“A man’s gotta know his limitations.” – Clint Eastwood as Dirty Harry in Magnum Force (1973)
Last Wednesday, Gil Penalosa, who finished 2nd in last October’s Toronto mayoral election with 98,525 votes, announced he decided not to run in the current June 26th byelection. Instead, Gil has decided to endorse Oliva Chow in hopes of uniting the progressive votes behind her.
Currently, 50 candidates are running to be Toronto’s 66th mayor. Toronto’s next mayor will likely receive less, much less, than 20% of the vote due to the votes being split amongst 50 candidates.
Getting more votes than your opponents is all it takes to win Toronto’s first-past-the-post election. Given the large number of high-profile candidates running, there is no doubt that the winner of the upcoming Toronto byelection will win with much less than half the votes. Hence, a small number of Torontonians will have chosen Toronto’s next mayor, and the majority will be frustrated that their candidate was not elected.
There is a strong possibility that voter turnout will be low. It is most likely that on Tuesday, June 27th, Torontonians will find themselves in the hands of a mayor who, despite only receiving a fraction of the 1.9 million eligible votes, controls an annual budget of $16 billion and has veto power over the city’s councillors.
Our electoral system is indeed in need of a tune-up. However, our electoral system would not be “as broken” if the majority of eligible voters voted, resulting in more decisive elections.
I thought Gil had a good chance of winning if he focused on growing his voter base, who had just voted for him six months ago.
In case you are wondering why I thought Gil had a good chance of winning, it is because the math was in his favour.
Presume a 40% voter turnout, an increase of 10% over last October’s election. (fingers-crossed) A 40% voter turnout would result in 760,000 votes being cast. (Hopefully, I am wrong, and the voter turnout will be higher than 40%.)
Last October, Gil received 98,525 votes.
Nine candidates currently dominate this election. (Ana Bailão, Anthony Furey, Brad Bradford, Giorgio Mammoliti, Josh Matlow, Mark Saunders, Mitzie Hunter, Olivia Chow and Rob Davis). These are the candidates who are getting media attention, showing up in polls, and are likely to be invited to debates.
Assuming Gil kept his voter base from last October’s election and grew it slightly to over 100,000 votes—a possibility I would have bet on—that would leave 660,000 votes for the rest of the mayoral candidates, 41 of whom, for lack of a better word, are “marginal.”
If the 41 marginal candidates receive 5,000 votes combined, this will leave 665,000 votes to be divided among the nine currently dominating candidates, which averages 73,889 votes per candidate. Therefore, thanks to Toronto’s first-past-the-post electoral system, with 100,000 votes, Gil would win.
Before you scoff at my presumption that 41 candidates would get only 5,000 combined, look at Toronto’s 2014 election, which had 67 mayoral candidates. Combined, John Tory, Doug Ford and Olivia Chow received 952,264 votes. The remaining 64 candidates received a total of 7,913 votes.
I admit my math is overly simplistic and populated with presumptions; however, I am illustrating two points:
Vote splitting will be a significant factor in this election. It would have favoured Gil, as it will favour the nine dominating candidates, and
This election is a good argument for rank-choice voting, a topic no candidate has mentioned thus far.
50 mayoral candidates are counterproductive. Gil makes a valid point that progressive voters need to unite around one candidate and not split the votes in favour of right-leaning candidates. Likewise, right-leaning voters need to unite around one candidate to avoid splitting their votes in favour of left-leaning candidates.
As this election progresses, I am interested to see which candidates will stand out, and which voters will rally around, because they best represent left-leaning or right-leaning political ideologies. Clearly, Olivia Chow represents the left, and Mark Sauders solidly represents the right, though I wonder if Saunders has the political acumen to mobilize the right. I think Ana Bailão has a good chance of doing so.
Should Torontonians choose left and a right champion, and I expect they will, Toronto could experience a vote-splitting scenario similar to that in 2014, especially if a candidate who espouses centralist political values—a position that advocates for social equality and a lessen hierarchies of privilege while opposing proposals that alter the city’s fiscal management and policies that would benefit either the left or the right in a significant way—instead of the divisiveness the mayoral candidates have displayed so far. Toronto needs a charismatic leader capable of bringing Torontonians to a middle-ground consensus, something none of the 50 candidates has demonstrated.
By deciding not to run, Penalosa showed not only class but also showed he is not motivated by vanity. Gil knows you do not need to be elected to make a difference in your community or city. Regardless of your feelings about Gil’s endorsement of Olivia Chow, he did what he felt was in the best interest of this election and Toronto.
Not surprisingly, this election, like all elections, has its share of what I call “vanity candidates.” While a known candidate can be a vanity candidate, vanity candidates are usually unknown candidates with no political experience, nor have they done any preparatory work to be mayor of North America’s 4th most populous city. (e.g., put a team together, establish relationships with potential donors and the media, put together a platform with well-thought-out positions and suggestions costed-out, have established a healthy social media presence)
Viable mayoral candidates have:
Extensive community experience. (Shows what they care about.), and
Experience in city hall or holding a visible public office. (Being mayor of a city the size of Toronto is not a ‘learn of the job’ position.)
They also have the big three needed to run a competitive campaign:
Money
A team
Visibility
Vanity candidates believe they can simply show up on the scene and get votes, or they just want to see their name on the ballot or say they ran for mayor.
Following up on my earlier comment, “a known candidate can be a vanity candidate,” several people have asked me if I think Olivia Chow is a vanity candidate. I believe she is. I have no doubts that the media, seeking to control this election’s narrative, reporting before Chow had filed her nomination papers on several polls forecasting she would get a good deal of support, greatly influenced her decision to run.
Before running for mayor, Olivia Chow needed to know that she was still loved.
In all fairness, Chow has earned her political dues and is undeniably well-known throughout Toronto. Nevertheless, there is the question of where was Olivia Chow last October. This question—Where were you last October?—should be asked to all nine front-running candidates. Did Chow not feel Toronto needed her last year? Maybe her people told her Torontonians preferred John Tory to her.
Vanity candidates know who they are and have become as much a part of our political life as selfies and cheesy smartphone videos. Vanity candidates with little to offer voters attack their opponents’ platforms and proposals, a strategy that never results in votes. Vote splitting is not a concern for vanity candidates.
Gil Penalosa read the room and decided he would not be another vanity candidate, for which we should applaud him.
Every Torontonian following this byelection knows the elephant in the room: Too many candidates are running!
Many candidates need to drop out. Every candidate claims they care about Toronto’s future; at least, that is what they want Torontonians to believe. If this is true, then now is the time to set aside their respective ego, self-reflect on their chances of winning this byelection, and honestly read the room, as Gil did.
Candidates, especially marginal ones, should take a page from Gil’s playbook and volunteer for a front-running candidate that aligns with their values and vision for Toronto. (A great way to gain experience and visibility.)
Unless the field of mayoral candidates decreases to 10-15 candidates or Torontonians unite around 3-5 candidates, this election will be an election where Toronto’s next mayor will be grossly unrepresentative of the leadership most Torontonians want in city hall.
Friday, May 12th @ 2:00 PM is the deadline for candidates to withdraw their candidacy so their names do not appear on the ballot.
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Nick Kossovan, a self-described connoisseur of human psychology, writes about what’s on his mind from Toronto. You can follow Nick on Twitter and Instagram @NKossovan
TAMPA, Fla. (AP) — The Tampa Bay Lightning selected Victor Hedman as the team captain on Wednesday as training camp opened, making the big defenseman the successor to Steven Stamkos.
Hedman, who is going into his 16th season with Tampa Bay, was considered the obvious choice to get the “C” after the Lightning did not re-sign Stamkos and their longtime captain left to join Nashville.
“Victor is a cornerstone player that is extremely well respected by his teammates, coaches and peers across the NHL,” general manager Julien BriseBois said. “Over the past 15 seasons, he has been a world-class representative for our organization both on and off the ice. Victor embodies what it means to be a member of the Tampa Bay Lightning and is more than ready for this exciting opportunity. We are looking forward to watching him flourish in his new role as we continue to work towards our goal of winning the Stanley Cup.”
The 33-year-old from Sweden was a key contributor in the Lightning hoisting the Cup back to back in 2020 and ’21, including playoff MVP honors on the first of those championship runs. Hedman also took home the Norris Trophy as the NHL’s top defenseman in 2018 and finished in the top three in voting five other seasons.
Ryan McDonagh, who was reacquired early in the offseason in a trade with the Predators, and MVP finalist Nikita Kucherov will serve as alternate captains with the Lightning moving on to the post-Stamkos era.
TORONTO – While Toronto FC is looking to improve its position on the pitch, general manager Jason Hernandez is trying to do the same off it.
That has been easier said than done this season.
Sending winger Jahkeele Marshall-Rutty to CF Montreal for up to $1.3 million (all dollar figures in U.S. funds) in general allocation money before the secondary transfer window closed in early August helped set the stage for future moves.
But there have been plenty of obstacles, which Hernandez has been working to clear.
“We feel a lot more confident going into this upcoming off-season that we did the one prior,” said Hernandez. “There’s a level of what I would say booby-traps that were uncovered when I first got the (GM) role at the end of last summer.”
The club is paying off departed forwards Adam Diomande and Ayo Akinola as well as a $500,000 payment due in 2024 to Belgium’s Anderlecht for Jamaican international defender Kemar Lawrence. That payment was part of the transfer fee for Lawrence, who joined TFC from Anderlecht in May 2021 and was traded to Minnesota United in March 2022.
Diomande was waived while Akinola’s contract was terminated by mutual agreement.
“That comes to an end in ’25, which is nice,” said Hernandez. “We had to suffer from a salary cap perspective this season. But those things coming off, the Jahkeele Marshall-Rutty money coming in, we’re going to be in a position to make some good additions, which is positive.”
While MLS clubs are allowed one contract buyout per year, Toronto had already used its on former captain Michel Bradley, who retired after last season. Bradley had previously restructured his contract, deferring money.
TFC’s only other move during the summer transfer window was the signing of free-agent defender Henry Wingo. Hernandez said the club knew going into the window that it was likely limited to the one acquisition “unless other business happened”
“We knew we had this bucket of money and we knew we were going to go get Henry,” said Hernandez.
While the sale of the highly touted Marshall-Rutty opened up other possibilities, it came on the eve of the transfer window closing. And the team did not like what it saw in the free-agent market.
“A lot of the opportunities we were presented in the free agency space felt more like a short-term, Band-Aid decision versus what actually the club probably needs.”
Hernandez was not willing to take in players who came with a “club-friendly” salary cap charge in 2024 and a much bigger number in 2025.
Instead, Toronto promoted forward Charlie Sharp and wingback Nate Edwards to the first team from TFC 2 ahead of last Friday’s roster freeze.
MLS teams are operating on a salary budget of $5.47 million this season, which covers up to 20 players on the senior roster (clubs can elect to spread that number across 18 players). But the league has several mechanisms that allow those funds to go further, including using allocation money (both general and targeted) to buy down salaries.
Designated players only count $683,750 — the maximum salary charge — against the cap no matter their actual pay. Toronto’s Lorenzo Insigne is actually earning $15.4 million with fellow Italian Federico Bernardeschi collecting $6.295 million and Canadian Richie Laryea $1.208 million.
Hernandez says Laryea’s contract can — and “very likely” will — be restructured so as to remove the designated player status.
There are benefits in going with just two designated players rather than three.
Teams that elect to go with two DPs can sign up to four players as part of the league’s “U22 Initiative.” The pluses of that structure include a reduced salary cap charge for the young players and up to an extra $2 million in general allocation money.
Hernandez says the club is currently pondering whether that is the way to go.
Captain Jonathan Osorio who is earning $836,370 this season, restructured his deal to allow the team to sign Laryea as a DP. In doing so, Osorio had his option year guaranteed so his contact runs through 2026.
Hernandez and coach John Herdman will have decisions to make come the end of the year.
The contracts of goalkeeper Greg Ranjitsingh ($94,200), defenders Kevin Long ($277,500), Shane O’Neill ($413,000) and Kobe Franklin ($100,520), midfielder Alonso Coello ($94,050) and Brandon Servania ($602,710), and forward Prince Owusu ($807,500) — all on the club’s senior roster — expire at the end of 2024 with club options to follow.
While there is more work to do, Hernandez believes TFC is on the right road.
Toronto, which finished last in the league at 4-20-10 in 2023, went into Wednesday’s game against visiting Columbus in a playoff position at eighth in the East at 11-15-3.
“By every metric, we are miles ahead of where we were at this point last year,” said Hernandez.
“That’s a low bar, so that’s not saying much,” he added.
But he believes TFC is “quite competitive” when it has all its players at its disposal.
“To get results in this final stretch, we’re going to need our prominent players to really show up and have big performances, and be supported by the rest of the cast.”
After Columbus, TFC plays at Colorado and Chicago and hosts the New York Red Bulls and Inter Miami. The club also travels to Vancouver for the Canadian Championship final.
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This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 18, 2024
Mackenzie Hughes might just be what the International team needs as this year’s Presidents Cup.
Hughes, from Dundas, Ont., is one of three Canadians on the squad competing in the match-play event at Royal Montreal Golf Club next week.
His putting skills, cool demeanour under pressure, pre-existing connections with teammates and clubhouse leadership could help the team — made up of non-American players outside Europe — end a nine-tournament losing skid to the United States at the biennial event.
“I’ve had this one circled on the calendar for a few years now,” said Hughes on joining fellow Canadians Taylor Pendrith and Corey Conners as captain’s picks on the 12-player International team. “I pretty much knew that when it was announced the tournament would be in Canada and that Mike Weir was going to be the captain, you pretty much knew where that was going to go.
“To get that call from (Weir) is really special because he’s the guy that I looked up to, we all looked up to, as Canadian golfers.”
Pendrith and Conners are returning to the team after a disappointing 17 1/2 to 12 1/2 loss to the United States at Quail Hollow Club in Charlotte, N.C. in 2022.
Hughes was ranked 14th on the International team standings in 2022 and could have easily been included on that squad after Australia’s Cameron Smith and Chile’s Joaquin Niemann were ruled ineligible after jumping ship to the rival LIV Golf circuit.
However, captain Trevor Immelman of South Africa instead chose the lower ranked Christiaan Bezuidenhout (16th) of South Africa, Pendrith (18th), South Korea’s Kim Si-woo (20th) and Australia’s Cameron Davis (25th).
“I certainly wanted to be on that team but also I understood the picks,” said Hughes, who lives in Charlotte and plays at Quail Hollow regularly. “I think that like a lot of guys that don’t get picked you more so look back on your own play and I wish I had made that selection easier for them.
“I didn’t do myself any favours in the six weeks leading up to it and that’s a hard pill to swallow.”
It may have been a costly oversight on Immelman’s part, as finishing holes was an issue for the International team in 2022 and Hughes is one of the best putters on the PGA Tour. This season he’s third in shots gained around the green and fifth in shots gained from putting.
“It doesn’t mean that just because I was there it would have turned the tide, but I’d like to think maybe I could have helped,” said Hughes. “That’s why you play the matches. You have to get out there and do it.”
This year Hughes made it easier for Weir, the Canadian golf legend from Brights Grove, Ont., to choose him. Hughes is 51st in the FedEx Cup Fall standings and has made the cut seven tournaments in a row, including a tie for fourth at last week’s Procore Championship.
“Mac played very solidly all year. Really like his short game, an all-around short game,” said Weir on Sept. 3 after announcing his captain’s picks. “He’s one of the elite and best short game guys on the PGA Tour
“I also love Mac’s grit. So that was the reason I picked him.”
Hughes’s intangible qualities go beyond grit.
He, Pendrith and Conners will arrive at Royal Montreal as a unit within the International squad, having become close friends while playing on Kent State University’s men’s golf team before turning pro. They’re also part of a group of Canadians, including Nick Taylor and Adam Hadwin of Abbotsford, B.C., that regularly practice together before PGA Tour events.
“To have those guys with me is really icing on the cake, it’s very special,” said Hughes. “Opportunities like this don’t come around very often: to play this kind of team competition, which is already hard to do, but to play with some of your best friends, it almost seems scripted.”
An 11-year professional, Hughes has also been a member of the PGA Tour’s player advisory council the past two years and has been an outspoken advocate for making professional golf more accessible to fans.
Although Weir relied heavily on analytics to make his captain’s selections, Hughes’s character came up again and again when asked why he was named to the team.
“I just have a gut feeling with Mac that he has what it takes in these big moments,” said Weir. “They’re big pressure moments, and I have a feeling he’s going to do great in those moments.”
DP WORLD TOUR — Aaron Cockerill of Stony Mountain, Man., continues his chase for a spot in the Europe-based DP World Tour’s playoffs. The top 50 players on the Race to Dubai standings make the DP World Tour Championship and Cockerill moved eight spots up to 39th in the rankings after tying for ninth at last week’s Irish Open. He’ll be back at it on Thursday at the BMW PGA Championship at the Wentworth Club in Surrey, England.
KORN FERRY TOUR — Myles Creighton of Digby, N.S., is ranked 38th on the second-tier Korn Ferry Tour’s points list. He leads the Canadian contingent into this week’s Nationwide Children’s Hospital Championship. He’ll be joined at Ohio State University Golf Club — Scarlet Course in Columbus, Ohio by Edmonton’s Wil Bateman (53rd), Etienne Papineau (65th) of St-Jean-Sur-Richelieu, Que., and Sudarshan Yellamaraju (99th) of Mississauga, Ont.
CHAMPIONS TOUR — Calgary’s Stephen Ames is the lone Canadian at this week’s Pure Insurance Championship. He’s No. 2 on the senior circuit’s points list. The event will start Friday and be played at Pebble Beach Golf Links and Spyglass Hill Golf Course in Monterey, Calif.
LPGA TOUR — There are four Canadians in this week’s Kroger City Championship. Savannah Grewal (97th in the Race to CME Globe Rankings) of Mississauga, Ont., Hamilton’s Alena Sharp (115th), and Maude-Aimee Leblanc (142nd) of Sherbrooke, Que., will all tee it up at TPC River’s Bend in Maineville, Ohio.
EPSON TOUR — Vancouver’s Leah John is the low Canadian heading into the Murphy USA El Dorado Shootout. She’s 54th in the second-tier tour’s points list. She’ll be joined by Maddie Szeryk (118th) of London, Ont., and Brigitte Thibault (119th) of Rosemere, Que., at Mystic Creek Golf Club in El Dorado, Ark.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 18, 2024.
