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Goldman Sachs Here's What's Behind Saudi's Shocking Decision To Cut 1 Million B – OilPrice.com

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The first monthly OPEC+ meeting to decide on the group’s production ended with an unexpected, in fact shocking two-month agreement:

  1. Saudi announced an unexpected and unilateral production cut of 1 mb/d in February and March,
  2. Russia and Kazakhstan will instead increase output modestly to meet seasonal needs while
  3. other producers will remain at their January levels.

Of the three, the Saudi decision to cut production by 1 million barrels came as a shock to the market, sending oil sharply higher.

What has behind it? As Goldman’s commodity strategist Damien Courvalin explains, despite this bullish supply agreement, Saudi’s decision “likely reflects signs of weakening demand as lockdowns return, with our updated 1Q21 balance actually weaker than previously.”

That said, Saudi’s action and the prospect for a tight market in 2Q21, as the rebound in demand stresses the ability to restart production, will likely support prices in coming weeks, leading Goldman to reiterate its bullish oil view. As a result, the bank continues to recommend a long Dec-21 Brent trade (currently trading at $52/bbl vs. its $65/bbl forecast) and expect sustained backwardation and lower implied volatility. Courvalin also notes that “fundamentals do matter, but we see the recent recovery in refining margins and product cracks as premature and the best way to express the expected weakness in near-term oil demand.”

Here are more details from the Goldman note:

The most significant decision was Saudi’s pre-emptive measure to reduce output in the face of renewed lockdowns with OPEC+ production now expected below our prior forecast by 1.45 mb/d in February and 1.85 mb/d in March. Saudi’s decision surprised as global demand beat expectations in December on shallower and shorter EU lockdowns and resilient jet demand. Further, by allowing Russia to increase production, Saudi undermined its efforts since April to have every producer implement similar cuts, with the Kingdom solely taking a fiscal hit. Finally, by lifting prices to their highest levels since last March, Saudis risk extending the ongoing recovery in shale production, as WTI spot prices now at $50/bbl can allow for higher activity and positive free cash flows (although such a response would likely take time to materialize with producers cautious of further OPEC surprises).

This, according to Courvalin, leaves a large expected slowdown in global oil demand as the most rational explanation for Saudi’s cut, likely signaled through its term contract to Asian consumers where infections are rising quickly (Korea, Japan, South-East Asia).

Meanwhile, Goldman’s high-frequency indicator of oil demand (or lack thereof) suggests that the return of more aggressive lockdowns is already weighing on demand, and the bank is reflecting these headwinds in its balance, taking down January and February oil demand to 92.5 mb/d from an upward revised December demand level of 93.5 mb/d.

Separately, and from a geopolitical perspective, the transition to a likely less supportive US administration may also have led Saudi to adopt a more supportive stance towards other Middle East producers, as illustrated in both today’s unilateral cut and restoration of ties with Qatar.

As a result of today’s announcement, Goldman’s updated Q1 2021 balance is weaker than previously although, with prospects for a tighter market in 2Q21 as the Saudi announcement hints. This new OPEC+ path and the bank’s demand downgrade lead the bank to forecast a 1Q21 0.25 mb/d surplus vs. a commensurate deficit previously (only half offset by a tighter December). Importantly, OPEC+ March production level will still be low just as global demand starts rebounding sharply driven by warmer weather and rising vaccinations. This points to the group potentially struggling to ramp-up output quickly enough, with estimates currently reflecting a 1.3 mb/d deficit in April-July despite OPEC+ increasing production by 4 mb/d, a historically tall order.

On net, Goldman believes today’s outcome will help support prices in the face of demand risks given Saudi’s commitment to balance the market, and the potential for Saudi to cut more – now that they have tipped their hand – than demand actually disappoints, risks of a tighter 2Q21 balance and a growing consensus bullish outlook for crude fundamentals later this year.

Finally, for those asking, Goldman’s own year-end Brent forecast of $65/bbl is well above market forwards and consensus expectations.

By Zerohedge.com

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Roots sees room for expansion in activewear, reports $5.2M Q2 loss and sales drop

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TORONTO – Roots Corp. may have built its brand on all things comfy and cosy, but its CEO says activewear is now “really becoming a core part” of the brand.

The category, which at Roots spans leggings, tracksuits, sports bras and bike shorts, has seen such sustained double-digit growth that Meghan Roach plans to make it a key part of the business’ future.

“It’s an area … you will see us continue to expand upon,” she told analysts on a Friday call.

The Toronto-based retailer’s push into activewear has taken shape over many years and included several turns as the official designer and supplier of Team Canada’s Olympic uniform.

But consumers have had plenty of choice when it comes to workout gear and other apparel suited to their sporting needs. On top of the slew of athletic brands like Nike and Adidas, shoppers have also gravitated toward Lululemon Athletica Inc., Alo and Vuori, ramping up competition in the activewear category.

Roach feels Roots’ toehold in the category stems from the fit, feel and following its merchandise has cultivated.

“Our product really resonates with (shoppers) because you can wear it through multiple different use cases and occasions,” she said.

“We’ve been seeing customers come back again and again for some of these core products in our activewear collection.”

Her remarks came the same day as Roots revealed it lost $5.2 million in its latest quarter compared with a loss of $5.3 million in the same quarter last year.

The company said the second-quarter loss amounted to 13 cents per diluted share for the quarter ended Aug. 3, the same as a year earlier.

In presenting the results, Roach reminded analysts that the first half of the year is usually “seasonally small,” representing just 30 per cent of the company’s annual sales.

Sales for the second quarter totalled $47.7 million, down from $49.4 million in the same quarter last year.

The move lower came as direct-to-consumer sales amounted to $36.4 million, down from $37.1 million a year earlier, as comparable sales edged down 0.2 per cent.

The numbers reflect the fact that Roots continued to grapple with inventory challenges in the company’s Cooper fleece line that first cropped up in its previous quarter.

Roots recently began to use artificial intelligence to assist with daily inventory replenishments and said more tools helping with allocation will go live in the next quarter.

Beyond that time period, the company intends to keep exploring AI and renovate more of its stores.

It will also re-evaluate its design ranks.

Roots announced Friday that chief product officer Karuna Scheinfeld has stepped down.

Rather than fill the role, the company plans to hire senior level design talent with international experience in the outdoor and activewear sectors who will take on tasks previously done by the chief product officer.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 13, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:ROOT)

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Talks on today over HandyDART strike affecting vulnerable people in Metro Vancouver

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VANCOUVER – Mediated talks between the union representing HandyDART workers in Metro Vancouver and its employer, Transdev, are set to resume today as a strike that has stopped most services drags into a second week.

No timeline has been set for the length of the negotiations, but Joe McCann, president of the Amalgamated Transit Union Local 1724, says they are willing to stay there as long as it takes, even if talks drag on all night.

About 600 employees of the door-to-door transit service for people unable to navigate the conventional transit system have been on strike since last Tuesday, pausing service for all but essential medical trips.

Hundreds of drivers rallied outside TransLink’s head office earlier this week, calling for the transportation provider to intervene in the dispute with Transdev, which was contracted to oversee HandyDART service.

Transdev said earlier this week that it will provide a reply to the union’s latest proposal on Thursday.

A statement from the company said it “strongly believes” that their employees deserve fair wages, and that a fair contract “must balance the needs of their employees, clients and taxpayers.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 12, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Transat AT reports $39.9M Q3 loss compared with $57.3M profit a year earlier

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MONTREAL – Travel company Transat AT Inc. reported a loss in its latest quarter compared with a profit a year earlier as its revenue edged lower.

The parent company of Air Transat says it lost $39.9 million or $1.03 per diluted share in its quarter ended July 31.

The result compared with a profit of $57.3 million or $1.49 per diluted share a year earlier.

Revenue in what was the company’s third quarter totalled $736.2 million, down from $746.3 million in the same quarter last year.

On an adjusted basis, Transat says it lost $1.10 per share in its latest quarter compared with an adjusted profit of $1.10 per share a year earlier.

Transat chief executive Annick Guérard says demand for leisure travel remains healthy, as evidenced by higher traffic, but consumers are increasingly price conscious given the current economic uncertainty.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 12, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TRZ)

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