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Gramercy sees value in buying up indebted China real estate – Financial Times

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Distressed debt specialist Gramercy Funds scents an “opportunity for experienced credit investors” in the cash-strapped Chinese real estate sector and has been loading up on property company bonds.

Founder Robert Koenigsberger made a bundle off Russian debt in the late 1990s and has played big roles in restructuring Argentine government bonds.

Now the $5.5bn investment manager sees parallels in China, where the value of property company bonds has plummeted since the giant developer Evergrande began missing payments on its debt last year. From zero exposure to the sector before Evergrande, Gramercy has built up to $200mn in corporate bonds and expects to buy more.

“Around 10 of the [companies] that we’re focused on definitely trade below an inherent value that we think that we can achieve by being a part of catalysing a restructuring in a reasonable period of time,” Koenigsberger said.

“It reminds me of the ‘good old days’ of emerging markets . . when it was more of a fledgling asset class,” he added.

Many analysts are valuing the sector’s bonds at 10 to 40 per cent on the dollar because that is what the companies’ assets would be worth if they defaulted and were liquidated.

But Gramercy has been talking to chief financial officers and believes they want to work out an agreement with their creditors. They just do not know how.

“There’s a real lack of experience of how to put Humpty Dumpty back together again,” Koenigsberger said. “Rather than detecting a lack of willingness to pay/restructure, we’re seeing a lot of signs of good faith.”

“There’s an opportunity for experienced creditors to come in with good ideas and leadership skills and to show the possibility to these CFOs . . . that there is a path to getting to yes,” he said.

Gramercy’s recent buying of Chinese property company debt puts it on the opposite side from some big financial groups. BlackRock, HSBC and Fidelity were among the fund houses that cut their exposure to the sector in March and April, according to Bloomberg data. In May, Goldman Sachs analysts sharply boosted their default predictions for the sector’s US dollar-denominated bonds.

Gramercy’s enthusiasm for Chinese real estate does not extend to some of the other big distressed markets. Gramercy is steering clear of Russian assets and it has already sold off the Ukrainian debt it scooped up right after the invasion at a steep discount.

“We are not convinced that there’s value in Ukraine at 35 [cents on the dollar] because the longer this conflict is unfortunately going on, we can all see not only the damage that has occurred but [also] . . . the massive costs that its going to take to rebuild the country,” Koenigsberger said.

Gramercy is wary of Ukrainian debt because it expects a postwar restructuring of Ukrainian debt will force bondholders to accept significantly less than face value. Koenigsberger said the situation reminds him of the 2010s when the G7 gave “extraordinary debt relief” to Iraq to help it recover from the war. Private creditors took an 85 per cent hit to the net present value of their bonds.

If Ukraine receives similar treatment, “How could a bond with an 85 per cent haircut be worth 35 cents?” he asked

Gramercy’s multi-strategy fund is down about 3 per cent for the year to the end of May, compared to a fall of nearly 20 per cent for JPMorgan’s emerging market bond index, people familiar with the results said. Last year Gramercy was up roughly 8 per cent, and the index was roughly flat.

The weighted average return for the entire hedge fund sector for the month of May was negative 1.1 per cent, according to internal analysis by Citco, the leading hedge fund administrator, which serves about a quarter of the market. The average return through the first quarter of 2022 was negative 3.2 per cent.

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Greater Toronto home sales jump in October after Bank of Canada rate cuts: board

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TORONTO – The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board says home sales in October surged as buyers continued moving off the sidelines amid lower interest rates.

The board said 6,658 homes changed hands last month in the Greater Toronto Area, up 44.4 per cent compared with 4,611 in the same month last year. Sales were up 14 per cent from September on a seasonally adjusted basis.

The average selling price was up 1.1 per cent compared with a year earlier at $1,135,215. The composite benchmark price, meant to represent the typical home, was down 3.3 per cent year-over-year.

“While we are still early in the Bank of Canada’s rate cutting cycle, it definitely does appear that an increasing number of buyers moved off the sidelines and back into the marketplace in October,” said TRREB president Jennifer Pearce in a news release.

“The positive affordability picture brought about by lower borrowing costs and relatively flat home prices prompted this improvement in market activity.”

The Bank of Canada has slashed its key interest rate four times since June, including a half-percentage point cut on Oct. 23. The rate now stands at 3.75 per cent, down from the high of five per cent that deterred many would-be buyers from the housing market.

New listings last month totalled 15,328, up 4.3 per cent from a year earlier.

In the City of Toronto, there were 2,509 sales last month, a 37.6 per cent jump from October 2023. Throughout the rest of the GTA, home sales rose 48.9 per cent to 4,149.

The sales uptick is encouraging, said Cameron Forbes, general manager and broker for Re/Max Realtron Realty Inc., who added the figures for October were stronger than he anticipated.

“I thought they’d be up for sure, but not necessarily that much,” said Forbes.

“Obviously, the 50 basis points was certainly a great move in the right direction. I just thought it would take more to get things going.”

He said it shows confidence in the market is returning faster than expected, especially among existing homeowners looking for a new property.

“The average consumer who’s employed and may have been able to get some increases in their wages over the last little bit to make up some ground with inflation, I think they’re confident, so they’re looking in the market.

“The conditions are nice because you’ve got a little more time, you’ve got more choice, you’ve got fewer other buyers to compete against.”

All property types saw more sales in October compared with a year ago throughout the GTA.

Townhouses led the surge with 56.8 per cent more sales, followed by detached homes at 46.6 per cent and semi-detached homes at 44 per cent. There were 33.4 per cent more condos that changed hands year-over-year.

“Market conditions did tighten in October, but there is still a lot of inventory and therefore choice for homebuyers,” said TRREB chief market analyst Jason Mercer.

“This choice will keep home price growth moderate over the next few months. However, as inventory is absorbed and home construction continues to lag population growth, selling price growth will accelerate, likely as we move through the spring of 2025.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Homelessness: Tiny home village to open next week in Halifax suburb

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HALIFAX – A village of tiny homes is set to open next month in a Halifax suburb, the latest project by the provincial government to address homelessness.

Located in Lower Sackville, N.S., the tiny home community will house up to 34 people when the first 26 units open Nov. 4.

Another 35 people are scheduled to move in when construction on another 29 units should be complete in December, under a partnership between the province, the Halifax Regional Municipality, United Way Halifax, The Shaw Group and Dexter Construction.

The province invested $9.4 million to build the village and will contribute $935,000 annually for operating costs.

Residents have been chosen from a list of people experiencing homelessness maintained by the Affordable Housing Association of Nova Scotia.

They will pay rent that is tied to their income for a unit that is fully furnished with a private bathroom, shower and a kitchen equipped with a cooktop, small fridge and microwave.

The Atlantic Community Shelters Society will also provide support to residents, ranging from counselling and mental health supports to employment and educational services.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 24, 2024.

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Here are some facts about British Columbia’s housing market

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Housing affordability is a key issue in the provincial election campaign in British Columbia, particularly in major centres.

Here are some statistics about housing in B.C. from the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation’s 2024 Rental Market Report, issued in January, and the B.C. Real Estate Association’s August 2024 report.

Average residential home price in B.C.: $938,500

Average price in greater Vancouver (2024 year to date): $1,304,438

Average price in greater Victoria (2024 year to date): $979,103

Average price in the Okanagan (2024 year to date): $748,015

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Vancouver: $2,181

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Victoria: $1,839

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Canada: $1,359

Rental vacancy rate in Vancouver: 0.9 per cent

How much more do new renters in Vancouver pay compared with renters who have occupied their home for at least a year: 27 per cent

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 17, 2024.

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