger to help the Bruins’ offensive game. He also complimented van Riemsdyk’s professionalism throughout a trying second half.
“I guess getting his stick on more pucks,” Montgomery said on what he wants to see from van Riemsdyk. “We’ve talked about it a lot of times internally. Him and [Kevin] Shattenkirk have been great. They’re true pros. Every day come to work, come to get better. It’s not an easy situation, but he’s been great.”
van Riemsdyk concurred with his coach’s sentiments about helping Boston’s offensive attack, saying that he’ll be aiming to be around the net as much as possible.
“I think you’ve got to stay true to who you are as a player and play with good details and manage the game well and play to your strengths as a player,” he said. “This time of year, being around the net is always an important trait. You see all the goals being scored, it’s all within 5-10 feet of the net. That’s an area that I pride myself on, so going to be doing my best to get there and have an impact there.”
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It’s hard to say when, exactly, Alexandar Georgiev truly began to win some hearts and change some minds on Tuesday night.
Maybe it was in the back half of the second period; that was when the Colorado Avalanche, for the first time in their first-round Stanley Cup playoff series against the Winnipeg Jets, actually managed to hold a lead for more than, oh, two minutes or thereabouts. Maybe it was when the Avs walked into the locker room up 4-2 with 20 minutes to play.
Maybe it was midway through the third, when a series of saves by the Avalanche’s beleaguered starting goaltender helped preserve their two-goal buffer. Maybe it was when the buzzer sounded after their 5-2 win. Maybe it didn’t happen until the Avs made it into their locker room at Canada Life Centre, tied 1-1 with the Jets and headed for Denver.
At some point, though, it should’ve happened. If you were watching, you should’ve realized that Colorado — after a 7-6 Game 1 loss that had us all talking not just about all those goals, but at least one of the guys who’d allowed them — had squared things up, thanks in part to … well, that same guy.
Georgiev, indeed, was the story of Game 2, stopping 28 of 30 shots, improving as the game progressed and providing a lesson on how quickly things can change in the playoffs — series to series, game to game, period to period, moment to moment. The narrative doesn’t always hold. Facts don’t always cooperate. Alexandar Georgiev, for one night and counting, was not a problem for the Colorado Avalanche. He was, in direct opposition to the way he played in Game 1, a solution. How could we view him as anything else?
He had a few big-moment saves, and most of them came midway through the third period with his team up 4-2. There he was with 12:44 remaining, stopping a puck that had awkwardly rolled off Nino Niederreiter’s stick; two missed posts by the Avs at the other end had helped spring Niederreiter for a breakaway. Game 1 Georgiev doesn’t make that save.
There he was, stopping Nikolaj Ehlers from the circle a few minutes later. There wasn’t an Avs defender within five feet, and there was nothing awkward about the puck Ehlers fired at his shoulder. Game 1 Georgiev gets scored on twice.
(That one might’ve been poetic justice. It was Ehlers who’d put the first puck of the night on Georgiev — a chip from center ice that he stopped, and that the crowd in Winnipeg greeted with the ol’ mock cheer. Whoops.)
By the end of it all, Georgiev had stared down Connor Hellebuyck and won, saving nearly 0.5 goals more than expected according to Natural Stat Trick, giving the Avalanche precisely what they needed and looking almost nothing like the guy we’d seen a couple days before. Conventional wisdom coming into this series was twofold: That the Avs have firepower, high-end talent and an overall edge — slight as it may be — on Winnipeg, and that Georgiev is shaky enough to nuke the whole thing.
That wasn’t without merit, either. Georgiev’s .897 save percentage in the regular season was six percentage points below the league average, and he hadn’t broken even in expected goals allowed (minus-0.21). He’d been even worse down the stretch, putting up an .856 save percentage in his final eight appearances, and worse still in Game 1, allowing seven goals on 23 shots and more than five goals more than expected. That’s not bad; that’s an oil spill. Writing him off would’ve been understandable. Writing off Jared Bednar for rolling him out there in Game 2 would’ve been understandable. Writing the Avs off — for all of Nathan MacKinnon and Cale Makar’s greatness — would’ve been understandable.
It just wouldn’t have been correct.
The fact that this all went down now, four days into a two-month ordeal, is a gift — because the postseason thus far has been short on surprises, almost as a rule. The Rangers and Oilers are overwhelming the Capitals and Kings. The Hurricanes are halfway done with the Islanders. The Canucks are struggling with the Predators. Panthers–Lightning is tight, but one team is clearly better than the other. Bruins–Maple Leafs is a close matchup featuring psychic baggage that we don’t have time to unpack. In Golden Knights–Stars, Mark Stone came back and scored a huge goal.
None of that should shock you. None of that should make you blink.
Georgiev being good enough for Colorado, though? After what we saw in Game 1? Strange, surprising and completely true. For now.
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The LA Kings tried every trick in the book to get the Edmonton Oilers off their game last night.
Hacks after the whistle, punches to the face, and interference with line changes were just some of the things that the Oilers had to endure, and throughout it all, there was not an ounce of retaliation.
All that badgering by the Kings resulted in at least two penalties against them and fuelled a red-hot Oilers power play that made them pay with three goals on four chances. That was by design for Edmonton, who knew that LA was going to try to pester them as much as they could.
That may have worked on past Oilers teams, but not this one.
“We’ve been in a series now for the third year in a row with these guys,” Kane said after practice this morning. “We know them, they know us… it’s one of those things where maybe it makes it a little easier to kind of laugh it off, walk away, or take a shot.
“That type of stuff isn’t gonna affect us.”
EDM LAK G1. April 22, 2024. Pierre-Luc Dubois interference penalty on Connor McDavid. 🎥: Sportsnet | NHL pic.twitter.com/15zrQX3D6Q
— Nation Network Media (@NationNMedia) April 23, 2024
Once upon a time, this type of play would get under the Oilers’ skin and result in retaliatory penalties. Yet, with a few hard-knock lessons handed down to them in the past few seasons, it seems like the team is as determined as ever to cut the extracurriculars and focus on getting revenge on the scoreboard.
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, the longest-tenured player on this Oilers team, had to keep his emotions in check with Kings defender Vladislav Gavrikov, who punched him in the face early in the game. The easy reaction would be to punch back, but the veteran Nugen-Hopkins took his licks and wound up scoring later in the game.
“It’s going to be physical, the emotions are high, and there’s probably going to be some stuff after the whistle,” Nugent-Hopkins told reporters this morning. “I think it’s important to stay poised out there and not retaliate and just play through the whistles and let the other stuff just kind of happen.”
Nuge on the doorstep pots one on the power play! 🚪 pic.twitter.com/6nUeQJZASl
— Sportsnet (@Sportsnet) April 23, 2024
Oilers head coach Kris Knoblauch also noticed his team’s discipline. Playoff hockey is full of emotion, and keeping those in check to focus on the larger goal is difficult. He was happy with how his team set the tone.
“It’s not necessarily easy to do,” Knoblauch said. “You get punched in the face and sometimes the referees feel it’s enough to call a penalty, sometimes it’s not… You just have to take them, and sometimes, you get rewarded with the power play.
“I liked our guy’s response and we want to be sticking up for each other, we want to have that pack mentality, but it’s really important that we’re not the ones taking that extra penalty.”
There is no doubt that the Kings will continue to poke and prod at the Oilers as the series continues. Keeping those retaliations in check will only get more difficult, but if the team can continue to succeed on the scoreboard, it could get easier.
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