Gold price 'dodges a bullet,' but is there a chance for a breakout? | Canada News Media
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Gold price ‘dodges a bullet,’ but is there a chance for a breakout?

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(Kitco News) Gold staged a solid rally Friday as markets increased bets on a slower tightening cycle from the Federal Reserve following the November meeting. Analysts are now paying close attention to next week’s U.S. Q3 GDP data and earnings reports to get a better glimpse into the state of the U.S. economy.

December gold futures rallied more than $20 on the day and last traded at $1,657.80 an ounce after hitting a new two-year low and almost breaching the key support level at $1,620 earlier in the week.

The move higher was triggered by the market reexamining its rate hike expectations after The Wall Street Journal reported that the Fed would debate the size of future rate hikes following its widely-expected 75-basis-point increase in November.

“The idea that we could see the Fed debate whether or not they should downshift into a slower pace of tightening really excited investors,” OANDA senior market analyst Edward Moya told Kitco News.

Prior to Friday’s news, markets were looking for a 75 bps hike in November and another 75 bps in December. Now, if the Fed does debate, it could easily justify half a point shift instead in December. Plus, the U.S. economy could be starting to see the impact of the first rate hikes, Moya pointed out.

“Today’s rally is impressive. Gold held the $1,620 level following a major pivot on rate hike expectations. Gold might have dodged the bullet here. Next week is critical for earnings season,” he said. “A lot of market potential for volatility. I am leaning towards bullish for next week. We could probably see the idea of the Fed downshifting supported.”

Moya is paying close attention to next week’s third-quarter GDP data, scheduled for Thursday. Market consensus calls are looking for growth to recover to 2.1% after two negative quarters.

“The GDP data is a big wild card. We are supposed to turn positive after a streak of two bad quarters. There is a lot that could complicate what happens here. The risk now is that something is breaking for the economy,” Moya noted.

From the technical perspective, gold is still in a downtrend, and the risk is tilted to the downside.

“Technically, we better hold in here, or prices could move down another 5% to $1,560, then to $1,470-80. That’s what is shaping up technically,” Walsh Trading co-director Sean Lusk told Kitco News. “But from a bargaining standpoint, gold saw a six-month-long washout after hitting a peak of above $2,000 an ounce back in March. When does it end? How much is enough before seeing stabilization?”

There is a risk that gold could drop another $100 before finding its bottom, Lusk warned. “The $1,620 level needs to hold near term — potential double bottom on charts. Investors have been selling into rallies. We’ve hit a near-term bottom, so I am bullish next week. But all bets are off going into the Fed meeting in November,” he said.

Gold is in uncharted territory for the moment, said Gainesville Coins precious metals expert Everett Millman, pointing out that gold is well below some key trading levels from earlier this year.

“It will be interesting to watch how quickly those higher rates bring down inflation. Even though higher rates are negative for gold, rates as high as 5% are still below the inflation level, which means real rates are still negative. So if the Fed pivots next year, we’ll see gold respond gradually,” Millman told Kitco News.

Another unknown to watch is China and its decision to delay the release of its macroeconomic indicators scheduled for publication this week, which included its third-quarter GDP data.

“China is being less transparent, delaying reports on economic data. I’m watching how long this delay is. If we go a month or more without getting data out of China, it could be a big red flag that drives additional safe-haven flows,” Millman added.

Next week’s macro data

Tuesday: CB consumer confidence, Yellen speaks

Wednesday: U.S. new home sales, Bank of Canada rate decision

Thursday: European Central Bank rate decision, U.S. jobless claims, U.S. Q3 GDP, durable goods orders

Friday: U.S. PCE price index, U.S. pending home sales

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Transat AT reports $39.9M Q3 loss compared with $57.3M profit a year earlier

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MONTREAL – Travel company Transat AT Inc. reported a loss in its latest quarter compared with a profit a year earlier as its revenue edged lower.

The parent company of Air Transat says it lost $39.9 million or $1.03 per diluted share in its quarter ended July 31.

The result compared with a profit of $57.3 million or $1.49 per diluted share a year earlier.

Revenue in what was the company’s third quarter totalled $736.2 million, down from $746.3 million in the same quarter last year.

On an adjusted basis, Transat says it lost $1.10 per share in its latest quarter compared with an adjusted profit of $1.10 per share a year earlier.

Transat chief executive Annick Guérard says demand for leisure travel remains healthy, as evidenced by higher traffic, but consumers are increasingly price conscious given the current economic uncertainty.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 12, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TRZ)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Dollarama keeping an eye on competitors as Loblaw launches new ultra-discount chain

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Dollarama Inc.’s food aisles may have expanded far beyond sweet treats or piles of gum by the checkout counter in recent years, but its chief executive maintains his company is “not in the grocery business,” even if it’s keeping an eye on the sector.

“It’s just one small part of our store,” Neil Rossy told analysts on a Wednesday call, where he was questioned about the company’s food merchandise and rivals playing in the same space.

“We will keep an eye on all retailers — like all retailers keep an eye on us — to make sure that we’re competitive and we understand what’s out there.”

Over the last decade and as consumers have more recently sought deals, Dollarama’s food merchandise has expanded to include bread and pantry staples like cereal, rice and pasta sold at prices on par or below supermarkets.

However, the competition in the discount segment of the market Dollarama operates in intensified recently when the country’s biggest grocery chain began piloting a new ultra-discount store.

The No Name stores being tested by Loblaw Cos. Ltd. in Windsor, St. Catharines and Brockville, Ont., are billed as 20 per cent cheaper than discount retail competitors including No Frills. The grocery giant is able to offer such cost savings by relying on a smaller store footprint, fewer chilled products and a hearty range of No Name merchandise.

Though Rossy brushed off notions that his company is a supermarket challenger, grocers aren’t off his radar.

“All retailers in Canada are realistic about the fact that everyone is everyone’s competition on any given item or category,” he said.

Rossy declined to reveal how much of the chain’s sales would overlap with Loblaw or the food category, arguing the vast variety of items Dollarama sells is its strength rather than its grocery products alone.

“What makes Dollarama Dollarama is a very wide assortment of different departments that somewhat represent the old five-and-dime local convenience store,” he said.

The breadth of Dollarama’s offerings helped carry the company to a second-quarter profit of $285.9 million, up from $245.8 million in the same quarter last year as its sales rose 7.4 per cent.

The retailer said Wednesday the profit amounted to $1.02 per diluted share for the 13-week period ended July 28, up from 86 cents per diluted share a year earlier.

The period the quarter covers includes the start of summer, when Rossy said the weather was “terrible.”

“The weather got slightly better towards the end of the summer and our sales certainly increased, but not enough to make up for the season’s horrible start,” he said.

Sales totalled $1.56 billion for the quarter, up from $1.46 billion in the same quarter last year.

Comparable store sales, a key metric for retailers, increased 4.7 per cent, while the average transaction was down2.2 per cent and traffic was up seven per cent, RBC analyst Irene Nattel pointed out.

She told investors in a note that the numbers reflect “solid demand as cautious consumers focus on core consumables and everyday essentials.”

Analysts have attributed such behaviour to interest rates that have been slow to drop and high prices of key consumer goods, which are weighing on household budgets.

To cope, many Canadians have spent more time seeking deals, trading down to more affordable brands and forgoing small luxuries they would treat themselves to in better economic times.

“When people feel squeezed, they tend to shy away from discretionary, focus on the basics,” Rossy said. “When people are feeling good about their wallet, they tend to be more lax about the basics and more willing to spend on discretionary.”

The current economic situation has drawn in not just the average Canadian looking to save a buck or two, but also wealthier consumers.

“When the entire economy is feeling slightly squeezed, we get more consumers who might not have to or want to shop at a Dollarama generally or who enjoy shopping at a Dollarama but have the luxury of not having to worry about the price in some other store that they happen to be standing in that has those goods,” Rossy said.

“Well, when times are tougher, they’ll consider the extra five minutes to go to the store next door.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 11, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:DOL)

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U.S. regulator fines TD Bank US$28M for faulty consumer reports

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TORONTO – The U.S. Consumer Financial Protection Bureau has ordered TD Bank Group to pay US$28 million for repeatedly sharing inaccurate, negative information about its customers to consumer reporting companies.

The agency says TD has to pay US$7.76 million in total to tens of thousands of victims of its illegal actions, along with a US$20 million civil penalty.

It says TD shared information that contained systemic errors about credit card and bank deposit accounts to consumer reporting companies, which can include credit reports as well as screening reports for tenants and employees and other background checks.

CFPB director Rohit Chopra says in a statement that TD threatened the consumer reports of customers with fraudulent information then “barely lifted a finger to fix it,” and that regulators will need to “focus major attention” on TD Bank to change its course.

TD says in a statement it self-identified these issues and proactively worked to improve its practices, and that it is committed to delivering on its responsibilities to its customers.

The bank also faces scrutiny in the U.S. over its anti-money laundering program where it expects to pay more than US$3 billion in monetary penalties to resolve.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 11, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TD)

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