As the grim two-year anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine approaches, a new poll suggests Canadians’ engagement with the conflict is waning and support for Ukraine is weakening — especially among Conservatives.
A survey released Tuesday morning by the Angus Reid Institute says a quarter of Canadians believe Canada is offering “too much support” to Ukraine in its fight, up from 13 per cent who said the same thing in May 2022.
Conservative supporters are a driving force behind that result, according to the poll.
The percentage of Canadians who voted for the Conservative Party in the last election, and who now say Canada is doing too much to assist Ukraine, has more than doubled — from 19 per cent in May 2022 to 43 per cent now — according to the public opinion research group’s findings.
“It’s a massive jump,” said Shachi Kurl, president of Angus Reid Institute. “This has the potential to be something of a political Gordian knot for Pierre Poilievre.”
Sorting out the reasons behind the shift is largely an exercise in speculation at this point, said Kurl.
On the one hand, she said, there’s a longstanding tradition of support for the military among Conservative voters. That position may be in tension with Conservative support for small governments and lower taxes, she added.
“I don’t want to overemphasize it … but what is burgeoning, what is starting to sort of grow from out of the weeds into a fairly healthy seedling here, is this almost the Trump-esque, ‘Canada First’ mentality,” she said.
“That mindset of conservative is not representative of the majority of the Conservative Party base in the country, or the entirety of the base. It is a minority, but it is a passionate, vocal and growing minority.”
The poll suggests the belief that Canada is giving Ukraine too much is also growing among NDP and Liberal voters. The percentage of voters who think Canada is doing too much for Ukraine jumped from 5 to 10 per cent among 2021 Liberal supporters, and from 5 to 12 per cent among 2021 NDP supporters.
Poilievre says Trudeau is a ‘big talker’ on Ukraine
Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre blasted the prime minister’s record on Ukraine and talked about his own plans to make Canadian natural gas available to Europe.
Since early 2022, the federal government has committed more than $2.4 billion in military assistance and more than $352 million in humanitarian aid to Ukraine.
Asked at a news conference Tuesday if he believes the Trudeau government has given too much to the war effort, Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre said the prime minister “is a big talker and a little do-er when it comes to Ukraine.”
“He has made all of these announcements of hundreds of millions of dollars of different equipment that is never actually delivered,” he told a news conference in Montreal.
Poilievre vowed to donate to Ukraine tens of thousands of surplus air-to-ground rockets now slated for disposal, and to sell it Canadian natural gas to bolster its vulnerable energy system.
“That will bring money home to this country, while fighting an evil dictator who is invading an innocent country,” he said.
Foreign Affairs Mélanie Joly said her government will continue to support Ukraine.
“Poilievre has been talking a lot about and crying about the importance of freedom, but the reality we know [is] that he’s about freedom for some and not for all,” she said. “Meanwhile, the Ukrainians are fighting for their freedom and ours, and we will continue to support them for as long as it takes.”
An emotional debate about trade with Ukraine
The poll landed hours before the majority of the House of Commons passed an updated free trade agreement with Ukraine on Tuesday. Conservatives voted against it; they said they objected to the bill’s reference to “carbon pricing.”
The Liberals have accused Poilievre and his party of abandoning Ukraine. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has attributed the opposition to “American MAGA-influenced thinking.”
Poilievre, whose party has maintained a large polling lead over Trudeau’s Liberals for months, has said his party still supports Ukraine and its objection is to the mention of “carbon pricing” in the legislation.
Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre addresses the national Conservative caucus on Parliament Hill in Ottawa on Sunday, Jan. 28, 2024. (Sean Kilpatrick/Canadian Press)
“I really think it speaks to how pathologically obsessed Trudeau is with the carbon tax that, while the knife is at the throat of Ukrainians, he would use that to impose his carbon tax ideology on those poor people,” Poilievre said in November.
The trade agreement imposes no obligation on the Ukrainian government to introduce a carbon tax.
The Angus Reid poll suggests Canadians, by a three-to-one ratio, believe the Conservatives’ vote against the Canada-Ukraine free trade agreement will undermine Canada’s reputation on the world stage. Half of likely Conservative voters believe there will be no effect at all, the poll says.
Kurl said elections based on foreign policy issues are rare in Canada, but for the first time in months Poilievre’s opponents have something to talk about.
“He’s spent little to no time on the defence and it has enabled him to stay very disciplined in terms of message and stay very focused in terms of a relentless attack on the government. And I’m not saying that those attacks in some cases haven’t been cogent, or that they haven’t been the result of really a litany … of own-goals on the part of this government,” said Kurl.
“But, you know, for the first time we we may be seeing something that puts Poilievre on the defence.”
Canadians’ interest dwindling
The Angus Reid Institute’s survey suggests the number of Canadians closely following news of the conflict has dropped from 66 per cent in May 2022 to 45 per cent now.
“Overall, Canadians are checking out of this conflict,” said Kurl.
“And you can see that those who are less engaged are much more likely to also say, you know, we’re helping too much, we’ve fulfilled our commitments.”
The poll suggests Canadians remain divided on the role Canada should play in the war going forward.
One third of respondents agreed Canada should support Ukraine “as long as it takes,” while one-in-ten believe that support should continue for only another year.
Situation in Ukraine is ‘dire,’ says Joly
Foreign Affairs Minister Mélanie Joly, who recently visited Ukraine, said Canada will support the country ‘as long as it takes.’
Another 30 per cent are uncertain, while 20 per cent say they believe the war should end now with negotiations for peace initiated by Ukraine.
Just five per cent of respondents want Canada to end its support entirely.
The Angus Reid Institute conducted the online survey from Jan. 29 to Jan. 31, 2024 using a randomized sample of 1,617 Canadian adults who are members of Angus Reid Forum.
For comparison purposes, a probability sample of this size would carry a margin of error of plus or minus two percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
How thousands of Ukrainian men are trying to dodge the draft
Ukraine says it needs 500,000 more soldiers to fight Russia, but thousands of men have fled the country to avoid getting drafted. CBC’s Briar Stewart got rare access to the Moldovan border control unit tasked with catching men sneaking over the border and some of the men who fled.
OTTAWA – The New Democrats confirmed Thursday they won’t help Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives topple the government next week, and intend to join the Bloc Québécois in blocking the Tories’ non-confidence motion.
The planned votes from the Bloc and the New Democrats eliminate the possibility of a snap election, buying the Liberals more time to govern after a raucous start to the fall sitting of Parliament.
Poilievre issued a challenge to NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh earlier this week when he announced he will put forward a motion that simply states that the House has no confidence in the government or the prime minister.
If it were to pass, it would likely mean Canadians would be heading to the polls, but Singh said Thursday he’s not going to let Poilievre tell him what to do.
Voting against the Conservative motion doesn’t mean the NDP support the Liberals, said Singh, who pulled out of his political pact with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau a few weeks ago.
“I stand by my words, Trudeau has let you down,” Singh said in the foyer outside of the House of Commons Thursday.
“Trudeau has let you down and does not deserve another chance.”
Canadians will have to make that choice at the ballot box, Singh said, but he will make a decision about whether to help trigger that election on a vote-by-vote basis in the House.
The Conservatives mocked the NDP during Question Period for saying they had “ripped up” the deal to support the Liberals, despite plans to vote to keep them in power.
Poilievre accused Singh of pretending to pull out of the deal to sway voters in a federal byelection in Winnipeg, where the NDP was defending its long-held seat against the Conservatives.
“Once the votes were counted, he betrayed them again. He’s a fake, a phoney and fraud. How can anyone ever believe what the sellout NDP leader says in the future?” Poilievre said during Question Period Thursday afternoon.
At some point after those comments, Singh stepped out from behind his desk in the House and a two-minute shouting match ensued between the two leaders and their MPs before the Speaker intervened.
Outside the House, Poilievre said he plans to put forward another non-confidence motion at the next opportunity.
“We want a carbon-tax election as soon as possible, so that we can axe Trudeau’s tax before he quadruples it to 61 cents a litre,” he said.
Liberal House leader Karina Gould says there is much work the government still needs to do, and that Singh has realized the consequences of potentially bringing down the government. She refused to take questions about whether her government will negotiate with opposition parties to ensure their support in future confidence motions.
Bloc Québécois Leader Yves-François Blanchet hasn’t ruled out voting no-confidence in the government the next time a motion is tabled.
“I never support Liberals. Help me God, I go against the Conservatives on a vote that is only about Pierre Poilievre and his huge ambition for himself,” Blanchet said Thursday.
“I support the interests of Quebecers, if those interests are also good for Canadians.”
A Bloc bill to increase pension cheques for seniors aged 65 to 74 is now at “the very centre of the survival of this government,” he said.
The Bloc needs a recommendation from a government minister to OK the cost and get the bill through the House.
The Bloc also wants to see more protections for supply management in the food sector in Canada and Quebec.
If the Liberals can’t deliver on those two things, they will fall, Blanchet said.
“This is what we call power,” he said.
Treasury Board President Anita Anand wouldn’t say whether the government would be willing to swallow the financial implications of the Bloc’s demands.
“We are focused at Treasury Board on ensuring prudent fiscal management,” she said Thursday.
“And at this time, our immediate focus is implementing the measures in budget 2024 that were announced earlier this year.”
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 19, 2024.
OTTAWA – Treasury Board President Anita Anand has been sworn in as federal transport minister at a ceremony at Rideau Hall, taking over a portfolio left vacant after Pablo Rodriguez resigned from cabinet and the Liberal caucus on Thursday.
Anand thanked Rodriguez for his contributions to the government and the country, saying she’s grateful for his guidance and friendship.
She sidestepped a question about the message it sends to have him leave the federal Liberal fold.
“That is a decision that he made independently, and I wish him well,” she said.
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau was not present for the swearing-in ceremony, nor were any other members of the Liberal government.
The shakeup in cabinet comes just days after the Liberals lost a key seat in a Montreal byelection to the Bloc Québécois and amid renewed calls for Prime Minister Justin Trudeau to step down and make way for a new leader.
Anand said she is not actively seeking leadership of the party, saying she is focused on her roles as minister and as MP.
“My view is that we are a team, and we are a team that has to keep delivering for our country,” she said.
The minority Liberal government is in a more challenging position in the House of Commons after the NDP ended a supply-and-confidence deal that provided parliamentary stability for more than two years.
Non-confidence votes are guaranteed to come from the Opposition Conservatives, who are eager to bring the government down.
On Thursday morning, Rodriguez made a symbolic walk over the Alexandra Bridge from Parliament Hill to Gatineau, Que., where he formally announced his plans to run for the Quebec Liberal party leadership.
He said he will now sit as an Independent member of Parliament, which will allow him to focus on his own priorities.
“I was defending the priorities of the government, and I did it in a very loyal way,” he said.
“It’s normal and it’s what I had to do. But now it’s more about my vision, the vision of the team that I’m building.”
Rodriguez said he will stay on as an MP until the Quebec Liberal leadership campaign officially launches in January.
He said that will “avoid a costly byelection a few weeks, or months, before a general election.”
The next federal election must be held by October 2025.
Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre said he will try to topple the government sooner than that, beginning with a non-confidence motion that is set to be debated Sept. 24 and voted on Sept. 25.
Poilievre has called on the NDP and the Bloc Québécois to support him, but both Jagmeet Singh and Yves-François Blanchet have said they will not support the Conservatives.
Rodriguez said he doesn’t want a federal election right away and will vote against the non-confidence motion.
As for how he would vote on other matters before the House of Commons, “it would depend on the votes.”
Public Services and Procurement Minister Jean-Yves Duclos will become the government’s new Quebec lieutenant, a non-cabinet role Rodriguez held since 2019.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 19, 2024.
— With files from Nojoud Al Mallees and Dylan Robertson
