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German Floods Will Mean Big Things For Europe’s Climate Politics – Forbes

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Record-breaking floods have devastated Western Europe, leaving at least 170 people dead and over 1,300 unaccounted for. This catastrophe will have long-lasting implications on European – and global – politics and policies, including an impact on the forthcoming German general elections in September, and the rollout of the EU radical energy policy package that was unveiled on July 14. This includes commitments to be the first carbon-neutral continent by 2050.

The worst hit country, Germany, suffered the most casualties, with 143 confirmed dead and the toll still rising. North Rhine-Westphalia and Rhineland-Palatinate are the states which sustained the brunt of the damage, as floods swept away whole villages. The Netherlands, Switzerland, Luxembourg, Belgium, and France were also affected.

Intense rainfall over a very short period caused riverbanks to burst, inducing  flash floods and mudslides on a scale not seen in the past 100 years. Parts of Germany received between 4 and 8 inches of rain in under 24 hours – in some cases triple the monthly average. While local officials were quick to respond, initial warnings by forecasters went unheeded in the days leading up to the deluge. Necessary evacuations never took place.

Speaking on the catastrophic events, the premier of North Rhine-Westphalia (and the likely Christian Democrat Chancellor candidate in the September 2021 elections) Armin Laschet claimed the weather event was caused by global warming: “We will be faced with such events over and over, and that means we need to speed up climate production measures…because climate change isn’t defined to one state.”

According to Hannah Cloke, professor of Hydrology at the University of Reading: “The fact that other parts of the northern hemisphere are currently suffering record-breaking heatwaves and fires should serve as a reminder of just how much more dangerous our weather could become in an ever-warmer world.” Scientists tell us that heat-trapping carbon dioxide (CO2) is fueling more intense and more frequent extreme weather events.

The floods’s timing will have possibly the decisive impact on acceptance of forthcoming EU climate strategies. EU officials recently unveiled a set of sweeping legislative proposals aimed towards carbon neutrality by 2050. The main tenets include taxes on jet fuel, making air travel much more costly, development of “green” aviation fuels, requirements for countries to swiftly renovate buildings not deemed energy efficient, and tighter emissions requirements for autos, ending the sale of new internal combustion and diesel vehicles by 2035.

New environmental provisions face obstacles in being approved by the 27 states of the EU and European Parliament. However, the European commission remains confident that the plan will be adopted. Some have argued that the proposals don’t go far enough in addressing climate change, claiming that the enclosed provisions are set too low. Others, such as in Poland, fear devastating consequences for the country’s coal industry.

The floods in Western Europe come watershed moment for climate agenda in the region. Upcoming elections in Germany are likely to be most affected by fallout from the environmental devastation, potentially reviving the Green Party movement. The Greens have struggled to compete with the surging Christliche Demokratische Union (CDU), the party of the outgoing Chancellor Angela Merkel, in recent months, falling 9.5 points behind the front in opinion polls.

Despite falling poll numbers, the Greens remain the party with the highest potential to challenge CDU for majority in the Bundestag. Running primarily on a platform of energy transition, climate protection, and gender equality, the party has outlined ambitious targets that aim for German climate neutrality, halting reliance on coal by 2030. In addition, overambitious party leaders have signaled their willingness to make short-haul flights superfluous and petrol vehicles obsolete in the next ten years.

Perhaps most interesting about the Greens are their beliefs in addressing aggressive Russian and Chinese interference in European affairs. Analenna Baerbock, the designated candidate for Chancellor, remarked in April that the most important thing was “to increase pressure on Russia” after military buildups on its Eastern border with Ukraine. Later, she stated that  “If the Chinese government requires Chinese corporations such as Huawei, for example, to pass on European data and information, we cannot integrate such manufacturers into European infrastructure.”

Though Angela Merkel’s successors were expected to prevail in the September elections, the immediate and devastating nature of the recent flooding could drive swing voters towards the Greens. Destruction that has cost lives and billions of dollars in infrastructure damage will likely complement calls for immediate and radical changes to address climate change. This serves the Green party ambitions, as the other mainstream parties have not made climate a central issue of their campaigns. 

The impact of the flooding will certainly spur other established environmental movements and radicals throughout Europe to use the catastrophic events to call for far-reaching climate measures — including those that may impede growth and lower the living standard. The floods may prove to be a pivotal moment for the trajectory of European climate policy and further evolution of the Old Continent’s political direction for decades to come.

With Assistance from Liam Taylor

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Political parties cool to idea of new federal regulations for nomination contests

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OTTAWA – Several federal political parties are expressing reservations about the prospect of fresh regulations to prevent foreign meddlers from tainting their candidate nomination processes.

Elections Canada has suggested possible changes to safeguard nominations, including barring non-citizens from helping choose candidates, requiring parties to publish contest rules and explicitly outlawing behaviour such as voting more than once.

However, representatives of the Bloc Québécois, Green Party and NDP have told a federal commission of inquiry into foreign interference that such changes may be unwelcome, difficult to implement or counterproductive.

The Canada Elections Act currently provides for limited regulation of federal nomination races and contestants.

For instance, only contestants who accept $1,000 in contributions or incur $1,000 in expenses have to file a financial return. In addition, the act does not include specific obligations concerning candidacy, voting, counting or results reporting other than the identity of the successful nominee.

A report released in June by the National Security and Intelligence Committee of Parliamentarians expressed concern about how easily foreign actors can take advantage of loopholes and vulnerabilities to support preferred candidates.

Lucy Watson, national director of the NDP, told the inquiry Thursday she had concerns about the way in which new legislation would interact with the internal decision-making of the party.

“We are very proud of the fact that our members play such a significant role in shaping the internal policies and procedures and infrastructure of the party, and I would not want to see that lost,” she said.

“There are guidelines, there are best practices that we would welcome, but if we were to talk about legal requirements and legislation, that’s something I would have to take away and put further thought into, and have discussions with folks who are integral to the party’s governance.”

In an August interview with the commission of inquiry, Bloc Québécois executive director Mathieu Desquilbet said the party would be opposed to any external body monitoring nomination and leadership contest rules.

A summary tabled Thursday says Desquilbet expressed doubts about the appropriateness of requiring nomination candidates to file a full financial report with Elections Canada, saying the agency’s existing regulatory framework and the Bloc’s internal rules on the matter are sufficient.

Green Party representatives Jon Irwin and Robin Marty told the inquiry in an August interview it would not be realistic for an external body, like Elections Canada, to administer nomination or leadership contests as the resources required would exceed the federal agency’s capacity.

A summary of the interview says Irwin and Marty “also did not believe that rules violations could effectively be investigated by an external body like the Office of the Commissioner of Canada Elections.”

“The types of complaints that get raised during nomination contests can be highly personal, politically driven, and could overwhelm an external body.”

Marty, national campaign director for the party, told the inquiry Thursday that more reporting requirements would also place an administrative burden on volunteers and riding workers.

In addition, he said that disclosing the vote tally of a nomination contest could actually help foreign meddlers by flagging the precise number of ballots needed for a candidate to be chosen.

Irwin, interim executive director of the Greens, said the ideal tactic for a foreign country would be working to get someone in a “position of power” within a Canadian political party.

He said “the bad guys are always a step ahead” when it comes to meddling in the Canadian political process.

In May, David Vigneault, director of the Canadian Security Intelligence Service at the time, said it was very clear from the design of popular social media app TikTok that data gleaned from its users is available to the Chinese government.

A December 2022 CSIS memo tabled at the inquiry Thursday said TikTok “has the potential to be exploited” by Beijing to “bolster its influence and power overseas, including in Canada.”

Asked about the app, Marty told the inquiry the Greens would benefit from more “direction and guidance,” given the party’s lack of resources to address such things.

Representatives of the Liberal and Conservative parties are slated to appear at the inquiry Friday, while chief electoral officer Stéphane Perrault is to testify at a later date.

After her party representatives appeared Thursday, Green Leader Elizabeth May told reporters it was important for all party leaders to work together to come up with acceptable rules.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 19, 2024.

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New Brunswick election candidate profile: Green Party Leader David Coon

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FREDERICTON – A look at David Coon, leader of the Green Party of New Brunswick:

Born: Oct. 28, 1956.

Early years: Born in Toronto and raised in Montreal, he spent about three decades as an environmental advocate.

Education: A trained biologist, he graduated with a bachelor of science from McGill University in Montreal in 1978.

Family: He and his wife Janice Harvey have two daughters, Caroline and Laura.

Before politics: Worked as an environmental educator, organizer, activist and manager for 33 years, mainly with the Conservation Council of New Brunswick.

Politics: Joined the Green Party of Canada in May 2006 and was elected leader of the New Brunswick Green Party in September 2012. Won a seat in the legislature in 2014 — a first for the province’s Greens.

Quote: “It was despicable. He’s clearly decided to take the low road in this campaign, to adopt some Trump-lite fearmongering.” — David Coon on Sept. 12, 2024, reacting to Blaine Higgs’s claim that the federal government had decided to send 4,600 asylum seekers to New Brunswick.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 19, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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New Brunswick election profile: Progressive Conservative Leader Blaine Higgs

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FREDERICTON – A look at Blaine Higgs, leader of the Progressive Conservative Party of New Brunswick.

Born: March 1, 1954.

Early years: The son of a customs officer, he grew up in Forest City, N.B., near the Canada-U.S. border.

Education: Graduated from the University of New Brunswick with a degree in mechanical engineering in 1977.

Family: Married his high-school sweetheart, Marcia, and settled in Saint John, N.B., where they had four daughters: Lindsey, Laura, Sarah and Rachel.

Before politics: Hired by Irving Oil a week after he graduated from university and was eventually promoted to director of distribution. Worked for 33 years at the company.

Politics: Elected to the legislature in 2010 and later served as finance minister under former Progressive Conservative Premier David Alward. Elected Tory leader in 2016 and has been premier since 2018.

Quote: “I’ve always felt parents should play the main role in raising children. No one is denying gender diversity is real. But we need to figure out how to manage it.” — Blaine Higgs in a year-end interview in 2023, explaining changes to school policies about gender identity.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 19, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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