As the grim two-year anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine approaches, a new poll suggests Canadians’ engagement with the conflict is waning and support for Ukraine is weakening — especially among Conservatives.
A survey released Tuesday morning by the Angus Reid Institute says a quarter of Canadians believe Canada is offering “too much support” to Ukraine in its fight, up from 13 per cent who said the same thing in May 2022.
Conservative supporters are a driving force behind that result, according to the poll.
The percentage of Canadians who voted for the Conservative Party in the last election, and who now say Canada is doing too much to assist Ukraine, has more than doubled — from 19 per cent in May 2022 to 43 per cent now — according to the public opinion research group’s findings.
“It’s a massive jump,” said Shachi Kurl, president of Angus Reid Institute. “This has the potential to be something of a political Gordian knot for Pierre Poilievre.”
Sorting out the reasons behind the shift is largely an exercise in speculation at this point, said Kurl.
On the one hand, she said, there’s a longstanding tradition of support for the military among Conservative voters. That position may be in tension with Conservative support for small governments and lower taxes, she added.
“I don’t want to overemphasize it … but what is burgeoning, what is starting to sort of grow from out of the weeds into a fairly healthy seedling here, is this almost the Trump-esque, ‘Canada First’ mentality,” she said.
“That mindset of conservative is not representative of the majority of the Conservative Party base in the country, or the entirety of the base. It is a minority, but it is a passionate, vocal and growing minority.”
The poll suggests the belief that Canada is giving Ukraine too much is also growing among NDP and Liberal voters. The percentage of voters who think Canada is doing too much for Ukraine jumped from 5 to 10 per cent among 2021 Liberal supporters, and from 5 to 12 per cent among 2021 NDP supporters.
Poilievre says Trudeau is a ‘big talker’ on Ukraine
Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre blasted the prime minister’s record on Ukraine and talked about his own plans to make Canadian natural gas available to Europe.
Since early 2022, the federal government has committed more than $2.4 billion in military assistance and more than $352 million in humanitarian aid to Ukraine.
Asked at a news conference Tuesday if he believes the Trudeau government has given too much to the war effort, Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre said the prime minister “is a big talker and a little do-er when it comes to Ukraine.”
“He has made all of these announcements of hundreds of millions of dollars of different equipment that is never actually delivered,” he told a news conference in Montreal.
Poilievre vowed to donate to Ukraine tens of thousands of surplus air-to-ground rockets now slated for disposal, and to sell it Canadian natural gas to bolster its vulnerable energy system.
“That will bring money home to this country, while fighting an evil dictator who is invading an innocent country,” he said.
Foreign Affairs Mélanie Joly said her government will continue to support Ukraine.
“Poilievre has been talking a lot about and crying about the importance of freedom, but the reality we know [is] that he’s about freedom for some and not for all,” she said. “Meanwhile, the Ukrainians are fighting for their freedom and ours, and we will continue to support them for as long as it takes.”
An emotional debate about trade with Ukraine
The poll landed on the day MPs are set to vote at third reading on a bill to implement an update to the Canada-Ukraine free trade deal.
The Liberals accused Poilievre and his party of abandoning Ukraine when Conservative MPs voted against the bill in November. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has attributed the opposition to “American MAGA-influenced thinking.”
Poilievre, whose party has maintained a large polling lead over Trudeau’s Liberals for months, has said his party still supports Ukraine and its objection is to the mention of “carbon pricing” in the legislation.
Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre addresses the national Conservative caucus on Parliament Hill in Ottawa on Sunday, Jan. 28, 2024. (Sean Kilpatrick/Canadian Press)
“I really think it speaks to how pathologically obsessed Trudeau is with the carbon tax that, while the knife is at the throat of Ukrainians, he would use that to impose his carbon tax ideology on those poor people,” Poilievre said in November.
The trade agreement imposes no obligation on the Ukrainian government to introduce a carbon tax.
The Angus Reid poll suggests Canadians, by a three-to-one ratio, believe the Conservatives’ vote against the Canada-Ukraine free trade agreement will undermine Canada’s reputation on the world stage. Half of likely Conservative voters believe there will be no effect at all, the poll says.
Kurl said elections based on foreign policy issues are rare in Canada, but for the first time in months Poilievre’s opponents have something to talk about.
“He’s spent little to no time on the defence and it has enabled him to stay very disciplined in terms of message and stay very focused in terms of a relentless attack on the government. And I’m not saying that those attacks in some cases haven’t been cogent, or that they haven’t been the result of really a litany … of own-goals on the part of this government,” said Kurl.
“But, you know, for the first time we we may be seeing something that puts Poilievre on the defence.”
Canadians’ interest dwindling
The Angus Reid Institute’s survey suggests the number of Canadians closely following news of the conflict has dropped from 66 per cent in May 2022 to 45 per cent now.
“Overall, Canadians are checking out of this conflict,” said Kurl.
“And you can see that those who are less engaged are much more likely to also say, you know, we’re helping too much, we’ve fulfilled our commitments.”
The poll suggests Canadians remain divided on the role Canada should play in the war going forward.
One third of respondents agreed Canada should support Ukraine “as long as it takes,” while one-in-ten believe that support should continue for only another year.
Situation in Ukraine is ‘dire,’ says Joly
Foreign Affairs Minister Mélanie Joly, who recently visited Ukraine, said Canada will support the country ‘as long as it takes.’
Another 30 per cent are uncertain, while 20 per cent say they believe the war should end now with negotiations for peace initiated by Ukraine.
Just five per cent of respondents want Canada to end its support entirely.
The Angus Reid Institute conducted the online survey from Jan. 29 to Jan. 31, 2024 using a randomized sample of 1,617 Canadian adults who are members of Angus Reid Forum.
For comparison purposes, a probability sample of this size would carry a margin of error of plus or minus two percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
How thousands of Ukrainian men are trying to dodge the draft
Ukraine says it needs 500,000 more soldiers to fight Russia, but thousands of men have fled the country to avoid getting drafted. CBC’s Briar Stewart got rare access to the Moldovan border control unit tasked with catching men sneaking over the border and some of the men who fled.
EDMONTON – RCMP say a second suspect has been arrested in the killing of an Alberta county worker.
Mounties say 28-year-old Elijah Strawberry was taken into custody Friday at a house on O’Chiese First Nation.
Colin Hough, a worker with Rocky View County, was shot and killed while on the job on a rural road east of Calgary on Aug. 6.
Another man who worked for Fortis Alberta was shot and wounded, and RCMP said the suspects fled in a Rocky View County work truck.
Police later arrested Arthur Wayne Penner, 35, and charged him with first-degree murder and attempted murder, and a warrant was issued for Strawberry’s arrest.
RCMP also said there was a $10,000 reward for information leading to the arrest of Strawberry, describing him as armed and dangerous.
Chief Supt. Roberta McKale, told a news conference in Edmonton that officers had received tips and information over the last few weeks.
“I don’t know of many members that when were stopped, fuelling up our vehicles, we weren’t keeping an eye out, looking for him,” she said.
But officers had been investigating other cases when they found Strawberry.
“Our investigators were in O’Chiese First Nation at a residence on another matter and the major crimes unit was there working another file and ended up locating him hiding in the residence,” McKale said.
While an investigation is still underway, RCMP say they’re confident both suspects in the case are in police custody.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 13, 2024.
RICHMOND, B.C. – The Integrated Homicide Investigation Team says the 26-year-old son of a man found dead on British Columbia’s Sunshine Coast has been charged with his murder.
Police say 58-year-old Henry Doyle was found badly injured on a forest service road in Egmont last September and died of his injuries.
The homicide team took over when the BC Coroners Service said the man’s death was suspicious.
It says in a statement that the BC Prosecution Service has approved one count of first-degree murder against the man’s son, Jackson Doyle.
Police say the accused will remain in custody until at least his next court appearance.
The homicide team says investigators remained committed to solving the case with the help of the community of Egmont, the RCMP on the Sunshine Coast and in Richmond, and the Vancouver Police Department.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 13, 2024.
VANCOUVER – Mediated talks between the union representing HandyDART workers in Metro Vancouver and its employer, Transdev, have broken off without an agreement following 15 hours of talks.
Joe McCann, president of Amalgamated Transit Union Local 1724, says they stayed at the bargaining table with help from a mediator until 2 a.m. Friday and made “some progress.”
However, he says the union negotiators didn’t get an offer that they could recommend to the membership.
McCann says that in some ways they are close to an agreement, but in other areas they are “miles apart.”
About 600 employees of the door-to-door transit service for people who can’t navigate the conventional transit system have been on strike since last week, pausing service for all but essential medical trips.
McCann asks HandyDART users to be “patient,” since they are trying to get not only a fair contract for workers but also a better service for customers.
He says it’s unclear when the talks will resume, but he hopes next week at the latest.
The employer, Transdev, didn’t reply to an interview request before publication.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 13, 2024.
