By Simon Jessop
LONDON (Reuters) – Global shares fell and the dollar hit a two-month high on Thursday on investor concern about another economic hit from the coronavirus pandemic, ahead of key U.S. jobless data and comments from the head of the Federal Reserve.
After a summer lull in much of Europe, the infection rate has begun to rise sharply, with a number of countries including Britain introducing tougher rules to help limit the spread of the virus.
Fears that a market rebound in recent months had gone too far held stocks back, although positive German and French business sentiment data helped pare European losses slightly as did U.S. stock futures pointing to a flat open.
The MSCI World .MIWD00000PUS> index was down 0.5% at 1018 GMT, its fifth day in the red out of the last six and hovering near a two-month low. A broad gauge of Europe’s top shares, the STOXX Europe 600 .STOXX>, was down 0.4%.
S&P 500 futures were flat nearing midday, holding steady after falls in the prior session after economic warnings from U.S. Federal Reserve officials.
That had, in turn, helped tee up weakness overnight in Asia with Asia Pacific shares outside Japan .MIAPJ0000PUS> down 1.99% to chalk up their worst day in two months.
“Optimism on the recovery, optimism on the virus, and bets on stimulus were keeping markets well bid, and on all three of these issues, there has been a degree of disappointment this month,” said John Velis, an FX and macro strategist at BNY Mellon.
High-grade euro zone government bond yields fell across the board on an expectation that stimulus measures would be maintained, with the German 10-year down 2.2 basis points. The U.S. 10-year was dowm 0.5 basis points.
Despite markets betting on more U.S. fiscal stimulus, political stalemate in Washington continues to frustrate efforts to prop up the world’s biggest economy, beset by one of the worst COVID-19 death rates globally.
“A U.S. fiscal deal was baked into markets and now what you are seeing is that the probability of a deal going through has simply reversed,” said Justin Onuekwusi, a London-based portfolio manager at Legal and General Investment Management.
“We have heard this week how important a fiscal deal is to the Federal Reserve but from a political standpoint, focus has moved more towards the election and Supreme Court deliberations rather than the economy,” he added.
Flows into the dollar =USD> helped it rise for a fourth straight day. Although gains had been pared slightly from the open, it remains on track to record its longest streak of daily gains since June.
The slight perk-up in sentiment helped Brent crude futures recover early losses to trade flat at $41.80 a barrel although gold remained lower, down 0.6% and on course for a fourth day of losses that total nearly 7%.
The euro was flat at $1.1658.
With central bankers in focus globally, U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will be closely watched later in the day when he testifies before the Senate Banking Committee, while other Fed officials are scheduled to speak at other events during the day.
Investors are also waiting for weekly data due later on Thursday, which is expected to show U.S. jobless claims fell slightly but remained elevated, indicating the world’s largest economy is far from recovering.
A similar picture was visible in Europe, where the European Central Bank’s latest Economic Bulletin said unemployment would continue to rise in the euro zone, with little growth in demand seen for consumer goods.
Elsewhere among regional ratesetters, the Swiss National Bank maintained its easy monetary policy, but turned less gloomy on the impact of the pandemic. In Britain, meanwhile, the finance minister launched a new jobs support scheme.
In emerging markets, Turkey surprised markets with a hike in its policy rate by 200 basis points to 10.25%, sending the lira and bonds higher. Mexico is also set to decide on monetary policy later on Thursday.
MSCI’s Emerging Markets Index .MSCIEF> was down 1.8%.
(Graphic: COVID-19 new daily cases – https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/mkt/gjnvwjjbbpw/Pasted%20image%201600941249476.png)
(Additional reporting by Imani Moise in New York, Marc Jones, Saikat Chatterjee and Sujata Rao in London; Editing by John Stonestreet, Andrew Heavens and Chizu Nomiyama)
Britain's economic recovery faltering, Bank of England to step up spending: Reuters poll – TheChronicleHerald.ca
By Jonathan Cable
LONDON (Reuters) – The Bank of England is likely to supplement its quantitative easing war chest next month to offer more support to an economy still struggling amid coronavirus restrictions on activity and fears of a no-deal Brexit, a Reuters poll found.
Surging coronavirus infection numbers have pushed the government to tighten curbs across swathes of the country to try to stop the spread. More areas face tougher lockdowns in coming days.
A national lockdown earlier this year that forced businesses to close and citizens to stay home meant the UK economy contracted an historic 19.8% in the second quarter.
While the Oct. 13-19 poll predicted 16.7% growth last quarter, the outlook has darkened. The economy is expected to expand 2.6% this quarter and 1.0% next – weaker than the respective 3.4% and 1.3% median forecasts given last month.
For all of 2020, the economy will contract 10.1% but expand 6.1% next year, according to the poll of 78 economists, compared with the respective -10.0% and +6.1% forecasts given last month.
“The resurgence of COVID-19 across the UK and the resulting restrictions mean the recovery is set to stall. It now looks fairly inevitable that the Monetary Policy Committee will top-up its asset purchase programme,” said James Smith at ING.
With Bank Rate already at a record low of 0.10%, and 59 of 64 economists who responded to an extra question saying the MPC would not take it below zero, the focus will be on bond buying, or quantitative easing.
Having added 300 billion pounds to the programme earlier this year, taking its total projected spend on gilts to 725 billion pounds, the median forecast in the poll was for a 100 billion pound top-up on Nov. 5.
“That would give policymakers scope to continue making purchases until early summer next year if the pace of purchases stays broadly similar,” ING’s Smith said.
Bank Rate was not expected to move until 2023 at least and only two of the 68 economists polled expected any change next month.
London said on Monday the door was still open if the European Union wanted to make some small concessions to save Brexit trade talks but unless the bloc budged there would be a no-deal exit in 10 weeks.
Britain’s informal EU membership – known as the transition period – ends on Dec. 31.
“Enough progress has been made to keep the talks alive so that negotiators return to the table and a deal will eventually be done and be in place by the end of the year,” said Liz Martins at HSBC.
The latest Reuters poll gave a median 40% chance no deal is made, unchanged from last month, and as in all Reuters polls since the June 2016 decision to leave the bloc, it said the most likely outcome was still some form of free trade agreement.
“It remains in everyone’s interest to avoid a no-deal outcome,” said Peter Dixon at Commerzbank.
“The economic headwinds posed by COVID-19 will exacerbate the costs of a no-deal Brexit, and the British government would be wise to do whatever is necessary to avoid it.”
(Reporting by Jonathan Cable; polling by Sarmista Sen and Swathi Nair; Editing by Hugh Lawson)
The Economy Is Driving Women Out Of The Workforce And Some May Not Return : Consider This from NPR – NPR
Women are dropping out of the workforce in much higher numbers than men. Valerie Wilson of the Economic Policy Institute explains that women are overrepresented in jobs that have been hit hardest by the pandemic and child care has gotten harder to come by.
The situation is especially dire for Latina women, as NPR’s Brianna Scott reports. Last month, out of 865,000 women who left the workforce, more than 300,000 were Latina.
Victoria de Francesco Soto of the University of Texas at Austin explains why it’s not just the pandemic economy hurting women. Some may be left out of the recovery, too.
Email us at email@example.com.
This episode was produced by Brianna Scott, Lee Hale and Brent Baughman. It was edited by Sami Yenigun with help from Wynne Davis. Our executive producer is Cara Tallo.
China just became the first country to grow its economy after Covid-19. What lessons can the U.S. learn? – NBC News
Chinese officials announced this week that the country’s economy grew by 4.9 percent in the third quarter, a positive sign from the initial Covid-19 epicenter. Some of the rebound in the world’s second-largest economy is due to containment measures that would be hard to replicate or enforce in a democracy — but there are still lessons the United States can learn.
“It’s not clear, really, that is this a credible number,” said Jacob Kirkegaard, senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics. “It’s just not credible in my opinion, unless you assume some very significant productivity improvement,” he said, since some metrics of industrial activity were weaker than the official GDP growth figures would indicate.
Alicia Garcia Herrero, chief economist, Asia Pacific at Natixis, noted that retail sales figures, although improving, remain lower than they were a year ago, and private sector investment remains depressed.
“The challenge ahead is whether, and to what extent, household disposable income could be further lifted to speed up consumption,” she said, as well as sustaining an export-driven manufacturing recovery in an environment where global demand remains slack.
But even the economists who doubt Beijing’s numbers agree that China’s economy is on the rebound. The IMF estimated that its GDP will grow by 1.9 percent for all of 2020, the only major economy to inch back into positive territory in a year that saw economies around the globe tumble sharply.
China’s economic improvements “would not have been possible if China was suffering from the same second waves of the virus we’re seeing in most parts of the developed world.”
“China’s success so far in preventing small clusters of Covid-19 from eruption controllably certainly was key to the economy retaining positive growth momentum in Q3,” Chanco said, adding that these improvements “would not have been possible if China was suffering from the same second waves of the virus we’re seeing in most parts of the developed world.”
To an extent, China’s success containing and mitigating the spread of the coronavirus is the result of an authoritarian government and surveillance state that had the autonomy to impose sweeping lockdowns, prohibit travel and mandate contact tracing protocols.
“There’s no doubt that the Chinese government has had tools at its disposal that you don’t have in a democracy. You can’t force everyone to download a tracing app and literally lock up thousands who are infected,” Kirkegaard said.
He also pointed out, though, that places like Taiwan and New Zealand have also succeeded in largely eradicating the spread of Covid-19. “It’s not true that it’s only dictatorships that can do this,” he said.
The difference lies in a coordinated central response, a willingness to funnel resources where needed and adherence to public health experts’ recommendations, experts said.
Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, said early and decisive government action made all the difference in Australia, China, New Zealand, Singapore and South Korea. Aggressive lockdowns and cautious reopening protocols — including mandatory contact tracing and enforcement of quarantine directives — cut community spread.
“The benefits of mask-wearing and social distancing have also been taken as scientific givens, and not as subjects for political debate,” Zandi added.
Unlike the Trump administration’s crusade against increased testing, countries that have successfully contained the virus scaled up their ability to test large portions of their populations.
“They poured massive resources into testing and tracing,” Kirkegaard said. “They never doubted science and they never really had this idea that there was some sort of trade-off between the virus and the severity of the lockdown.”
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