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France’s economic outlook improved over the summer despite a surge in cases of the delta variant, suggesting an increased vaccination rate may have ended the stop-go disruption of the pandemic.
Confidence surveys and high frequency indicators monitored by Insee show activity continued to near pre-pandemic levels in July and August, and should get there by the end of the year. The French statistics agency also revised its 2021 economic growth forecast to 6.25% from 6% in July.
“The really notable fact is that the recovery continued despite going through a fourth wave of the epidemic,” Insee economist Julien Pouget said.
The report on the euro area’s second largest economy sounds a note of optimism for the currency bloc, where other indicators point to a worsening outlook due to rising coronavirus cases and supply disruptions. According to a survey earlier Tuesday investor confidence in Germany fell for the fourth month in a row.
The French government held off from imposing nationwide restrictions when the number of Covid cases rose again this summer, because it intensified a vaccination campaign that now has over 77% of over-twelves fully immunized.
The introduction of a health passport to dine out or visit museums and cinemas had only a moderate impact that will likely be temporary, Insee said.
While supply bottlenecks are putting a brake on production, like in Germany, Pouget said the tensions are stabilizing in some sectors and are not that surprising in a period of sharp economic recovery. While the situation could push inflation over 2%, Insee’s surveys only show a moderate change in wages and second round effects from higher input prices.
“Our scenario sees industry and in particular automobile production partly held back by these problems between now and the end of the year,” Pouget said. “That could be a positive element if the tensions unwind in the medium term.”
TORONTO – Strength in the base metal and technology sectors helped Canada’s main stock index gain almost 100 points on Friday, while U.S. stock markets also climbed higher.
The S&P/TSX composite index closed up 93.51 points at 23,568.65.
In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 297.01 points at 41,393.78. The S&P 500 index was up 30.26 points at 5,626.02, while the Nasdaq composite was up 114.30 points at 17,683.98.
The Canadian dollar traded for 73.61 cents US compared with 73.58 cents US on Thursday.
The October crude oil contract was down 32 cents at US$68.65 per barrel and the October natural gas contract was down five cents at US$2.31 per mmBTU.
The December gold contract was up US$30.10 at US$2,610.70 an ounce and the December copper contract was up four cents US$4.24 a pound.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 13, 2024.
OTTAWA – Statistics Canada says wholesale sales, excluding petroleum, petroleum products, and other hydrocarbons and excluding oilseed and grain, rose 0.4 per cent to $82.7 billion in July.
The increase came as sales in the miscellaneous subsector gained three per cent to reach $10.5 billion in July, helped by strength in the agriculture supplies industry group, which rose 9.2 per cent.
The food, beverage and tobacco subsector added 1.7 per cent to total $15 billion in July.
The personal and household goods subsector fell 2.5 per cent to $12.1 billion.
In volume terms, overall wholesale sales rose 0.5 per cent in July.
Statistics Canada started including oilseed and grain as well as the petroleum and petroleum products subsector as part of wholesale trade last year, but is excluding the data from monthly analysis until there is enough historical data.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 13, 2024.
TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index was up more than 150 points in late-morning trading, helped by strength in the base metal and energy sectors, while U.S. stock markets were mixed.
The S&P/TSX composite index was up 172.18 points at 23,383.35.
In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was down 34.99 points at 40,826.72. The S&P 500 index was up 10.56 points at 5,564.69, while the Nasdaq composite was up 74.84 points at 17,470.37.
The Canadian dollar traded for 73.55 cents US compared with 73.59 cents US on Wednesday.
The October crude oil contract was up $2.00 at US$69.31 per barrel and the October natural gas contract was up five cents at US$2.32 per mmBTU.
The December gold contract was up US$40.00 at US$2,582.40 an ounce and the December copper contract was up six cents at US$4.20 a pound.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 12, 2024.
