Economy
From China to inflation, 5 economic trends to watch in 2023
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The global economy had a rocky year in 2022.
As the worst of COVID-19’s effects on public health receded, the war in Ukraine and China’s tough “zero COVID” curbs injected new chaos into global supply chains. Food and energy prices soared as inflation in many economies hit four-decade highs.
After a tumultuous year, the global economy heads into 2023 in choppy waters.
Russian President Vladimir Putin’s war in Ukraine continues to roil food and energy markets, while rising interest rates threaten to smother the still-fragile post-pandemic recovery.
On the positive side of the ledger, China’s reopening after three years of strict pandemic curbs offers a confidence boost for the global recovery — albeit tempered by fears that the rampant spread of the virus among the country’s 1.4 billion people could give rise to more lethal variants.
Inflation and interest rates
Inflation is expected to decline globally in 2023 but nonetheless remain painfully high.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has predicted global inflation will hit 6.5 percent next year, down from 8.8 percent in 2022. Developing economies are expected to have less relief, with inflation projected to only ease to 8.1 percent in 2023.
“It’s likely that inflation will remain stubbornly higher than the 2 percent that most Western central banks have set as their benchmark,” Alexander Tziamalis, a senior economics lecturer at Sheffield Hallam University, told Al Jazeera.
“Energy and raw materials will remain expensive for some time. The partial reversal of globalisation means more expensive imports, shortages of labour in many Western countries leads to more expensive production, and green transition measures to combat the greatest threat our species faces are all leading to higher inflation than we’ve been used to through the 2010s.”
Slowing growth and recession
While price growth is expected to ease in 2023, economic growth is certain to slow sharply alongside rising interest rates, too.
The IMF has estimated that the global economy will grow just 2.7 percent in 2023, down from 3.2 percent in 2022. The OECD has projected a less lofty performance this year of 2.2 percent growth, compared with 3.1 percent in 2022.
Many economists are more pessimistic and believe a global recession is likely in 2023, barely three years after the downturn caused by the pandemic.
In a column last month, Zanny Minton Beddoes, editor-in-chief of The Economist, painted a grim picture that was summed up by the article’s unequivocal title: “Why a global recession is inevitable in 2023”.
Even if the global economy does not technically fall into recession — broadly defined as two consecutive quarters of negative growth — the IMF’s chief economist recently warned that 2023 may still feel like one for many people due to the combination of slowing growth, high prices and rising interest rates.
“The three largest economies, the US, China and the euro area, will continue to stall,” Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas said in October. “In short, the worst is yet to come, and for many people, 2023 will feel like a recession.”
China’s reopening
After nearly three years of punishing lockdowns, mass testing and border closures, China earlier this month began the process of unwinding its controversial “zero COVID” policy after rare mass protests.
With draconian restrictions inside the country a thing of the past, China’s international borders are set to reopen from January 8.
The reopening of the world’s second-largest economy — which has slowed dramatically during the last year — should inject new momentum into the global recovery.
A rebound in Chinese consumer demand would give a boost to major exporters such as Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand and Singapore, while the end of restrictions offers relief to global brands from Apple to Tesla that suffered repeated disruptions under “zero COVID”.
At the same time, China’s rapid U-turn away from “zero COVID” carries significant risks.
While Beijing has stopped publishing COVID statistics, hospitals across China have been flooded with the sick, while morgues and crematoriums have reported being overwhelmed with the influx of bodies.
Some medical experts have estimated that China could see up to 2 million deaths in the coming months.
With the virus spreading rapidly among China’s colossal population, some health experts have also expressed concerns about the emergence of new and more dangerous variants.
“Barring this very disruptive opening up, I think that the market will do great,” Alicia Garcia-Herrero, chief economist for Asia Pacific at Natixis, told Al Jazeera.
“I would say once people see the end of the tunnel, so maybe the end of January, the end of the Chinese New Year, I would argue that’s when markets are really going to read a rapid recovery of the Chinese economy,” Garcia-Herrero added.
“The other thing to watch is if there’s a major mutation, and mutations can be either less lethal but they could also be more lethal, and I think if the latter happens, and we start seeing closures of borders again, that would be traumatic for investor confidence.”
Bankruptcies
Despite the economic devastation wrought by COVID-19 and lockdowns, bankruptcies in fact declined in many countries in 2020 and 2021 due to a combination of out-of-court arrangements with creditors and large government stimulus.
In the United States, for example, 16,140 businesses filed for bankruptcy in 2021, and 22,391 businesses did so in 2020, compared with 22,910 in 2019.
That trend is expected to reverse in 2023 amid rising energy prices and interest rates.
Allianz Trade has estimated that bankruptcies globally will rise more than 10 percent in 2022 and 19 percent in 2023, eclipsing pre-pandemic levels.
“The COVID pandemic forced many businesses to take on substantial loans, worsening a situation of increasing dependence on cheap loans to make up for the loss of Western competitiveness due to globalisation,” Tziamalis said.
“The survival of highly indebted businesses is now called into question as they face a perfect storm of higher interest rates, higher energy prices, more expensive raw materials and less consumption spending by consumers … It is also worth pointing out that the appetite of Western governments for any direct help to the private sector has been curbed by their increased deficits and prioritisation of support for households.”
Fraying globalisation
Efforts to roll back globalisation accelerated this year and look set to continue apace in 2023.
Since its launch under the Trump administration, the US-China trade and tech war has deepened under US President Joe Biden.
In August, Biden signed the CHIPS and Science Act blocking the export of advanced chips and manufacturing equipment to China — a move aimed at stifling the development of the Chinese semiconductor industry and bolstering self-sufficiency in chip making.
The passage of the law was just the latest example of a growing trend away from free trade and economic liberalisation towards protectionism and greater self-sufficiency, especially in critical industries linked to national security.
In a speech earlier this month, Morris Chang, the founder of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC), the world’s biggest chip manufacturer, lamented that globalisation and free trade are “almost dead”.
“The West, and particularly the US, are increasingly threatened by China’s economic trajectory and respond with economic and military pressure against the emerging superpower,” Tziamalis said.
“An outright war over Taiwan is highly unlikely but more expensive imports and slower growth for all countries involved in this trade war are a near certainty.”
Economy
Japanese government maintains view that economy is in moderate recovery – ForexLive
Economy
Can falling interest rates improve fairness in the economy? – The Globe and Mail
The ‘poor borrower’ narrative rules in media coverage of the Bank of Canada and high interest rates, and that’s appropriate.
A lot of people have been financially slammed by the rate hikes of the past couple of years, which have made it much more expensive to carry a mortgage, lines of credit and other borrowing. The latest from the Bank of Canada suggests rate cuts will come as soon as this summer, which on the whole would be a welcome development. It’s not just borrowers who need relief – the boarder economy has slowed to a crawl because of high borrowing costs.
But high rates are also a big win for some people. Specifically, those who have little or no debt and who have a significant amount of money sitting in savings products and guaranteed investment certificates. The country’s most well-off people, in other words.
Lower rates will mean diminished returns for savers and less interest paid by borrowers. It’s a stretch to say lower rates will improve financial inequality, but they do add a little more fairness to our financial system.
Wealth inequality is often presented as the chasm between well-off people able to pay for houses, vehicles, trips and high-end restaurant meals and those who are driving record use of food banks and living in tent cities. High interest rates and inflation have given us more nuance in wealth inequality. People fortunate enough to have bought houses in recent years are staggering as they try to manage mortgage payments that have risen by hundreds of dollars a month. You can see their struggles in rising numbers of late payments and debt defaults.
Rates are expected to fall in a measured, gradual way, which means their impact on financial inequality won’t be an instant gamechanger. But if the Bank of Canada cuts 0.25 of a percentage point off the overnight rate in June and again in July, many borrowers will start noticing how much less interest they’re paying, and savers will find themselves earning less.
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Rob’s personal finance reading list
A look at two strategies for paying off debt – the debt avalanche and the debt snowball. I’ll go with the avalanche.
How not to ruin your kitchen countertop
Anyone who has renovated a kitchen lately knows how expensive stone countertops can be. Look after yours by protecting it from a few common kitchen items.
What you need to know about stock market corrections
A helpful explanation of stock market corrections. It seems an opportune time to look at corrections, given how volatile stocks have been lately. Like scouts, investors should always be prepared.
Food inflation requires more careful grocery shopping. Here’s a roundup of food products – cookies, snacks, ice cream – that don’t taste as good as they used to. Food companies have always adjusted their recipes from time to time. Is this happening more because of inflation’s impact on raw material prices? A U.S. list – most products are available are familiar to Canadians, too.
Ask Rob
Q: I have Tangerine children’s accounts for my kids. Can you suggest a better alternative?
A: The rate on the Tangerine children’s account is 0.8 per cent, which actually compares well to the big banks and their comparable accounts. For kids aged 13 and up, check out something new called the JA Money Card.
Do you have a question for me? Send it my way. Sorry I can’t answer every one personally. Questions and answers are edited for length and clarity.
Tools and guides
A comprehensive guide on how to build a good credit score.
In the social sphere
Social Media: An offbeat way of fighting high food costs
Watch: Is now the hardest time ever to buy a home?
Money-Free Zone: Singer-songwriter Maggie Rogers has a new album called Don’t Forget Me and it’s generating some buzz because it’s a great listen. Smooth vocals and a laid back countryish vibe that hits a faster pace on one of my favourite cuts, Drunk.
More PF from The Globe
– He keeps ‘a few thousand in crisp new bills’ at home – is that a good idea?
– The pension pivot: Employers recognizing that workers need help with debt as much as retirement
– Her bond ETF is ‘a dud and not promising at all’ – should she sell?
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More Rob Carrick and money coverage
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- 📈 Investing: Canada’s top digital broker is TD Direct Investing, with an assist from the TD Easy Trade app • 2023 Globe and Mail ETF buyer’s guide part one: Canadian equity ETFs • For the ultimate in cheap investing, check out the Freedom .08 ETF Portfolio • Yes, there is risk in Canadian bank deposits for the unwary and complacent • CDIC covers bank deposits, but who protects your investments if your broker goes bust? • Answers to your questions about the low-risk ETF paying almost 5% • Happy fifth birthday to one of the all-time best investing products for everyday people • An investing strategy that wins cleanly over the long term by outperforming in bad years like 2022
- 💰 Your money: Mortgage holders, savers and GIC investors, it’s time to change your thinking on interest rates • How much debt is each generation of Canadians carrying, and how do you compare? • For the sake of their financial futures, young people should leave Toronto and Vancouver • This practical new spin on a savings account might just peel you away from your big bank • Rental fraud grows amid rise in fake, falsified tenant applications • Are Canadians worse off financially now than in the 1980s? • From groceries to auto loans, here’s how much more it costs to live right now • When saving for retirement, should you change your asset mix over the course of your career? • Do retirement income needs always rise alongside inflation? Not necessarily • When the bank suggests you lock in your variable rate mortgage, it has an angle
Economy
LIVE: Freeland joins panel on Indigenous economy – CTV News Montreal
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LIVE: Freeland joins panel on Indigenous economy CTV News Montreal
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