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GOLDSTEIN: Record low business investment threatens our standard of living, says report – Toronto Sun

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The growth rate of business investment in Canada from 2015-2019 — before the COVID-19 pandemic hit — was lower than in almost every other period since 1970, according to a new study by the Fraser Institute.

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Canada’s growth rate of 11.6% from 2015-19, was well below the average achieved by comparable industrialized countries belonging to the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development, which averaged 19.6%, and the United States at 19.7%, according to the study, An International Comparison of Capital Expenditures.

“Business investment is critically important because of its effects on economic growth and higher living standards for workers, but lately, Canada has experienced some of the lowest growth rates in 50 years,” said study co-author Steven Globerman, in a release accompanying the report.

“Given how important business investment is to increase productivity and raise living standards, the slow growth rate Canada is experiencing is alarming, particularly now as Canada emerges from the COVID recession. Improving the conditions that encourage more business investment should be a priority for policymakers across the country.”

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The study says that in contrast to the anemic growth rate in business investment in Canada from 2015-19, from 2000-05, it was at 44.8%, almost double the average 22.8% increase for comparable OECD countries, and substantially ahead of the U.S. rate of 26%.

Globerman, an economics professor, said it’s particularly worrisome that Canada’s decline in business investment is evident in two important categories examined by the study — machinery and equipment, and intellectual property products such as software — because both significantly affect productivity and living standards for Canadian workers.

The latest decline in the growth rate of business investment from 2015-19 coincides with the election of the Trudeau government in 2015, a year after the global crash of oil prices in 2014, which created a great deal of business uncertainty in Canada.

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But the study by the fiscally-conservative think tank says the situation has been deteriorating for years, during periods presided over by Conservative governments as well as Liberal ones.

It says the growth rate of overall business investment in Canada slowed dramatically from 2005-19, falling from 44.8% in the period from 2000-05 (Chretien/Martin Liberal government) to 25.1% from 2005-10 (Martin Liberal and Harper Conservative governments); 18.9% from 2010-15 (Harper government); to 11.6% from 2015-19, (Trudeau government), among the lowest levels in five decades.

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Canada’s 18.9% growth rate in business investment from 2010-15 (Harper government) was below the OECD’s 27.3% average increase and the U.S. rate of 35.1%.

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Similarly, Canada underperformed for the most recent period of 2015-19 (Trudeau government), recording a growth in business investment of just 11.6% compared to the OECD’s average of 19.6% and the U.S. rate of 19.7%.

The study says its findings lend weight to similar conclusions by many other reports in recent years, concerned “about the future competitiveness and productivity performance of Canada’s business sector compared to other developed countries.


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“Against this background, improvements to the environment for business investment in Canada should be a priority for federal and provincial governments …

“Certainly more favourable tax treatment of business income and capital gains is a priority for policymakers to consider against a backdrop of a slower-growing and aging workforce with the (associated) need for faster rates of labour productivity growth in order to accelerate real economic growth, as well as raise the standards of living of individual Canadians.”

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Economy

S&P/TSX composite down more than 200 points, U.S. stock markets also fall

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TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index was down more than 200 points in late-morning trading, weighed down by losses in the technology, base metal and energy sectors, while U.S. stock markets also fell.

The S&P/TSX composite index was down 239.24 points at 22,749.04.

In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was down 312.36 points at 40,443.39. The S&P 500 index was down 80.94 points at 5,422.47, while the Nasdaq composite was down 380.17 points at 16,747.49.

The Canadian dollar traded for 73.80 cents US compared with 74.00 cents US on Thursday.

The October crude oil contract was down US$1.07 at US$68.08 per barrel and the October natural gas contract was up less than a penny at US$2.26 per mmBTU.

The December gold contract was down US$2.10 at US$2,541.00 an ounce and the December copper contract was down four cents at US$4.10 a pound.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 6, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:GSPTSE, TSX:CADUSD)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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S&P/TSX composite up more than 150 points, U.S. stock markets also higher

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TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index was up more than 150 points in late-morning trading, helped by strength in technology, financial and energy stocks, while U.S. stock markets also pushed higher.

The S&P/TSX composite index was up 171.41 points at 23,298.39.

In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 278.37 points at 41,369.79. The S&P 500 index was up 38.17 points at 5,630.35, while the Nasdaq composite was up 177.15 points at 17,733.18.

The Canadian dollar traded for 74.19 cents US compared with 74.23 cents US on Wednesday.

The October crude oil contract was up US$1.75 at US$76.27 per barrel and the October natural gas contract was up less than a penny at US$2.10 per mmBTU.

The December gold contract was up US$18.70 at US$2,556.50 an ounce and the December copper contract was down less than a penny at US$4.22 a pound.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Aug. 29, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:GSPTSE, TSX:CADUSD)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Investment

Crypto Market Bloodbath Amid Broader Economic Concerns

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The crypto market has recently experienced a significant downturn, mirroring broader risk asset sell-offs. Over the past week, Bitcoin’s price dropped by 24%, reaching $53,000, while Ethereum plummeted nearly a third to $2,340. Major altcoins also suffered, with Cardano down 27.7%, Solana 36.2%, Dogecoin 34.6%, XRP 23.1%, Shiba Inu 30.1%, and BNB 25.7%.

The severe downturn in the crypto market appears to be part of a broader flight to safety, triggered by disappointing economic data. A worse-than-expected unemployment report on Friday marked the beginning of a technical recession, as defined by the Sahm Rule. This rule identifies a recession when the three-month average unemployment rate rises by at least half a percentage point from its lowest point in the past year.

Friday’s figures met this threshold, signaling an abrupt economic downshift. Consequently, investors sought safer assets, leading to declines in major stock indices: the S&P 500 dropped 2%, the Nasdaq 2.5%, and the Dow 1.5%. This trend continued into Monday with further sell-offs overseas.

The crypto market’s rapid decline raises questions about its role as either a speculative asset or a hedge against inflation and recession. Despite hopes that crypto could act as a risk hedge, the recent crash suggests it remains a speculative investment.

Since the downturn, the crypto market has seen its largest three-day sell-off in nearly a year, losing over $500 billion in market value. According to CoinGlass data, this bloodbath wiped out more than $1 billion in leveraged positions within the last 24 hours, including $365 million in Bitcoin and $348 million in Ether.

Khushboo Khullar of Lightning Ventures, speaking to Bloomberg, argued that the crypto sell-off is part of a broader liquidity panic as traders rush to cover margin calls. Khullar views this as a temporary sell-off, presenting a potential buying opportunity.

Josh Gilbert, an eToro market analyst, supports Khullar’s perspective, suggesting that the expected Federal Reserve rate cuts could benefit crypto assets. “Crypto assets have sold off, but many investors will see an opportunity. We see Federal Reserve rate cuts, which are now likely to come sharper than expected, as hugely positive for crypto assets,” Gilbert told Coindesk.

Despite the recent volatility, crypto continues to make strides toward mainstream acceptance. Notably, Morgan Stanley will allow its advisors to offer Bitcoin ETFs starting Wednesday. This follows more than half a year after the introduction of the first Bitcoin ETF. The investment bank will enable over 15,000 of its financial advisors to sell BlackRock’s IBIT and Fidelity’s FBTC. This move is seen as a significant step toward the “mainstreamization” of crypto, given the lengthy regulatory and company processes in major investment banks.

The recent crypto market downturn highlights its volatility and the broader economic concerns affecting all risk assets. While some analysts see the current situation as a temporary sell-off and a buying opportunity, others caution against the speculative nature of crypto. As the market evolves, its role as a mainstream alternative asset continues to grow, marked by increasing institutional acceptance and new investment opportunities.

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