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Gold prices holding gains as Fed holds rates low through 2023 – Kitco NEWS

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(Kitco News) – The gold market is maintaining its buying momentum as the Federal Reserve expects to keep interest rates at current levels through 2023 as they look for economic growth to pick up.

As expected the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged within its zero-bound range. Although interest rates are expected to remain low, the central bank is slightly more optimistic on economic growth through the end of the year.

December gold futures last traded at $1,972.10 an ounce, up 0.30% on the day.

According to some commodity analyst, gold prices are reacting to the fact that the Federal Reserve is committed to letting inflation run hot.

“The committee decided to keep the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and expects it will be appropriate to maintain this target range until labor market conditions have reached levels consistent with the Committee’s assessments of maximum employment and inflation has risen to 2 percent and is on track to moderately exceed 2 percent for some time,” the central bank said in its monetary policy statement.

The Federal Reserve did note that economic activity is picking up but still remains below levels seen before the nation was deviated by the COVID-19 pandemic.

“The path of the economy will depend significantly on the course of the virus. The ongoing public health crisis will continue to weigh on economic activity, employment, and inflation in the near term, and poses considerable risks to the economic outlook over the medium term,” the statement said.

Adam Button, chief currency strategist at Forexlive.com said that the Federal Reserve’s long-term outlook will continue to support the drive in equity markets as interest rates are expected to remain at current levels though 2023.

“For me, the 2023 forecasts are the real tell. They see 4.0% unemployment, 2.0% core CPI and still there’s an almost universal commitment to keep rates at 0%. That tells you everything you need to know about the Powell Fed. It’s a bonanza for risk assets,” he said.

However, he also said that he sees the gold market also doing well in this environment.

The following is a recap of the Federal Reserve’s economic projections.

In the latest interest rate projections, also known as the dot plots, the central bank’s median forecast is for interest rates to be around 0.1% this year through to 2023. The projections noted long-term inflation will come in at 2.5%, unchanged from June’s forecast.

Looking at growth, the Federal Reserve expects U.S. gross domestic product contract by 3.7% this year, up from June’s estimated decline of 6.5%. However economic growth is forecasted to be lower for the next two years. Economic activity is expected to increase by 4% in 2021, down from June’s estimates of 5%; the economy is expected to grow 3% in 2022, down from the previous estimate of 3.5%. In the first look for 2023, the central banks expects to see growth of 2.5%

The committee is also optimistic that it will see a lower unemployment rate for the next few years. For 2021, the unemployment rate is expected to hover around 7.6%, down from June’s forecast of 9.3%. The unemployment rate is expected to fall to 5.5% in 2021, and 4.6% by 2022, down from the previous estimate of 6.5% and 5.5%, respectively. By 2023 the unemployment rate is expected to fall to 4.0%.

The U.S. central bank is also forecasting higher inflation pressures to build. The projections show inflation rising 1.2% this year, up from the previous estimate of 0.8%; inflation is expected to rise 1.7%, up from June’s forecast of 1.6%. In 2022, inflation is expected to rise 1.8%, up from the prior projection of 1.7%. By 2023, the central bank expects inflation to rise to 2%.

Core inflation expectations, which strip out volatile food and energy prices, are expected to push to 1.5%, up from June’s forecast of 1.0%; for 2021 core inflation is expected to rise to 1.7%, up from the previous projection of 1.5% and inflation in 2022 is expected to rise to 1.8%, up from June’s forecast of 1.7%. The central bank expects core inflation to rise to 2% by 2023.

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Transat AT reports $39.9M Q3 loss compared with $57.3M profit a year earlier

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MONTREAL – Travel company Transat AT Inc. reported a loss in its latest quarter compared with a profit a year earlier as its revenue edged lower.

The parent company of Air Transat says it lost $39.9 million or $1.03 per diluted share in its quarter ended July 31.

The result compared with a profit of $57.3 million or $1.49 per diluted share a year earlier.

Revenue in what was the company’s third quarter totalled $736.2 million, down from $746.3 million in the same quarter last year.

On an adjusted basis, Transat says it lost $1.10 per share in its latest quarter compared with an adjusted profit of $1.10 per share a year earlier.

Transat chief executive Annick Guérard says demand for leisure travel remains healthy, as evidenced by higher traffic, but consumers are increasingly price conscious given the current economic uncertainty.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 12, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TRZ)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Dollarama keeping an eye on competitors as Loblaw launches new ultra-discount chain

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Dollarama Inc.’s food aisles may have expanded far beyond sweet treats or piles of gum by the checkout counter in recent years, but its chief executive maintains his company is “not in the grocery business,” even if it’s keeping an eye on the sector.

“It’s just one small part of our store,” Neil Rossy told analysts on a Wednesday call, where he was questioned about the company’s food merchandise and rivals playing in the same space.

“We will keep an eye on all retailers — like all retailers keep an eye on us — to make sure that we’re competitive and we understand what’s out there.”

Over the last decade and as consumers have more recently sought deals, Dollarama’s food merchandise has expanded to include bread and pantry staples like cereal, rice and pasta sold at prices on par or below supermarkets.

However, the competition in the discount segment of the market Dollarama operates in intensified recently when the country’s biggest grocery chain began piloting a new ultra-discount store.

The No Name stores being tested by Loblaw Cos. Ltd. in Windsor, St. Catharines and Brockville, Ont., are billed as 20 per cent cheaper than discount retail competitors including No Frills. The grocery giant is able to offer such cost savings by relying on a smaller store footprint, fewer chilled products and a hearty range of No Name merchandise.

Though Rossy brushed off notions that his company is a supermarket challenger, grocers aren’t off his radar.

“All retailers in Canada are realistic about the fact that everyone is everyone’s competition on any given item or category,” he said.

Rossy declined to reveal how much of the chain’s sales would overlap with Loblaw or the food category, arguing the vast variety of items Dollarama sells is its strength rather than its grocery products alone.

“What makes Dollarama Dollarama is a very wide assortment of different departments that somewhat represent the old five-and-dime local convenience store,” he said.

The breadth of Dollarama’s offerings helped carry the company to a second-quarter profit of $285.9 million, up from $245.8 million in the same quarter last year as its sales rose 7.4 per cent.

The retailer said Wednesday the profit amounted to $1.02 per diluted share for the 13-week period ended July 28, up from 86 cents per diluted share a year earlier.

The period the quarter covers includes the start of summer, when Rossy said the weather was “terrible.”

“The weather got slightly better towards the end of the summer and our sales certainly increased, but not enough to make up for the season’s horrible start,” he said.

Sales totalled $1.56 billion for the quarter, up from $1.46 billion in the same quarter last year.

Comparable store sales, a key metric for retailers, increased 4.7 per cent, while the average transaction was down2.2 per cent and traffic was up seven per cent, RBC analyst Irene Nattel pointed out.

She told investors in a note that the numbers reflect “solid demand as cautious consumers focus on core consumables and everyday essentials.”

Analysts have attributed such behaviour to interest rates that have been slow to drop and high prices of key consumer goods, which are weighing on household budgets.

To cope, many Canadians have spent more time seeking deals, trading down to more affordable brands and forgoing small luxuries they would treat themselves to in better economic times.

“When people feel squeezed, they tend to shy away from discretionary, focus on the basics,” Rossy said. “When people are feeling good about their wallet, they tend to be more lax about the basics and more willing to spend on discretionary.”

The current economic situation has drawn in not just the average Canadian looking to save a buck or two, but also wealthier consumers.

“When the entire economy is feeling slightly squeezed, we get more consumers who might not have to or want to shop at a Dollarama generally or who enjoy shopping at a Dollarama but have the luxury of not having to worry about the price in some other store that they happen to be standing in that has those goods,” Rossy said.

“Well, when times are tougher, they’ll consider the extra five minutes to go to the store next door.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 11, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:DOL)

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U.S. regulator fines TD Bank US$28M for faulty consumer reports

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TORONTO – The U.S. Consumer Financial Protection Bureau has ordered TD Bank Group to pay US$28 million for repeatedly sharing inaccurate, negative information about its customers to consumer reporting companies.

The agency says TD has to pay US$7.76 million in total to tens of thousands of victims of its illegal actions, along with a US$20 million civil penalty.

It says TD shared information that contained systemic errors about credit card and bank deposit accounts to consumer reporting companies, which can include credit reports as well as screening reports for tenants and employees and other background checks.

CFPB director Rohit Chopra says in a statement that TD threatened the consumer reports of customers with fraudulent information then “barely lifted a finger to fix it,” and that regulators will need to “focus major attention” on TD Bank to change its course.

TD says in a statement it self-identified these issues and proactively worked to improve its practices, and that it is committed to delivering on its responsibilities to its customers.

The bank also faces scrutiny in the U.S. over its anti-money laundering program where it expects to pay more than US$3 billion in monetary penalties to resolve.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 11, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TD)

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