Atlantic Canada’s economy has “wind in its sails” and is poised for an economic breakout, according to a new report from the Ottawa-based think-tank Public Policy Forum.
The report, entitled the Atlantic Canada Momentum Index, says that Canada’s East Coast provinces are experiencing “historic” momentum, in large part because of population growth.
“It’s ‘have not’ no more,” said president and CEO Edward Greenspon. “Atlantic Canada did lag on a number of indicators in a lot of ways for years. But that’s not true anymore.”
The think-tank measured 20 metrics, including measuring economic and population growth, level of education, immigration numbers, median age and employment rate. It based provinces’ performance on how many of these indicators improved between 2015 and 2022.
It found Atlantic Canada is performing comparably to the national average, and that it is showing a significant improvement compared to its performance from 2008 to 2015.
“I am proud,” said Wade MacLauchlan, former P.E.I. premier and one of 17 former Atlantic Canadian premiers and deputy premiers who signed on to the report.
“This is something that I and hundreds of thousands of others have worked hard for over generations. And there is a real sense of accomplishment and something on which we can build and grow.”
But some Atlantic Canadians say this report doesn’t tell the whole story: they say they’re squeezed by skyrocketing housing costs, as population growth and increased wealth creates a strain on the existing housing stock.
Edward Greenspon, President and CEO of Public Policy Forum, says that Atlantic Canada should do what it can to capitalize on recent economic growth. (Public Policy Forum)
Population propelling economic growth
Atlantic Canada’s population declined five decades in a row in proportion to the rest of Canada.
That tendency is shifting.
“For the first time, you’re beginning to see population growth,” said Greenspon.
Recent census numbers show the country’s fastest-growing cities — Halifax and Moncton — are in the Maritimes.
Much of that population growth is spurred by people like Pauline Landriault, an Ontario resident who is able to work remotely. She has a property in Nova Scotia and is hoping to move there permanently.
“There’s a lot of people who bought places here during the pandemic,” she said. “With the nature and the trails, it’s the most beautiful province in the country. It’s a hidden gem.”
The Atlantic bubble, which allowed unrestricted travel within the East Coast provinces for a period during the COVID-19 pandemic, may have also made the province attractive to people looking to relocate during the pandemic, according to former Nova Scotia premier Stephen McNeil.
Ontario resident Pauline Landriault said she’s planning a permanent move to Nova Scotia, calling the province a ‘hidden gem.’ (David Laughlin/CBC)
McNeil said his province was beginning to see more jobs creation around 2015, and shifted focus toward attracting more people back to Atlantic Canada to fill those jobs.
He said his government fought the long-held belief that Maritimers must give up career advancement aspirations if they choose to stay out East.
“We can do all the economic stuff right, but if we don’t have people, then we’re doomed,” he said. “We’re as close to New York as Toronto is, but we’re more affordable.”
Immigration is also booming in Atlantic Canada: the average number of immigrants in Atlantic Canada from 2008 to 2015 was about 7,000 per year. From 2015 to 2022, that average more than doubled, to about 15,000 immigrants per year.
The median age of Atlantic Canadians, while older than the national average, has slowed in its growth.
“There’s a growth in confidence, in population and economic activity. In many ways, this is for Atlantic Canadians, the opportunity to say after 130 years of outmigration, let’s try something else,” MacLauchlan said.
Halifax resident Melissa Gazzard receives social assistance and said the rising housing costs make it very difficult for her to find long-term housing. (David Laughlin/CBC)
With more prosperity, new challenges
Though the Public Policy Forum report does track the number of new housing builds in a region, it does not track the current costs of housing in Atlantic Canada, which have soared in recent years.
Halifax resident Melissa Gazzard relies on social assistance to pay her bills, and she said increased cost of housing has made it extremely difficult to find a long-term home.
“They’re leaving us that are out here to basically fend for ourselves,” she said. “It’s really hard. They put us in one circle, and say, ‘OK, we’ll deal with you later.’ But it never gets dealt with.”
One of the other metrics measured was access to a family physician, an area where Atlantic Canada continues to struggle.
Nearly 370,000 Atlantic Canadians don’t have a family doctor and the report shows that provinces have not made improvement in decreasing this number.
“There’s new challenges and problems. There’s problems around health care and access to physicians,” said Greenspon.
“There’s always going to be some people left behind, and policy needs to address that and make sure they don’t fall through cracks,” he said.
Former Nova Scotia premier Stephen McNeil, shown here speaking to reporters outside Province House on Oct. 13, 2020, is one of 17 former Atlantic Canadian premiers and deputy premiers who signed on to the report. (Jean Laroche/CBC)
How to keep building?
For momentum to keep growing in Atlantic Canada, it needs to be fostered, the report concludes.
“It would be negligent to let this swelling momentum pass without putting the necessary policy supports in place to perpetuate it,” it reads.
The think-tank says it will meet with policymakers to discuss policies to build on the momentum.
“The message that I think is most important is to really recognize we can raise our expectations and that we should keep going. Because this is working and it is good for us,” said MacLauchlan.
McNeil, who left office in 2021, said he expects the trend will continue upward.
“Atlantic Canada is alive and well, and quite frankly, a global player,” he said.
OTTAWA – Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland says the government is making some changes to mortgage rules to help more Canadians to purchase their first home.
She says the changes will come into force in December and better reflect the housing market.
The price cap for insured mortgages will be boosted for the first time since 2012, moving to $1.5 million from $1 million, to allow more people to qualify for a mortgage with less than a 20 per cent down payment.
The government will also expand its 30-year mortgage amortization to include first-time homebuyers buying any type of home, as well as anybody buying a newly built home.
On Aug. 1 eligibility for the 30-year amortization was changed to include first-time buyers purchasing a newly-built home.
Justice Minister Arif Virani is also releasing drafts for a bill of rights for renters as well as one for homebuyers, both of which the government promised five months ago.
Virani says the government intends to work with provinces to prevent practices like renovictions, where landowners evict tenants and make minimal renovations and then seek higher rents.
The government touts today’s announced measures as the “boldest mortgage reforms in decades,” and it comes after a year of criticism over high housing costs.
The Liberals have been slumping in the polls for months, including among younger adults who say not being able to afford a house is one of their key concerns.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 16, 2024.
OTTAWA – Statistics Canada says manufacturing sales rose 1.4 per cent to $71 billion in July, helped by higher sales in the petroleum and coal and chemical product subsectors.
The increase followed a 1.7 per cent decrease in June.
The agency says sales in the petroleum and coal product subsector gained 6.7 per cent to total $8.6 billion in July as most refineries sold more, helped by higher prices and demand.
Chemical product sales rose 5.3 per cent to $5.6 billion in July, boosted by increased sales of pharmaceutical and medicine products.
Sales of wood products fell 4.8 per cent for the month to $2.9 billion, the lowest level since May 2023.
In constant dollar terms, overall manufacturing sales rose 0.9 per cent in July.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 16, 2024.
TORONTO – Strength in the base metal and technology sectors helped Canada’s main stock index gain almost 100 points on Friday, while U.S. stock markets climbed to their best week of the year.
“It’s been almost a complete opposite or retracement of what we saw last week,” said Philip Petursson, chief investment strategist at IG Wealth Management.
In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 297.01 points at 41,393.78. The S&P 500 index was up 30.26 points at 5,626.02, while the Nasdaq composite was up 114.30 points at 17,683.98.
The S&P/TSX composite index closed up 93.51 points at 23,568.65.
While last week saw a “healthy” pullback on weaker economic data, this week investors appeared to be buying the dip and hoping the central bank “comes to the rescue,” said Petursson.
Next week, the U.S. Federal Reserve is widely expected to cut its key interest rate for the first time in several years after it significantly hiked it to fight inflation.
But the magnitude of that first cut has been the subject of debate, and the market appears split on whether the cut will be a quarter of a percentage point or a larger half-point reduction.
Petursson thinks it’s clear the smaller cut is coming. Economic data recently hasn’t been great, but it hasn’t been that bad either, he said — and inflation may have come down significantly, but it’s not defeated just yet.
“I think they’re going to be very steady,” he said, with one small cut at each of their three decisions scheduled for the rest of 2024, and more into 2025.
“I don’t think there’s a sense of urgency on the part of the Fed that they have to do something immediately.
A larger cut could also send the wrong message to the markets, added Petursson: that the Fed made a mistake in waiting this long to cut, or that it’s seeing concerning signs in the economy.
It would also be “counter to what they’ve signaled,” he said.
More important than the cut — other than the new tone it sets — will be what Fed chair Jerome Powell has to say, according to Petursson.
“That’s going to be more important than the size of the cut itself,” he said.
In Canada, where the central bank has already cut three times, Petursson expects two more before the year is through.
“Here, the labour situation is worse than what we see in the United States,” he said.
The Canadian dollar traded for 73.61 cents US compared with 73.58 cents US on Thursday.
The October crude oil contract was down 32 cents at US$68.65 per barrel and the October natural gas contract was down five cents at US$2.31 per mmBTU.
The December gold contract was up US$30.10 at US$2,610.70 an ounce and the December copper contract was up four cents US$4.24 a pound.
— With files from The Associated Press
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 13, 2024.
