Great, the economy is growing again. But don’t think the U.S. is out of a danger zone - MarketWatch | Canada News Media
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Great, the economy is growing again. But don’t think the U.S. is out of a danger zone – MarketWatch

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The economy snapped back in May after a two-month coronavirus lockdown, but make no mistake: the U.S. is still in a danger zone.

The past several weeks has brought lots of good news about states allowing business activity to resume, several million people returning to work, and Americans getting out and spending more. Manufacturers cranked up the assembly lines again and many businesses welcomed back customers, albeit with masks, temperature checks and hand sanitizer.

See: Marketwatch’s Coronavirus Economic Recovery Tracker

The upcoming week will include more confirmation of an economic rebound, largely through improved consumer spending and rising orders for durable goods in May. It’s even possible that what’s likely to be the deepest, and shortest, recession in American history also ended last month.

See: MarketWatch Economic Calendar

Yet Wall Street
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is already putting May in the rearview mirror and watching closely for signs on how much of the momentum carried over into June. So far there’s reason to be anxious.

For one thing, coronavirus cases have surged in some of the states that were the first to partially reopen. Apple
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on Friday said it would close almost a dozen stores again in Florida, Arizona and the Carolinas where some COVID-19 hotspots developed. If more companies do the same it would be a setback.

“Despite the encouraging bounce in several sectors of our economy over the past month and a half, our economic future beyond the next few weeks will still largely be determined by the course of the coronavirus,” said Scott Anderson, chief economist of Bank of the West. “On that front, there is a troubling resurgence of new cases coming from more than a handful of states.”

Perhaps almost as ominously, the number of people applying for unemployment benefits is still topping 2 million a week.

What’s more, there’s been very little decline in how many people are getting benefits, known as continuing claims. Almost 28 million jobless workers were receiving unemployment checks in early June.

The frustratingly slow decline in new jobless claims and continuing claims suggests that a second wave of layoffs is hitting the economy now as companies get a better grip on the damage done to their businesses. More firms may be permanently layoff off workers after realizing that sales and customers won’t be coming back in the same numbers — or at all.

Read: Unemployment rate falls in 43 states in May, but still topped 20% in these states

If that’s what is happening, other key economic indicators for June are also likely to show less improvement in June than they did in May. The biggest cue this week is a report little known to the broader public known as the IHS Markit flash survey.

The Markit survey queries executives in manufacturing and the much larger service side of the economy to get a handle on how businesses are doing. In effect, they tell us whether business leaders are getting more or less confident.

The Markit surveys are almost certain to rise, but investors will pay close attention not just to the size of the increase but what executives say about the recovery.

See: Coronavirus update: 100 days since COVID-19 declared a pandemic, and U.S. has highest case and death tallies by a wide margin

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Liberals announce expansion to mortgage eligibility, draft rights for renters, buyers

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OTTAWA – Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland says the government is making some changes to mortgage rules to help more Canadians to purchase their first home.

She says the changes will come into force in December and better reflect the housing market.

The price cap for insured mortgages will be boosted for the first time since 2012, moving to $1.5 million from $1 million, to allow more people to qualify for a mortgage with less than a 20 per cent down payment.

The government will also expand its 30-year mortgage amortization to include first-time homebuyers buying any type of home, as well as anybody buying a newly built home.

On Aug. 1 eligibility for the 30-year amortization was changed to include first-time buyers purchasing a newly-built home.

Justice Minister Arif Virani is also releasing drafts for a bill of rights for renters as well as one for homebuyers, both of which the government promised five months ago.

Virani says the government intends to work with provinces to prevent practices like renovictions, where landowners evict tenants and make minimal renovations and then seek higher rents.

The government touts today’s announced measures as the “boldest mortgage reforms in decades,” and it comes after a year of criticism over high housing costs.

The Liberals have been slumping in the polls for months, including among younger adults who say not being able to afford a house is one of their key concerns.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 16, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Statistics Canada says manufacturing sales up 1.4% in July at $71B

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OTTAWA – Statistics Canada says manufacturing sales rose 1.4 per cent to $71 billion in July, helped by higher sales in the petroleum and coal and chemical product subsectors.

The increase followed a 1.7 per cent decrease in June.

The agency says sales in the petroleum and coal product subsector gained 6.7 per cent to total $8.6 billion in July as most refineries sold more, helped by higher prices and demand.

Chemical product sales rose 5.3 per cent to $5.6 billion in July, boosted by increased sales of pharmaceutical and medicine products.

Sales of wood products fell 4.8 per cent for the month to $2.9 billion, the lowest level since May 2023.

In constant dollar terms, overall manufacturing sales rose 0.9 per cent in July.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 16, 2024.

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S&P/TSX gains almost 100 points, U.S. markets also higher ahead of rate decision

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TORONTO – Strength in the base metal and technology sectors helped Canada’s main stock index gain almost 100 points on Friday, while U.S. stock markets climbed to their best week of the year.

“It’s been almost a complete opposite or retracement of what we saw last week,” said Philip Petursson, chief investment strategist at IG Wealth Management.

In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 297.01 points at 41,393.78. The S&P 500 index was up 30.26 points at 5,626.02, while the Nasdaq composite was up 114.30 points at 17,683.98.

The S&P/TSX composite index closed up 93.51 points at 23,568.65.

While last week saw a “healthy” pullback on weaker economic data, this week investors appeared to be buying the dip and hoping the central bank “comes to the rescue,” said Petursson.

Next week, the U.S. Federal Reserve is widely expected to cut its key interest rate for the first time in several years after it significantly hiked it to fight inflation.

But the magnitude of that first cut has been the subject of debate, and the market appears split on whether the cut will be a quarter of a percentage point or a larger half-point reduction.

Petursson thinks it’s clear the smaller cut is coming. Economic data recently hasn’t been great, but it hasn’t been that bad either, he said — and inflation may have come down significantly, but it’s not defeated just yet.

“I think they’re going to be very steady,” he said, with one small cut at each of their three decisions scheduled for the rest of 2024, and more into 2025.

“I don’t think there’s a sense of urgency on the part of the Fed that they have to do something immediately.

A larger cut could also send the wrong message to the markets, added Petursson: that the Fed made a mistake in waiting this long to cut, or that it’s seeing concerning signs in the economy.

It would also be “counter to what they’ve signaled,” he said.

More important than the cut — other than the new tone it sets — will be what Fed chair Jerome Powell has to say, according to Petursson.

“That’s going to be more important than the size of the cut itself,” he said.

In Canada, where the central bank has already cut three times, Petursson expects two more before the year is through.

“Here, the labour situation is worse than what we see in the United States,” he said.

The Canadian dollar traded for 73.61 cents US compared with 73.58 cents US on Thursday.

The October crude oil contract was down 32 cents at US$68.65 per barrel and the October natural gas contract was down five cents at US$2.31 per mmBTU.

The December gold contract was up US$30.10 at US$2,610.70 an ounce and the December copper contract was up four cents US$4.24 a pound.

— With files from The Associated Press

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 13, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:GSPTSE, TSX:CADUSD)

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