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Economy

Global rally fades, but investors' hopes remain for economy – The Tri-City News

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Shares were mostly higher Wednesday in Asia after a worldwide rally spurred by hopes that a COVID-19 vaccine will help the global economy return to normal.

Benchmarks advanced in Tokyo, Seoul and Sydney but edged lower in Hong Kong and Shanghai, where new Chinese regulations focused on technology companies prompted selling in that sector.

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The proposed regulations issued Monday for public comment give guidelines on how China’s 2008 anti-monopoly law will be applied to internet companies. The announcement gave no indication operators are accused of wrongdoing but cited areas where regulators might look for problems including sharing of information and alliances or pricing services below cost to keep out new competitors.

As of midday, e-commerce giant Alibaba’s shares had fallen 7.3% and Tencent, owner of the popular WeChat social media platform, had lost 5% and online retailer JD.com was down 6.2%.

In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng lost 0.2% to 26,241.52 and the Shanghai Composite index declined 0.2% to 3,356.88.

But other regional markets were mostly higher. Japan’s Nikkei 225 index gained 1.2% to 25,197.68 and the S&P/ASX 200 advanced 1.3% to 6,419.50. South Korea’s Kospi rose 0.7% to 2,470.11.

On Wall Street, stocks downshifted on Tuesday after a powerful worldwide rally the day before. It was the second straight day that rising hopes for a COVID-19 vaccine pushed investors to reorder which stocks they see winning and losing.

Treasury yields and oil held onto their big gains from a day earlier or added some more amid strengthened confidence in the economy.

The S&P 500 dipped 0.1% to 3,545.53, after erasing most of an early loss. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.9% to 29,420.92 and the Nasdaq composite dropped 1.4%, to 11,553.86.

The flashpoint for all the moves was Monday’s announcement from Pfizer that a potential COVID-19 vaccine it’s developing with German partner BioNTech may be 90% effective, based on early but incomplete test results.

Stocks of smaller U.S. companies, which tend to move more with expectations for the economy than their bigger counterparts, rallied again. The Russell 2000 index of small-cap stocks gained 1.9% to 1,737.01, finally returning to where it was in January. It’s just 0.2% below its record high set in 2018.

Several areas of the market that have been beaten down through the pandemic and whose low prices make them look like potentially better values led the way. Energy stocks in the S&P 500 rose 2.5% for the best gain among the 11 sectors that make up the index, for example, though they’re still down nearly 44% for 2020.

Big Tech stocks that carried the stock market through the pandemic, meanwhile, are suddenly facing more scrutiny for their high prices. Their stocks soared through 2020 on expectations they’ll continue to thrive if the economy is in lockdown mode. But that’s left their prices looking expensive even after accounting for their huge profits.

Amazon, which is one of those Big Tech stay-at-home winners, fell 3.5%. It also is facing antitrust charges filed by European Union regulators on Tuesday that accuse it of using its access to data to gain an unfair advantage over merchants using its platform.

Microsoft fell 3.4%, and Facebook lost 2.3%. Those drops have outsized effects on the S&P 500 because they’re some of the largest companies in the index by market value.

The S&P 500 is already up 8.4% in November, helped by hopes for a coronavirus vaccine and clearing uncertainty about U.S. leadership after Democrat Joe Biden clinched the last of the 270 electoral votes needed to become the next president. Republicans, meanwhile, appear likely to keep control of the Senate.

Some analysts are speaking of a “Goldilocks” scenario where low tax rates and other pro-business policies remain while a more stable and predictable set of policies comes out of the White House.

Many risks remain, and the biggest may be whether investors have become too convinced about a potential COVID-19 vaccine.

Coronavirus counts continue to surge at worrying rates across the U.S. and Europe. prompting some governments to restore restrictions on businesses.

“The biggest downside risk remains COVID and how severe this wave is going to be,” Craig Erlam of Oanda said in a commentary. “COVID is impossible to ignore, particularly with cases soaring once again and deaths on the rise.”

With fresh help for the U.S. economy from Congress still undecided, pressure is on central banks to step up support for markets.

“In fact, the end of this year could provide the perfect cocktail of widespread monetary and fiscal easing, combined with one or more vaccines,” he said.

President Donald Trump’s refusal to concede and co-operate with Biden’s transition team is another source of uncertainty, especially as some Republicans including Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell rally behind Trump’s efforts to fight the election results.

Still, optimism remains across markets.

The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 0.98% from 0.95%, close to its highest level since March.

Benchmark U.S. crude oil gained 33 cents to $41.69 per barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It rose 2.7% to settle at $41.36 per barrel on Tuesday. Brent crude, the international standard, picked up 28 cents to $43.89 per barrel.

In currency dealings, the dollar weakened to 105.02 Japanese yen from 105.31 yen late Tuesday. The euro rose to $1.1825 from $1.1820.

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AP Business Writer Joe McDonald contributed.

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Economy

Biden's Hot Economy Stokes Currency Fears for the Rest of World – Bloomberg

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As Joe Biden this week hailed America’s booming economy as the strongest in the world during a reelection campaign tour of battleground-state Pennsylvania, global finance chiefs convening in Washington had a different message: cool it.

The push-back from central bank governors and finance ministers gathering for the International Monetary Fund-World Bank spring meetings highlight how the sting from a surging US economy — manifested through high interest rates and a strong dollar — is ricocheting around the world by forcing other currencies lower and complicating plans to bring down borrowing costs.

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Opinion: Higher capital gains taxes won't work as claimed, but will harm the economy – The Globe and Mail

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Open this photo in gallery:

Canada’s Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland hold the 2024-25 budget, on Parliament Hill in Ottawa, on April 16.Patrick Doyle/Reuters

Alex Whalen and Jake Fuss are analysts at the Fraser Institute.

Amid a federal budget riddled with red ink and tax hikes, the Trudeau government has increased capital gains taxes. The move will be disastrous for Canada’s growth prospects and its already-lagging investment climate, and to make matters worse, research suggests it won’t work as planned.

Currently, individuals and businesses who sell a capital asset in Canada incur capital gains taxes at a 50-per-cent inclusion rate, which means that 50 per cent of the gain in the asset’s value is subject to taxation at the individual or business’s marginal tax rate. The Trudeau government is raising this inclusion rate to 66.6 per cent for all businesses, trusts and individuals with capital gains over $250,000.

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The problems with hiking capital gains taxes are numerous.

First, capital gains are taxed on a “realization” basis, which means the investor does not incur capital gains taxes until the asset is sold. According to empirical evidence, this creates a “lock-in” effect where investors have an incentive to keep their capital invested in a particular asset when they might otherwise sell.

For example, investors may delay selling capital assets because they anticipate a change in government and a reversal back to the previous inclusion rate. This means the Trudeau government is likely overestimating the potential revenue gains from its capital gains tax hike, given that individual investors will adjust the timing of their asset sales in response to the tax hike.

Second, the lock-in effect creates a drag on economic growth as it incentivizes investors to hold off selling their assets when they otherwise might, preventing capital from being deployed to its most productive use and therefore reducing growth.

Budget’s capital gains tax changes divide the small business community

And Canada’s growth prospects and investment climate have both been in decline. Canada currently faces the lowest growth prospects among all OECD countries in terms of GDP per person. Further, between 2014 and 2021, business investment (adjusted for inflation) in Canada declined by $43.7-billion. Hiking taxes on capital will make both pressing issues worse.

Contrary to the government’s framing – that this move only affects the wealthy – lagging business investment and slow growth affect all Canadians through lower incomes and living standards. Capital taxes are among the most economically damaging forms of taxation precisely because they reduce the incentive to innovate and invest. And while taxes on capital gains do raise revenue, the economic costs exceed the amount of tax collected.

Previous governments in Canada understood these facts. In the 2000 federal budget, then-finance minister Paul Martin said a “key factor contributing to the difficulty of raising capital by new startups is the fact that individuals who sell existing investments and reinvest in others must pay tax on any realized capital gains,” an explicit acknowledgment of the lock-in effect and costs of capital gains taxes. Further, that Liberal government reduced the capital gains inclusion rate, acknowledging the importance of a strong investment climate.

At a time when Canada badly needs to improve the incentives to invest, the Trudeau government’s 2024 budget has introduced a damaging tax hike. In delivering the budget, Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland said “Canada, a growing country, needs to make investments in our country and in Canadians right now.” Individuals and businesses across the country likely agree on the importance of investment. Hiking capital gains taxes will achieve the exact opposite effect.

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Nigeria's Economy, Once Africa's Biggest, Slips to Fourth Place – Bloomberg

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Nigeria’s economy, which ranked as Africa’s largest in 2022, is set to slip to fourth place this year and Egypt, which held the top position in 2023, is projected to fall to second behind South Africa after a series of currency devaluations, International Monetary Fund forecasts show.

The IMF’s World Economic Outlook estimates Nigeria’s gross domestic product at $253 billion based on current prices this year, lagging energy-rich Algeria at $267 billion, Egypt at $348 billion and South Africa at $373 billion.

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