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Goldman Sachs Raises Oil Price Forecast Following OPEC Deal – OilPrice.com

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Goldman Sachs Raises Oil Price Forecast Following OPEC Deal | OilPrice.com


Tsvetana Paraskova

Tsvetana Paraskova

Tsvetana is a writer for Oilprice.com with over a decade of experience writing for news outlets such as iNVEZZ and SeeNews. 

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The agreement which OPEC+ reached on Sunday is modestly bullish for Goldman Sachs’s forecast that Brent will hit $80 per barrel this summer, the investment bank said in a note after the group agreed to start adding 400,000 bpd production each month from August.

For months, Goldman Sachs has been calling for $80 a barrel oil this summer, expecting strong demand recovery, despite expectations that Iranian oil could return legitimately to the market at some point, and despite the two-week-long stalemate within OPEC+ about how the group would proceed with oil supply management.

Last week, Goldman Sachs reiterated its $80 price forecast for Brent crude despite reports that Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) had reached a deal on oil production that would extend the OPEC+ deal until the end of next year.

On Sunday, OPEC+ agreed to extend the deal from April 2020 through the end of December 2022 and to add 400,000 barrels per day (bpd) on a monthly basis beginning in August 2021 and until phasing out all the 5.8 million bpd the group is currently keeping off the market, in light of improving global oil demand. The group also gave higher baseline production levels as of May 2022 not only to the UAE but also to Saudi Arabia, Russia, Kuwait, and Iraq.

“The agreement had two distinct points of focus: a moderate increase in production which will keep the market in deficit in the coming months, as well as guidance for higher capacity which will be needed in coming years given growing under-investment,” Goldman Sachs said in a note, as carried by Reuters.

The agreement that OPEC+ reached is a $2 per barrel “upside” to Goldman’s $80 a barrel call for this summer, as well as a $5 upside to the forecast of Brent of $75 a barrel next year, the bank said.

By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com

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Canada’s economy shrank for 2nd month in a row in May – CBC.ca

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Canada’s gross domestic product shrank by 0.3 per cent in May, the second consecutive monthly contraction as most industries slowed down.

Statistics Canada reported Friday that most industries shrank, especially construction, manufacturing and retail.

Even Canada’s red hot real estate sector shrank for the second month in a row. The real estate and rental and leasing sector was down 0.4 per cent in May after falling by 0.8 per cent in April. That’s the first two-month streak of declines since March and April of 2020.

“As housing sales and construction levels gradually return to more sustainable levels, this area of the economy could be a drag on growth in coming months,” TD Bank economist Sri Thanabalasingam said.

Agriculture and forestry, mining and oil and gas extraction, utilities and the public sector all expanded slightly.

All in all, the total value of all the goods and services produced by Canada’s economy was just shy of $1.98 trillion during the month. That’s still two per cent below the slightly more than $2 trillion that the economy was worth in February 2020.

The numbers for May come at the time when Canada’s economy was on the downslope of the third wave of COVID-19, and much of society was on some sort of lockdown or reduced capacity. But there are signs that a rebound has happened since.

Preliminary data for June suggests the economy grew by 0.7 per cent during the month. And July may have been even better — credit and debit card data suggests that consumers returned to spending on high-contact services including in-person dining, recreation activities and travel that had long been restricted to them, Thanabalasingam said.

June’s uptick means the economy will expand by about 0.6 per cent in the second quarter overall. That’s about a 2.5 per cent annual pace — much slower than the 6.5 per cent pace the U.S. economy clocked in the same period, but much better than the 8.3 per cent contraction seen in countries that use the euro.

Thanabalasingam said the data for May and June show just how up and down the economy may go from here on out.

“It may not be smooth sailing for the rest of the recovery,” he said.

“The delta variant is wreaking havoc around the world, leading to a retightening of restrictions in some countries. Canada has so far avoided the worst of this virus, but cases are rising in some provinces. A fourth wave could lead to another stalling in the recovery, though with relatively high rates of vaccination a full reversal appears less likely.”

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Canada’s Imperial Oil posts 7% fall in quarterly profit

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Canada‘s Imperial Oil Ltd reported a 7% fall in second-quarter profit on Friday, impacted by planned turnaround activity and weaker realized margins in its downstream refining business.

However, the company continued to post strong output from its largest asset, the Kearl oil sands mine in northern Alberta, which hit a new monthly production record in June.

Due to improved reliability Imperial is switching to one turnaround a year at Kearl, cancelling maintenance planned for this fall, and raised 2021 full-year production guidance to 265,000 barrels per day (bpd) from 255,000 bpd previously.

Like its peers Imperial has been benefiting from an increase in global oil prices, although fresh lockdowns and restrictions in some parts of the world to deal with rising cases from the Delta variant of the coronavirus have dented market optimism.

“We’re not out of the woods yet,” Imperial Chief Executive Brad Corson told an earnings call. “We saw another quarter of increasing commodity prices, but with continued slow recovery in demand.”

Calgary-based Imperial, which is majority-owned by Exxon Mobil Corp, said its net income fell to C$366 million ($294.16 million), or 50 Canadian cents per share, in the second quarter ended June 30, from C$392 million, or 53 Canadian cents per share, in the previous quarter.

Downstream recorded net income was C$60 million in the second quarter, compared with net income of C$292 million in the first quarter, the company said.

Total production averaged 401,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day in the quarter ended June 30, down about 7% from the first due to planned oil sands turnarounds.

Imperial’s shares were last down 3% at C$33.82 on the Toronto Stock Exchange.

($1 = 1.2442 Canadian dollars)

(Reporting by Sahil Shaw in Bengaluru and Nia Williams in Calgary; Editing by Krishna Chandra Eluri and Chris Reese)

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Your Cover Letter’s Third Paragraph — Getting the Reader to Act

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If you don’t ask, you don’t get.

 

In the 1992 movie Glengarry Glen Ross, Alec Baldwin’s character, Blake, gives a shape-up or ship-out speech to a group of real estate salesmen. He turns over a blackboard on which two sets of letters are written. One set of letters is “ABC.” Blake then shouts, “A-B-C. A, always; B, be; C, closing. Always be closing! Always be closing!”

 

To shorten your job search, envision you’re looking for your next client. Finding your next client is a sales process; therefore, you need to A-B-C. When you’re in A-B-C mode, you move through an employer’s hiring process much faster than passive job seekers.

 

A-B-C isn’t only for when you’re at the interview stage, intending to close the deal (obtaining a job offer). To get your network to inform you of job opportunities, get past gatekeepers, and especially to get that covenant interview, you need to A-B-C, which is why your cover letter’s last paragraph needs to be a call to action.

 

Here are 3 examples:

 

With my 15+ years of sales management experience, I know I can quickly get up to speed as ACME Inc.’s next Sales Director. I’d welcome the opportunity to speak with you regarding my qualifications. Next Wednesday, I’ll reach out to schedule a call to discuss my thoughts on who to raise ACME Inc.’s ROI by 25% before year-end. I look forward to speaking with you.

 

I’m inspired by Callister Inc’s success in supporting homegrown businesses. I have several ideas for marketing strategies to increase profitability among your customer base and how I can grow your reach. I look forward to the opportunity to share my thoughts with you.

 

I’m looking forward to discussing my skills and my 10+ years of international hotel management experience. I’ve several suggestions I’d like to pass by you on how Grand Budapest Hotel can increase its occupancy rate, a challenge all hotels face during the current pandemic. Please contact me at (555) 916-225-5887 or mary.smitters@hotel.com any time. I’ll be in touch next Friday to follow up.

 

Your closing paragraph needs to:

 

  • Be decisive. Decisiveness projects confidence, which is not to be confused with arrogance. Confidence is a massive turn-on with employers.Before the hiring manager can feel (hiring comes down to gut feel) you can do the job, they need to feel that you feel you can do the job.
  • Write to what you can do for the employer, not what they can do for you.
  • Offer a teaser. To use another movie analogy, think of Marlon Brando’s words in The Godfather, “I’m gonna make him an offer he can’t refuse.” This sets the foundation for what’ll be discussed and therefore puts you in the driver’s seat.
  • Mention you’ll follow up. (Then DO IT!)

 

The last point is a job search game-changer. Many career experts claim following up is overly aggressive. The way I see it, not following up makes you passive, which is a form of being lazy. I’m repeating myself; employers don’t hire lazy.

 

There’s been a few instances where I’ve been overwhelmed with resumes. Those who called me almost always got an interview. I can recall three times where I hired the person based on a “follow-up” phone conversation.

 

A few weeks back, a Regional Sales Director for a large pharmaceutical company told me when hiring a sales representative, he only grants interviews to those who follow up. This makes sense since sales success requires being comfortable making calls.

 

Bottom-line: Following up by phone will set you apart from your competition.

 

Of course, if the job posting says “No phone calls please.”, which is uncommon, you need to respect such instruction.

 

Regarding signing off, use any of the following:

 

  • Sincerely
  • Best regards
  • Sincere regards
  • Yours truly
  • Respectfully

 

As I’ve mentioned in an earlier column, there’s no universal hiring methodology. Don’t stress over small details, such as how to sign off. Throughout your search, focus on communicating how you’re able to bring results (value). Such focus will have you A-B-C.

 

If you’re wondering what the other set of letters Blake had written on the blackboard, they were AIDA — Attention, Interest, Decision, Action. This is what your cover letter needs to do.

 

______________________________________________________________

 

Nick Kossovan, a well-seasoned veteran of the corporate landscape, offers advice on searching for a job. You can send him your questions at artoffindingwork@gmail.com.

 

 

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